Homer Bailey Rumors
SUNDAY: A small update from Mark Gonzales of the Chicago Tribune - any deal involving the Reds and Dye is "complicated by financial matters." Not sure why; Dye is only on the hook for $11.5MM next year.
SATURDAY: John Fay got Walt Jocketty to admit he's talked to the White Sox (nothing is close). Jocketty's non-denial about the Dye rumor seems to indicate it's accurate.
TUESDAY, 5:42pm: MLB.com's Scott Merkin notes that the Mets and Phillies are two of the six teams on Dye's no-trade list. Dye's agent, Bob Bry, has not been contacted by Ken Williams in regard to a possible trade to either club. The Reds don't appear to be on the list, though, so Williams would not need clearance to make a deal with them.
12:13pm: Lance McAlister of 1530 WCKY in Cincinnati has a rumor up regarding trade talks between the White Sox and Reds.
McAlister's source says the White Sox initiated talks to send Jermaine Dye to the Reds for Homer Bailey and another player. Ken Rosenthal says Dye's no-trade clause mostly covers teams in the northeast. Perhaps the Sox can trade him to the Reds without his consent. Ken Williams and Walt Jocketty matched up in July on the Ken Griffey Jr. trade. It's known that Jocketty prefers trades to free agency.
John Perrotto of Baseball Prospectus has his Sunday article up. Let's go through it:
- The Angels may be willing to match the Yankees $140MM offer to CC Sabathia. They won't offer 10 years to Mark Teixeira. If they can't land Teixeira, they will consider Pat Burrell for first base.
- A.J. Burnett is looking at the Blue Jays, Red Sox, Yankees, Braves, Orioles, and Phillies.
- The Twins want a left-side infielder for Delmon Young, so they can open a spot for Denard Span in the starting lineup.
- The Tigers are pursuing Jack Wilson from the Pirates and Matt Treanor from the Marlins. They are also putting high priority on signing Joe Beimel who's getting interest from a number of teams.
- The Dodgers will not re-sign Rafael Furcal for health reasons so the Giants, Athletics, and Reds are his most likely destinations.
- The Cubs will need to offer more than Jason Marquis to the Royals for David DeJesus. If they can't get it done, they'd sign Raul Ibanez over Bobby Abreu.
- The Braves are interested in Javier Vazquez and Jermaine Dye...
- The Reds need to offer more than Homer Bailey to get Dye.
- The Mets are considering Jon Garland, Vazquez, Edwin Jackson, Andy Sonnanstine. The Rays want more than Aaron Heilman for either of their starters.
- The Mets could soon become suitors for Manny Ramirez.
- The Brewers could soon become suitors for Francisco Rodriguez.
- The Astros are targeting Paul Bako and David Ross as backup catchers.
- The Rockies are trying to find lefthanders, eyeing Alan Embree, Will Ohman, Brian Shouse, and Glendon Rusch.
- The Rockies will offer arbitration to Brian Fuentes, who is a Type A free agent. Obviously it's all about the two draft picks, as Fuentes will decline. He'll probably sign with a team with an unprotected first-round pick, too.
- Harding says the Rockies are already receiving calls on Huston Street. ESPN's Buster Olney says Dan O'Dowd is telling other GMs he won't trade Street, but some believe it's posturing.
- O'Dowd backed off a bit on the idea of re-signing Glendon Rusch and Scott Podsednik, saying he wants to make sure there's a role for them in Colorado.
- The Rockies won't be diving in on any big-name free agent pitchers. They'll either stand pat or pursue trades.
- O'Dowd called the Reds trade rumors "comical." The Rockies, by the way, are apparently not interested in Homer Bailey.
Buster Olney has a new column up. Let's take a look:
- He suggests Randy Wolf as a "possible trade chip" with the Padres looking increasingly out of it this year. One problem: Wolf has veto power over trades to 14 teams. He's been decent this year, with a 4.13 ERA and 89 strikeouts in 98 innings, but nothing to get too excited over.
- Gossip item: the Mets could have had Kyle Lohse for what the Cardinals are paying ($4.25MM), only Omar Minaya passed.
- Olney doesn't see much in the speculation about the Angels wanting C.C. Sabathia. With Kelvim Escobar's rehab going well, great first-half performances from Joe Saunders and Ervin Santana, and John Lackey likely to improve going forward, why should they make a push for C.C.? Olney sees the Brewers and the Cubs as more interested parties. (Ken Rosenthal mentioned the Brewers and the Rays as C.C. suitors yesterday.) Later in the post, Olney notes that Sabathia has a 1.96 ERA in his last fourteen starts. Yowza.
- How the Rockies fare over the next two weeks could determine what becomes of Brian Fuentes.
- Olney can't decide whether the Orioles should buy or sell. What do you think?
- Roy Oswalt won't get traded, with Olney linking to the Houston Chronicle's Richard Justice for his evidence. (Oswalt has, of course, been talking like he'd prefer to be somewhere else.) Also working against a deal for Oswalt: his continued experiments with pitching to contact (to keep the ol' pitch count down) haven't been going very well this year, either. His K/9 has been declining for years, of course, but it may have reached a point of no return this season. Whatever happens, I'm sure the 'stros would prefer to move him at peak value, not right now when he has a 4.77 ERA.
- Homer Bailey, back in Triple A Louisville, isn't getting any love from the scout quoted here, who says he threw "batting practice fastballs." Bailey was 0-3 with a 8.73 ERA in the majors this year after a hotly anticipated call-up. Given the bounty of young arms they already have, the Reds would probably prefer to trade him...but alas, his value has dropped the way his curveball used to.
ESPN's Peter Gammons posted to his blog yesterday; let's take a look.
- More negative vibes around the Reds' Homer Bailey. His apparent availability seems odd given his talent. Bailey was described by an evaluator friend of Buster Olney as "someone who thinks he's got it all figured out."
- Gammons likes the fit of Barry Bonds in Seattle, but sees Jeff Clement as the team's DH in the event that Richie Sexson starts to repeat his '07.
- The A's still like Coco Crisp, but the Red Sox want young catching and/or pitching that the A's would prefer to keep. Susan Slusser wrote on Saturday that talks between the two clubs had revived.
- Giants scouts are apparently handing out a list to other teams with almost a dozen available players (basically all the veterans). The Giants currently have nine pitchers vying for three bullpen spots.
Here's today's link roundup.
- MetsBlog passes along a Jon Heyman WFAN appearance tidbit. The SI.com writer said the Mets and Tigers are discussing a Marcus Thames for Jorge Sosa swap. Thames definitely fits the Mets' needs, though Sosa seems a little light for him.
- I did a fantasy baseball mailbag for Hardball Times.
- Brandon Inge tries to explain his comments about catching.
- John Smoltz has advice for Cole Hamels.
- Nice to see a popular player legitimately spending time to sign fan mail.
- Buster Olney says the Red Sox and A's are still discussing Coco Crisp.
- Olney also notes that "talent evaluators say the Reds have demonstrated a clear willingness to deal Homer Bailey."
9:14pm: Fay suggests the A's would want Homer Bailey or Johnny Cueto, Joey Votto, and a third player for Blanton.
1:32pm: Paul Daugherty and John Fay of the Cincinnati Enquirer report that the Reds and Dodgers are talking to the A's about Blanton. Seems to be a disagreement about whether the Dodgers are in on this.
- One Rosenthal source suggests a 50/50 chance Blanton is traded (presumably before the season starts).
- Two teams are showing significant interest. Rosenthal believes the Reds are one, and the Twins or Rays could be another. He rules out the Dodgers, Yankees, Rockies, and Indians. The Reds have had preliminary discussions for Blanton already. How about the Phillies? They came calling in July.
- Rosenthal notes that the bounty for Blanton will be less than that of Dan Haren, because Blanton is slightly more expensive and an inferior pitcher.
- On January 14th, an A's source suggested to MLB.com's Jim Molony who expected Blanton to be the A's Opening Day starter.
UPDATE, 1-10-08 at 5:38pm: Churchill has further updated his right-hand sidebar referencing the Reds possibility. He says the O's want Bailey, Votto, Cueto, and Edwin Encarnacion. This is particularly lopsided, and pushing Melvin Mora back to Cincy wouldn't make it any less so. Mora may have negative value at this point. Meanwhile John Fay says nothing new has happened on the Reds/Bedard front.
UPDATE, 1-09-08 at 9:07pm: Rosenthal checks in with an update. If the Mariners would give up Chris Tillman, they could have a done deal. Baseball Prospectus' Kevin Goldstein ranks the 19 year-old righty as Seattle's second best prospect, giving him a number two starter ceiling. Rosenthal confirms that Jones is the centerpiece, while George Sherrill and Carlos Triunfel are in play.
Meanwhile, Jason Churchill of Prospect Insider says on the right-hand sidebar of this page that the Reds might step up their offer in an attempt to make a late play. He thinks they could give up Homer Bailey, Joey Votto, Johnny Cueto, and a fourth player, which would be absurd.
FROM 1-09-08 at 9:03am:
On Tuesday, both Ken Rosenthal and Jason Churchill carefully stated that the Orioles and Mariners were making progress on an Erik Bedard trade. The deal would center around Adam Jones but include other good young players as well. The Reds and Indians were named as other lingering Bedard suitors.
Larry Stone of the Seattle Times checked in on the Bedard situation today. His MLB source agreed that talks between the Mariners and Orioles have heated up. Andy MacPhail, however, would not use the words "heating up." Stone goes on to mention that the Mets "could be players" for Bedard in addition to the Ohio teams. Contrary to earlier reports, Stone was able to extract a quote from Ms GM Bill Bavasi that indicated Brandon Morrow was not off limits.
John Hickey admits that the rumors won't die but doesn't think the Mariners have made any actual progress on a deal. He agrees that Morrow seems a bit more available than he did before. Hickey suggests Josh Fogg could be a backup plan to Bedard for Seattle, noting that Fogg likes the idea of pitching in Safeco. The Reds are also believed to have interest in Fogg.
The rumor mill is picking up today, thanks in no short part to Ken Rosenthal. Check out his latest column.
- Rosenthal believes the Padres are Mark Prior's first choice, but as usual they won't pay as much as other teams. Both Texas clubs are in the lead for Prior currently. Rosenthal also names the Cards, Mets, and Yankees are suitors, as we knew. The Pirates, by the way, have not inquired.
- Talks for Erik Bedard have slowed down, because the Orioles aren't impressed with the offers. The Mariners, Reds, and Mets are the top contenders. Rosenthal indicates that the Reds may be overvaluing Homer Bailey, compared to the perception of other clubs.
- Interesting late-game suitors for Dan Haren: the Rockies and Braves. You wonder, then, whether they'll also inquire on Bedard.
- Rosenthal notes that the Chris Burke acquisition could be a sign that the D'Backs won't re-sign Orlando Hudson. Burke will have to show something first though.
- The Orioles don't seem likely to flip Luke Scott; they like his style. The guy could hit 30 bombs this year, in the opinion of Ron Shandler and Co.
- The Twins are up to 39 on their 40 man roster, so they'll have to be creative to take back four players in a Johan Santana deal. It could mean including a player with Johan.
John Fay writes of the Reds' continued search for a starting pitcher. That's Wayne Krivsky's focus; his main limitation is that Jay Bruce is untouchable.
The Reds couldn't get Dan Haren because they wouldn't give up young starter Johnny Cueto. The focus remains on Erik Bedard; the Reds seem willing to offer Homer Bailey as a starting point. Fay indicates that the Dodgers lead for Bedard, which is odd given their current six-deep rotation.
I have a feeling the hot stove is going to turn to Joe Blanton now. The Reds may be in the thick of it, especially if they'd give up Bailey for him. What do you think, would that be a wise move?