This setback likely removes any hope that Senga would return to the Mets rotation before the end of April, but an early May return is still on the table. Presuming he needs about six weeks to stretch out his arm, the righty could be back on the mound by the first week of May if he starts throwing again next weekend.
Needless to say, the Mets are hoping their ace misses as little time as possible. Senga made 29 starts last season, finishing second among qualified NL starters with a 2.98 ERA. Jose Quintana, who made just 13 starts in 2023, gets the Opening Day nod in his place, while Luis Severino, Sean Manaea, Adrian Houser, and Tylor Megill are likely to round out the rotation.
More pitching updates from the National League…
Kieboom, now 26, was the club’s first round draft pick in 2016. He was selected 28th overall that year and hit well enough in the minors that he was considered a top 100 prospect in the years to come. Baseball America ranked him #41 in the majors in 2019 and then #15 in 2020.
Unfortunately, his progress has been held back since then. He received 371 plate appearances over 2020 and 2021 but hit just .206/.315/.285 in that time. He then required Tommy John surgery early in 2022, wiping out that entire season for him.
He returned last year but health continued to play a role. He started the season on the injured list due to a shoulder impingement and was optioned to the minors when activated in May. He then experienced some lat soreness in the minors. He eventually played 27 major league games and 44 minor league contests for the year, hitting .207/.266/.368 in the bigs and .256/.362/.411 on the farm.
Kieboom has continued to hit in the minors, with a Triple-A slash of .281/.392/.457 over three different seasons. But he’s now coming off two injury-marred seasons and is out of options. The Nats seemingly didn’t have much intention of giving him a run of playing time this year, as they signed Nick Senzel to be their everyday third baseman. It seems none of the other 29 clubs had much appetite to give Kieboom a shot either, as they all passed on the chance to grab him off waivers.
He will now stick with the Nationals but without taking up a spot on the 40-man roster. Players with three years of service time can reject an outright assignment in favor of free agency but Kieboom is just under that threshold, currently at two years and 168 days. Since a year rolls over at 172 days, he is just four days shy of the three-year marker.
If he stays healthy and productive this year, he could earn his way back into the plans in Washington. Senzel is only under club control through 2025 and could find himself on the trade block this summer if he’s playing well, as the Nationals aren’t likely to be in contention this year.
]]>Major League Signings
2024 spend: $9.25MM
Total spend: $9.25MM
Option Decisions
Trades and Waiver Claims
Notable Minor League Signings
Notable Losses
The Nationals lost 91 games last season and entered the offseason with a fairly modest $110MM committed to the 2024 roster. With ample room to add starting pitching and players at various positions around the diamond, the stage looked to be set for some offseason dealings. General manager Mike Rizzo seemed to suggest as much early at last year’s Winter Meetings.
“We’ve got several holes to fill,” the veteran general manager said. “We’ve got our work cut out for us this year, and I think we’re going to take our aggressive approach when it suits us and wait for the market when it suits us. I think we’re going to be busy here. … I think we’re going to be aggressive again this year looking for a bat that can play the corner infield, be it third base or first base or DH or left field, or a combination of all three of those. And then we’ll resort back to getting more pitching.”
Rizzo went on to indicate that he’d be comfortable offering multiple years to free agents “in the right situation.” It was an encouraging slate of comments for Nats fans who have been tracking a series of ballyhooed prospects throughout the current rebuild and looked to the 2024 season as a year that could see the team begin to turn the corner.
Fast forward several months, however, and many of those claims ring hollow. The Nationals spent under $10MM in free agency, didn’t make a single trade and, despite having the No. 5 waiver priority in baseball, didn’t place a claim on a single player all offseason.
Washington did indeed add some corner bats, as Rizzo alluded to, but the impact of those acquisitions doesn’t look to be particularly high. For the second straight season, the Nats bought low on a non-tendered former top prospect to take over at third base. Unlike Jeimer Candelario, however, Nick Senzel isn’t simply coming off one down season. The former No. 2 overall draft pick has never had an average offensive season in parts of five MLB campaigns. He’s a career .239/.302/.369 hitter — about 23% worse than average, by measure of wRC+, which weights for the hitter-friendly home park in which Senzel has spent his entire career to date (Cincinnati’s Great American Ball Park).
Health has been a major roadblock for Senzel, who’s been on the injured list seven times in his big league career (to say nothing of multiple notable injuries from his prospect days). If the Nats can finally get Senzel healthy, he’d hardly be the first former top prospect to thrive in a change of scenery. He’s still just 28 years old, and the Nats will only owe him a $2MM salary this season. If he performs well, he’ll be a viable trade deadline chip but also could be a multi-year piece for Washington. Because he’s three weeks shy of five full years of MLB service, Senzel will be controllable through 2025 via arbitration.
The Nationals have already said that Senzel will be the team’s primary third baseman, which displaces their own in-house former top prospect, Carter Kieboom. He’s out of options and now ostensibly looking at a bench role. It shouldn’t come as a surprise if Kieboom himself is moved in a change-of-scenery deal later this spring — perhaps even following a DFA. It’s understandable that the Nats feel ready to move on from Kieboom after myriad injuries and parts of four unproductive big league seasons — but it’s at least a bit surprising that they’re doing so in favor of a player with a very similar career trajectory to date.
Across the diamond, it appears Joey Gallo will get another opportunity to try to recapture the Rangers form that’s increasingly becoming a distant memory. He’s still just 30 years old, but Gallo’s bat has cratered since being traded from the Rangers to the Yankees back in 2021. The slugger belted 110 home runs in just 1716 plate appearances from 2018-21, including a pair of 40-tater seasons, but since being traded, Gallo has a .166/.293/.396 batting line. He’s still walked in 14.5% of his plate appearances and hit for plenty of power, but his already problematic strikeout rate has ballooned to 40.5% in a significant sample of 970 plate appearances.
Gallo won’t cost the Nationals much, but at this point he’s two and a half seasons removed from being a productive hitter. If he goes on a huge first-half run, he could build up some trade value, but even if he’s hitting reasonably well, he’ll be viewed as a volatile rental whose ’21-’23 track record makes it tough for a team to surrender much of note in a trade.
The remainder of the lineup is largely set with in-house names. Shortstop CJ Abrams posted an ugly .300 OBP last season but saw his strikeout and walk rates improve in the season’s second half. He’s also one of baseball’s most impactful baserunners, swiping a hefty 47 bags in 51 tries, and quietly connected on 18 home runs last year. There’s legitimate breakout potential for him this season if he can continue to build on last year’s second-half gains in his K/BB profile.
On the other side of the bag, Luis Garcia Jr. will reprise his role as Washington’s everyday second baseman in what figures to be a make-or-break year of sorts. The 23-year-old was one of the sport’s top infield prospects before making his debut as a 20-year-old in 2020, and while he’s shown off the premium bat-to-ball skills that helped him garner praise (12.4% strikeout rate in ’23), he hasn’t done much else. Last year’s .266/.304/.385 slash (84 wRC+) is right in line with his career .265/.295/.395 output (85 wRC+). He’s been a sub-par defender thus far and hasn’t hit for power or provided baserunning value. He’s young enough to take another step forward, but if it doesn’t happen in what’ll be his fifth season with big league playing time, the Nats might have to look elsewhere for a long-term answer.
Then again, one need only look to center field to show the organization’s patience with homegrown talents. Victor Robles will be back for an eighth season despite not showing much since a promising start to his career. From 2017-19, the once-elite prospect — he ranked among the top 10 in all of MLB at Baseball America, MLB.com and Baseball Prospectus — hit .258/.327/.431 with premium defense. Dating back to 2020, however, he’s a .225/.302/.313 hitter (72 wRC+) in nearly 1100 plate appearances. Back problems limited him to 36 games last year, and his typically excellent defensive grades plummeted. The free agent market offered some affordable alternatives (Kevin Kiermaier, Harrison Bader, old friend Michael A. Taylor), but the Nats opted to stick with Robles, who’ll reach six years of service in ’24 and become a free agent next winter. If he’s healthy and performing even reasonably well this summer, he’ll be a trade candidate.
In right field, the Nats will again give Lane Thomas everyday at-bats and hope he can build on last year’s .268/.315/.468 showing. Thomas hit 28 homers, swiped 20 bags and played a fine right field. He’s only controlled through 2025 and was the subject of plenty of trade chatter last summer. That’ll likely be the case again come July.
Behind the plate, Keibert Ruiz will again serve as the primary catcher. Ruiz popped 18 homers, struck out in just 10.3% of his plate appearances and hit .260/.308/.409 (93 wRC+). He’s already signed long-term under an eight-year extension.
Joey Meneses is likely to open the season as the Nats’ primary designated hitter, but some of the shine has come off the late-blooming slugger after an out-of-the-blue breakout in 2022. Menseses hit .324/.367/.543 with 13 homers in just 240 plate appearances as a rookie in ’22. He saw nearly triple the at-bats in ’23 but still hit just 13 homers with an overall .275/.321/.401 output. For a bat-only player, that won’t cut it moving forward.
Left field is the only real spot that’s up for grabs heading into the season. The Nats dished out minor league deals to Jesse Winker and Eddie Rosario in hopes one can step up to fill that spot. Rosario is the more capable defender and is coming off a better 2023 showing. Winker, at his peak, was the more productive of the two — at least against right-handed pitching. Neither will cost much if they make the roster. It’s unlikely either will return much in a potential deadline swap, even if they’re performing well, but the pair of veterans gives the Nats a short-term bridge to prospects like James Wood, Dylan Crews and Robert Hassell III.
On the pitching side of the roster, the Nats will effectively roll out the same staff that produced some of the worst results in the game last year. Zach Davies, another minor league signee, is the only addition of note. The Nats have plenty of payroll space but will eschew even modestly priced upgrades in the vein of Michael Lorenzen and Mike Clevinger, both of whom remain unsigned.
That will pave the way for a group of Patrick Corbin, Josiah Gray, MacKenzie Gore, Jake Irvin and Trevor Williams to lead the team in starts again, pending any contributions from Davies and top prospect Cade Cavalli, who’ll eventually return from 2023 Tommy John surgery — likely on a limited workload. Washington is lacking in top-end pitching prospects beyond Cavalli, though names like DJ Herz, Jackson Rutledge and Mitchell Parker could factor into the rotation at some point.
The hope will be that Gray, Gore and Cavalli can all take meaningful steps forward, but there’s reason to express skepticism despite the former top prospect pedigree of each. Gray has never walked fewer than 10.5% of his opponents in his two and a half MLB seasons, and last year’s 20.5% strikeout rate was a career-low. He finally managed to somewhat curb his highest-in-MLB home run rate (2.30 HR/9 in ’22, 1.25 in ’23), but he did so at the expense of strikeouts and more free passes. Gore was immensely homer-prone (1.78 HR/9) but missed bats at a strong level and did reach a new career-high innings total (136 1/3). Cavalli was viewed by some scouts as a future reliever before he had Tommy John surgery, and he’ll now be under a tightly managed workload.
Despite Rizzo’s earlier proclamations about needing to add pitching help and being willing to make multi-year offers in the right setting, he changed his tune dramatically just a couple months later: “I just couldn’t find that starting pitcher that was going to impact us at this time, for not only the right amount of years but the right salary at this time,” Rizzo said in mid-February.
It’s a puzzling statement when each of Alex Wood, Jakob Junis, Frankie Montas, Jack Flaherty and Martin Perez inked one-year contracts (for under $10MM, in the case of Wood, Junis and Perez). Each of Kenta Maeda ($24MM), Nick Martinez ($26MM), Michael Wacha ($32MM) and Sean Manaea ($28MM) inked two-year deals with prices that would’ve kept the Nationals’ payroll in the $140MM range, if not a bit lower. The Nats peaked at a $197MM payroll in 2019 and were at $135MM or more in each season from 2014-22.
It’s a similar story in the bullpen, where myriad arms signed short-term deals that the Nationals could accommodate. The Nats’ only pickup was righty Dylan Floro, who has a nice track record but struggled in ’23 while battling a wildly unfortunate .401 average on balls in play despite better-than-average hard contact numbers. Floro is a perfectly sensible pickup, possibly even a bargain, but the Nats have such an undefined bullpen that it’s surprising he was the only one.
Between Floro and the trio of Kyle Finnegan, Hunter Harvey and Tanner Rainey — all controlled only through 2025 — Washington will have plenty of relievers to peddle this summer. Veterans Matt Barnes and Richard Bleier could work their way into that group after signing minor league deals. Another one-year pickup could’ve given them another, though, and while the return on such investments is rarely of note, the Nats clearly had the payroll capacity to at least take a shot.
Perhaps the general dearth of activity stems from uncertainty regarding the future of the team. The Lerner family was reportedly exploring a sale of the club for the past couple seasons before announcing in late February that those efforts were being halted. It’s plenty feasible that current ownership handcuffed Rizzo and his staff in fairly significant fashion this winter, not wanting to take on long-term commitments while exploring a sale of the team. Rizzo, the rest of the front office, and ownership would never publicly state as much, but it’s fair to wonder given the minimal payroll outlay and the number of areas on the roster that remain ripe for an upgrade.
Regardless of the reasoning, the results are what they are. The 2024 season looks like another bleak year for Nats fans, one plagued by lackluster pitching performances and subpar offensive production. But the ongoing rebuild could begin to bear fruit later this season, setting the stage for a more interesting ’25 campaign. Wood and Crews will likely be in the majors by then. Corbin will be off the books. Cavalli could be both healthy and largely free of an innings cap. And the Nats only have $43MM on that year’s payroll, perhaps setting the stage for a more aggressive run through free agency following the 2024 campaign. That’s shaping up to be a deep free agent class, headlined by old friend Juan Soto in addition to Pete Alonso, Corbin Burnes, Max Fried and Alex Bregman — among many others. This offseason was as quiet as they come, but next winter could be more interesting.
]]>Even with Alcantara potentially as much as a month ahead of schedule, it’s still all but guaranteed that he won’t pitch in the majors during the 2024 season. While he first went on the shelf on September 6 with a flexor strain, he wasn’t diagnosed with a UCL sprain until the following week and was only shut down for the season on September 23 before undergoing surgery shortly thereafter. Even the most favorable estimates for a return to the mound following Tommy John surgery require at least a year of rehab, and it seems unlikely that the Marlins would have any interest in rushing Alcantara back to the mound. While the right-hander had a down season in 2023 with a rather pedestrian 4.14 ERA in 28 starts, his incredible 2022 campaign saw him post a sterling 2.28 ERA with a 2.99 FIP while leading the majors with 228 1/3 innings pitched.
While Alcantara being ahead of schedule won’t have an impact on the Marlins in 2024, it’s a positive sign for his odds of being ready to pitch come Opening Day 2025. In the meantime, the club figures to rely on the likes of Eury Perez, Jesus Luzardo, Braxton Garrett, Trevor Rogers and Edward Cabrera in 2024. The Marlins reportedly fielded trade offers on some of their young rotation arms this winter, and while a deal didn’t ultimately come together, it remains at least possible that the club will ship one or more pitchers out from its rotation mix before Alcantara returns to the mound in 2025, whether that be ahead of this summer’s trade deadline or at some point next offseason.
More from around the NL East…
9:10am: Rosario’s contract is a minor league deal, tweets Andrew Golden of the Washington Post.
8:54am: The Nationals and free agent outfielder Eddie Rosario are in agreement on a split contract that can pay the veteran up to $4MM after incentives, reports Daniel Alvarez Montes of El Extra Base. The deal is still pending a physical. Rosario is represented by Rimas Sports.
Rosario, 32, is a veteran of nine big league seasons who’ll be joining his fourth MLB club after spending six seasons in Minnesota, half a year in Cleveland and two and a half seasons with Atlanta. He appeared in 142 games with the Braves last season, tallying 516 plate appearances and batting .255/.305/.450 with 21 home runs, 24 doubles, three triples, three steals, a 6.6% walk rate and a 23.6% strikeout rate.
From 2017-20 with the Twins, Rosario was a key presence in the middle of the lineup, popping a total of 96 home runs in 2002 plate appearances and hitting .281/.317/.493 — about 12% better than league average, by measure of wRC+. His bat has tailed off since that time, however. Rosario’s blistering run with the Braves following his acquisition at the 2021 trade deadline helped push Atlanta to the postseason, and his Herculean performance in that year’s NLCS won him MVP honors during that series. But on the whole, Rosario’s bat has been below average since departing Minnesota.
Over the past three seasons, Rosario has turned in a tepid .247/.295/.417 batting line (91 wRC+). He’s still shown some power, connecting on 40 homers and logging a .171 ISO (slugging minus batting average) in that time, but Rosario has become increasingly strikeout prone along the way.
During that peak four-year run with Minnesota, Rosario fanned in just 16.5% of his plate appearances. That mark has climbed to 24.2% over the past two seasons. Rosario has never walked much, but in the past, his plus bat-to-ball skills have helped to offset his anemic walk rates and justify his swing-at-everything approach. That’s no longer the case. In 2022-23, Rosario swung more often than all but 13 big league hitters (min. 500 plate appearances), but his contact rate ranked 265th of 318 in that same subset. The issue is magnified on pitches off the plate. Rosario has chased outside the strike zone more frequently than all but seven hitters in that span but ranks 173rd in contact rate on pitches off the plate.
Those traits underscore the free-swinging Rosario’s problematic approach at the plate, but the lefty-swinging veteran can still punish mistakes in the strike zone, particularly against right-handed pitching. His career batting average and OBP lack any telling platoon splits, but the vast majority of Rosario’s power comes when facing righties.
Defensively, Rosario has experience in all three outfield spots but is best deployed as a left fielder. His sprint speed (28 ft/sec, per Statcast) still ranks comfortably above league average, but he’s never displayed the range for center field and his once-elite arm has deteriorated over the past few seasons. As recently as 2020, Rosario averaged a huge 91.6 mph on his throws from the outfield, placing him in the 95th percentile of MLB outfielders. He was down to 85.1 mph in 2023, effectively placing him right at league average.
With the Nationals, Rosario can give manager Davey Martinez another veteran to compete for time in left field, joining fellow lefty hitter Jesse Winker in that regard. Center field figures to be manned by Victor Robles, with Lane Thomas slated for everyday reps in right field. Rosario and/or Winker could also contribute at designated hitter, but the Nats signed Joey Gallo to a big league deal last month and still have Joey Meneses as well.
That gives the Nats plenty of options at first base, designated hitter and left field. Assuming the physical goes well, Rosario will be among the favorites for playing time in left field, perhaps in a platoon setting with righty-hitting Stone Garrett. Rosario will also give Washington some depth to allow touted prospects and potential cornerstones Dylan Crews and James Wood to continue developing in the upper minors rather than rushing them to the big leagues. It’s a low-cost, minimal-risk deal for a team that has looked light on experienced outfield depth and on viable power threats in the middle of the order.
]]>However, ABH Inc. still reported an overall operating loss of $46MM for 2023. As per the team statement, baseball-related operating costs “increased primarily due to higher player salaries, including offseason trade activity in the fourth quarter, as well as increases under MLB’s revenue sharing plan.” The operating profit for 2023 stood at $38MM, but dropped into the red due to $13MM drops for stock-based compensation and $71MM in depreciation and amortization. (Tucker notes that “large deductions for depreciation and amortization are believed to be common for MLB teams.”)
The revenue increase has gone hand-in-hand with a big increase in the Braves’ payroll, as Atlanta is set to far exceed its club-record $205MM payroll from 2023. The Braves are currently projected (as per RosterResource) for a payroll close to $228MM and a luxury tax number of $270MM. After paying into the tax for the first time last season, the Braves have now gone well beyond the initial CBT threshold, as their projected $270.3MM tax number is now approaching the third penalization tier of $277MM. The front office’s aggressive strategy of locking up star players to extensions has both increased spending but also built a powerhouse team that is expected to again contend for a World Series title.
Some more items from around the NL East…
A couple of weeks ago, it was reported that Thompson would be shut down due to an elbow injury. At that time, manager Dave Martinez confessed that the team was “a little concerned,” so they likely had some inkling that today’s news was possible.
It’s undoubtedly a frustrating setback for both Thompson and the team. The now-26-year-old came over to the Nationals from the Padres in the 2021 Daniel Hudson trade and now has 106 games of MLB experience under his belt between those two clubs. He has logged 103 1/3 innings, allowing 4.53 earned runs per nine. His 17.7% strikeout rate and 10% walk rate are both subpar, but his 51.1% ground ball rate is quite strong.
The Nats are rebuilding and will likely have plenty of innings available for young pitchers this year, allowing them to continue to develop while showcasing their abilities to the league. Unfortunately, Thompson won’t be able to take advantage of that opportunity. Since Tommy John rehab generally takes over a year, he’ll miss the entire 2024 season and perhaps the early portions of 2025 as well.
The club will have to pivot to other options with Thompson no longer in the mix for this year’s bullpen innings. They have given minor league deals to various veterans such as Derek Law, Matt Barnes, Richard Bleier, Luis Perdomo and Jacob Barnes.
The Nats will likely transfer Thompson to the 60-day injured list once they need his roster spot. If that comes to pass, he’ll spend the whole year there, receiving major league pay and service time. He would cross three years of service in that scenario and qualify for arbitration next winter, though missing the entire year will make him unlikely to receive a substantial raise. The Nats could also designate him for assignment, but injured players can’t be put on outright waivers, meaning he’d have to be put on release waivers. They could then try to re-sign him to a minor league deal but Thompson would be free to explore opportunities with other clubs.
]]>Feb. 26: Veteran right-hander Matt Barnes has “made good progress” towards a deal with the Nationals, reports Chris Cotillo of MassLive, though Cotillo cautions that the deal is not complete. Earlier today, Cotillo relayed that Barnes’ market was heating up with the Nats being one of the teams in the mix. The righty is a client of ISE Baseball. The Nationals have a full 40-man roster and would need to open a spot for Barnes — if the parties are discussing a guaranteed deal. That could easily be achieved by moving Stephen Strasburg to the 60-day injured list.
Barnes, 34 in June, is coming off a rough couple of years but looked like one of the most dominant relievers in the league prior to that. From 2016 to 2019, he had a stretch with the Red Sox where he looked like a solid but not elite reliever. Over those four seasons, he made 264 appearances for Boston with a 3.84 earned run average. His 32% strikeout rate was quite impressive and he kept 48.4% of balls in play on the ground but his 11.4% walk rate was on the high side.
In the shortened 2020 season, he had a bit of a blip, with his ERA jumping to 4.30. But in 2021, he turned things around in spectacular fashion. Through July 10, he had tossed 37 innings over the same number of appearances, allowing 2.68 runs per nine. He struck out a huge 44.6% of batters faced while giving out walks at just a 7.2% clip. He was just a few months from free agency but the Sox decided to lock him up, agreeing to a two-year extension with a guarantee of $18.75MM and a club option for 2024.
Unfortunately, things took a downward turn shortly after that deal was signed. His next seven appearances were scoreless but he hit a rough patch in early August. From the signing of extension to the end of the year, his ERA was 6.11. He then posted a 4.31 ERA in 2022, with subpar strikeout and walk rates of 19.3% and 11.9%, respectively. He was dealt to the Marlins prior to last year and put up a 5.48 ERA in 24 appearances. He went on the injured list in early June due to a left hip impingement and never returned, undergoing surgery in July. The Fish turned down his option at the end of the year and sent him to the open market.
“Looking back on it, I’m realizing now that the hip was such a limiting factor in my ability to get into my lower half, subconsciously knowing that it was there,” Barnes told Alex Speier of the Boston Globe last month. “The nature of the injury with the hip, it didn’t allow me to get over my front side and truly rotate and create power.” The right-hander averaged 95-98 miles per hour on his fastball through 2022 but then was down to 93.4 last year, perhaps backing up his assessment of his poor campaign in 2023.
For the Nats, taking a flier on Barnes and hoping for a post-surgery bounceback would be a sensible gambit. The club has been deep in a rebuild for many years and isn’t expected to return to contention here in 2024. The projected standings at FanGraphs and the PECOTA standings at Baseball Prospectus both peg them to be the worst club in the National League East and one of the worst in the majors overall.
They currently project to have a bullpen featuring Kyle Finnegan, Hunter Harvey and Tanner Rainey, all of whom are set for free agency after 2025. Coming into the winter, they had almost no one else with a meaningful track record of big league success, leaving plenty of openings for other hurlers. They signed Dylan Floro to a one-year deal to stabilize the ’pen somewhat and perhaps turn himself into a trade chip. Signing Barnes would come with the same logic.
Given the long-term outlook of the club and the fungible nature of relievers, it wouldn’t be a surprise to see the Finnegan/Harvey/Rainey trio on the trading block this summer if they are throwing well. Even if someone like Floro or Barnes didn’t pitch well enough to net a huge deadline return, they might still need to step up and play a role to help the club get through end of the season. The Nats have also given non-roster deals to veterans like Derek Law, Richard Bleier, Jacob Barnes and Luis Perdomo.
]]>This week, host Darragh McDonald is joined by Steve Adams of MLB Trade Rumors to discuss…
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]]>Law, 33, posted solid results for the Reds last year, logging 55 innings while allowing 3.60 earned runs per nine. However, he may have been lucky to do so, as his 18.8% strikeout rate, 10.8% walk rate and 39.5% ground ball rate were all below league average. The baseball gods could have been smiling on him a bit, as his .275 batting average on balls in play and 77.9% strand rate were both on the fortunate side.
His 4.62 FIP and 4.82 SIERA suggested he may not have been able to continue keeping runs off the board at the rate that he did last year. The Reds may have agreed, as they decided to non-tender Law instead of keeping him around via arbitration. MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz projected a modest $1.4MM salary but the Reds cut him loose instead.
The Nats are rebuilding and should have innings available for relievers at some point this year. Kyle Finnegan, Hunter Harvey, Tanner Rainey and Dylan Floro are the only relievers on the roster with more than three years in the big leagues. If any of them are throwing well this summer, they could find themselves on the the trade block, since the Nats aren’t expected to be in contention. Floro is on a one-year deal while each of Finnegan, Harvey and Rainey are set to become free agents after 2025.
Law is a veteran journeyman who debuted back in 2016, having suited up for the Giants, Blue Jays, Twins and Tigers before joining the Reds. He has thrown 256 innings in the majors with a 4.08 ERA. He would be a logical fit on a club that’s lacking in experience, though he’ll have competition from other non-roster invitees like Richard Bleier, Luis Perdomo, Jacob Barnes and others. If Law doesn’t end up on the roster, the opt-outs give up some ability to pursue other opportunities, though the exact dates of those opt-outs haven’t been reported.
]]>It was almost two years ago, in April of 2022, that Lerner first revealed that the club would be exploring the possibility of a sale. “Nothing has really changed,” Lerner said today. “We’ve just decided that it’s not the time or the place for it. We’re very happy owning the team and bringing us back a ring one day.”
In the interim, it seemed like little progress was made towards the club changing hands. In late 2022, it was reported that their dispute with the Orioles over the Mid-Atlantic Sports Network was something of an obstacle. When the Montreal Expos were moved to Washington and into the territory of the O’s, the former club’s TV rights were given to the latter club. The two clubs jointly own MASN but the O’s having a larger share.
TV revenue is a significant factor in the finances for a baseball club, as has been quite clear this winter. The ongoing bankruptcy of Diamond Sports Group has put a dent in the spending capacity of various clubs throughout this offseason. The Nats are at a disadvantage in that department as they don’t have control over their own rights and have been battling the O’s over MASN revenue for years.
As of about a year ago, the reporting still indicated that little progress was being made in terms of selling the Nats. The most likely buyer, Ted Leonsis, owns NBC Sports Washington and likely wanted to put the club on that channel. But the aforementioned complications would make that difficult and seemed to stall the possibility of anything getting done.
It recently seemed possible there was some light at the end of the tunnel with the developments surrounding the Orioles. The Angelos family, who have owned the O’s since 1993, recently agreed to sell the club to a group led by David Rubenstein. That group is going to also acquire the Orioles’ share of MASN if the deal is ultimately approved by Major League Baseball. Some observers speculated that Rubenstein might sell MASN to Leonsis. It was also reported that the league could make the O’s give up the Nationals’ TV rights as part of approving the sale, though it’s unclear if they had any intent to do so. That arguably opened a path for a sale of the Nats to become unclogged but it seems that won’t be coming to fruition, with the Lerner family deciding to hold on.
Now that the Lerners are sticking around, questions will be raised about the club’s path forward. Despite winning the World Series in 2019, the club’s fortunes turned after that and they have been in a deep rebuild for a while now. They traded Max Scherzer and Trea Turner at the 2021 deadline and then Juan Soto one year after that. That’s naturally led to modest activity in recent offseasons but they’ve been fairly quiet even by the standards of a rebuilding club.
Last year, they mostly gave out one-year pacts to bounceback candidates like Jeimer Candelario and Dominic Smith, though they did give a two-year pact to Trevor Williams. This winter, the activity has been even more muted, with their $5MM deal for Joey Gallo the biggest expenditure of the winter. General manager Mike Rizzo recently stated that the club was unlikely to make any more moves of significance.
It had been assumed by some observers that the lack of activity was a reflection of the fact that the club was for sale. The Lerner family could have used the fairly clean payroll outlook as an attractive feature to market to prospective buyers, offering interested parties a chance to put their own stamp on the future of the franchise. Now that the sale is not happening, the spotlight will turn back on the Lerner family and how they plan to get the Nats out of their recent slide. They have finished below .500 in the past four seasons and most projection systems calculate them as likely to be one of the worst clubs in the league in 2024.
]]>Garrett, 26, has quietly broken out as a quality mid-rotation arm for the Marlins over the past two seasons. In 48 appearances (47 starts) since the start of the 2022 season, Garrett has posted an impressive 3.63 ERA with a nearly-matching 3.64 FIP across 247 2/3 innings of work. During that time, the lefty has struck out a respectable 23.8% of batters faced while walking just 5.1%. The youngster’s strong peripheral numbers are rounded out by his ability to generate grounders, which he has done at an above-average 48.7% clip over the past two years. With Sandy Alcantara set to miss the entire 2024 campaign while rehabbing Tommy John surgery, Garrett figures to slot in toward the front of the Miami rotation this season alongside the likes of Jesus Luzardo and Eury Perez.
With Garrett’s health uncertain entering camp, it’s fair to wonder what impact his status may have on the club’s trade talks regarding members of their rotation. The Marlins have long been known to be listening on their controllable starting pitching in hopes of addressing other areas of their roster, with Luzardo receiving attention from the likes of the Orioles and Dodgers while the Pirates have also reportedly shown interesting in the club’s available rotation arms. While it’s unclear what impact, if any, Garrett’s current shoulder issue would have on his availability in trade, it’s possible the Marlins may be more hesitant to shop any of their starting options until they have more certainty on Garrett’s status. After all, a hypothetical trade of Luzardo would leave the Marlins with only Perez, Edward Cabrera, and Trevor Rogers as surefire starting options entering the 2024 season if Garrett were to require time on the injured list.
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Now entering his 10th Major League season, Davies is looking to rebound after a difficult 2023 campaign. The righty posted a 7.00 ERA over 82 1/3 innings in Arizona’s rotation, with subpar secondary metrics almost across the board. Injuries also limited Davies’ playing time, as separate IL stints for an oblique strain and back inflammation cost him roughly 10 weeks of action. The Diamondbacks designated Davies for assignment and then released him just before the end of the regular season, giving him an early jump on free agency.
Davies posted a 3.79 ERA over 683 2/3 innings and 123 starts with the Brewers and Padres from 2015-20, developing a reputation as a solid back-of-the-rotation type. Never a big strikeout pitcher or a hard thrower, Davies nevertheless found success with a formula of limited walks and hard contact, plus an outstanding changeup that was quietly one of the best pitches in baseball.
Unfortunately for Davies, the formula stopped working during a rough 2021 season with the Cubs, though he rebounded to some extent in 2022 with a 4.09 ERA over 134 1/3 innings for the D’Backs. That performance earned him another one-year contract from Arizona last offseason, and all told, Davies earned $7.9MM over his two seasons as a Diamondback, counting base salaries, buyouts, and a few incentive clauses.
With that 2021-22 turnaround in mind, it stands to reason that the 31-year-old Davies might be able to again bounce back, especially if he stays healthy. Returning to his 2022 numbers would be a nice result for both Davies and the Nationals, as it would put the right-hander in line for another guaranteed contract next offseason, and Washington would benefit from having a solid veteran presence in the rotation.
The rebuilding Nationals have Josiah Gray and MacKenzie Gore as the younger centerpieces of their rotation, with sophomore Jake Irvin and veterans Patrick Corbin and Trevor Williams filling out the rest of the starting five. Former top prospect Cade Cavalli is expected to return around midseason from Tommy John surgery, and former first-rounder Jackson Rutledge and rookie DJ Herz are also expected to contribute some innings. Davies is the most clear-cut starting candidate of Washington’s group of minor league signings, which include such names as Robert Gsellman, Adonis Medina, and Spenser Watkins.
There isn’t much certainty within that group, so between inconsistency and injuries, Davies would seemingly have a pretty good shot at making the Opening Day roster. Since D.C. isn’t likely to be in contention, any of Davies, Williams, or (if the Nats eat most of his remaining salary) Corbin stand out as possible trade candidates at the deadline, if the Nationals want to clear some rotation space for Cavalli and the other more inexperienced pitchers down the stretch.
]]>Barnes has pitched in the majors every year since 2016, suiting up for eight different teams along the way. The 33-year-old had a strong start to his career with the Brewers from 2016-18, when he pitched to a 3.54 ERA and matching 3.55 FIP over the life of 147 1/3 frames, but he’s struggled in the five years since and slipped into journeyman status. Dating back to the 2019 season, Barnes has pitched 115 1/3 innings for the Brewers, Royals, Angels, Mets, Blue Jays, Yankees, Tigers and Cardinals — logging a combined 6.32 ERA with a 20.8% strikeout rate and 9.4% walk rate.
Despite those big league struggles, Barnes has produced at a steadily excellent clip in the upper minors. He’s pitched 134 innings over parts of six Triple-A seasons and turned in a stellar 2.15 earned run average. He’s fanned 24.1% of his opponents at that level against a 9% walk rate and has yielded only six total home runs — an average of just 0.4 round-trippers per nine innings pitched. The right-hander has above-average grounder rates and still averages better than 95 mph on his four-seamer. He’s been a two-pitch reliever throughout his career, typically leaning on a fairly standard four-seamer/slider profile.
The Nationals have largely sat out of the free agent market this offseason, with righty Dylan Floro standing as their only bullpen addition. The relief mix behind closer Kyle Finnegan and setup man Hunter Harvey is generally wide open, particularly with this week’s revelation of an injury to right-hander Mason Thompson. Floro and a returning Tanner Rainey (who underwent Tommy John surgery in 2022) will give manager Davey Martinez another pair of experienced arms on which to rely, but there’s plenty of opportunity in the Washington ’pen, should Barnes impress either in camp or in Triple-A Rochester to begin the season.
]]>Rizzo’s comments seemingly close the door on any potential late additions of note to a Nationals club that has been poking around the starting pitching market. “I just couldn’t find that starting pitcher that was going to impact us at this time, for not only the right amount of years but the right salary at this time,” Rizzo said Wednesday (via MASNsports.com’s Mark Zuckerman).
The Nationals have only signed three players to big league deals this offseason — none for more than Joey Gallo’s $5MM (as can be seen in MLBTR’s Contract Tracker). Beyond Gallo, the Nats signed reliever Dylan Floro and infielder/outfielder Nick Senzel to one-year deals worth $2.3MM and $2MM, respectively. They’ve also added outfielder Jesse Winker, lefty Richard Bleier and first baseman/outfielder Juan Yepez on minor league pacts this winter.
As it stands, the Nationals will deploy a rotation including Patrick Corbin, Josiah Gray, MacKenzie Gore, Jake Irvin and Trevor Williams. That group combined to start all but 19 of Washington’s games in 2023 — Chad Kuhl, Joan Adon and Jackson Rutledge started the others — a season in which the Nationals ranked 25th in the Majors with a 5.02 ERA and 29th in each of FIP (5.30), SIERA (4.95) and K-BB% (9.7%).
The Nats are surely hoping for better performances from young starters like Gore and Gray, both of whom were lauded as top prospects prior to breaking into the big leagues. Both hurlers posted respectable ERAs with middling grades from fielding-independent metrics, in no small part due to sub-par walk rates and (in Gore’s case especially) struggles with the long ball. Gore is the only Nationals starter who posted an above-average strikeout rate in 2023 (26%). Corbin and Williams are the only two who had better-than-average walk rates (7.2% and 8%, respectively).
Washington also has several more arms on the rise, with the aforementioned Rutledge, lefty DJ Herz and right-hander Cade Cavalli among them. Cavalli would likely have been in the Nats’ rotation in 2023 were it not for a spring elbow injury that led to Tommy John surgery.
Rizzo didn’t provide much of an update on Cavalli beyond the fact that his rehab is progressing nicely. An early-summer return seems like a best-case scenario for the hard-throwing 25-year-old, and Zuckerman indeed notes that he’s shooting to be MLB-ready sometime in June.
Rutledge tossed 20 innings in last year’s debut after delivering solid run-prevention numbers between Double-A and Triple-A — albeit with sub-par command. Herz, acquired from the Cubs in exchange for Jeimer Candelario, posted a 3.43 ERA in 22 Double-A starts last year, fanning an impressive 32.4% of his opponents. He too struggled with command issues, however, walking opponents at a grim 13.9% clip.
On the bullpen front, the Nats could be down at least one candidate early in the season. Skipper Davey Martinez said Wednesday that righty Mason Thompson will be shut down for the next two weeks before being reevaluated for an elbow injury (X link via Golden). Martinez conceded that the team is “a little concerned” about the issue but declined to go into further details.
Thompson, 26 next week, has spent the majority of the past three seasons with the Nationals and pitched 100 1/3 innings of 4.57 ERA ball with a 17.8% strikeout rate, 10% walk rate and 50.6% ground-ball rate.
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