Free Agent Stock Watch Rumors

Free Agent Stock Watch: Ryan Dempster

One player whose stock has risen in '08 is Cubs starter Ryan Dempster. The 31 year-old hadn't started regularly since '03, but he currently sports a 5-1 record with a 2.35 ERA. He's earning $5.5MM in the last year of a three-year extension. Part of Dempster's success can be attributed to his .211 BABIP, lowest in the league. As a team the Cubs have a .277 BABIP, and something around there would be a more reasonable expectation moving forward. On the plus side, Dempster's 55% groundball rate ranks seventh in the NL, and it's helped him keep the ball in...   Continue Reading

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Free Agent Stock Watch: Joe Crede

White Sox third baseman Joe Crede hopes to stay in Chicago beyond 2008. He's willing to have his agent, Scott Boras, negotiate in-season with the Sox - but only if the team approaches him. Crede will still listen to the Sox after the season, but he'll be on the open market after the exclusive negotiation period expires. Will the Sox offer Crede arbitration? The possibility that he accepts and they have him for '09 seems a risk worth taking. Crede would probably be a Type B free agent, and he'd likely decline arbitration in hopes of a multiyear deal. It's...   Continue Reading

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Free Agent Stock Watch: Milton Bradley

In December, Milton Bradley signed a one-year deal with the Rangers for $5.25MM guaranteed. He can earn up to $2.75MM more based on playing time incentives. The Padres didn't offer him arbitration; they were afraid of a possible award nearing $10MM. Bradley was available at an affordable price and term mainly because of his injury history - he hasn't played 100 games in a season since 2004. His '07 season ended with an ACL tear in a bizarre incident (his manager tackled him to keep him away from an umpire who had provoked him). That Bradley was ready for Opening...   Continue Reading

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Free Agent Stock Watch: Jason Varitek

Oh no! It's a Yankees blogger talking about the Red Sox! He's gonna be all biased and junk! While I'm sure I'll get some of that in the comments, I think talking about Jason Varitek's impending free agency is a worthy topic for this slow Saturday. So, what are we looking at for the 36-year-old backstop? You know where I'm going with this. After the 2007 season, a 36-year-old Jorge Posada signed a four-year, $52.4MM contract. This was on the heels of Posada's best season, .338/.426/.543. Can we expect something similar for Varitek, who will turn 37 at the beginning...   Continue Reading

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Free Agent Stock Watch: Rafael Furcal

Indicators predicting a big year for Rafael Furcal included his impending free agency, a return to health, and a strong Spring Training performance. After 28 games, he sits at .371/.459/.586 (tops among shortstops). When Furcal first reached free agency after the 2005 season, he was only 28 and was coming off a .284/.348/.429 season. He chose to maximize his yearly salary rather than take a four or five-year deal. The three-year, $39MM contract Furcal signed with the Dodgers allows him to re-enter free agency at age 31. Furcal is in line for a monster contract even if he can't maintain...   Continue Reading

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Free Agent Stock Watch: Mark Ellis

A's second baseman Mark Ellis might be the affordable alternative to Orlando Hudson next winter. In September of last year, the A's chose to exercise Ellis' $5MM option for '08. Ellis, 30, was ranked as the fourth-best defensive second baseman by the Fielding Bible's panel of experts, behind Aaron Hill, Hudson, and Brandon Phillips. The market might undervalue second base defense - Baseball Prospectus' PECOTA projection system values Ellis at about $30MM over the 2009-11 seasons. He seems unlikely to become a $10MM a year player. Ellis also has offensive value. He's good for a .330 OBP and .400 SLG,...   Continue Reading

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Free Agent Stock Watch: Jon Garland

One thing Jon Garland has going for him is his age. He'll spend the 2009 season as a 29 year-old. Only a few other free agent starters will be under 30 that year: Oliver Perez (27), Mark Prior (27), and C.C. Sabathia (28). A team that can't afford Sabathia but misses out on Perez might turn to Garland. Garland is an innings eater, having topped 210 in each of the last three seasons. His low strikeout rate leads to plenty of hits, but he balances that with good control. His groundball rate had been on the decline from 2005-07, but...   Continue Reading

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Free Agent Stock Watch: Adam Dunn

Adam Dunn will be a free agent after this season. So it's a safe bet that Dunn is going to have a career year and will cash in this winter, right? Not so fast. Dunn, who has hit exactly 40 home runs in each of the past three seasons, has only two so far. But that's not what makes Dunn's 2008 start so interesting. This season, Dunn's OBP is a robust .418, but his batting average is an anemic .191. How do we account for this dichotomy? Quite simply, Dunn has walked more than usual. So far, he's walked 19...   Continue Reading

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Free Agent Stock Watch: Ben Sheets

It looks like Ben Sheets made the right decision by signing a four-year contract with the Brewers after his spectacular 2004 season. The then-25-year-old tossed 237 innings to the tune of a 2.70 ERA, striking out 264 to just 32 walks, with a WHIP below 1.00. Those are absolutely insane numbers, but because his team was lousy, he finished just eighth in the Cy Young voting. (To be fair, Randy Johnson should have won it, with Sheets a close second.) Since then, Sheets hasn't pitched more than 157 innings in a season due to a number of injuries. He's still...   Continue Reading

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Free Agent Stock Watch: Derek Lowe

I was skeptical when the Dodgers signed Scott Boras client Derek Lowe to a four-year, $36MM deal in January of '05 following an awful season for Boston. Lowe proved his detractors wrong by demonstrating durability and effectiveness over his first three Dodger seasons. He's off to a nice start in this year as well. Since the beginning of the '05 season, Lowe's 3.64 ERA ranks 11th among all starters with 600 innings. He doesn't get enough credit - he's been a legitimate #1 starter during this contract. Lowe will sign his next deal as a 35 year-old (he hasn't had...   Continue Reading

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Free Agent Stock Watch: Juan Rivera

Angels outfielder Juan Rivera is in a tough situation, fighting for playing time in his contract year. So far he has eight ABs in the team's first 16 games. He's just not getting starter consideration at the DH or corner spots. Rivera seems like an interesting buy-low candidate, whether via trade during the season or free agency after it. The one time he received more than 400 ABs, in 2006, he hit .310/.362/.525. He broke his leg in a winter league game that year and has barely played since. The Angels aren't in any hurry to trade him, despite interest....   Continue Reading

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Free Agent Stock Watch: Pat Burrell

Phillies left fielder Pat Burrell was awesome in July and August of last year. Outside of that, he was just decent. He's off to a blazing start in his first 14 games of 2008. He turns 32 in October and can explore free agency after the season. Burrell is earning $14MM this year. Which players might serve as comparables for Burrell's next deal? Carlos Lee is similar, though he was a few years younger when he reached free agency in '06. Lee received $16.6MM per year for six years. Burrell could be compared to Alfonso Soriano, who received an even...   Continue Reading

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Free Agent Stock Watch: Cristian Guzman

Time for the first edition of Free Agent Stock Watch. Today we'll look at the rising stock of 30 year-old Nationals shortstop Cristian Guzman, who is eligible for free agency after the '08 season. Jim Bowden was heavily criticized for signing the switch-hitting Guzman to a four-year, $16.8MM deal in November of '04. He was considered an all-glove, no-hit player. Guzman was awful for most of '05, though poor eyesight was suggested as one explanation. Guzman then missed all of '06 with shoulder surgery. The following season was cut short by hamstring and thumb problems. But since '07 he's been...   Continue Reading

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