Merrill, 21 in April, was the club’s first-round pick in the 2021 draft and is a consensus top-20 prospect in the sport. The youngster is something of a surprising choice for the role, at least on paper. He’s not yet played a game above Double-A in his big league career, having slashed a solid but unspectacular .277/.326/.444 in 114 games split between the High-A and Double-A levels last year. Perhaps even more importantly, Merrill had never appeared in center field in a professional game until camp opened last month. His professional outfield experience to that point consisted of 45 innings of work in left field that season. Prior to that, his professional work had come almost exclusively at shortstop, though he also made brief cameos at both first and second base.
With all that being said, the club’s decision to go with Merrill in center field on Opening Day is certainly a defensible one. Prospect evaluators around the game are unanimous in their belief in Merrill’s talent, with Baseball America lauding him as a future middle-of-the-order threat who figures to have the power for 30 homers a year while Fangraphs describes him as having “one of the prettiest swings in the minors” with excellent contact abilities. Furthermore, while his lack of upper-level reps at the plate and professional time in center field will certainly raise some eyebrows, Merrill has clearly done everything he can to prove himself ready for a big league opportunity this spring. In 40 plate appearances across 13 games during camp, Merrill slashed an excellent .351/.400/.595 while playing solid defense in center.
Of course, the decision to roster Merrill as the club’s Opening Day center fielder is also the results of a host of other decisions outside of Merrill’s control. Chief among them is the club choosing to part ways with superstar Juan Soto alongside Trent Grisham in a trade with the Yankees that removed two of the club’s three Opening Day starters in the outfield last year from the roster back in December. Since then, the club has been tied to external outfield options including Michael A. Taylor, Kevin Kiermaier, and Tommy Pham. The likes of Taylor and Kiermaier have since signed elsewhere, however, and while there may be some momentum toward a deal with Pham, the 36-year-old veteran hasn’t appeared in center field on a regular basis since 2018, with just 15 starts up the middle in the years since then.
That lack of clear options for the center field job led the Padres to look toward their internal, non-roster pieces for their next center fielder. Fellow prospect Jakob Marsee as well as veterans such as Oscar Mercado and Tim Locastro all joined Merrill as potential solutions in center when camp began last month, though of that group only Mercado was able to keep up with Merrill’s blistering performance this spring and the club recently tipped their hand regarding their decision by including only Merrill, corner bats Jose Azocar and Jurickson Profar, and right fielder Fernando Tatis Jr. as outfielders on their 31-man travel roster for the Seoul Series.
It’s possible Merrill won’t be the only rookie with minimal upper-minors experience on the club’s Opening Day lineup, as the club also included Graham Pauley on their travel roster for the coming series. The Athletic’s Dennis Lin indicated last week that Pauley was likely in position to fill in for veteran third baseman Manny Machado at the hot corner to open the season, as Machado will begin the season at DH while he recovers from elbow surgery, which he underwent back in October. Pauley, 23, was a 13th-round pick by the Padres in the 2022 draft and enjoyed a breakout season last year as he slashed a whopping .308/.393/.539 in 127 games split between the Single-A, High-A, and Double-A levels.
]]>Pham has been linked to San Diego through several recent reports. Kevin Acee of the San Diego Union-Tribune wrote that the team remained “engaged in conversations” with Pham earlier this week, while Jon Heyman of the New York Post noted the Padres were “among teams eying Tommy Pham.” Other outfielders linked to the Padres, namely Adam Duvall and Michael A. Taylor, have now signed elsewhere, while other teams linked to Pham, such as the Diamondbacks and Pirates, have gone in a different direction.
The fit for Pham in San Diego is clear. Jurickson Profar is currently slated to get most of the playing time in left field. The Padres are surely hoping Profar bounces back from his career-worst season in 2023, but it would be nice for manager Mike Shildt to have another option if that doesn’t happen. The team will also need a designated hitter once Manny Machado is ready to return to third base; Pham played 44 games at DH last year for the Mets and D-backs.
Pham previously played for San Diego in 2020 and ’21, and Annie Heilbrunn of the San Diego Union-Tribune reported earlier this offseason that he would be open to a reunion.
As for the White Sox, they should be set in left field and at DH with Andrew Benintendi and Eloy Jiménez, respectively. However, the left-handed rookie Dominic Fletcher could use a platoon partner in right field, and Chicago could use a right-handed bat for the bench. Presumably, Pham is looking to be more than a bench bat and the short side of a platoon; he said as much earlier this winter. Yet, at this point in the offseason, he may have to settle for a limited role, especially if he wants to get in some spring training games before the regular season begins. What’s more, if he plays well for the White Sox, he can earn more playing time, and he can expect to be dealt to a contender before the trade deadline.
]]>Cease has been a trade candidate at least as far back as last summer’s deadline. While Chicago took him off the market at that time, first-year general manager Chris Getz made clear that he was willing to consider offers on virtually everyone on the roster going into the offseason. That made Cease one of the top names of the winter.
Chicago fielded offers early in the offseason before pulling back. The Sox indicated they wanted to wait for the free agent rotation market to play out before aggressively shopping the star righty. Blake Snell and Jordan Montgomery have lingered in free agency longer than anyone anticipated. With Opening Day two weeks away, Chicago seemed to find more urgency to make a move. They’d reportedly talked with the Yankees and Rangers within the past few days, but it is San Diego that gets the deal done.
It’s a massive strike for them just a week before they’ll open the regular season with a two-game set against the Dodgers in South Korea. For much of the offseason, the Padres have gone in the opposite direction. They faced significant payroll constraints that led to the free agent departures of Josh Hader, Seth Lugo, Nick Martinez and Michael Wacha. Snell seems likely to follow.
The biggest loss, of course, came via trade. The Padres dealt Juan Soto to the Yankees before his final year of team control. That both offloaded his arbitration salary — which eventually checked in at $31MM — and brought back a number of controllable starting pitchers to compensate for the free agent departures. Michael King will step into the middle of the rotation. Jhony Brito and Randy Vásquez are candidates for a back-end role. Thorpe came over in that trade and would have been in the rotation mix as well, but he’s now headed to Chicago before throwing a regular season pitch for the Padres.
Despite targeting upper level pitching in the Soto return, San Diego had a largely unproven rotation. Joe Musgrove and Yu Darvish were locked into the top two spots. King was ensured of a job after a strong finish last season with the Yankees, but he’d been a reliever for most of his major league career. He only moved to the starting staff for his final eight appearances beginning at the end of August. The rest of the starting pitching options in the organization have limited MLB experience of any kind.
Cease addresses that lack of experience. The former sixth-round pick has been a fixture of the Sox’s rotation since 2020. Aside from a brief virus-related absence in ’21, he hasn’t missed any time as a major leaguer. Cease leads the majors with 109 starts over the last four seasons.
At his best, Cease has paired that pristine durability with a top-of-the-rotation ceiling. He was dominant two seasons ago, turning in a 2.20 ERA with an excellent 30.4% strikeout rate through 184 innings. He was runner-up behind Justin Verlander in that season’s Cy Young balloting and received some down-ballot MVP consideration.
The 28-year-old didn’t replicate that ace-caliber production last season. He had a pedestrian 4.58 ERA across 177 frames. While some level of regression from a 2.20 mark always seemed likely, his earned run average more than doubling wasn’t expected. That’s partially a reflection of a dramatic swing in Cease’s batted ball fortune. Opponents hit only .260 on balls in play against him in 2022; that spiked 70 points a season ago.
Beyond the ball-in-play results, Cease was a little less overpowering in ’23 than he’d been the previous season. His swinging strike rate dipped from 15% to 13.6%. He lost three percentage points off his strikeout rate, which fell to 27.3%. The average velocity on both his fastball (95.6 MPH) and slider (86.3 MPH) dropped a tick. Those are all still better than average marks but not quite as impressive as his 2022 metrics.
As is often the case, Cease’s true talent ERA very likely falls somewhere in the middle. Going back to the start of 2020, he carries a 3.58 mark in just shy of 600 innings. That has come in a tough home ballpark for pitchers in front of generally lackluster defenses.
At the same time, Cease has never had pristine control of his high-octane stuff. He has walked more than 10% of batters faced in three of the past four seasons, including his Cy Young runner-up campaign. He issued free passes at a 10.1% clip last year. That inconsistent command has kept him from blossoming into a true ace and is part of the reason he’s “only” 16th in innings pitched over the last four seasons despite topping MLB in starts.
It’s debatable but largely immaterial where Cease slots alongside Darvish and Musgrove among San Diego’s top three starters. King moves to the #4 spot, while the Friars now have only one Opening Day rotation job up for grabs. Brito, Vásquez, knuckleballer Matt Waldron and the out-of-options Pedro Avila could each be in the mix for the role.
It’s a renewed push for contention by a San Diego front office that has never shied away from dealing for star talent. Cease becomes the defining addition of the Padre offseason, largely enabled by his affordability. He and the White Sox had agreed to an $8MM salary to avoid arbitration. He’s under control via that process through the 2025 campaign. The Padres can plug him into the rotation for the next two years for what’ll likely be between $20MM and $25MM overall.
RosterResource calculates San Diego’s 2024 player payroll around $167MM, including Cease’s salary. The trade pushes their luxury tax number around $224MM, roughly $13MM below this year’s lowest threshold. The Friars have worked to stay under the tax line after exceeding it in each of the past three seasons. They still have questions about the overall roster depth — particularly in the outfield — but they have some flexibility to continue adding either this spring or at the deadline without pushing into CBT territory.
Landing a pitcher of Cease’s caliber and affordability required parting with a few fairly well-regarded young players. San Diego was never going to trade Ethan Salas or Jackson Merrill and managed to keep young pitchers Dylan Lesko and Robby Snelling out of the deal. Thorpe, Zavala and Iriarte were all generally regarded in the next tier of Padres talents. Baseball America ranked all three between fifth and ninth in the San Diego system. The Athletic’s Keith Law had those players in the 6-9 range on his organizational prospect list.
As a key piece of the Soto return, Thorpe is probably the most well-known of the bunch. A second-round pick in 2022 out of Cal Poly San Luis Obispo, Thorpe had a breakout showing in his first full minor league season. The 6’4″ right-hander worked to a 2.52 ERA in 23 starts between High-A and Double-A last year. He fanned more than a third of opposing hitters against a modest 7.1% walk rate.
Thorpe doesn’t light up radar guns with a fastball that sits in the low-90s. Evaluators credit him with a plus or better changeup and an above-average breaking ball, though. He has shown advanced strike-throwing acumen, although Law writes that his precise command (the ability to spot pitches where he wants them) isn’t as impressive as his control (hitting the strike zone consistently). Baseball America, FanGraphs and ESPN’s Kiley McDaniel all placed Thorpe in the back half of the league’s Top 100 prospects this winter. He’s a potential mid-rotation arm who could impact the Sox as soon as this year.
Iriarte, a 6’2″ righty from Venezuela, could also be part of the major league pitching staff at some point in 2024. The 22-year-old worked 90 1/3 frames across 27 appearances between High-A and Double-A last season. He allowed 3.49 earned runs per nine behind a 33.2% strikeout percentage. He also walked almost 12% of opposing hitters, but there’s clear bat-missing potential.
Evaluators credit Iriarte with upper 90s velocity with a plus slider and a promising but inconsistent changeup. The chance for three above-average to plus offerings gives him significant upside, although evaluators are split on whether he’ll stick as a starting pitcher. He’ll need to refine his secondary stuff and continue to improve his control, but his athleticism gives him the opportunity to do so. FanGraphs slotted Iriarte in the back half of their Top 100 list. The Sox can take their time to afford him plenty of reps in the upper minors.
Zavala, 19, is a further away development flier. The lefty-hitting outfielder was one of the better prospects in the 2020-21 international signing period. He spent most of last season at Low-A Lake Elsinore. Zavala’s .267/.420/.451 batting line is impressive for a player his age, but prospect evaluators are divided on his long-term upside. Law suggests he’s unlikely to stick in center field, while most reports question his pure contact skills. Zavala took plenty of walks but also struck out at an alarming 27.2% clip in Low-A.
Wilson might be the fourth piece of the return, but he should step directly into the big league bullpen. The 29-year-old righty has been a quality reliever in each of the last two seasons. Wilson owns a 3.48 ERA across 106 career innings. He has fanned just over a quarter of opposing hitters against a 10.9% walk rate. Wilson leans heavily on a low-80s breaking ball and sits in the mid-90s with his fastball.
That profile has led to better strikeout and walk numbers versus right-handed batters, but Wilson has gotten decent results against hitters of either handedness. He could step into high-leverage work in a completely open Sox bullpen. The Santa Clara product has exactly two years of service. Chicago controls him through at least 2027, depending on whether they option him to the minors at any point. He won’t be eligible for arbitration until next offseason.
The White Sox had named Cease their Opening Day starter. That’s no longer on the table as they commit even further to a retool. KBO returnee Erick Fedde is perhaps the top pitcher in what might be the weakest rotation in the American League. Michael Soroka, Chris Flexen, Michael Kopech, Garrett Crochet and Jared Shuster are among the other possibilities. Thorpe figures to open the season in Triple-A but could pitch his way into the mix before long.
Chicago could go outside the organization to try to backfill some of their lost innings. Ken Rosenthal of the Athletic reported last night that the Sox had interest in Michael Lorenzen as a potential Cease replacement. Zack Greinke, Jake Odorizzi and old friend Johnny Cueto also remain unsigned.
Iriarte and Wilson are each on the 40-man roster. Thorpe and Zavala won’t be eligible for the Rule 5 draft until the 2025-26 offseason, although Thorpe seems likely to pitch his way onto the MLB roster well before that point. Chicago designated outfielder Peyton Burdick for assignment to open the necessary 40-man spot.
ESPN’s Jeff Passan first reported the Padres were finalizing a trade for Cease. Jon Heyman of the New York Post confirmed a Cease agreement was in place. Jon Morosi of MLB.com was first to report the White Sox were acquiring Thorpe and Iriarte. The Athletic’s Dennis Lin first reported Wilson’s inclusion. Bob Nightengale of USA Today was first with Zavala being in the deal.
Images courtesy of USA Today Sports.
]]>By now, the merits and risks regarding a trade for Cease have been well documented. He’s an affordable — $8MM in 2023, arb-eligible in 2025 — 28-year-old righty with two years of team control who demonstrated his upside with a second-place Cy Young finish in 2022 but struggled through a down year in 2023, when he notched a 4.58 ERA with slightly diminished (but still far better than average) strikeout and velocity numbers. Cease has worse command than one would prefer from a top starting pitcher, which has long been an issue, but he and other Sox hurlers have also been harmed by perennially poor defensive alignments behind them.
Last year’s pedestrian ERA notwithstanding, Cease is a durable power pitcher whom other organizations undoubtedly view as a playoff-caliber starter — if not a true No. 1 then at least a strong No. 2-3 option in a postseason rotation. No pitcher in baseball has started more games than Cease’s 109 dating back to 2020 — his first full season at the MLB level. Even if one were to assume that Cease’s 2022 season was an outlier, career-best campaign while his 2023 ERA was somewhat fluky in nature, a look at his entire body of work over the past three seasons reveals strong overall numbers: 526 2/3 innings of 3.54 ERA ball with a huge 29.8% strikeout rate against an elevated 10.1% walk rate. Fielding-independent metrics tend to support the idea that Cease’s talent level lands somewhere in the mid- to upper-3.00s.
In terms of pure team fit, the Padres are as strong a match as one could conjure up. The Friars’ offseason has been something of a financially motivated reset, but the team isn’t about to enter a full-scale rebuild with Fernando Tatis Jr., Manny Machado, Xander Bogaerts, Yu Darvish and Joe Musgrove all signed long-term. The Padres only have three clear starters at the moment in Musgrove, Darvish and trade acquisition Michael King, who came over from the Yankees in the Juan Soto swap.
Adding Cease to the rotation and cementing the top four spots would create a fifth-starter battle including Matt Waldron, Randy Vasquez, Jhony Brito, Pedro Avila, Jay Groome and others. The team’s chances of competing with that group vying for only the final spot in the rotation, obviously, would be far greater than needing to rely on two names from that unproven group to carry the back end of the staff. (Some of those names, of course, could be included in a theoretical trade package with the White Sox.)
The affordable nature of Cease’s contract surely appeals to a San Diego club that has slashed the present-day cost of its roster by nearly $100MM. That’s doubly true in that Cease’s $8MM salary wouldn’t put the Padres anywhere particularly close to the $237MM luxury-tax threshold they’re clearly hoping to avoid. RosterResource projects San Diego at just over $216MM in luxury obligations. Cease would be a net $7.26MM in luxury considerations, bringing the team to around $223.5MM. That’d still leave some room if president of baseball operations A.J. Preller wants to add Cease and pursue one more free agent outfielder, as has been rumored; the Padres were connected to Adam Duvall, Michael A. Taylor and old friend Tommy Pham earlier this week.
While Preller’s years of frenetic activity on the trade market lead to constant churn in the farm system, the Padres remain strong in that regard. Each of MLB.com, ESPN and Baseball America rank the Padres among the sport’s top six farm systems, due largely to strong drafting and international scouting, in addition to replenishing some of their lost depth in the trade that sent Soto and Trent Grisham to New York. Top prospect Jackson Merrill looks on track to be the team’s Opening Day center fielder and is surely all but untouchable alongside ballyhooed catcher Ethan Salas. But the Friars have as many as six other prospects who’ve drawn top-100 fanfare, in addition to a slew of near-MLB-ready talent that could entice the ChiSox to part with Cease.
]]>“Jackson Merrill is going to Korea,” Shildt told reporters, in reference to San Diego’s season-opening series in Seoul against the Dodgers next week (link via AJ Cassavell of MLB.com). “He’s earned his way on the plane. He’s earned what’s coming after the plane.”
That’s not quite a declaration that the Padres are calling him up. San Diego and Los Angeles are allowed to bring 31 players with them to Seoul, although only 26 will be on the active roster for games. That theoretically leaves open the possibility of Merrill traveling with the team and not being activated for the series. Yet Shildt’s not particularly subtle nod to “what’s coming after” the flight is all but a formal announcement that he will break camp. As Cassavell notes, the Padres would likely have had Merrill continue working in minor league camp this week if they weren’t planning to call him up.
A first-round pick out of a Maryland high school in 2021, Merrill is on track to be San Diego’s Opening Day center fielder. That’s a position he has never played in a minor league game. He made five starts in left field with Double-A San Antonio a year ago. Other than that, his entire professional experience had come on the infield. With San Diego having far more infield depth than outfielders, Merrill spent the offseason working as an outfielder. He has played on the grass in Spring Training and evidently impressed the organization enough defensively.
Merrill has limited experience facing upper level pitching. He has never played in Triple-A and only had 46 games of Double-A experience. Merrill put up a solid .273/.348/.444 line in 211 plate appearances in a pitcher-friendly setting at that level. He has impressed in Spring Training, punctuating a recent hot streak with an opposite-field homer off Zac Gallen this afternoon. Merrill is now up to a .343/.395/.600 slash with three walks and strikeouts apiece in exhibition play.
The Padres entered camp with only three outfielders on the 40-man roster: Fernando Tatis Jr., José Azocar and Jurickson Profar. San Diego would need to select Merrill’s contract but can do so without a corresponding move, as they only have 37 players on the 40-man roster.
]]>Taylor is the only viable everyday center fielder still on the open market. He remains one of the sport’s top defensive outfielders as he nears his 33rd birthday. By measure of Defensive Runs Saved and Outs Above Average, Taylor rated anywhere between five to seven runs above par in nearly 1000 innings of center field work for the Twins a year ago. DRS has credited him with 65 runs saved at the outfield’s most important spot over his decade in the major leagues.
That’s sufficient to make Taylor a viable bottom-of-the-lineup regular so long as he’s contributing anything offensively. He did enough at the plate in Minnesota, connecting on a personal-high 21 home runs and stealing 13 bases over 388 plate appearances. Taylor has some power, although it comes with a lot of empty at-bats. He punched out more than a third of the time en route to a .220 average and very poor .278 on-base mark. Taylor has gotten on base less than 30% of the time in three of his last four seasons.
The offensive inconsistency has led teams to shy away from his asking price. The Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal wrote last week that Taylor views himself similarly to fellow glove-first center fielders Kevin Kiermaier and Harrison Bader, each of whom signed for one year and $10.5MM earlier this offseason. While he is coming off a superior platform year to Bader and doesn’t have the same injury history as Kiermiaer, it’s hard to envision Taylor finding that kind of salary a few from Opening Day.
That’s particularly true from a San Diego team that has spent much of the offseason cutting payroll. From a roster perspective, though, the Padres might be the most straightforward fit. José Azocar is a .249/.292/.341 hitter in 153 big league contests. He has rated as a quality defender in his own right, but he might have an even lighter bat than Taylor does.
The Padres will probably want to keep Azocar in a fourth outfield capacity. As things stand, that’d likely mean calling upon Jackson Merrill as their starting center fielder. Merrill, 20, hasn’t played above Double-A. Primarily a shortstop prospect, he has worked in the outfield this spring. The lefty-hitting Merrill is one of the sport’s top minor league talents, but relying on him as a starting center fielder would be a gamble even for a San Diego team that is generally aggressive about promoting its prospects.
Merrill has zero minor league innings at the position. That’s on top of his limited experience facing advanced pitching. The former first-round pick has held his own at the plate this spring, hitting .286/.355/.357 in 31 trips to the plate. He’s drawn three walks while striking out twice but only has two extra-base hits (both doubles).
Further complicating matters, the Padres don’t have a clear solution in left field. Even if the Friars feel Merrill is ready to face big league arms, they could play him in left to accommodate a Taylor signing. That’d bump Jurickson Profar to the bench. So too would signing one of Duvall of Pham, both of whom are righty-hitting corner options. They’re similarly valuable players, as MLBTR’s Nick Deeds explored over the weekend. Duvall brings more power to the table, while Pham is more consistent at getting on base.
In any case, the Padres will need to make some kind of outfield transaction in the next few days. Azocar, Profar and Fernando Tatis Jr. are the only outfielders on the 40-man roster. Minor league signees Óscar Mercado, Tyler Wade and Brad Miller remain on the major league side of camp as possible bench additions.
San Diego is faced with those questions sooner than almost anyone else. They begin their regular season with a two-game series against the Dodgers in South Korea on March 20-21. The Padres will fly to Seoul two days from now. Acee notes that if they do sign a veteran outfielder, that player would likely skip the Korea series and remain in minor league camp to build up for the rest of the season.
]]>Ahmed, 34 later this week, spent the past ten seasons in Arizona as a regular fixture at shortstop, earning back-to-back Gold Glove awards for his superlative defense in 2018 and 2019. He’s struggled to stay on the field in recent years, drawing just 264 trips to the plate between the past two seasons, and in that time slashed a paltry .216/.258/.332. Rough as his last two seasons were, Ahmed’s non-roster deal with the Giants came with the opportunity to earn a regular role in San Francisco, and the veteran has made the most of that opportunity by slashing an incredible .556/.667/1.222 in his 12 trips to the plate this spring without recording a strikeout across his four appearances.
Luciano, by contrast, has hit a paltry .071/.188/.071 in six games this spring, striking out in 56.3% of his plate appearances without recording an extra-base hit. While numbers during Spring Training must be taken with a grain of salt for a number of reasons and it’s worth noting that Luciano was slowed by a hamstring issue early in camp, it would nonetheless be understandable if the Giants felt that Luciano’s weak results this spring indicated that the 22-year-old needs more development time at the Triple-A level. Luciano made his big league debut with San Francisco last year but struggled at the plate in his cup of coffee, hitting just .231/.333/.308 with a 37.8% strikeout rate in 45 trips to the plate.
More from around the NL West…
Miller, 34, is coming off a couple of mostly lost seasons with the Rangers. He made separate trips to the injured list last year due to a right oblique strain and left hamstring strain. He only got into 27 games and hit .214/.328/.339 in that time. 2022 was a similar situation as he got into 81 games and hit just .212/.270/.320, missing time due to right hip issues and a neck strain.
Prior to that, he was coming off a strong three-year run, which is what led to his two-year, $10MM pact in Texas. From 2019 to 2021, he suited up for Cleveland, Philadelphia and St. Louis, hitting 40 home runs in those three seasons, one of which was shortened to 60 games. His 28.3% strikeout rate was a bit high but he also drew walks at an 11.8% clip. His combined .236/.331/.480 slash line over that three-year period translated to a wRC+ of 114, indicating he was 14% above league average.
Defensively, Miller has bounced all over the diamond, having played all four infield spots in his career as well as all three outfield positions. But he has hardly played shortstop since 2016, hasn’t played center at all since 2015 and his last second base appearance was in 2021. He’s probably best suited to the four corner spots, which could still make him a fit for the Padres.
The Friars have a wide open outfield, apart from Fernando Tatis Jr. being in right field. Non-roster invitees like Jackson Merrill, Jakob Marsee, Calvin Mitchell and Óscar Mercado appear to be competing for outfield playing time with guys like Jurickson Profar and José Azocar. On the infield corners, Jake Cronenworth figures to be at first and Manny Machado at third. There’s some uncertainty with the latter since he’s coming back from elbow surgery but he seems on track to be ready by Opening Day.
Infielders Eguy Rosario and Matthew Batten are on the 40-man roster but both have options, as does Azocar. The Padres only have 37 players on their 40-man roster and Tucupita Marcano will likely wind up on the 60-day IL at some point due to a torn ACL that’s going to keep him out until midseason. If the Friars wanted to, they could select someone like Miller to serve in a bench role, even if they also add a couple of those NRIs to fill out the outfield. Meanwhile, the optionable players could be sent to the minors for regular reps. The club also doesn’t have a strict designated hitter on the roster, which opens up plenty of opportunities for someone in this cluster.
Miller is also a lefty hitter with strong platoon splits who could perhaps be utilized in a specialized role. He has slashed .242/.325/.438 against righties in his career for a wRC+ of 109, but just .216/.273/.334 against southpaws for a 67 wRC+. Each of Azocar, Rosario, Batten and Mercado hit from the right side, which could give manager Mike Shildt some opportunities to mix and match as needed. But first, Miller will need to earn himself a spot on the roster after a couple of injury-marred campaigns.
]]>Lin first reported the Padres had given some consideration to Pham at the beginning of the month. While San Diego has since added Jurickson Profar on a $1MM pact, that’s not a huge impediment to bringing in another outfielder. San Diego still has only three outfielders on the 40-man roster: Fernando Tatis Jr., José Azócar and Profar.
Regardless of whether they add anyone else, they’re sorting through a few non-roster players battling in camp. None is more exciting than 20-year-old Jackson Merrill. San Diego is working out the top shortstop prospect in the outfield this spring. Kevin Acee of the San Diego Union-Tribune wrote this afternoon that Merrill seems increasingly likely to secure a spot on the Opening Day roster.
The Padres wouldn’t call Merrill up if they weren’t going to give him everyday run. He’d be making the jump past Triple-A. The former first-round pick split last year between High-A and Double-A. Merrill put up a .273/.338/.444 line in 211 plate appearances with Double-A San Antonio. That’s solid work in the pitcher-friendly Texas League, although it doesn’t guarantee he’ll find success against big league pitching right away.
Depending on potential acquisitions, the Padres could offer Merrill regular run in either left or center field. Pham would be limited to left field. Landing him would kick Profar to the bench and provide an upgrade to the lineup. Pham is coming off a .256/.328/.446 slash with 16 homers and 22 steals through 481 plate appearances between the Mets and Diamondbacks. He’s a known quantity for the front office after playing in San Diego from 2020-21.
Adding a corner outfielder would leave Merrill competing with Azócar and perhaps Jakob Marsee for the center field job. Azócar is a good runner and defensive specialist who has hit .249/.292/.341 in 153 big league games. Marsee, 22, only has 16 games above High-A. He posted excellent numbers at High-A Fort Wayne a year ago, running a .273/.413/.425 line with 41 steals and more walks than strikeouts. Prospect evaluators generally rank him as a solid but not elite minor league talent. He’s widely projected as a fourth outfielder based on strong strike zone awareness with limited power.
Each of Oscar Mercado, Bryce Johnson, Cal Mitchell and Tim Locastro are in camp on minor league deals. None of them is likely to step into an everyday role, but there should be room for at least one to secure a bench spot. Michael A. Taylor is the only potential regular center fielder left on the free agent market. Pham, Adam Duvall and Eddie Rosario are the top corner options. There’s still some activity on the trade front, as this week’s deal sending Manuel Margot to Minnesota demonstrates. While the Padres have been loosely connected to Jarren Duran and Sal Frelick in trade rumors, there’s no indication they made any headway in those discussions.
]]>Locastro, 31, spent the 2023 season with the Mets organization, appearing in 43 big league games and another 19 minor league contests while also missing time with a thumb injury that required surgery. He received just 67 plate appearances in his 43 big league games — a reflection of his prowess as a pinch-runner and defensive replacement but generally light bat at the plate. Locastro batted .232/.338/.393 in his small sample of MLB work, bringing his career line to .228/.327/.337 in 616 MLB plate appearances.
While Locastro doesn’t walk much (5.8%), he’s generally had solid bat-to-ball skills (20.8% strikeout rate) and has also made an artform out of bolstering his OBP by crowding the plate and leaving himself susceptible to being plunked by opponents. It’s perhaps a dubious (and painful) “skill” to master, but Locastro has been hit in a borderline comical 7% of his MLB plate appearances. That’s allowed him to further capitalize on his elite speed; he’s swiped 45 bags in 50 attempts as a big leaguer.
Locastro has lost a bit of that speed as he’s aged but still remains among the game’s fastest players. Statcast credited him as the very fastest player in MLB from 2019-21 and ranked him in the 99th percentile in 2022, but he was “only” in the 93rd percentile of big leaguers in terms of sprint speed in 2023.
The Padres already have a heavily right-handed-hitting roster, and Locastro would further add to that if he were to make the roster. But he’s an elite source of speed off the bench who can handle all three outfield spots, and the Friars are perilously thin on outfield depth — regardless of handedness. At the moment, the Padres have only three outfielders on the 40-man roster: Fernando Tatis Jr., Jose Azocar and Jurickson Profar.
Locastro joins Oscar Mercado as a veteran non-roster option in camp, as well as former big leaguers Cal Mitchell and Bryce Johnson (who each have far less MLB experience). There’s a chance that top shortstop prospect Jackson Merrill will break camp with the club as a left fielder as well, but the 20-year-old has just 46 games above A-ball and none in Triple-A, so he could also head to the minors to begin the season.
]]>Walker will be 34 on Opening Day 2025, so hitting the market at something of an advanced age is likely to limit his chances at an overly lengthy contract. He is a first base-only player, yet with the benefit of being baseball’s best defensive first baseman, as the winner of the last two Fielding Bible Awards and Gold Gloves at the position. To go along with his superb glove, Walker has also hit .253/.332/.463 with 115 homers over 2619 plate appearances since the start of the 2019 season, translating to a 112 wRC+. (Over the last two seasons in particular, Walker has 69 homers and a 112 wRC+.)
It will be interesting to see if the D’Backs could work out a way to re-sign Walker, as the team is projected for a club record $143MM payroll heading into 2024, but a decent chunk of money is coming off the books next offseason. This could provide an opening for a reunion between the D’Backs and the underrated first baseman, if an extension isn’t reached before Walker even gets to free agency.
More from around the NL West…
Hernandez, 32, opened the 2024 season as the starting shortstop for the Red Sox, though he struggled both with the glove and at the plate in the role. After slashing .222/.279/.320 in 323 trips to the plate with Boston in the first half of the season, the club shipped Hernandez to the Dodgers for the stretch run. It was a homecoming for Hernandez, who had already played in L.A. for six seasons before signing in Boston prior to the 2021 season via free agency, and in his return to the Dodgers he found some success in a bench role. Hernandez slashed a roughly league average .262/.308/.423 down the stretch in L.A. while bouncing between every spot on the diamond except for catcher.
The veteran has generally been utilized as a bench bat throughout his career, filling in all over the diamond thanks to his versatility and often getting reps against southpaws due to a career .801 OPS against left-handed pitching. That being said, Hernandez typically provides slightly below average offense overall. Since first joining the Dodgers prior to the 2015 season, Hernandez sports a career slash line of .239/.310/.408, good for a wRC+ of 93. That lack of offensive presence has typically kept him from securing a full-time role; 2023 was just the second season of Hernandez’s career where he totaled 500 plate appearances in a season despite routinely appearing in 130 or more games for his club.
Looking at the reported suitors for Hernandez’s services, the Angels are perhaps the least surprising given their previously reported interest in the 32-year-old. It’s easy to see why the Halos would have interest in Hernandez’s services. While the club has plenty of interesting pieces backing up superstar Mike Trout in the lineup, the club’s lineup offers little in the way of certainty. Trout and former star slugger Anthony Rendon have been plagued by injury woes in recent years that have kept both veterans off the field more often than not, while exciting youngsters like Zach Neto and Nolan Schanuel have potential but are hardly a guarantee to produce in the majors after short stays in the minor leagues.
Hernandez’s versatility would allow him to cover for virtually any player in the Anaheim lineup in the event of injury or under-performance, and the DH spot left open by the departure of Shohei Ohtani could provide Hernandez a path to semi-regular at-bats even in the event the club’s starting lineup manages to stay healthy and effective. Hernandez’s versatility could also allow the club to offer more consistency to 26-year-old infielder Luis Rengifo, who appears poised to enter the year as the club’s starting second baseman but appeared at six different positions in 2023.
The other three suitors for Hernandez’s services had not been publicly connected to the veteran previously. That being said, each of them could make plenty of sense as a fit for the utility man. The Padres, in particular, are in clear need of outfield depth after entering the spring with just two outfielders on their 40-man roster in Fernando Tatis Jr. and Jose Azocar. They’ve added Jurickson Profar on a big league deal since then and have non-roster invitees such as Oscar Mercado attempting to earn a roster spot in Spring Training, but Hernandez would offer the club a steady, veteran presence off the bench who can handle all three outfield spots and could take pressure off prospects like Jackson Merrill and Jakob Marsee to prove themselves ready for regular big league action.
The roster fit for Hernandez in Minnesota and San Francisco is a little less obvious, as both clubs already have crowded positional mixes. With that being said, the presence of Hernandez could provide the Giants with some veteran stability at shortstop should youngster Marco Luciano not hit the ground running at the position, and Hernandez’s right-handed bat could serve as a strong complement to an outfield featuring a trio of lefty regulars in Michael Conforto, Jung Hoo Lee, and Mike Yastrzemski.
Meanwhile, the Twins have a several young lefty bats in their lineup such as Edouard Julien, Alex Kirilloff, and Matt Wallner. Adding Hernandez to the club’s positional mix would give the club a right-handed bat to complement those youngsters while also providing a clear backup option in center field should oft-injured star Byron Buxton return to the shelf at some point this season. Buxton also isn’t the only piece on the Twins’ roster that has struggled with injuries in recent years, as each of Kirilloff, Royce Lewis, and Carlos Correa also dealt with injury woes last season. While it might be hard for Minnesota to fit Hernandez on their roster as things stand, the club could attempt to clear roster space by shopping fellow utility player Kyle Farmer or even simply option Jose Miranda, who figured to serve as a right-handed bat off the club’s bench this year, to Triple-A to open the season.
]]>Hosmer, now 34, was one of many high-profile prospects in the Royals’ system, going back almost a couple of decades. The club leaned into a lengthy period of tanking in the early parts of this century, losing at least 87 games in nine straight seasons from 2004 to 2012. Over that time, they were able to pile up young talent in their farm system thanks to some strong draft picks. The deepest part of the rebuild was 2004 to 2007, with the club losing at least 93 games in each of those campaigns, but also getting a top-three pick in the draft for four straight years.
Those four picks were used on Alex Gordon, Luke Hochevar, Mike Moustakas and Hosmer. Those players combined with other youngsters like Lorenzo Cain, Salvador Pérez and Yordano Ventura to form a promising young core that the club was hoping to use to return to prominence.
Hosmer hit well on his way up the minor league ladder and was considered one of the top 10 prospects in the game going into 2011. He made a strong debut that year and showcased some tendencies that would go on to define his career, namely an ability to avoid strikeouts but also an inability to get under the ball. He didn’t walk much either, so the ball was often in play, with his numbers swaying from year to year depending on whether he was finding holes or not.
He only struck out in 14.6% of his plate appearances in his rookie season, well below that year’s league average of 18.6%. But 49.7% of his balls in play were pounded into the ground, noticeably above the 44.4% league average. Regardless, he still hit 19 home runs and slashed .293/.334/.465 for a wRC+ of 113.
In 2012, he suffered through a sophomore slump, hitting just .232/.304/.359 for a wRC+ of 80. Part of that was batted ball luck, as his BABIP dropped to .255 from .314 the year prior. But his grounder rate also ticked up to 53.6% and he only hit 14 homers. These sorts of oscillations continued into the next few years. In 2013, his batting average was up at .302 and he hit 17 homers, but then those numbers dipped to .270 and just nine long balls in 2014.
Despite the challenges for Hosmer in the latter year, the club’s planned return to contention finally clicked in a big way. The Royals went all the way to the World Series that year, though they ultimate were felled by the Giants in seven games. Hosmer was a big part of that run, as he hit .351/.439/.544 that postseason.
Just about everything went right the next year, despite Hosmer still putting 52% of batted balls into the dirt. He also hit 18 homers and slashed .297/.363/.459 for a wRC+ of 124. The Royals went back to the World Series and finished the job this time, taking down the Mets in five games to hoist their first trophy since 1985.
The club slipped near .500 in the next two seasons as the up-and-down performance continued for Hosmer. His bat dipped closer to league average in 2016, though he rebounded with arguably the best season of his career in 2017. His grounder rate was still very high at 55.6%, but he managed to park the ball over the fence 25 times and slashed .318/.385/.498 for a wRC+ of 135.
That was excellent timing for a career year, as that was his platform season for his first trip into free agency. Despite the inconsistent performance, the Padres took a chance on him, agreeing to an eight-year, $144MM deal. In addition to the offensive questions, his defensive metrics were never strong, in spite of his four Gold Glove awards while with the Royals. But the Padres had been undergoing their own period of insignificance, having just finished the seventh of what would eventually be nine straight losing seasons. The signing of Hosmer, the largest deal in franchise history at the time, was meant to signal an end of the rebuild and a return to relevance.
Unfortunately, the deal quickly went south, as Hosmer’s bat was around league average for most of his time in San Diego. From 2018 through 2021, he hit .264/.323/.415, translating to a wRC+ of 99. He was often the subject of trade rumors in that time, as the Friars looked to get out from under the deal. He was going to be sent to the Nationals as part of the deal that sent Juan Soto to San Diego, but Hosmer had a limited no-trade clause that allowed him to block the deal. That deal went through with Luke Voit taking Hosmer’s place, though Hoz was flipped to the Red Sox instead, with that club not covered by his clause. The Padres ate the remainder of Hosmer’s contract, apart from the league minimum, and included a couple of prospects in order to get Jay Groome from Boston.
A stint on the injured list due to some back inflammation limited him to just 14 games with the Sox after the deal and they released him in the offseason to clear a path for prospect Triston Casas. The Cubs took a flier on Hosmer, which was essentially a free look since the Padres were still on the hook for his salary. But he hit poorly in 31 games as a Cub last year, producing a batting line of .234/.280/.330, and was released in May. He didn’t latch on elsewhere and has now decided to officially call it a career.
Though there were some ups and downs, Hosmer still has plenty of accolades on his ledger, including four Gold Gloves, a Silver Slugger Award, an All-Star appearance and a World Series ring. He also won the World Baseball Classic with Team USA in 2017. He racked up 1,753 hits in his MLB career, including 322 doubles, 20 triples and 198 home runs. He scored 812 runs and drove in 893. Baseball Reference lists his career earnings just under $175MM. We at MLBTR salute Hosmer on a fine career and wish him the best in his next steps.
]]>Davis, 31, has pitched in parts of five MLB seasons. The Cal-Bakersfield product got to the big leagues each year between 2018-22 and tallied 136 appearances between the Phillies, Pirates, Red Sox and Twins. Davis turned in a solid 4.15 ERA as a rookie with Philadelphia. He allowed more than five earned runs per nine in each of the following four seasons.
That includes a 5.79 mark over a career-high 56 innings two years ago. Davis spent the vast majority of that year in Boston before a late-season cameo with the Twins. He punched out a solid 24.2% of hitters but issued walks at a near-13% rate. That proved an ominous lead-up to a dreadful season in Triple-A.
Davis inked a minor league pact with the Astros. Assigned to Triple-A Sugar Land, he pitched in 20 games. Over 25 contests, he was tagged for 11.22 earned runs per nine. His control completely evaporated. Davis walked more than a quarter of batters faced and was released in June. He issued 11 more walks in 18 1/3 innings of winter ball in the Dominican Republic, although he nevertheless managed a 2.45 ERA there and impressed San Diego evaluators enough to get another non-roster look.
Reks, a left-handed hitter, logged brief MLB action with the Dodgers and Rangers between 2021-22. He signed with the KBO’s Lotte Giants midway through the ’22 campaign. Reks turned in an impressive .330/.410/.495 slash with Lotte, earning a new contract over the offseason. His follow-up KBO campaign didn’t go as well. Reks got out to a .246/.338/.345 start while battling a knee injury. Lotte released him in June.
The Padres will add him to the organization, likely sending him to Triple-A El Paso to open the season. Reks owns a .290/.388/.537 line over 902 plate appearances at the level. That’s partially a reflection of the hitter-friendly Pacific Coast League but is strong output in any case. Hitting at something approaching that level for El Paso could get him a midseason look in what currently projects as a thin San Diego outfield.
]]>Dickerson, 19, was a 12th-round pick by the Padres in the 2023 draft out of Ocean Lakes High School in Virginia. Dickerson received a bonus of $500K, equivalent to that of a fourth-round pick. The southpaw did not appear in a game for the Padres last year, meaning his Tigers debut will also be his professional debut. Baseball America recently ranked Dickerson as the #22 prospect in the San Diego farm system entering the 2024 campaign, noting that the lefty projects to have a high-velocity fastball and an above-average curveball once his 6-foot-6 frame fills out, giving him a chance to be a #4 starter or future bullpen arm depending on the development of his changeup.
For the Tigers, the addition of Dickerson adds another young arm to a system that already features a top pitching prospect in Jackson Jobe as well as lower-level arms such as Ty Madden and Troy Melton. That’s in addition to the stable of young arms contributing to the club at the big league level, led by southpaw Tarik Skubal along with the likes of Casey Mize, Matt Manning, and Alex Faedo. BA suggests that Dickerson could be a candidate to skip rookie ball and debut at the Low-A level this year.
In exchange for parting ways with Dickerson, the Padres will receive $500K in international bonus pool money, an amount identical to the bonus San Diego signed Dickerson for last summer. The Tigers opened the 2024 international signing period with a bonus pool of $6,520,000 while the Padres opened with a pool of just $4,652,000, tied with the Phillies, Rangers, and Yankees for the smallest among all thirty clubs. The trade, in effect, recoups half of the $1MM in bonus pool space the Padres forfeited by signing shortstop Xander Bogaerts last winter. The vast majority of the club’s bonus pool space for the 2024 signing period was spent on shortstop Leodalis De Vries, who the Padres signed for a $4.2MM bonus last month.
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