Daniel Hudson Rumors
It's not often that you see a well-regarded starting pitcher (or any well-regarded player, for that matter) appear on eight different teams prior to his 30th birthday, but that's the situation in which Edwin Jackson currently finds himself. Of course, Jackson inked a four-year deal with the Cubs that should give him some stability, but that's not his first stop in Chicago.
Jackson spent parts of two seasons across town as a member of the White Sox rotation from 2010-11. General manager Kenny Williams swung a midseason deal in 2010 that brought a struggling Jackson from the Diamondbacks to the White Sox in exchange for right-hander Daniel Hudson (23 years old at the time) and minor league lefty David Holmberg (18). It's been nearly three years since that trade occurred, so let's take a look at the players involved...
- Edwin Jackson: While he had thrown a no-hitter for the D-backs that season, Jackson was struggling at the time of the trade. He'd posted a 5.16 ERA in in 21 starts but was coming off a solid 2009 campaign and had one and a half years of team control remaining. Jackson turned things around with the South Siders in a big way. His K/9 rate soared from 7.0 to 9.2 while his BB/9 dropped from 4.0 to 2.2. Jackson contributed 1.9 WAR (per Fangraphs) to an 88-win season for the White Sox, but they came up short and finished second in the AL Central. He was terrific in the first half of 2011 as well, posting an even 3.0 WAR before being traded to the Blue Jays (who immediately flipped him to St. Louis) in a deal that netted Jason Frasor and Zach Stewart while also freeing the Sox of the remaining $7.2MM on Mark Teahen's contract.
- Daniel Hudson: Hudson ranked as Chicago's No. 3 prospect, per Baseball America, prior to the 2010 season. He'd struggled in three big league starts that year, but he was a revelation for the Diamondbacks down the stretch. In 11 starts following the trade, Hudson posted a 1.69 ERA, 7.9 K/9 and 1.8 BB/9, cementing his place in Arizona's rotation. He followed up that 2.2 WAR effort with an incredible 4.9-win sophomore campaign for the D-backs, but he was a Tommy John victim after just nine ugly starts in 2012. All told, Hudson has a 3.58 ERA, 7.2 K/9 and 2.0 BB/9 in 347 innings as a Diamondback. He's not yet eligible for arbitration and can be controlled through 2016.
The Minor League Side:
- David Holmberg: At the time of the trade, Holmberg was BA's eighth-ranked White Sox prospect, but he'd struggled to a 4.46 ERA in eight starts in the rookie-level Pioneer League that season. Holmberg has ascended quickly, however, and now ranks as the D-backs' No. 6 prospect according to BA and the No. 8 prospect according to MLB.com's Jonathan Mayo. BA notes that Holmberg is likely to reach his ceiling of a No. 3 or 4 starter in the Major Leagues thanks to his plus command and a very strong changeup. His fastball sits 88-91 mph and can touch 93 at times. Mayo notes that while Tyler Skaggs is the lefty who gets all of the buzz in the Diamondbacks' system, Holmberg "isn't that far behind him." Holmberg reached Double-A as a 20-year-old in 2012 and made 15 solid starts. Now 21 years of age, he's opened the 2013 season at the same level and sports a 3.10 ERA 6.3 K/9 and 2.3 BB/9 in 151 career Double-A innings.
Three years later, it looks like the Diamondbacks got a very good return for a talented but struggling starter. It's conceivable that within the next two seasons, 40 percent of Arizona's rotation will consist of the two players they received in this deal. Jerry Dipoto, the D-backs' GM at the time of the trade (he's now GM of the Angels), did well to secure a pair of prospects who ranked in Chicago's Top 10.
The price Chicago paid doesn't seem crazy either, given Jackson's terrific results with the White Sox. Jackson gave them 4.9 wins above replacement, but most fans will look back on this trade in a negative light due to the lack of return for Jackson when they traded him a year later. That's a fair criticism (and also a trade for another post), but Jackson was every bit the pitcher the White Sox were hoping he'd be when they acquired him. This would probably go down as a win-win had the Sox contended in 2011 or made the playoffs in 2010.
Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.
Diamondbacks starter Daniel Hudson amassed 25 victories and a 3.19 ERA across 336 innings well before he reached even two years in big league service time. Last year he underwent Tommy John surgery, from which he's aiming to return around the All-Star break. Last month, I spoke to Hudson about his choice of agent, Andrew Lowenthal of Proformance.
On how he chose Lowenthal:
In '08 I think he had gotten my number from a previous player I had played with. He contacted me and we met a couple times, and before I went to the Cape Cod League in '07 I pretty much told him, "Hey I just wanted to let you know, I'm probably going to use you." Andrew and I kind of clicked, so it was a pretty easy decision for me to make at the time. I felt like he really wanted me, and I feel like he made a really concerted effort to come down and see me pitch. He would make an effort to call or text me after every single start, and basically just see how I was doing.
On how it went leading up to the draft in '08:
I don't really know much about his aspect of what he does. He does his best to explain everything to me, and I trust him enough to tell him, "I trust your expertise and what you know about this game, and I trust you to make a good decision on my behalf." He obviously kept me informed about all the negotiations and all the conversations he had with the White Sox, and I just let do his thing because I obviously didn't know what the heck was going on. It was fairly painless. A week and a half later I was on a plane to Great Falls, Montana to sign my contract.
On talking to Andrew about going year-to-year versus doing a long-term extension:
He laid it all out on the table. He's very good at giving me comparables as far as where I am in my career to where certain guys were at the same point in their careers and what contracts they signed and when they signed them. Before every season he gives me these thick notebooks and explains to me where I'm at in my market level with all the other guys. Obviously going year-to-year is a little bit more risky, but you can make a little bit more money in the long run. Or you can go for the security, if the team is willing to offer you an extension before you hit arbitration. He's very good and very open at giving me his opinion, but at the same time he wasn't for or against either one too strongly. So if the Diamondbacks offered me a contract last year and he didn't think it was a good deal but I wanted the security, he would not pressure me to not sign it.
Did the Diamondbacks throw anything out there before last season?
We talked. We had short conversations, but I don't really want to get into the number aspect of it.
On Andrew's involvement in Daniel's recovery from Tommy John surgery:
I feel like I couldn't have picked a better agent to feel like I still mattered even though I'm on the DL. I never felt like I wasn't getting attention because I was on the DL and going to miss 12 months.
On recommending Andrew to other players:
We have conversations about that from time to time, with different teammates and stuff. Sometimes you get to the point where some guys are like, "I'm really not liking my situation, I'm thinking about throwing my name back out there and seeing if any other agents bite." I know I've gotten Andrew meetings with a couple different guys I've played with, and once those guys saw what Andrew does for me and how helpful he is with me and my family, they want more of a personal relationship, which is what I have with Andrew at this point. I consider him more of a friend that handles my baseball stuff more than my agent. If guys like that, I flip them Andrew's number and let him take care of it from there.
Does a small agency offer an advantage over a big one?
I think so. It's human nature - the more clients a guy has, the less time he has to take care of you or talk to you. Especially with a smaller agency they don't have that many guys, I feel like at any point in time I can call any single one of them and I'll never get their voicemail. I feel like I'm just as important as the guys that are making $15MM for them.
Check out our other interviews in the Why I Chose My Agency series with Shaun Marcum, Mark DeRosa, Ted Lilly, Ryan Ludwick, Cody Ross, Aramis Ramirez, Adam Wainwright, Jeremy Affeldt, David Wright, Jay Bruce, Matt Holliday, Jamey Carroll and Jake Odorizzi.
The Rockies have never lost 100 games and despite a disappointing season that has them last in the NL West, they'll likely avoid the 100-loss threshold again in 2012. Here's the latest from their division...
- The Diamondbacks offered Daniel Hudson a contract extension this spring, but didn’t make Ian Kennedy an offer, Nick Piecoro of the Arizona Republic reports. GM Kevin Towers approached both pitchers and expressed interest in discussing long-term contracts. They were instructed to have their agents call Towers if they were interested. Hudson’s agent, Andrew Lowenthal of Proformance, called, but Kennedy’s agent, Scott Boras, did not. “I never heard anything from that, and I took that to mean [Kennedy and Boras] didn’t have interest,” Towers said.
- The Dodgers’ starting pitchers have an assortment of health issues, so the team could find itself spending on free agent pitching this offseason, Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports writes. The Dodgers won’t rely on prospects in 2013, so their “only choice is to spend and spend some more.” Zack Greinke wasn’t one of the team’s midseason targets, but he could appeal to GM Ned Colletti as a free agent.
The Diamondbacks enjoy a night off before beginning a weekend interleague series with their rather frequent trade partners, the Athletics. Here's the latest from the desert...
- In the wake of D'Backs managing partner Ken Kendrick's critical comments on Tuesday, Stephen Drew told MLB.com's Steve Gilbert that while he "understands Ken's frustration," the shortstop was "disappointed that he questioned my integrity." Drew said he has been diligently pursuing his rehab and wants to be back on the field as soon as possible. "I want to be able to play the game that I've loved my whole life again. No one wants me to be out there more than me. I'm doing everything in my power," Drew said.
- Arizona CEO Derrick Hall addressed a number of topics in a chat with fans on MLB.com, including Kendrick's comments, a possible Trevor Bauer callup and the possibility of signing Ian Kennedy and Daniel Hudson to contract extensions. "We have discussions regularly about long-term deals with some of our pitchers. It is to our advantage to lock some of these guys down longer term to keep this group intact," Hall said. The club explored such deals last winter but couldn't get anything finalized before Opening Day.
- GM Kevin Towers says it's too early for the Snakes to give up and explore trading veteran players, reports MLB.com's Steve Gilbert. "I'm always looking at trades, regardless of we're winning or losing or where we're at," Towers said. "I'm looking not only in the near future, but long term as well. I've already kicked some tires on some things. I'm not saying anything is close, but you're always looking, always keeping an eye on down below where your depth is."
- MLBTR's Ben Nicholson-Smith collected another batch of Diamondbacks notes earlier today.
The Diamondbacks have an eviable amount of young pitching both at the Major League and minor league level, but don't expect two those young arms to sign long-term contract extensions anytime soon. GM Kevin Towers told reporters (including Nick Piecoro of The Arizona Republic) that he doesn't expect to get deals done with Ian Kennedy or Daniel Hudson (Twitter links).
"I don't anticipate anything happening with them before the start of the season," said the GM according to Jack Magruder of FOXSportsArizona.com (on Twitter).
Kennedy, 27, currently has a better case for a large payday than the 25-year-old Hudson thanks to his 21-win season and fourth place finish in the NL Cy Young voting last year. Advanced metrics see very little difference between the two, however. Kennedy had a 2.88 ERA in 2011 but a 3.22 FIP and 5.0 WAR in 222 innings. Hudson's 3.49 ERA was backed by a 3.28 FIP and 4.9 WAR in the exact same number of innings, 222.
Towers said he might look into extensions for his two young hurlers earlier this month. Kennedy is under team control through 2015, Hudson through 2016. We've looked at both players as extension candidates in the past.
Here's a look at some items from around the league on this Friday evening..
- Catcher Jason Varitek hopes to remain with the Red Sox in some capacity, but it may take him some time to determine an appropriate role, writes Jerry Spar of WEEI.com.
- When Kevin Towers was asked specifically about extensions for Ian Kennedy and Daniel Hudson, the Diamondbacks GM didn’t nix the idea, writes Nick Piecoro of The Arizona Republic. Towers hasn’t talked to the agents for either player yet but suggested that he might feel them out to see if there is interest in a long-term deal.
- The Angels' Mark Trumbo has been the subject of trade rumors for the bulk of the offseason, but the slugger appears to be settling in at third base nicely, writes Alden Gonzalez of MLB.com. A January poll showed that MLBTR readers think that the Halos should look to deal Kendrys Morales before Trumbo.
- Jeff Suppan wants to pitch for as long as he can, but isn't yet sure if that will extend beyond 2012, writes Bill Center of the San Diego Union-Tribune. The veteran inked a minor league deal with the Padres this winter.
- Craig Kimbrel’s salary is the highest ever for a Braves player with less than two years of service time but the pitcher is well worth it, writes David O'Brien of the Atlanta Journal-Constitution. Winning the National League Rookie of the Year and receiving votes for Cy Young and Rolaids Relief Man awards took Kimbrel’s salary from $419K in 2011 to $590K in 2012.
The Diamondbacks' Daniel Hudson has a sweet resume for a starting pitcher with one year and 117 days of Major League service time. He's already racked up 336 career innings (222 last year) and also has 25 wins and a 3.19 ERA. What are his extension prospects?
As I showed in my Madison Bumgarner post, pitchers with less than two years of service time don't get big bucks on extensions. Hudson and Bumgarner currently have much better bodies of work than James Shields, Ubaldo Jimenez, Brett Anderson, and Wade Davis did, but they probably couldn't push the guaranteed money much past $15MM by signing now. Instead, Hudson and Bumgarner may attempt to set a new standard for pitchers with between two and three years of service, one year from now.
The two-to-three record holder is Gio Gonzalez, who flew past the standard $30MM extension by getting a $42MM guarantee from the Nationals. However, Gonzalez is not a good comparison for Hudson, as the former was a Super Two. Hudson won't be. The Proformance client will go to arbitration three times, beginning with the 2014 season.
The typical 2+ pitcher extension is a four-year, $30MM deal, signed by Jon Lester, Clay Buchholz, Yovani Gallardo, Trevor Cahill, and Ricky Romero. These deals included one or two club options. Hudson will match this group in service time after the 2012 season, but he already matches them in overall statistics. Hudson already has more innings and wins than Gallardo did and more strikeouts than Lester or Cahill. If Hudson reaches his 2012 Bill James projections, he'll have at least a 185 inning, 11 win, 141 strikeout, and significant ERA advantage over any of those 2+ peers. Hudson and Bumgarner will likely be in a class by themselves, and if they sign extensions a year from now they ought to be able to raise the bar to $40MM over five years for non-Super Two 2+ pitchers.
Photo courtesy of Icon SMI.
A few items of note on Friday night as Derek Lowe's bid for the Majors' second no-hitter of the week falls by the wayside ...
- Rangers prospect Leonys Martin can opt out of his five-year contract and choose to go through the arbitration process if he has enough service time to qualify for arbitration before the contract expires, MLBTR has learned. Martin, 23, is a Cuban defector whose deal with Texas became official on Tuesday.
- Angels reliever Jason Bulger, who was designated for assignment on April 27, cleared waivers and accepted an assignment to Triple-A Salt Lake, tweets Mike DiGiovanna of the Los Angeles Times.
- Diamondbacks right-hander Daniel Hudson was part of the ill-fated trade between the Padres and White Sox in May 2009 that was vetoed by Jake Peavy, according to Dan Hayes of the North County Times (via Twitter). Peavy later accepted a trade to the South Siders at that season's deadline, but that package did not include Hudson. Instead, Clayton Richard, Aaron Poreda, Dexter Carter and Adam Russell went to the Friars. Hudson was later dealt to Arizona at the 2010 trade deadline in exchange for Edwin Jackson.
- The current collective bargaining agreement is set to expire at season's end, and hard-slotting for draft picks could be implemented in the new CBA, writes Jonathan Mayo of MLB.com. Hard-slotting would affix a set price to each draft pick and preclude drafted prep players from using the threat of going to college as bargaining leverage. One scouting director told Mayo he expects to see more players sign this year since it could be their last chance to negotiate a hefty signing bonus.
In a ceremony today at the White House for winners of the Presidential Medal Of Freedom, President Obama described Cardinals legend Stan Musial as "an icon, untarnished, a beloved pillar of the community, a gentleman you would want your kids to emulate." Congratulations to Musial for adding this prestigious award to his overflowing list of lifetime achievements.
Let's look at the middle of the baseball map for news from the NL and AL Central divisions...
- Tony La Russa is facing sharp criticism over his comments that the MLBPA was pressuring Albert Pujols to sign a record-setting contract. Jeff Passan of Yahoo Sports calls La Russa's statement "excessive and nonsensical." Agent Scott Boras, speaking to Jim Duquette and Kevin Kennedy on MLB Network Radio today, said La Russa's comments were "really not well thought out" and lacking in evidence.
- Boras noted that he hasn't spoken "at length" with his client Matt Holliday about Holliday's recent statement that he would consider deferring money from his own contract if it meant St. Louis could keep Pujols. "Matt is very generous and Matt really wants the best for his team and he wants to win," Boras said. Thanks to Andrew FitzPatrick of SiriusXM for providing a transcript of Boras' interview.
- Ed Wade discussed Hunter Pence's leadership abilities, his club's bullpen depth, Brett Wallace's opportunity to win an everyday job and other Astros topics in a media Q&A session. MLB.com's Brian McTaggart has the partial transcript.
- Braden Looper tells MLB.com's Carrie Muskat that he would've retired if he hadn't been signed by the Cubs, since he and his family live in the Chicago area. Looper expressed his interest in pitching for the Cubs last winter and sat out the 2010 season after not finding an acceptable contract.
- Chris Antonetti says the chances of the Indians acquiring another starter are "slim," tweets Paul Hoynes of the Cleveland Plain Dealer.
- Also from Hoynes, Orlando Cabrera's deal with the Tribe will become official once the infielder passes a physical over the next two days.
- Daniel Hudson talks to Mark Gonzales of the Chicago Tribune about the deal that sent the young right-hander from the White Sox to the Diamondbacks last summer.
- The Royals finalized their $300K contract with Dominican pitcher Darwin Castillo, reports Bob Dutton of the Kansas City Star. The team has yet to determine if the 6'5" right-hander will go to the Arizona Rookie League or pitch for the Royals' Dominican academy.
As major league teams unveil their 2011 schedules, here are some news items....
- As Daniel Hudson improves to 6-1 with a 1.67 ERA as a Diamondback tonight, Tom Haudricourt of the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel tweets that Hudson "probably" could have been a Brewer had Milwaukee accepted a one-for-one offer from Chicago for Prince Fielder. The problem at the time was that the Brewers projected Hudson as only a third or fourth starter and wanted more for their slugger. Obviously hindsight is 20/20 on any missed trade, but if Hudson continues to pitch well in Arizona, it will put even more pressure on the Brewers to get a big return back if they do end up dealing Fielder.
- An anonymous NL official tells Newsday's Ken Davidoff that Jose Reyes could command "one really good prospect, one solid prospect, and one or two medium-range prospects" in a trade should the Mets put their shortstop on the market this winter. This source seems in favor of a total rebuild for the Mets; he also thinks they should try to deal David Wright and Francisco Rodriguez.
- Hal McCoy of the Dayton Daily News cites Bronson Arroyo's durability, consistent win totals and veteran presence as reasons why Cincinnati should pick up the right-hander's $11MM option for next season.
- We've heard that the Rockies will look for a right-handed first baseman to platoon with Todd Helton next season, and ESPN.com's Jason A. Churchill cites former Rockie Garrett Atkins as a possibility for the role. Atkins was non-tendered
by Colorado last winter and after signing a one-year contract with
Baltimore, was released by the Orioles last July.
- Interim Arizona GM Jerry Dipoto will interview for the full-time position tomorrow, reports MLB.com's Steve Gilbert (Twitter link).
- Any Boston fans tickled by A.J. Burnett's struggles this season might not want to crow too much, since Fangraphs' Joe Pawlikowski cites Burnett as comparable to the also-struggling John Lackey.
- Charley Walters of the St. Paul Pioneer Press wonders if the Red Sox might pursue Jim Thome as a cheaper free agent DH option rather than pick up David Ortiz's 2011 option.
- Travis Buck's "organizational status is clearly at an all-time low" in Oakland, writes Mychael Urban of CSNBayArea.com. Buck is eligible for arbitration for the first time this winter and could be non-tendered given the number of other promising outfielders in the Athletics' system.
- If Jesus Montero can develop a solid catching glove to go along with his powerful bat, the Mariners may regret passing on New York's Montero-centered offer for Cliff Lee, writes ESPN.com's Buster Olney.
- Blogger El Lefty Malo praises the Giants' acquisition of Cody Ross and some other recent Brian Sabean moves.
- Angels manager Mike Scioscia thinks the Halos just need a "tweaking" rather than an overhaul in the winter, reports Mike DiGiovanna of the Los Angeles Times.
- Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch says upgrading the infield should be a top priority for the Cardinals in the offseason.