Elias Type A/Type B Free Agents Rumors

24 Free Agents Offered Arbitration

All of the arbitration offers are in. Here's a list of which free agents were offered arbitration. If these players decline the offer and sign elsewhere, the original club will get one or two draft picks. There's an additional "tax" on these Type A free agents, as you have to give up a pick to sign one. For more about the process, click here. For the full up-to-date free agent list, click here. Type A (15 players) A.J. Burnett Orlando Cabrera Juan Cruz Brian Fuentes Orlando Hudson Raul Ibanez Derek Lowe Darren Oliver Oliver Perez Manny Ramirez Francisco Rodriguez C.C....   Continue Reading

---

Which Type Bs Will Be Offered Arbitration?

Teams have a chance to snag a supplemental draft pick if they offer arbitration to their Type B free agent and he signs elsewhere. The risk is that the player could accept and leave the team with an unwanted financial burden. Of the 33 Type B free agents, which do you think will be offered arbitration Monday? Check the box next to those who will be offered arbitration, in your opinion. Take the poll here, see the results here.   Continue Reading

---

Which Type As Will Be Offered Arbitration?

There are 27 Type A free agents. To receive two draft picks as compensation, the player's original team must offer arbitration. If the player turns down the offer and signs elsewhere, the original team gets the picks. If the player accepts the offer, the team is "stuck" with the player on a non-guaranteed one-year deal. Arbitration decisions are due December 1st. Let's do a reader survey on whether arbitration will be offered for each Type A free agent. Click the checkbox next to any player you predict will be offered arbitration. Click here to take the survey, and here to...   Continue Reading

---

Type A/B Free Agents

Here's a list of the possible Type A and Type B free agents this winter, courtesy of ESPN and Keith Law. A few changes to the previous estimates: Bob Howry is a Type A, while Milton Bradley, Ivan Rodriguez, Randy Johnson, Luis Ayala, Rudy Seanez, and Arthur Rhodes are Type Bs. Type A Bobby Abreu (Yankees) Doug Brocail (Astros) A.J. Burnett (Blue Jays) Pat Burrell (Phillies) Orlando Cabrera (White Sox) Juan Cruz (Diamondbacks) Ryan Dempster (Cubs) Adam Dunn (Diamondbacks) Brian Fuentes (Rockies) Brian Giles (Padres) Bob Howry (Cubs) Orlando Hudson (Diamondbacks) Raul Ibanez (Mariners) Jason Isringhausen (Cardinals) Derek Lowe (Dodgers)...   Continue Reading

---

Elias Projections: NL Infielders

Eddie Bajek at Detroit Tigers Thoughts has his projections of the Elias rankings for National League second basemen, third basemen, and shortstops. Type A: Orlando Hudson. Hudson will surely be offered arbitration from the D'Backs, and will likely decline in search of a multiyear deal. The D'Backs could snag a first-round pick if the Cardinals, White Sox, or Mets sign him (among others). Tybe B: Jeff Kent, Casey Blake, Mark Loretta. Blake seems likely to get an arb offer and turn it down, resulting in a supplemental draft pick for the Dodgers if he leaves Los Angeles. Neither: Rafael Furcal,...   Continue Reading

---

Elias Rankings: AL Infielders

Eddie Bajek at Detroit Tigers Thoughts has Elias projections for American League second basemen, third basemen, and shortstops. Type A: Orlando Cabrera, Edgar Renteria. Cabrera certainly gets an offer of arbitration and signs elsewhere. The White Sox have to be hoping the Dodgers, Blue Jays, or Twins sign him. The Tigers offering arbitration to Renteria is a borderline call - would they be OK with him accepting? Type B: Mark Grudzielanek, Juan Uribe. The Royals, hoping to try someone new at second base, may not offer arb to Grudzielanek. Uribe seems unlikely, as his salary in '08 was high for...   Continue Reading

---

Elias Rankings: NL 1B/OF

Eddie Bajek at Detroit Tigers Thoughts has his National League 1B/OF Elias projections ready. Type A: Manny Ramirez, Adam Dunn, Pat Burrell. Manny has already agreed to decline an offer of arbitration, so the Dodgers are getting two picks if he leaves. The D'Backs could end up with tons of picks, with Dunn, Orlando Hudson, Juan Cruz, and Brandon Lyon eligible for free agency. Type B: Moises Alou, Luis Gonzalez, Mike Cameron. Alou and Gonzalez won't be offered arbitration. The Brewers could offer it to Cameron if they decline his option, if they believe he would seek a contract elsewhere.   Continue Reading

---

Elias Rankings: AL 1B/OF/DH

Eddie Bajek at Detroit Tigers Thoughts presents his Elias rankings for American League first baseman/outfielders/DHs, who are all grouped together for this purpose. Type A: Mark Teixeira, Raul Ibanez, Bobby Abreu, Milton Bradley. All four will probably be offered arbitration and will decline. Click here to see the unprotected first-round draft picks - teams may be rooting for their Type As to sign with these clubs. Type B: Garret Anderson, Ken Griffey Jr., Frank Thomas. Hard to see an offer of arbitration to any of these three.   Continue Reading

---

Free Agent Quotas

Readers often ask whether teams will face quotas if they want to sign multiple Type A or B free agents. So tonight I busted out the Basic Agreement and tried to translate it into English. The relevant section: Quota (a) Clubs shall be limited in the number of Type A and B Players, as defined below, they may subsequently sign to contracts. The number of signings permitted shall be related to the number of Players electing free agency under this Section B. If there are 14 or less such Players, no Club may sign more than one Type A or...   Continue Reading

---

Elias Rankings - AL Relievers

Eddie Bajek at Detroit Tigers Thoughts just posted his projected Elias rankings for American League relievers. Type A: Francisco Rodriguez, Damaso Marte, Darren Oliver. Not an ideal situation for Oliver, as his status will act as a deterrent to other teams if the Angels offer him arbitration and he declines. The Angels could also get the #25 pick next year if the Mets sign K-Rod. The Mets lost the #18 pick in '06 after signing Billy Wagner, and the Phils used it on Kyle Drabek. Type B: Jamey Wright, Dennys Reyes, Alan Embree, Trever Miller.   Continue Reading

---

Elias Rankings: AL Starters

Eddie Bajek attempts to project Elias rankings for American League starters here. Type A: A.J. Burnett, Andy Pettitte, Mike Mussina. Burnett seems likely to decline an offer of arbitration and sign elsewhere, giving the Blue Jays two draft picks as compensation. Type B: Tim Wakefield, Jon Garland, Paul Byrd. Garland seems most likely to decline an offer of arbitration and sign elsewhere, though Byrd is a candidate.   Continue Reading

---

Odds and Ends: Bonds, Crow, Odalis Perez

Links for Tuesday... Barry Bonds is enjoying his freedom. MLB.com has a list of all the potential free agents. The Dodgers lead with 14, while the Royals and Giants have only two. Brewers GM Doug Melvin may get an extension soon. Rich Harden will have a shoulder exam soon, which will inform the Cubs' decision on his $7MM option. MLB.com's Matthew Leach sees the Cardinals letting starter Braden Looper leave, but attempting to re-sign infielder Felipe Lopez. The Kansas City Star's Bill Reiter catches up with Aaron Crow, who is basically just chillin' right now. MLB.com's Dick Kaegel says the...   Continue Reading

---

Elias Rankings: NL Starters

Eddie Bajek has cautioned that his projected Elias rankings may not be perfect. However, it's the closest thing we've got as Eddie is the only person to publicly reverse-engineer the rankings. With that, a look at the NL starters: Type A: C.C. Sabathia, Ben Sheets, Oliver Perez, Derek Lowe, and Jamie Moyer. Moyer is on the borderline, so he could possibly end up a Type B. He seems likely to re-sign anyway. The other four will be offered arbitration and could sign elsewhere, netting two draft picks for their old team. Type B: Brad Penny, John Smoltz, Randy Wolf, Greg...   Continue Reading

---

Odds and Ends: LaRoche, Bradley, Burnett

Digging into today's random links... Joel Sherman looks at what went wrong for the Yankees this year. Did they fall too in love with their farm system? At least six teams have called the Pirates about third baseman Andy LaRoche in recent weeks. If LaRoche pans out and Pedro Alvarez comes aboard, the Bucs could have a surplus at some point. Craig Harris examines the rise of D'Backs GM Josh Byrnes. Eddie Bajek updated the Elias rankings for the AL 1B/OF/DH category. They're fluctuating wildly. Eddie also did catchers for both leagues; Ivan Rodriguez is headed into Type B territory....   Continue Reading

---

Elias Rankings: NL Relievers

Eddie Bajek has updated his projected Elias rankings, adding NL relievers. He explains the stats used in this post. Type A: Ryan Dempster, Russ Springer, Juan Cruz, Brian Fuentes, Doug Brocail, and Kerry Wood. The Cubs will probably re-sign both of their guys. The others stand a good chance of being offered arbitration, with Cruz and Fuentes likely to sign elsewhere and net picks for the D'Backs and Rockies. Type B: Brian Shouse, Jason Isringhausen, Joe Beimel, Jeremy Affeldt, Dave Weathers, Trevor Hoffman, Brandon Lyon, and Eric Gagne. Beimel and Lyon might receive arbitration offers. Just missed Type B: Arthur...   Continue Reading

---

Elias Ranking Update: AL Relievers

I don't believe we've mentioned this yet...Eddie Bajek added the AL relievers for his projected Elias rankings. He notes that these rankings can swing quite a bit in the remaining three weeks of the season. Type As: Francisco Rodriguez, Damaso Marte, and...Darren Oliver? No doubt the Yankees will buy Marte's $6MM option out for $250K, but will they offer him arbitration? He is earning $2MM this year, and has been terrible for them. Type Bs: Jamey Wright, Dennys Reyes, and Alan Embree. Wright and Reyes are earning $1MM this year; Embree $3MM with a club option for '09 at the...   Continue Reading

---

Odds And Ends: Millar, Lowe, Jays, Ibanez, Garciaparra, Posey

A few notes from the MLBiverse... Kevin Millar wants to return to the Orioles in '09. Of course, many feel the O's will make a run at Mark Teixeira this off-season which would decrease Millar's chances of re-signing, unless both sides feel he can be a full-time DH. Millar made $2.75MM this season. Detroit Tiger Thoughts has made an adjustment to the projected Elias ranking for Derek Lowe. He will indeed be a Type A free agent this off-season. The original article is missing from the Toronto Sun, but Sportsnet has the piece in which Paul Godfrey says the Jays...   Continue Reading

---

Week In Review: 8/31 - 9/6

Sunday afternoon means it's time to look back at the week and recap the major stories here on MLBTR. Let's take a look: Arizona made a move to help replace Orlando Hudson when they acquired David Eckstein from Toronto for minor league pitcher Chad Beck. Second major move we saw from the D'Backs in August, and it seems like a fair price to add some stability to the middle of their infield for the remainder of the season. Brief update on the Pedro Alvarez drama. The Pirates will not re-negotiate his contract even if that option is somehow allowed. Tim...   Continue Reading

---

Elias Ranking Update: NL Starters

Once again we turn to Eddie Bajek at Detroit Tigers Thoughts, who has cracked the Elias formula. Today, National League starters have been added. Thoughts: Four starters project to have Type A status: C.C. Sabathia, Kyle Lohse, Ben Sheets, and Oliver Perez. Lohse and Perez are solid pitchers, but they're less attractive given the loss of a draft pick. Teams like the Mets, Astros, Cardinals, and Yankees may be searching for starting pitching and may have unprotected first-round picks to lose. Type Bs: Randy Wolf, Randy Johnson, Derek Lowe, Brad Penny, Jamie Moyer, John Smoltz, and Greg Maddux. You have...   Continue Reading

---

Elias Rankings Updated

Eddie Bajek over at Detroit Tigers Thoughts has added Elias rankings for American League starting pitchers. Thoughts: A.J. Burnett is comfortably a Type A, so the Jays should get a couple of nice draft picks if and when he opts out. Yankees pitchers Andy Pettitte and Mike Mussina have Type A status (Mussina is on the borderline). It makes sense for the Yankees to offer arbitration to both. Jon Garland and Paul Byrd are Type Bs. The Angels seem likely to offer Garland arbitration. Kenny Rogers was not able to earn Type A or B status.   Continue Reading

---

Elias Rankings Update

Eddie Bajek of Detroit Tigers Thoughts ran the Elias numbers for the NL infielders. Thoughts: Despite his injury, Orlando Hudson appears safe as a Type A. The D'Backs could get a draft pick bonanza if Hudson, Adam Dunn, and Brandon Lyon are offered arbitration and sign elsewhere. That won't help them in '09 though. Casey Blake is a Type B; I could see him seeking a multiyear deal in a weak third base market. The Dodgers may re-sign him, though. Rafael Furcal seems to have neither Type A nor Type B status, due to his injury this year. So the...   Continue Reading

---

Elias Ranking Update

Eddie Bajek has been doing great work reverse-engineering the Elias rankings over at his blog, Detroit Tigers Thoughts. He's now ranked catchers, first basemen, outfielders, and designated hitters for both leagues. An explanation of free agent draft pick compensation can be found here. For a team to get draft picks, they need to offer arbitration to their free agent and then have him decline and sign elsewhere. So it either has to be a player they wouldn't mind having on a one-year deal, or a player who is a lock for a multiyear contract. Looking at Eddie's (unfinished) list, the...   Continue Reading

---

Odds and Ends: Elias, Izzy, Silva, Colletti

Linkage for Wednesday... Eddie Bajek over at Detroit Tigers Thoughts has successfully reverse-engineered the Elias Type A/Type B formula. Today he assigns statuses to the American League catchers. Jason Varitek clings to Type A, while Ivan Rodriguez has slipped to Type B. Read more about how free agent compensation works here. Jason Isringhausen's season, and maybe his career, is over due to a torn flexor tendon in his elbow. J.C. Bradbury puts on his GM hat for the Braves. Rather than plug in free agent signings, he'd sell off most of the infield. MetsBlog's Matthew Cerrone extinguishes a Carlos Silva...   Continue Reading

---

Elias Sports Bureau Rankings: Cracking The Code

Eddie Bajek, who runs the blog Detroit Tigers Thoughts, has come tantalizingly close to cracking the code behind the Elias Sports Bureau ranking system. Every year, Elias puts every player into one of five groups and ranks them based on various stats. Players are classified as Type A, Type B, or nothing, and this determines free agent compensation. Eddie has been working to reverse-engineer the formula based on the information we have. His last hurdle is the adjustment for time spent on the disabled list. Apparently stats can be restored for up to 60 days of missed playing time, according...   Continue Reading

---

Free Agent Compensation

Here's a reminder of how free agent compensation works in baseball, with Adam Dunn as the example (for this example, pretend Dunn was not traded and remained with the Reds). The Reds have the choice of offering Dunn arbitration after the season. If Dunn accepts, the Reds get him for '09 at a salary determined by the arbitration process. He's earning $13MM in '08 and having a typical year, so the process would result in an even higher salary for '09. (Occasionally a player accepts arbitration when the team didn't expect him to, like Greg Maddux and the Braves in...   Continue Reading

---

Elias Rankings Released

This is like Christmas for baseball nerds like me. The Elias rankings are out - here's the AL and here's the NL. I've updated the 2008 MLB Free Agents post to reflect those who are off the market and also added Types. And here's a look at which first round picks are protected and which aren't. Random thoughts: The Yankees could get nice consolation prizes in the form of first-round picks if they lose Jorge Posada or Mariano Rivera. For example if the Mets sign Posada the Yankees get their #22 overall pick. If the Phils sign Rivera the Yanks..   Continue Reading

---

Padres Rumors: Maddux, Cabrera, Barrett, Bradley

As usual, Tom Krasovic has the scoop with the Padres. The Padres expect Greg Maddux back, at a salary near the $10MM he earned in '07. One way it could happen - Mad Dog declines his $8.75MM player option and the Padres exercise their $11MM club option. Otherwise they'll just tear it up and figure something out. The Padres will pass on available third basemen Alex Rodriguez and Miguel Cabrera. It sounds like a Padres team source is indicating the Marlins plan to shop Cabrera aggressively. As if this offseason wasn't going to be crazy enough, here's another marquee player..   Continue Reading

---

Stats Used For Elias Type A/Type B Free Agent Rankings

In a November '06 blog entry, ESPN's Keith Law revealed a lot of good info about how Elias determines whether a free agent is Type A, Type B, or neither. Keith was kind enough to reveal some additional info to me. This will help us immensely in trying to guess types before they come out. Everyone thank him and read his stuff at ESPN. First let's start with the positions Elias uses. All players (not just free agents) are put into one of five groups as seen below. Position is designated as the position at which the player appeared the..   Continue Reading

---

Search MLBTR

MLBTR Mailing List

Enter your email address:

Delivered by FeedBurner

MLBTR Features

Recent Posts

Rumors By Team

Monthly Archives

Live Chats

Tuesdays at 2 p.m. CST