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By Tim Dierkes | at
Email a copy of 'Draft Pick Compensation Can't Be Assumed' to a friend
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bjsguess
Always a good reminder Tim. Thanks for posting.
No guarantee to get 2 top picks – the following scenarios can prevent that from happening:
— Elias ranking improperly rates a players talent level
— Player accepts arbitration
— Team doesn’t offer arbitration
— Signing team is a bottom 15 team (only get a supplemental + 2nd round pick)
— Signing team has acquired one more more players who ranked higher
— Drafted player does not sign with the club
That’s a lot of “if’s”.
Then you have the issue with how effective teams are at drafting. For some teams, those picks are pretty worthless because they have a poor record of developing internal talent. For other teams those picks are very valuable due to their scouting and development departments.
Finally, you have to consider when those picks will be able to contribute at the ML level. For many teams, talent today is significantly more valuable than talent tomorrow. So a team like the Pirates would be smart to horde high draft picks and plan for the future. Conversely, a team like the Rays need to maximize the talent on their roster today in order to push for a successful season in ’10.
Jim M
On the scouting thing, teams can’t really be that objective about things. I’m sure most teams think they are good at drafting and have just had a run of bad luck. So they’ll always value the picks, even if they have a long track record of getting little for them. So while it’s easy for us to say “Oh, a draft pick is worth more to the Marlins than the Astros” I highly doubt the Astros are saying “Sheesh, we suck, we should just stick with the talent we have on the field.” Even though their club looks like it was built on that principle…
gigantes2425
well they don’t have to worry about that. they had to really over pay for him to say that though.
bomberj11
Wow, did the Astros really get picks 19 and 33? Definitely worth more than bringing back Valverde, imo.
Ferrariman
they also have another top 15 pick.
bomberj11
Well, let’s just hope they take advantage of these picks.
vanDreamsdyk
Arguing that his Type A status is not guaranteed and may fall to Type B because of a slip in production does not support the argument that they did the right thing in locking him up. If his numbers decline that would actually support the opposite that maybe they should have or could have let him go. The most correct conclusion IMO is that they were premature and jumped the gun on this signing. If he is able to maintain his play he would have likely got the same deal in 2 years as a 32 year old. If his play declines they would have got him at a much friendlier rate and would have had a much better idea on possible draft pick compensation had they been considering that route.
martinfv2
“Arguing that his Type A status is not guaranteed and may fall to Type B because of a slip in production does not support the argument that they did the right thing in locking him up.”
I don’t think anyone said it did. This post is less about Howard himself and more about draft picks being an uncertainty.
vanDreamsdyk
Sorry my mistake. I thought that the article you read was discussing the option of the Phillies to let Howard walk to collect draft picks. It seemed as though you were adressing that alternative – by saying, among other points, that he might only get type B status. I was pointing out that in the unlikely scenario his play declines to only type B status worthy this deal would be a colossal failure and that they would have been better off with the compensation pick and avoiding an albatross of a contract.
invader3k
All I remember is how screwed over the Brewers got for losing Sabathia and Sheets after the 2008 season. Granted, Sheets was injured and ended up not playing at all in 2009, but at the time everyone thought they would get some pretty high draft picks for losing two aces. Did not happen.
As a fan, I never want to hear “We get draft picks!” again. Draft picks are an uncertainty and often don’t pan out anyway.