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By Steve Adams | at
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krillin
Man, if Miller can bounce back, and Grienke can be at least partially dominate, this team may be pretty dangerous. What is everyone’s win prediction? I will go out on a limb and say 84 wins.
ffjsisk
I’m not touching a prediction for them. I was one of the idiots that though they’d be a playoff team last year.
krillin
To be fair, that was not a bad prediction. I would have guessed the same thing. But, Miller and Pollock happened.
theo2016
miller and pollock don’t equal 20 wins.
krillin
That is an excellent point. I did not mean that they could directly result in 20 wins. The Diamondbacks have added some other pieces as well.
DarkGhost
Pollock, peralta, Miller, owings, Herman, and Greinke, equals 20 wins
connorreed
Chris Herrmann is a 29 year old catcher who slashed .181/.249/.280 in his previous four seasons. He won’t maintain a .364 BABIP. His 1.3 WAR will decrease, if anything.
If you adjust Chris Owings’ line last year to 162 games, it adds 0.6 WAR.
If David Peralta somehow manages to stay healthy and productive and can put up a season like 2015, he’ll add 3.0 WAR.
Greinke posted a 2.3 WAR last season. If you take out his stellar 2015 season, he averaged 2.8 WAR a year from 2010 to 2015. He’s entering his age 33 season and pitching in Arizona. Even if we go with the most optimistic scenario, he probably won’t add more than 2.5 WAR.
Shelby Miller posted a -0.7 WAR last season and a 3.6 WAR the year before. However, most would acknowledge that 2015 had some degree of luck. If Miller were to make a complete comeback, it’d be realistic to expect a 3.0 WAR, for a net gain of 3.7.
AJ Pollock, if he stays healthy and can repeat 2015, will add 6.0 WAR or so.
So that all adds up to a improvement of about 16 wins.
But you’ll also have to replace Segura’s 5.7 WAR. Walker and Marte are high upside players, but definitely not guaranteed to replace that production.
So, if Pollock, Greinke, Miller, Herrmann, Owings, and Peralta ALL stay healthy the entire season and remain productive (which is unlikely to begin with), you’re still looking at a shortage of 10 wins at the minimum.
It’s a possibility. But A LOT of things would have to fall in place. Their other top players would have to remain healthy and productive all year as well. Their young hitters need to continue their success. Their young pitchers need to find a grove. Walker and Marte need to make big improvements. Miller needs to completely turn his career around. Greinke needs to have another career year despite his age. Tomas has to hit righties and lefties. They need to avoid any major injuries. They need to find reliable bullpen arms. And more on top of that.
I don’t see the team right now being in serious contention for a spot. I trust Hazen with the team, but I think they need to make some more additions before they look like a serious playoff contender.
TheMichigan
Nah their bullpen is trash with an uncertain rotation they will be below 500 again
chieftoto
It would take a lot of things falling together perfectly for them to hit 84 wins. I’ll take a guess and say 77.
TheGreatTwigog
If greinke and Miller can have full comebacks, the wins 88-90
dbacksrs
I’m a Diamondbacks fan, so I may come off as being bias, but had it not been for the injuries to their outfield, Greinke, Miller, Corbin, Lamb (to some extent), and Goldschmidt (to some extent) being inconsistent, and them trading away their closer, they would have been a lot better last year. Miller looked really sharp at times after the All-Star break, and with a healthy lineup, they should win a lot more games next season. I’m predicting (at this moment) 88-74
Blue_Painted_Dreams_LA
Same thing could be said about the Dodgers has Kersh, Ethier, Thompson etc 26 other injuries not occurred occurred they’d probably would have won more than 91 games.
dbacksrs
Totally agree.
KillahAC
Corbin to the Red Sox
Brixton
Why do the Red Sox need another middling lefty starter?
holecamels35
I’d love to see the Pirates go after Ray or even Corbin as a bounceback candidate. They can offer a few prospects in return and would be able to cheaply fill a rotation slot.
stl_cards16 2
Would definitely make sense for the Pirates. The Pirates strength to deal from is the OF, and I’m not sure that would interest the D-Backs. One of the controllable starters makes a ton of sense for the Pirates, though.
jamesa-2
The Diamondbacks are in need of another outfielder right now, especially after trading Haniger. Right now it looks like the outfield will be Pollock in CF with PEralta and Tomas on the corners and then Hazelbaker as a somewhat underwhelming 4th OF. But the reality is, even with hitting 30 HR in 2016, Tomas brought negative value to the Diamondbacks – his defense is just that bad.
If the Diamondbacks could move Tomas, it would free up significant cash, and they could then put in a solid outfielder, even if not a specatacular one. Having a quality starting corner outfielder though would make a ton of difference.
With Pollock and PEralata both missing all of 2016 and Tomas being a negative contributor, the Diamondbacks gave up over 10 WAR. Getting a true corner OF and getting healthy seasons out of the other two should go a long way towards righting the ship – still not to the playoffs, but significantly better by a fair margin.
dbacksrs
Tomas was horrible in the field, but his bat got us on the board last year. He’s too expensive for us to give up on or sell low, so I just hope that he can practice hard enough and get better on the field. He is young enough to make changes.
stl_cards16 2
Ray to the Cubs for Baez and a smaller piece would make sense for both teams.
AidanVega123
Uh…no.
slider32
Baez has huge upside still, he could be a 4 or 5 WAR player, no way they trade him.
dbacksrs
Ten years from now.. Cubs fans will be talking about the upside that Baez can possess while he’s playing in the Independent League.
bronxbombers
No way that’s an extreme overpay for Ray they didn’t even wanna give up Baez for archer much less for Ray
AidanVega123
Cubs most likely won’t give up Baez unless if it’s for a frontline starter and maybe not even then.
stl_cards16 2
Why? He’s an expendable 2-3 WAR player with upside for a little more. Using him to acquire a controllable, cheap middle of the rotation starter is exactly what the Cubs need to extend their run. Counting on the pitching staff to repeat the last 2 year could prove very costly.
A'sfaninUK
You are way off base here, there’s simply no way the Cubs move Baez, for so many reasons, here’s a couple:
1. He’s cheap on an increasingly-expensive payroll. Gotta cancel out Heyward somehow.
2. There’s this non-stat thing called “team lore” that exists. He’s a part of that teams historical fabric now after his postseason coming out party.
2a. Plus he’s one of the most marketable guys on the team. Every female who watched any of those playoffs fell in love with him, and cameras were always focused on him in the dugout. Plus his love of risky plays that he pulled off more often than not would put him at odds with many managers, but Maddon is not just any manager.
Bottom line: He’s cheap, good and getting better, his defense is unbelievable far beyond the 2-3 WAR you have him at – he’s going to have a whole bunch of 5+ WAR years in his future off mostly defense alone.
Lastly, the Cubs have so many tradeable prospects in Candelario, Almora, Jimenez, Happ, Caratini & Zagunis who could be moved for that cheap middle of rotation guy you rightly bought up. Do you honestly think Beane says no to 4 of those guys for Sonny Gray? He’d have Sonny on the first plane to Chicago if the Cubs offered that.
mdbaseball05
Yeah, Beane probably says no. He will likely wait until Gray pitches and builds up value. Even now, there is a lot of interest. If he builds his value up, he will be worth even more. Plenty of teams can offer more. Plus, Baez is expendable. They don’t have a full time spot for him, and he is probably overrated. He can definitely get you more than Ray (I think Odorizzi was a fair swap), but you’re going to have to give to get. Gray won’t be cheap. Beane will still want a return based on his potential and previous years. Otherwise, he will just hold onto him. He is not one to sell low.
stl_cards16 2
1. Baez can be replaced much cheaper money wise (internally: Happ) than that middle of the rotation starter can be.
2 & 2A. I don’t believe for a second Epstein and Hoyer are silly enough to build a team because of this. If they are, that’s too bad.
Lastly, I think it would have to take a package with Almora and Jimenez to land a good starter. I’d argue that those two are much more important to the future of the Cubs than Baez. Just a difference of opinion, I guess.
*For an unbiased opinion,I looked at some projections. Steamer has Ray at 3.4 fWAR over 168 IP, they have Baez at 1.9 fWAR over 581 PA for 2017*
A'sfaninUK
I disagree, I think 4 of Candelario, Almora, Jimenez, Happ, Caratini & Zagunis is what Beane would have gotten for Gray if Gray had a sub-3.00 ERA in 2016. Those are extremely good prospects and Almora is MLB-ready now and fills a CF need in Oakland.
I agree with you at Beane and Forst have said Gray will not be traded until the deadline at the earliest, but if that was the return on him, even at the deadline, that’s a decent one.
mdbaseball05
And you might be right about getting him back then for that package. But between the down year and the pitching market where it is, there is no reason to trade him now. If he rebounds even a little, he will be highly sought after at the deadline where there will be a lot of competition.
Nola Di Bari 67
Every female fell in love with him? I certainly wouldn’t put him in the even remotely handsome category.
stl_cards16 2
Yeah, I’m pretty sure Kris Bryant has the “pleasing the ladies” role of the team for the next decade. But I wasn’t going to get into a debate about that.
raykraft88
Beane would be smart to get a talent like Jimenez or Happ and a couple of other guys for Gray. He needs to cash in and get something for Gray to make up for the bad trades of losing Russell and Donaldson.
connorreed
I don’t think that’s a completely accurate description of Baez.
I think his versatility can be mistaken for “expendability”. He can play just about anywhere on the diamond, but he’s certainly not a bench or backup player.
He posted a 3.4 WAR (Baseball-Reference) in his first full season last year. That was despite dealing with his sister’s death, and he also showed major improvements throughout the season. He has an extremely high baseball IQ, unparalleled work ethic, and a lot of talent. I think the Cubs view him as a 4.0-5.0 WAR player going forward with an even higher upside if he can control the strike zone and make small improvements elsewhere. There are certain players that the Cubs FO is very, very high on. Schwarber is one, and I think Baez is another.
If the Cubs make a trade for a pitcher, I think they’ll go for someone with a better track record. Ray has shown flashes of dominance, but overall, he’s struggled in his career so far. I also can see them going all in for a front line starter (Archer, Quintana). They could also still sign Hill.
cubsfan2489
Let’s just set the record straight. Baez is not going anywhere for anyone. They will not trade him. They could put together a package of their minor league guys and get a guy like Sale, without giving up Baez. They will not trade him, so give up on the idiotic trade proposals!
seamaholic 2
You do know he doesn’t really have a starting position, right? There’s no way Zobrist should be in the outfield anymore. He’s a 2B. Where does Baez play?
They’re totally going to trade him. May not be this off-season, but they’re just driving up prices with his “lore” now. Dude’s about an average major league player, in truth.
stl_cards16 2
So the Cubs fans had me a little worried there was something I was missing, so I took a look at the unbiased projections of steamer for 2017. Baez 1.9 fWAR, Ray 3.4 fWAR. But I guess making a couple diving plays in October and smiling makes you more valuable.
mdbaseball05
Ha, I totally agree with this. I actually think Baez will be one of the first ones traded. My guess is he will go to the Rays for one of their pitchers.
basilisk4
Baez would be a heck of a lot more valuable if he learned to hit major-league pitching. The real question is whether the Cubs hang onto him a couple seasons longer to see if that happens or ditch him now while his value is relatively high. Some team will be willing to give up a lot for Baez in the hope that 2016 was a sign of things to come, not a showing of the top of his potential.
mdbaseball05
Yeah….that’s not true at all. No way you get Sale without giving up a top tier guy. You’re looking at Giolito plus from the Nats, Moncada/Benintendi/JBJ plus from the Red Sox, and it goes from there. Your Cubbies would likely have to give up someone like Schwarber plus more. You are overvaluing your prospects a bit. MAYBE if absolutely no one else wanted Sale or even called to ask about him and the Cubs had no competition.. But we already know that’s not the case since the Nats and others have asked. Sale and any other ace is going to cost you Baez plus.
Priggs89
No, they could not put together an all prospect package and get Sale. Unless you consider Schwarber and Contreras prospects since you want to keep Baez?
A'sfaninUK
“Wow, I can’t believe AZ did something smart, like trading for SP depth….now watch them immediately blow it by trading them away! LOL! Nah jk they seem to be run by smart people now.”
A text I sent playfully ribbing my Diamondbacks-following coworker a couple hours after the Walker trade…ugh.
cxcx
Why no blurb on Walker when he’s mentioned along with the others at the beginning?
ddempsey94
I wonder if the Rangers could get in on this
bradthebluefish
Arizona, combine Grienke with another arm and get yourselves out of that contract.
Kayrall
What would the Cubs have to give up to get Bradley?
Prozack
Alfonso soriano
oobleck
I’d flip Soler for Bradley in a second, maybe throw in a bullpen arm where the DBacks are thin, like Felix Pena. Soler could hit 30 homers a year in the desert. Bradley doesn’t have a place in their rotation any more, but he put up decent peripheral numbers last year and I’d like to see what Bosio could do with him.
basilisk4
I’m sure the Braves would be interested, but Dbacks management probably won’t answer Hart/Coppolella’s calls at this point.
hojostache
I am far from a Cubs homer (particularly about their prospects), but none of AZ’s young arms (MAYBE save for Miller if he has a bounce back ’17) is worth Baez. They have youth and control on their side, but they are all around 5ERA and none have shutdown stuff.
If the Cubs were looking for a young arm, I’m sure the Mets would consider moving Lugo or Gsellman as part of a package for a young cost-controlled fielder. Before everyone jumps on me…check out the stats, Give them a year and they’ll be the centerpiece for a top-end prospect.
Lugo: 5-2, 2.67ERA, 154ERA+, 1.094WHIP, 1.8WAR (in 1/3 of a season)…FA in 2022
Gsellman: 4-2 2.42ERA, 170ERA+, 1.276WHIP, 1.5WAR (in 1/4 of a season)…FA in 2023
Yes…a limited sample, but it was compiled in the MLB and during the hunt for a playoff birth.
oobleck
Both Robbie Ray and Archie Bradley have TOR stuff. Don’t be shocked if/when Baez gets traded this offseason. It’s a great chance to sell high, coming off a lot of positive exposure in the playoffs.
66TheNumberOfTheBest
Andrew McCutchen for Shelby Miller and a #10-20 prospect……who says no?
mdbaseball05
Probably Pittsburgh. Miller would probably return to form, but I don’t think they give up Cutch without it being for someone that didn’t pitch like Miller did last year.
ethanhickey
They go 77-85 next year and I think they could even do better if they dealt Greinke.
mnasser
the only way they should trade greinke is is they got 1 solid major league pitcher, and 2-3 really good prospects.
dbacktbone
While they should consider any and all proposals, I for one hope the pitching depth goes to the bullpen rather than the minors or undervalued trade offers. D-back pitching was so awful last year. I expect a bounce-back from the starters but right now don’t see anything promising in the pen (traded Clippard and Ziegler; Hudson a FA).
Seems like a couple of these starters would make nice RPs. If/when the need arises move them back to the rotation.
D-back optimist for the upcoming season, but if it looks like more of the 2016 same I’ll hope for a fire sale.