Seager, 30 next month, won World Series MVP honors during the club’s title run in the fall and slashed an excellent .327/.390/.623 en route to his fourth All Star appearance and a second-place finish in AL MVP voting. Jung, meanwhile, made his first career All Star appearance and finish fourth in AL Rookie of the Year voting on the heels of a solid rookie campaign that saw him hit a respectable .266/.315/.467 in 122 games. Losing either player for an extended period would be a significant blow to the Rangers’ chances in a competitive AL West that’s seen the Astros add star closer Josh Hader while seeming also pursuing two-time Cy Young award winner Blake Snell while the Mariners have completely retooled their starting lineup to add threatening players such as Jorge Polanco and former Ranger Mitch Garver.
Of course, the Rangers have versatile youngster Ezequiel Duran able to help out on the left side of the infield if either Jung or Seager were to open the season on the shelf. Duran, 25 in May, slashed a solid .276/.324/.443 in 439 trips to the plate last year while splitting time between all four infield spots and both outfield corners. With that being said, Duran could already be tabbed to cover for first baseman Nathaniel Lowe, who is also questionable for Opening Day due to an oblique strain. Aside from Duran, the Rangers have Jose Barrero and Josh Smith as infield depth options should Seager, Jung, and Lowe start the season on the shelf.
More from Rangers camp…
Ken Rosenthal of the Athletic reports that the Sox and Rangers have had recent conversations regarding Cease. Rosenthal indicates that Chicago seems to be “getting more serious” about dealing the hard-throwing righty this spring.
Manager Pedro Grifol demurred this evening when asked whether he still expected Cease to start for the Sox on Opening Day. “I don’t know. I mean, how am I supposed to know that,” he asked rhetorically (via Scott Merkin of MLB.com). “I don’t know what’s going to happen out there. I don’t know where other teams are, what their urgency is. … I leave that to our major league scouts, our general manager, the front office.”
While the Yankees’ renewed interest in Cease is tied to Gerrit Cole’s MRI, Texas hasn’t dealt with any recent injuries to their rotation. Yet they went into camp knowing that three of their top starters — Jacob deGrom, Max Scherzer and Tyler Mahle — were going to begin the year on the shelf. Mahle and deGrom seem likely to be out past the All-Star Break as they work back from last year’s respective Tommy John procedures. Scherzer underwent back surgery in December and is expected to be sidelined into June.
That puts a lot of pressure on the rest of the pitching staff to hold the fort for the season’s first couple months. The Rangers have a front four of Nathan Eovaldi, Jon Gray, Dane Dunning and Andrew Heaney. Left-hander Cody Bradford is the favorite for the #5 job to open the season. Texas optioned Cole Winn over the weekend, taking him out of the mix for an Opening Day job. Owen White and Zak Kent are on the 40-man roster but have a combined two MLB appearances between them (both by White). José Ureña and Adrian Sampson are in camp on non-roster deals but should be behind Bradford on the depth chart.
If healthy, that’s still a solid front four. Yet there’s a fair amount of injury risk with much of that group. Eovaldi has twice undergone Tommy John surgery in his career. Gray has been on the injured list four times in his two seasons as a Ranger. Heaney was healthy last season but lost a good chunk of 2022 to shoulder problems. Even Dunning has a Tommy John surgery in his history, although he has been durable and quite effective for the last three seasons.
Even if that entire group stays healthy, Texas would benefit from another arm who can push Bradford to a long relief role. The southpaw turned in a 5.30 ERA in his first 56 big league frames a year ago. He has excellent control but struggled with home runs last season. That’s likely to be a recurring concern as a fly-ball pitcher without overpowering stuff. His fastball averaged 90.4 MPH.
To his credit, the Baylor product has pitched well this spring. Bradford has rattled off 11 innings of three-run ball, fanning nine against a pair of walks. Still, that’s unlikely to deter the front office from considering ways to upgrade the staff as they look to defend the first World Series in franchise history.
The Sox’s asking price on Cease has remained high, which is why he’s still in Chicago two weeks from Opening Day. The 2022 AL Cy Young runner-up is coming off a down year, turning in a 4.58 ERA over 177 innings. With mid-90s velocity and a strikeout rate that sat above 27% last season, he’s a clear rebound candidate. Cease is under arbitration control for two more years and will make $8MM in 2024. That affordability makes him an attractive alternative to top remaining free agents Blake Snell and Jordan Montgomery. The Rangers have had a fairly quiet offseason, thanks in part to trepidation about the long-term viability of their TV deal with Bally Sports.
]]>It seems as though players remain skeptical of the idea that certain breaking balls are creating an injury problem in the league, with Chris McCosky of The Detroit News noting that several Tigers pitchers seemed to hold reservations regarding the concept. Southpaw Tarik Skubal told McCosky that he believes velocity to have “more of a correlation” with injury than specific pitches, while adding that he doesn’t believe “any one thing” has led to the increase in pitcher injuries in recent years. One of the game’s most promising young lefties, Skubal was limited to just 36 starts across the past two seasons by flexor-tendon surgery. For their part, Rosenthal and Sarris note in their own article that many pitchers in the big leagues view injuries as an “occupational hazard” and are unbothered by the spiking injury rates around the game.
Those hurlers aren’t alone in uncertainty regarding Meister’s assertion, with Rosenthal and Sarris pointing out that while Meister suggests that increased grip strength is being used to improve spin rates at the expense of pitcher health, one pitching coach noted that “research is divided” on the correlation between grip strength and spin rates. Regardless of its cause, there’s no doubt that pitchers have been facing more injuries in recent years. Rosenthal and Sarris note that, per Meister, he operated upon around 230 elbow ligaments in 2023 and that this year is “way ahead” of that same pace. Lucas Giolito, Kodai Senga, and Justin Verlander are among the pitchers who have dealt with elbow and shoulder issues this spring, while the likes of Jacob deGrom, Max Scherzer, Shane McClanahan, Brandon Woodruff and Shohei Ohtani are among the many top pitchers who will be sidelined for at least the first half of the 2024 campaign (if not longer) after undergoing surgery last year.
More injury-related notes from around the league…
It wasn’t long ago that Barrero was seen as a building block prospect, with Baseball America ranking him as the 33rd-best minor leaguer in the sport prior to the 2022 season. However, Barrero struggled badly at the plate in both Triple-A and in the big leagues in 2022, even though he got back on track in the minors with a nice .258/.333/.540 slash line with Triple-A Louisville in 2023. Barrero is now out of minor league options, and since several other Reds infielders have now passed him on the depth chart, Cincinnati apparently viewed the 25-year-old as expendable.
Barrero has hit only .186/.242/.255 over 447 career plate appearances in the majors, and it remains to be seen if he can produce even passable numbers against big league pitching. Still, it wouldn’t be the first time that a post-hype prospect has become a late bloomer after a move to a new organization, and Barrero’s Triple-A numbers indicate that he hasn’t entirely lost his batting eye.
Even beyond the hitting contributions, Barrero also offers good speed (69 steals in 87 attempts during his minor league career) and quality defense at multiple positions. Barrero has mostly played shortstop during his pro career, but has also gotten some action as a second baseman and even in center field, as the Reds looked for creative ways to find playing time for their many infielders.
Barrero’s versatility is a benefit to a Rangers team that has some early questions within their infield. First baseman Nathaniel Lowe is battling an oblique strain and might need to start the season on the 10-day injured list. Josh Jung was sidelined with a minor calf strain three weeks ago and is showing improvement, though isn’t yet back to full baseball activity. The duo of Ezequiel Duran and Josh H. Smith can cover third base if Jung needs to miss any regular-season time, though Duran might be needed at first base in Lowe’s absence, Barrero can help pick up the slack.
Matt Duffy and Jared Walsh are also in camp on minor league deals and top prospect Justin Foscue seems ready for his MLB debut, though Barrero’s presence now gives the Rangers more depth to work with as Opening Day approaches. Since Barrero is out of options, Texas would have to either carry him on the 26-man roster or expose him to waivers in order to send him back down to Triple-A, and this status could make it a little tricky for Barrero to break camp with the team depending on how the Rangers want to line up their roster.
]]>The Angels were linked to Snell back in December, with Susan Slusser of the San Francisco Chronicle writing at the time that Snell was “their priority” as a front-of-the-rotation pitcher to replace Shohei Ohtani. There hasn’t been much public movement between the two sides since, though the Halos also haven’t done anything else to upgrade their rotation, as their offseason pitching moves have been largely focused on bullpen additions. The Angels have traditionally been reluctant to sign pitchers to big multi-year commitments, though since Snell is reportedly open to taking a shorter-term contract (likely with at least one opt-out clause), this could help find common ground towards a landing spot in Anaheim.
Other items from around the AL West…
Jeff Wilson of RangersToday.com adds that the team provided a rough, initial timetable for Lowe of three to four weeks. That generally aligns with the timeframe that’s common for most oblique injuries of note; even Grade 1 strains tend to sideline players for around a month. Presumably, the Rangers will provide further updates as camp progresses. Lowe was just lifted from Thursday’s Cactus League game after reporting some tightness in his side to the team’s training staff.
Texas has sufficient infield depth to withstand a short-term loss of Lowe, but his subtraction from the lineup would still be a notable hit to the team’s offense. While his 2023 performance (.262/.360/.414, 17 homers, 114 wRC+) wasn’t nearly as strong as his outstanding breakout campaign in 2022 (.302/.358/.492, 27 homers, 141 wRC+), Lowe was still one of the most productive hitters in a stacked Rangers lineup.
In the event that Lowe opens the year on the injured list, there are a number of routes the Rangers could go. Lowe has taken a whopping 94.2% of the team’s plate appearances at first base over the past three seasons, so Texas hasn’t needed to replace him too often. Utilityman Ezequiel Duran and catcher Sam Huff have both seen very brief time at first base on the rare days Lowe has been given a breather. The Rangers have bat-first infield prospect Justin Foscue in camp, and he’s already on the 40-man roster, so he’d also be an option to make his debut and take some reps at first base. Former Angels first baseman Jared Walsh is also in camp as a non-roster invitee and has thus far had a big showing in an obviously limited sample (7-for-17 with a double, a homer, three walks and four strikeouts).
The Rangers acquired Lowe from the Rays in a rare trade that’s gone poorly for Tampa Bay — at least thus far. In three seasons as Texas’ primary first baseman, Lowe has slashed .276/.359/.440 (122 wRC+) with 62 homers, an 11% walk rate and a 23.6% strikeout rate. Texas sent infielder Osleivis Basabe, catcher Heriberto Hernandez and outfielder Alexander Ovalles back to the Rays in that swap. Basabe made his MLB debut last year with the Rays but struggled in 31 games. Hernandez ranks 18th among Rays farmhands at Baseball America and isn’t in the team’s top 30 at MLB.com. Ovalles was selected by the Reds in the minor league phase of the 2023 Rule 5 Draft.
]]>It appears things are going well in the early stages of Scherzer’s rehab process. Manager Bruce Bochy told MLB Network this week the team envisions the star righty being back on an MLB mound by June (X link). The veteran skipper said that’s “a little bit earlier” than the team initially expected. Bochy indicated the club was shooting for a July return for offseason signee Tyler Mahle and a potential August timetable on Jacob deGrom, both of whom are working back from Tommy John procedures.
A few other health notes around the league:
Pinto and Alex Jackson look to be Tampa’s preferred catching combo heading into the 2024 season, but the Rays were known to be looking for more depth at the position. Re-signing a familiar face like Mejia would seem like a logical move in that department, even if a reunion with a catcher the Rays already seemingly moved on from last summer doesn’t represent much of an upgrade on a position that had been an issue for the team for years. Mejia has hit .239/.284/.394 over 1098 career plate appearances in the majors, as the 28-year-old has only rarely shown any of the promise that made him a top prospect during his time in the Cleveland and San Diego farm systems.
Here’s some more from the American League….
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]]>FEB. 16: Camp only just opened this week, but the Rangers are already facing one potentially worrisome injury situation. Third baseman Josh Jung experienced discomfort in his calf while fielding grounders today and is headed for an MRI, tweets Jeff Wilson of RangersToday.com. The club will provide further details once the imaging has been performed and evaluated by medical personnel.
Jung just turned 26 years old this week and was the fourth-place finisher in American League Rookie of the Year voting this past season. The former No. 8 overall draft pick belted 23 home runs and slashed .266/.315/.467 with sharp defense at the hot corner. Were it not for a fractured left thumb that kept him out of action for six weeks, he’d very likely have been a top-three finisher and could’ve potentially even given eventual winner Gunnar Henderson a run for his money.
At this point, there’s no indication the team believes the injury to be serious, though the pending MRI exam suggests there’s at least some degree of concern. The Rangers are relatively deep in infield talent, so in the event that Jung needs to miss any time, they’ll have options. Ezequiel Duran stepped up in Duran’s absence last season, and Josh H. Smith has ample experience at the corner as well. Veteran Matt Duffy is in camp as a non-roster player this spring and would give the Rangers a solid glove and contact-oriented bat at the position if he makes the team.
On the topic of non-roster Duffys, Matt isn’t the only one in camp. Veteran left-hander Danny Duffy also inked a minor league pact with Texas this season and could be an important depth piece for a club that will open the season with Max Scherzer, Jacob deGrom and Tyler Mahle on the injured list and all likely out into the summer. The 35-year-old southpaw hasn’t pitched in the big leagues since the 2021 season due to injuries but has been with the Dodgers (2022) and Rangers (2023) for the past two seasons while working toward a return. Texas used him as a reliever in the minors in ’23, but Kennedi Landry of MLB.com tweets that Duffy is building up as a starter in camp this time around.
It’s a familiar role for Duffy, the longtime Royals hurler who’s made 204 of his 234 career appearances out of the rotation. Aside from a brief dalliance in the bullpen in 2015-16, Duffy was a fixture on Kansas City’s starting staff from 2014-21, during which time he logged a 3.82 ERA in 1015 innings while punching out 21.3% of his opponents against an 8.2% walk rate. Duffy is now 35 years old and hasn’t pitched in the bigs since undergoing surgery to repair a torn flexor tendon in Dec. 2021. He’s pitched a total of 42 1/3 innings in the minors across the past two seasons. Expecting a full bounceback to his peak Royals form isn’t realistic, but if he’s healthy he should be a legitimate option to help the staff.
Getting any contributions from Duffy or fellow non-roster invitees José Ureña and Adrian Sampson would be a boon for the Rangers. Texas is set to enter the season with a rotation including Nathan Eovaldi, Jon Gray, Andrew Heaney, Dane Dunning and likely Cody Bradford. It’s a much weaker group than the World Series-winning outfit that finished out the 2023 season with Scherzer and current free agent Jordan Montgomery atop the staff. But general manager Chris Young has indicated he doesn’t anticipate any more additions to the big league roster at this point, strongly suggesting that the current group is the one the Rangers will carry into the season.
Evan Grant of the Dallas Morning News takes a look at the in-house depth options that stalled out last season. Former top prospects Jack Leiter, Cole Winn, Owen White and Zak Kent all struggled in various ways in ’23. Righty Kumar Rocker, the No. 3 pick back in 2022, underwent Tommy John surgery last May.
That group was expected to produce some pivotal long-term rotation pieces, but each prospect has seen his stock drop amid poor performance and/or injury. Grant notes that Leiter, who was shut down for nearly two months last year to work on his mechanics, spent the offseason working out with American League Cy Young runner-up Sonny Gray and veteran catcher Curt Casali. The trio all attended Vanderbilt (at different times, obviously). Gray worked with Leiter on simplifying his approach and his plan on the mound. Grant chatted not only with Leiter but also White and Kent about some of the changes they’ve made as they look to get back on track and contribute at a time when the Rangers will be leaning more heavily on internal pitching depth than at any point in 2023.
]]>“I don’t think there are any additions coming at this point,” Young candidly stated. While he maintained that the Rangers will “keep an open mind” on free agents (including Montgomery), he also noted that long-term uncertainty regarding the team’s television contract “is real” and has impacted spending this offseason — even on the heels of a World Series win.
The lack of marquee additions has frustrated some fans who’ve grown accustomed to lavish free agent expenditures in recent years. The Rangers famously spent more than a half billion dollars to sign Corey Seager, Marcus Semien and Jon Gray two offseasons ago and followed that with a pitching-heavy attack in free agency last winter, signing Jacob deGrom, Nathan Eovaldi and Andrew Heaney for a combined $234MM. Texas also picked up two high-profile arms at last year’s deadline when acquiring Montgomery and future Hall of Famer Max Scherzer. Montgomery, of course, is a free agent and remains unsigned. Scherzer will be sidelined into June or July following offseason back surgery.
Currently, Roster Resource projects the Rangers for a franchise-record $220MM payroll. That comes with $243MM worth of luxury tax obligations, setting the stage for Texas to be a luxury payor for the second straight season. Texas only paid $1.8MM in luxury fees last year, but as a second-time payor they’ll face steeper penalties for eclipsing this year’s $237MM threshold.
Right now, sitting about $6MM over the first barrier, the Rangers are only on the hook for a 30% overage fee. They’ll pay roughly that same $1.8MM penalty if no further deals are made, but between small-scale signings, late trade acquisitions and/or in-season pickups near the trade deadline, that figure will likely rise.
The ostensible lack of willingness to meet Montgomery’s asking price in free agency has proved the greatest point of consternation among fans. Where that asking price stands at present isn’t clear, but it’s fair to expect that Montgomery and his reps at the Boras Corporation are still eyeing a nine-figure contract and an annual salary ranging from $20-25MM.
The Rangers, as second-time luxury payors, would be on the hook for a good bit more than that. They’d owe a 30% tax on the next $14MM worth of AAV (average annual value) added to their payroll and another 42.5% on subsequent spending. Just setting a speculative AAV of $23MM on Montgomery, that would position the Rangers to pay an additional $8.025MM in taxes on top of Montgomery’s salary. Texas could try to backload the deal or defer salary, but that would do nothing to change the luxury tax hit. In other words, depending on where exactly Montgomery’s AAV lands, he’d cost the Rangers something in the vicinity of an extra $7-9MM on top of what he’s earning.
That theoretical Montgomery signing would also make it far likelier that they’ll be third-time payors in 2025. A Montgomery deal would likely push Texas to around $170MM worth of luxury obligations in ’25, and that’s before factoring in arbitration raises for Nathaniel Lowe (earning $7.5MM this season), Jonah Heim ($3.05MM in ’23), Dane Dunning ($3.325MM in ’23), Leody Taveras ($2.55MM in ’23), Brock Burke ($1.035MM in ’23) and Josh Sborz ($1.025MM in ’23).
A conservative estimate for the Rangers’ 2025 arb class would clock in around $30MM, meaning with a theoretical Montgomery deal they’d be over $200MM in tax considerations before making a single addition to the 2025 roster. Long-term deals for core players like Adolis Garcia, Josh Jung, Evan Carter or even top prospect Wyatt Langford would only push that luxury number further north.
It’s fair to debate just how much Rangers ownership should fret over the luxury tax, of course. The team is still entering its fourth season (with fans) in a new stadium that provided a revenue boost, and last year’s World Series win provided ample additional revenue as well. Texas needn’t worry about sacrificing any draft value unless the team is more than $40MM over the threshold — the point at which a club’s top pick is dropped by 10 places in the following year’s draft. It’s unlikely they’d hit that level even if they were to re-sign Montgomery, and they’d be a long ways from that level next offseason as well, even with Montgomery on the books.
Still, every ownership group has its limits, and it seems the Rangers’ group has reached — or is at the very least approaching — its own limits for the upcoming season. If that’s indeed the case, Texas will rely on a patchwork starting staff in the season’s first half with an eye toward potential returns for deGrom, Scherzer and right-hander Tyler Mahle (who inked a two-year, $22MM deal earlier this winter) following the All-Star break.
At the moment, the Rangers’ rotation will likely include Eovaldi, Gray, Heaney, Dunning and left-hander Cody Bradford. Right-hander Yerry Rodriguez and non-roster invitees like Jose Ureña and Adrian Sampson could factor into the group as well. There are a handful of notable arms who could be signed to low-cost one-year deals, and the Rangers could continue stockpiling veterans on non-roster pacts, just as they’ve done with Ureña and Sampson — the latter of whom only signed yesterday.
More broadly, it’ll be a big year for the development of former touted prospects like Jack Leiter, Owen White and Cole Winn. All three are former top-60 draft picks — Leiter was selected second overall — who’ve ranked among the game’s top-100 prospects. However, all three struggled through ugly seasons in the upper minors in 2023 and have seen their stock drop amid those struggles.
]]>It’s something of a homecoming for Sampson, now 32, as he was with the Rangers for three years. Claimed off waivers from the Mariners in November of 2016, he was with the org through the 2019 campaign. By that point, he had thrown 153 major league innings, allowing 5.71 earned runs per nine. He only struck out 17.3% of batters faced but limited walks to a 6% clip.
He went overseas prior to the 2020 season, signing with the Lotte Giants of the Korea Baseball Organization. He posted a 5.40 ERA in his one season in Korea before coming back to sign a minor league deal with the Cubs. He bounced on and off the Cubs’ roster throughout 2021 and 2022, posting solid results but with the numbers under the hood being a bit less impressive. He logged 139 2/3 innings over those two years with a 3.03 ERA, 17.6% strikeout rate and 6.1% walk rate. His .275 batting average on balls in play and 80% strand rate were both on the lucky side, which is why his 4.28 FIP and 4.44 SIERA were much higher than his ERA.
The Cubs retained him via arbitration for 2023, agreeing to a $1.9MM salary. He battled for a rotation job in camp but was ultimately optioned to the minors. While on optional assignment, he required debridement surgery on his right knee and wasn’t able to pitch much. He was outrighted off the roster in late July and flipped to the Rays a few days later. The Rays released him after about a week, indicating he was only really in the deal for financial reasons. The Cubs saved a bit of money while the Rays got some extra international bonus pool space and minor leaguer Manuel Rodríguez.
Due to his knee issue and getting released in August, he only tossed 28 minor league innings on the year with a 9.07 ERA. With the Rangers, he’ll be looking to bounce back for a club with some notable pitching depth concerns, particularly earlier in the year. Each of Jacob deGrom, Max Scherzer and Tyler Mahle are going to start the season on the injured list due to their respective surgeries. That will leave the rotation as Nathan Eovaldi, Jon Gray, Andrew Heaney, Dane Dunning and Cody Bradford to start the year, with some of those pitchers having notable injury histories of their own.
The bullpen was already the weakest part of the roster last year and then they lost Aroldis Chapman, Will Smith and Chris Stratton to free agency. They subsequently signed David Robertson and Kirby Yates but Yates is the youngest of the two even though he turns 37 next month.
All told, there could be a need for the defending champions to lean on their non-roster depth this year. Sampson has worked both as a starter and reliever, giving the club depth in both areas. He will jump into a group of experienced guys on minor league deals that includes José Ureña, Shane Greene, Diego Castillo, Austin Pruitt, Chasen Shreve, Danny Duffy and many others. If Sampson is added to the roster at any point, he still has a couple of options remaining.
]]>Grant has written previously that a deal between the two sides doesn’t seem likely, though some Rangers fans might’ve hoped that the recent resolution of the team’s television situation for the 2024 season might bring about a long-awaited agreement. A deal still feels like a reach, Grant suggests, rightly pointing out that given the team’s current luxury tax status, Montgomery would likely cost the Rangers more than $30MM this season. Texas will be a second-time luxury payor this season and already has $243MM of projected luxury obligations, per Roster Resource. They’ll pay a 30% tax on any dollars up to $257MM, plus a 42% tax on the next $20MM they spend.
That outlook doesn’t necessarily mean the Rangers can’t bring in Montgomery under any circumstances, but the team has operated with a good bit of financial restraint throughout the winter. Signing Montgomery would mean pushing their 2025 contractual commitments to around $160MM a full year in advance and would give the Rangers well over $100MM in guarantees on the books as far out as 2027. (Currently, they have $94.5MM committed to the 2027 roster.)
Furthermore, WEEI’s Rob Bradford reports that the Rangers haven’t been “actively involved” in Montgomery’s market for some time now due to the lefty’s price tag. Again, that doesn’t close the door entirely, but it’s another indicator that a Rangers/Montgomery reunion is hardly the fait accompli that some have suggested it to be.
If not Texas, there are a handful of other teams that have been connected to Montgomery — the Giants, Angels, Yankees, Red Sox and Phillies among them. Jon Heyman of the New York Post writes that the Angels remain in contact with Montgomery and agent Scott Boras (who also reps Blake Snell). The Angels currently project for a $173MM payroll — about $40MM shy of last year’s franchise-record mark — and are nearly $50MM from the first luxury tax threshold. Owner Arte Moreno has historically avoided long-term deals for pitchers, however, and Heyman suggests he’s yet to green-light his front office on the addition of a pitcher of this caliber.
On the Phillies, specifically, USA Today’s Bob Nightengale wrote recently that several executives around the league suspect the Phillies may be waiting to see if the price point on any of the remaining top-tier free agents drops to the point where they can make an opportunistic addition.
That’s largely speculative from what seems like a series of non-Phillies sources, but it’s worth noting that Philadelphia president of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski at least alluded to something along those lines in a radio appearance on Wednesday. Dombrowski noted that he’s happy with his rotation and with his lineup but also wouldn’t definitively rule out making another addition if the circumstances become favorable enough: “I can’t tell you that somebody doesn’t fall into your lap at some point where you say, ’Gee, that’s an opportunity we can’t turn down,'” the Phillies’ president stated on 94 WIP.
As with the Rangers, the Phillies are projected luxury tax payors. They’re $5MM from the second threshold and, as a third-time payor, would pay a 50% tax on their next roughly $5MM and then 62% on the next $20MM after that. Signing Montgomery at a $25MM AAV, for instance, would cost the Phils $14.9MM in taxes (nearly $40MM in total for this season alone, assuming an even distribution of the yearly salaries in that theoretical scenario). Perhaps if Montgomery’s price drops and the Phillies begin to lose confidence in their ability to extend Zack Wheeler, that might begin to sound more palatable, but signing him would be a rather costly endeavor at the moment, given the team’s tax outlook.
Montgomery, 31, has made at least 30 starts in each of the past three seasons. In that time, he’s pitched 524 1/3 innings of 3.48 ERA ball with a 22.5% strikeout rate, a 6.2% walk rate, a 44.5% ground-ball rate and just 1.00 HR/9. His 2023 campaign was arguably the finest of his career, featuring a personal-best 188 2/3 innings of 3.20 ERA ball, plus another 31 innings of 2.90 ERA ball in the postseason — a strong performance that helped push the Rangers to their first-ever World Series title.
]]>“As I take my leave from the pitcher’s mound, my passion for baseball remains unwavering. I eagerly anticipate exploring opportunities to continue contributing to the sport in a different capacity. To all who have been involved with my baseball odyssey, thank you for crafting an indelible and unforgettable ride. For all of those that will be part of my next chapter in baseball, I look forward to passing on what I have learned to the next generation of MLB players.”
Kluber, now 37, was a fourth-round pick of the Padres in 2007 but went to Cleveland in three-team deal at the 2010 deadline. The Cardinals received Jake Westbrook from Cleveland and prospect Nick Greenwood from the Padres. The Friars got Ryan Ludwick from the Cardinals while Cleveland got Kluber from the Padres. For Cleveland, that deal could hardly have worked out any better. They were having a poor season, which would eventually see them finish 69-93. Westbrook was an impending free agent and of little use to a club in that position, but they managed to exchange him for a huge piece of their future success.
As a prospect, Kluber didn’t have much hype. Baseball America didn’t consider him one of the Padres’ top 30 prospects going into 2010 and he had a 3.45 Double-A ERA at the time of the deal, a fine number but not anything outstanding. He made his major league debut in 2011 and didn’t do too much to impress there either, allowing four earned runs in his first 4 1/3 innings.
The legend really picked up steam in early 2012, as relayed by Jordan Bastian of MLB.com in this story from 2014. With Triple-A Columbus experiencing a rain delay, Kluber began tinkering with a two-seam fastball under the watch of pitching coach Ruben Niebla. “I’d never really thrown it much on a consistent basis,” Kluber said. “I’d throw my four-seam and, here and there, I’d mix in a two-seam. After I threw it over and over and over and over, and it kind of clicked. It was like, ’This feels a lot better.'” The two-seamer turned out to be the perfect pairing for his offspeed stuff and he took off from there.
He broke out in 2013 by tossing 147 1/3 innings for Cleveland in 24 starts and two relief appearances. He allowed 3.85 earned runs per nine innings that year, combining a 22.4% strikeout rate with a 5.4% walk rate and 45.5% ground ball rate. The next year, he took things to an utterly dominant level. He made 34 starts in 2014 with a 2.44 ERA, 28.3% strikeout rate, 5.4% walk rate and 48% ground ball rate. He narrowly edged out Félix Hernández for the American League Cy Young Award that year.
Realizing they had something special, the club locked him up with a five-year, $38.5MM extension in April of 2015, with that deal running through 2019 and containing two club options. At the time, it was the largest guarantee ever given to a pre-arbitration pitcher.
Kluber continued to dominate in the coming years. He made 32 starts in each of the next two seasons, with ERAs of 3.49 and 3.14 in those campaigns. The 2016 season saw Cleveland go all the World Series, with Kluber posting a 1.83 ERA in six starts that postseason, though they eventually fell to the Cubs in seven games. 2017 was another incredible season for Kluber, as he made 29 starts with a tiny ERA of 2.25. He got his strikeout rate up to an incredible high of 34.1% while walking only 4.6% of batters. He was awarded his second Cy Young at the end of that campaign.
He followed that up with another excellent showing in 2018, posting a 2.89 ERA over 33 starts, but that would eventually turn out to be the final year of his stretch of utter dominance. Injuries hampered him from there and he was never quite the same. But during that 2014 to 2018 stretch, he posted a 2.85 ERA in 1,091 1/3 innings. His 30.3 wins above replacement from FanGraphs in that time period placed him third among all pitchers in the league, trailing only Max Scherzer and Clayton Kershaw.
In his seventh start of the 2019 season, he was struck by a line drive and suffered a right arm fracture. He wasn’t able to return and finished that campaign with just 35 2/3 innings pitched. Cleveland picked up his $17.5MM club option but then traded him to the Rangers for Emmanuel Clase and Delino DeShields. The 2020 campaign was eventually shortened to just 60 games by the pandemic, with Kluber tossing just one inning for the Rangers. He suffered a teres major tear in his first outing and missed the remainder of the season.
The Rangers declined the $18MM option for Kluber’s services in 2021, and he would go on to serve as a solid journeyman for a few years. He signed with the Yankees and was eventually limited by a shoulder strain to 16 starts, but one of them was a no-hitter against the Rangers in May. He finished the year with a 3.83 ERA. In 2022, he was healthy enough to make 31 starts for the Rays, but with diminished stuff and a 4.34 ERA. With the Red Sox last year, he struggled immensely, getting moved to the bullpen in May. He was placed on the IL in June due to shoulder inflammation, having thrown 55 innings with a 7.04 ERA on the year. He suffered a setback during his rehab and never returned.
Though it wasn’t a fairytale ending, Kluber nonetheless told a remarkable story. As mentioned, he had a five-year stretch where he was one of the best pitchers on the planet, winning two Cy Youngs in the process. He made three All-Star teams, threw a no-hitter and racked up 1,725 career strikeouts. We was worth 34 wins above replacement in the eyes of Baseball Reference and 38.3 per the calculations of FanGraphs. Per BR, he earned just under $90MM in his playing days. We at MLBTR salute him on a tremendous run as a player and wish him the best in whatever comes next.
]]>11:33am: Garcia is guaranteed $14MM over the two-year term, reports Jon Heyman of the New York Post. The contract contains a series of escalators based on MVP voting that could further increase his salary in year two of the deal. The contract can max out at $20.25MM total over two years, Heyman adds.
10:58am: The Rangers have agreed to a two-year contract with star outfielder Adolis Garcia, reports Evan Grant of the Dallas Morning News. The deal is still pending completion of a physical, and there are still some details to be finalized, but the general framework is in place. Garcia is represented by Octagon.
The agreement comes on the same day that Garcia and the team were slated to head to an arbitration hearing. Garcia’s camp had filed for a $6.9MM salary for the upcoming season, while the team had countered at $5MM. That hearing will now no longer be necessary, and the two-year term on the deal eliminates the chance of a hearing next offseason as well. Garcia will still be under club control for one final year after this two-year pact draws to a close, so the two sides will again have to deal with a potential arb hearing in the 2025-26 offseason.
Garcia, 31 next month, has emerged as a late-blooming star and one of the driving factors behind the Rangers’ 2023 World Series title. He’s been a key presence in the lineup and in the outfield for Texas in each of the past three seasons, hitting .246/.305/.472 (110 wRC+) with plus defense and baserunning.
Garcia’s 2023 campaign, however, was far and away his best overall season to date. Garcia posted a career-best 10.3% walk rate and career-low 27.7% strikeout rate while hitting .245/.328/.508 with 39 home runs — second-most in the American League and tied for seventh-most in all of MLB. That performance earned Garcia an All-Star nod, and his premium defense resulted in his first career Gold Glove Award. His heroics continued into the postseason, where he hit .323/.382/.726 with a staggering eight home runs in just 15 games and 68 plate appearances. Garcia was on another level during the ALCS, when he clocked five home runs and slugged just shy of .900 en route to ALCS MVP honors.
An ill-timed oblique strain suffered on a swing during Game 3 of the World Series prompted the Rangers to remove Garcia from their World Series roster, but Texas soldiered on without their star right fielder and toppled the upstart Diamondbacks in a 4-1 series victory. By all accounts, Garcia has long since healed up from that injury and is a full-go for spring training.
Heading into 2024, Garcia will again reprise his role as the team’s primary right fielder. He’ll likely be joined by center fielder Leody Taveras, but the complexion of the Texas outfield is beginning to change in dramatic fashion. Top prospect Evan Carter made his big league debut late in the 2023 season and took the playoffs by storm. He’s just 21 years old, but after hitting .306/.413/.635 in 75 plate appearances down the stretch and .300/.417/.500 in another 72 postseason trips to the plate, he’s the heavy favorite to play left field regularly.
Meanwhile, 2023 No. 4 overall pick Wyatt Langford breezed through minor league pitching in 2023, batting .360/.480/.677 in 200 plate appearances across four levels. Langford reached Triple-A for the final five games of his season and is in the mix to break camp with the Rangers. He could join Carter and Garcia in a carousel of sorts between the outfield corners and the DH spot in manager Bruce Bochy’s lineup.
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