Email a copy of 'Arbitration Breakdown: Jake Arrieta' to a friend
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By Matt Swartz | at
Email a copy of 'Arbitration Breakdown: Jake Arrieta' to a friend
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digimike
Less than stellar 2016 campaign? Huh?
I guess you can’t argue with the numbers: 3.10 era over 197.1 innings. 18-8 with 197 strikeouts.
digimike
Less stellar… maybe.
Read this without my glasses the first time.
Mikel Grady
2-0 World Series 2.38 E.R.A. both wins on road. Should get 8.8 raise or more.
New Law Era
Should but won’t happen. The club is ripe with pitching depth and in the position of power here. In the interest of not souring a possible extension deal that they’d love to have (but do not need), they’ll probably come out with a $5MM raise offer hoping to settle right around $6MM.
ABCD
Jake’s beard, alone, should be paid $1MM.
Dock_Elvis
He shaved it….guess thats money lost.
chadkaboom
less stellar than his cy young season is what they meant
Brixton
Arb is based strictly on bottom line results, so his world series wins won’t really come into play too much, that said, Scherzer had a much better year prior to his 8.8M raise, 3 more wins, .20 ERA lower, like 30 more IP, 50 more K’s, 5 less losses.
He won’t touch Scherzer’s raise.
Mikel Grady
Regular season for flash World Series rings for cash
Regular season for show World Series rings for dough
egrossen
Overall, he had a pretty solid season. However, if people didn’t watch him all season, it’s easy to overlook how pedestrian his 2nd half was. He lost his control and was lucky to make it through 5 or 6 innings. June ERA-3.54, July ERA-4.88, August ERA-3.21, September/October ERA-4.60. By no means terrible, but he definitely was inconsistent and tailed off in the 2nd half. Solid pitcher, but not an “ace” at this point.
Dock_Elvis
Let him walk next offseason…someone else can pay the freight.
acm14
I know arbitration is mostly based on “traditional” numbers but is any consideration given to their relation to the league environment? Especially strikeouts which are trending up league-wide recently.
jonnyblah
So 2014 Samardzija was slightly better than 2016 Arrieta, yet Arrieta’s better but meaningless W-L record puts him in line for a greater salary increase? I understand it’s part of your very accurate model, but does that mean teams are still using W-L record as a major point in valuing pitchers?
brushbackmlb
Not to speak for our great author, but I believe, since arb hearings are heard by people who are not necessarily baseball experts, they tend to stick to the “easier to understand for the average person” stats. With that in mind, this is how both sides prepare their cases (since we are talking court/legal cases here). When it comes to teams pursuing free agents, they use their own metrics, which I believe, would not consider W-L records as much.
brushbackmlb
It seems fair and fitting that playoff stats would also be considered. Is this ever the case? Certainly, winning a WS MVP would be factored in, right? I understand that the thinking is that you use last year’s stats to predict next year, so would you also consider “the Cubs are still pretty good…he’ll likely be pitching in the playoffs again, so those stats are in play.”
Logjammer D"Baggagecling
Just give him 15.6mil. Not unreasonable. That will be his aav for the next 5 years. Hopefully its will the cubs. Scott Boras is greedy he’ll want 18-20mil aav for 7 years. He’s not getting more than 5 years unless its incentives and options
desertbull
I hope they ride Jake hard this season, win another ring, then let him walk. I hope they dont give him the 7 year deal he will likely get on the open market. Sucks that they will only get s 3rd round pick for losing him though.
Mikel Grady
He will get 7/210 from some team. Look at what is out there in free agency next year. Maybe cueto , Tanaka
Dock_Elvis
You think 7/200 starting in his age 31 season? The Angels are heading for the phone booth to change into their “Superstupid” costume right now.
Ortsac Nilrats
Can explain why they’ll only get a 3rd pick if he walks next year? Is this specified in the new CBA? Serious question, I haven’t kept up on how future compensation is going to work.
Blue_Painted_Dreams_LA
There is no longer 1st round pick compensation so if a team that signs him is over threshold they’ll forfeit 2nd and 5th and under threshold equals 3rd. Although it’s going to be interesting now that players can only be QO’d once. So hypothetically if a player has a decent not stellar season will they accept the QO only to enter the market without draft pick comp attached to them?
Ortsac Nilrats
What’s the threshold? Total dollars signed for or AAV? I got to think whoever would sign him would go over said threshold and in turn be worth a 2nd and 5th, no?