Jason Vargas Rumors
For those of you still up watching the epic Giants-Dodgers game unfold tonight, here are a few final notes from today:
- Assessing the Phillies' front office performance this past offseason, Bob Ford of the Philadelphia Inquirer leaves litle doubt as to his stance. He writes (via the Miami Herald) that the Phillies built their 2013 team "on the precarious hope that their aging veteran starters would pitch well and that their aging everyday players would regain their productivity. Around that central theme, the front office sprinkled journeymen and prospects who might be good enough if everything else went right." While the Philadelphia sits only three games under .500, that record has been built on a 9-3 mark against the Mets and Marlins. Unfortunately, opines Ford, there is little that the team can do at this point, especially as the team lacks impact minor league talent ready to help the big league club. With a turnaround always at least possible given the team's starting pitching corps, and with trade value difficult to maximize at this point in the year, Ford says that all the Phillies can do is continue down the path they have chosen and continue to hope for the best.
- In yesterday's matchup between likely first-round pitchers Mark Appel of Stanford and Trevor Williams of Arizona State, it was Appel that came up out on top, writes Keith Law of ESPN (on Insider). Law came away impressed with all of Appel's three primary pitches, along with his athleticism and mechanics. He noted that the Astros and Cubs scouts in attendance likely felt the same. Those two clubs, of course, possess the first two picks in the upcoming amateur draft.
- The prospective class of 2014 free agent starters is beginning to look deeper, tweets Jon Heyman of CBSSports.com. Heyman points to recent solid starts from Dan Haren, Jason Vargas, and Phil Hughes. While Heyman also notes that Roy Halladay and Tim Lincecum have settled down since their less-than-promising beginnings to the season, both were roughed up again in their latest outings. With more question marks than sure things among the best rotation options in the 2014 market, pitchers like Haren, Vargas, and Hughes have a lot of room to improve their market positioning over the course of this season. Haren, a 32-year-old one-time ace, has battled through an abysmal early-going to register two consecutive starts that were more reminiscent of his former dominance. The 30-year-old Vargas has buttressed his case as a solid innings-eater, going deep into his last three games and maintaining a 3.72 ERA over 38 2/3 innings. And Hughes, still just 26, has steadily improved all year since returning from injury, most recently tossing an eight-inning, four-hit, nine-strikeout, no-run gem against the Athletics.
Two AL West rivals have agreed to exchange prominent players in a deal that will address major needs for both clubs. The Mariners and Angels have agreed to a trade that will send Kendrys Morales to Seattle for left-hander Jason Vargas, the Mariners announced.
Angels GM Jerry Dipoto had been hoping to obtain an innings eater for Morales, and that's precisely what he's getting in Vargas. The 29-year-old has completed at least 192 innings in each of the past three seasons. He pitched 217 1/3 innings this past season, posting a 3.85 ERA with 5.8 K/9, 2.3 BB/9 and a 40.2% ground ball rate. He joins a rotation that will include Jered Weaver, C.J. Wilson, Joe Blanton and Tommy Hanson. Garrett Richards now projects as the team's sixth starter.
Vargas will go to arbitration for the third and final time this offseason and remains on track to hit free agency one year from now. MLBTR projects a 2013 salary of $7.4MM for Vargas, a CAA Sports client.
Vargas, a fly ball pitcher like Weaver, will have a fleet-footed outfield of Mike Trout, Peter Bourjos and Josh Hamilton covering lots of ground behind him. Mark Trumbo now projects as the Angels' designated hitter. Though Bourjos and Trumbo also surfaced in trade rumors after the Angels signed Hamilton, it now seems likely that they'll stay put.
Morales, who is also one year away from free agency, projects to earn $4.8MM in 2013. He'll add some offense to a Mariners lineup that finished last in the American League in runs scored in 2012. The 29-year-old posted a .273/.320/.467 batting line with 22 home runs and 26 doubles in 522 plate appearances for the Angels this past season after missing the entire 2011 campaign with a leg injury.
The addition of Morales could cost Justin Smoak playing time, assuming the Mariners find a way to get Jesus Montero into the starting lineup most days. The Mariners' rotation will include Felix Hernandez, Hisashi Iwakuma, Blake Beavan and, potentially, promising young arms such as Erasmo Ramirez, James Paxton and Danny Hultzen. It's possible GM Jack Zduriencik will add a veteran arm, MLB.com's Greg Johns suggests (on Twitter).
Alden Gonzalez of MLB.com first reported the trade (on Twitter). Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.
The Orioles' record-setting success in one-run games continued on Tuesday as they eked out a 1-0 victory over the Rays at Tropicana Field. Both teams combined for just four hits in the game, with Chris Davis' solo homer accounting for the only run. James Shields was the tough-luck loser as he threw a complete game two-hitter while striking out 15 O's batters. The Yankees' 12-inning victory over the Red Sox tonight means that New York still holds a one-game lead over Baltimore for first place in the AL East.
Here's the latest from around the majors as we head towards the last day of the regular season...
- Picking up Carlos Ruiz's club option for 2013 is "a formality," said Phillies GM Ruben Amaro tells CSNPhilly.com's Jim Salisbury, though the club will still wait until after the World Series to make it official. The 33-year-old Ruiz delivered a career-best .327/.397/.542 line in 416 plate appearances, making his $5MM option a foregone conclusion to be exercised.
- Mariners players are happy that Safeco Field's fences will be moved in next season, reports MLB.com's Greg Johns, both for their own sakes and to help the team in acquiring free agent hitters. "Every time a guy gets on first base, that's all they talk about, how terrible this place is to hit," said Justin Smoak. "Everybody hates hitting here...I'm sure there are a lot of guys out there that have declined coming here because of that reason. This should definitely change some things. Everybody is excited about it."
- Safeco Field's adjustments will also impact Mariners pitchers, to the point that Fangraphs' Dave Cameron wonders if the M's could non-tender Jason Vargas. MLBTR's Matt Swartz projects that Vargas will earn $8.1MM in his third trip through the arbitration process, a high price for a pitcher who has had severe home/road splits in three of his four seasons in Seattle. This season, Vargas has a 2.74 ERA in 14 starts at Safeco and a 4.78 ERA in 19 road starts.
- Joey Gathright has tested positive for amphetamines and will face a 50-game suspension when he signs his next contract, reports Bob Dutton of the Kansas City Star (Twitter link). Gathright last played in the Reds organization before being released by their Triple-A team in July.
- Gordon Blakeley, a long-time scout and special assistant to Yankees GM Brian Cashman, is reportedly interested in leaving New York for a position with the Red Sox, reports ESPN Boston's Gordon Edes.
- The Rays and Angels fell short of the postseason due to injuries and unexpected rises from the Orioles and Athletics, but MLB.com's Matthew Leach also points the finger at both teams' failed low-cost signings. Luke Scott and Carlos Pena provided little offense for Tampa Bay, while LaTroy Hawkins and Jason Isringhausen didn't help stabilize the Halos' bullpen.
Kevin Millwood cleared waivers but two other Mariners starters were claimed by rival teams, Jon Paul Morosi of FOX Sports reports (Twitter links). Jason Vargas and Felix Hernandez were claimed, but they aren't going anywhere, according to Morosi.
Millwood, a free agent this offseason, can now be traded to any team. He'd be eligible for postseason rosters if Seattle trades him before midnight tonight. Otherwise he can still be traded, but only as a regular season player. He earns a $1MM salary and has a 4.28 ERA with 6.2 K/9 and 3.0 BB/9 in 145 innings.
Vargas would be more than a rental, since he’s arbitration eligible again this offseason. The left-hander earns $4.85MM this season and can expect a raise to $8MM or so for 2013. Vargas, 29, has a 3.90 ERA with 5.7 K/9 and 2.3 BB/9 in 184 2/3 innings with Seattle.
It would be a major surprise if Hernandez were traded. The 26-year-old is a leading Cy Young candidate again with an AL-best 2.43 ERA in 196 2/3 innings. He'll earn $19.5MM in 2013 and $20MM in 2014 under his current contract.
If the Mariners are serious about trading Vargas or Hernandez -- and there’s no indication this is the case -- they could wait until the offseason when more bidders emerge. For now GM Jack Zduriencik can only discuss trade scenarios with the team(s) that won the claims on his pitchers.
The Mariners have placed both Kevin Millwood and Jason Vargas on waivers, and both players are likely to be claimed, reports Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports (Twitter link). As Rosenthal notes, Vargas is owed just over $1MM for the remainder of the season, while Millwood is owed roughly $200K.
The 29-year-old Vargas is appealing for teams looking to improve their rotation in the short- and long-term; he's controlled through 2013 and is arbitration-eligible for the final time this offseason. Shortly before the trade deadline, MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz projected an $8.1MM salary for Vargas in 2013. He's pitched to a 3.71 ERA since that projection, so he likely hasn't damaged his stock any.
Overall, Vargas has a 3.75 ERA, 5.6 K/9, 2.3 BB/9 and 40.8 percent ground-ball rate in a whopping 180 innings thus far. Vargas' average of 6 2/3 innings per start is likely another appealing element of his game. Interested teams are likely wary of Vargas' struggles away from the spacious Safeco Field. His 2.62 home ERA is two full runs lower than his 4.63 road mark.
Millwood, 37, has a 4.28 ERA, 6.2 K/9, 3.0 BB/9 and 45 percent ground-ball rate in 145 innings for the Mariners this season. Unlike Vargas, he's pitched equally well away from Seattle. The former American League ERA champ signed a minor league deal with the Mariners in January and has gone on to become one of the most successful minor league signees of 2012.
Earlier today it was reported that the Dodgers were in the market for a starting pitcher. Los Angeles has been far and away the most aggressive team in this season's trade market, and they were linked to both Seattle hurlers prior to the non-waiver trade deadline.
31-year-old innings eater Joe Blanton has about $3MM left on his contract, and the Orioles are his most interested suitor. The latest:
- The Phillies are coming off the $3MM demands, tweets Connolly, and Blanton to the Orioles is picking up steam again.
- The Orioles would have to take on $3MM to acquire Blanton, and they aren't comfortable with that amount, so they're considering other options, Dan Connolly of the Baltimore Sun reports (all Twitter links). The Mariners want a lot in return for Jason Vargas, Connolly writes. Joe Saunders and Bud Norris are alternatives, but it's not clear whether they're fits for Baltimore. The Orioles don't want to give up much in a trade for starting pitching, Connolly writes.
- The Orioles tried to get Paul Maholm from the Cubs, Ghiroli reports. She confirms the team's interest in Saunders and Vargas. The Orioles are looking on the relief market as well, Ghiroli reports.
- The Orioles are turning their attention back toward other starters, tweets MLB.com's Britt Ghiroli.
- The Orioles were sent medicals on Blanton as well as two Phillies minor leaguers, tweets Roch Kubatko of MASNSports.com.
- Money continues to be a stumbling block on a Blanton deal, tweets MLB.com's Todd Zolecki. The chances of the deal dying have increased since yesterday.
You may remember Matt Swartz from such MLBTR projects as the 2012 arbitration projections. Matt's model was very accurate the first time through, and he's made it even better for the 2013 projections. I asked Matt for a sneak peek at 2013 projected salaries for some arbitration eligible trade candidates. He used Dan Szymborski's rest-of-season ZiPS projections to account for the remainder of the 2012 season.
- Hunter Pence: $14.3MM
- Jason Vargas: $8.1MM
- Shin-Soo Choo: $7.6MM
- Chase Headley: $6.1MM
- Geovany Soto: $4.6MM
The Red Sox have mild interest in left-hander Jason Vargas, reports Nick Cafardo of The Boston Globe (on Twitter). The results of their weekend games will determine what Boston does at the trade deadline.
Vargas, 29, has pitched to a 3.76 ERA with 5.9 K/9 and 2.5 BB/9 in 22 starts this season, though he does lead the league with 25 homers allowed. The Red Sox are said to be seeking a rotation upgrade, but coming into today they were in last place in the AL East and 5.5 games back of a Wild Card spot.
Here's the latest from ESPN's Jayson Stark...
- One official who spoke with the Marlins brass estimates that the odds Josh Johnson remains with Miami are "95 percent." The Red Sox, Angels, Rangers, White Sox, Blue Jays, and Royals have all checked in.
- Carlos Lee, Ricky Nolasco, Heath Bell, and Gaby Sanchez are all very available. Other than Johnson, Giancarlo Stanton will be the toughest player to pry away from the Fish.
- The Phillies have talked about trading Cliff Lee following the Cole Hamels extension and they haven't discouraged other teams from inquiring, but their game plan right now is to keep their trio of aces intact.
- Shane Victorino and Joe Blanton are good bets to be dealt and the Phillies will listen on Hunter Pence. They want multiple young big leaguers to plug holes at third base, in the outfield, and in the bullpen in return.
- The Dodgers are in on a number of starting pitchers, including Nolasco, Blanton, Kevin Millwood, and Jason Vargas in addition to Ryan Dempster and Matt Garza. They've also checked in on outfield and first base help, including Victorino and Justin Morneau.
- Clubs have not been assured by the Cubs that Garza will make another start before the trade deadline due to his triceps issue. He's more likely to be dealt in the offseason.
- In the wake of acquiring Wandy Rodriguez, the Pirates are sending signals that they could trade away a starter like Jeff Karstens or Kevin Correia.
- The Twins' asking prices for Morneau ("pricey"), Denard Span ("more pricey"), and Josh Willingham ("it made me laugh") are high. Minnesota insists they will listen on anyone and Stark says Morneau is the bat they're most likely to move. Francisco Liriano is "nearly 100 percent" likely to be traded.
- The Orioles continue to look for pitching, someone they consider a number three starter or better. Garza and Vargas have their eye but Dylan Bundy and Manny Machado are off the table. They've gotten hits on Jake Arrieta but won't move him unless they get a similar young arm with several years of team control remaining in return.
- The Brewers will trade Randy Wolf "for nothing if you take the money," according to one official.
- The Rays have "got a big market" for Wade Davis.