I’ve always said this team would be the best it they had 1 true ace. Just think if they would have gotten Lee or even Lilly…
Steve_Adams
Liriano’s been a 6.0 WAR pitcher and has a 2.31 FIP and 3.02 xFIP, striking out 9.68/9 and walking 2.8/9. I’d call that pretty Ace-like. Lee would’ve been a great addition, sure, but I don’t think it’s fair to say they’re lacking an ace. With all of Lee’s struggles lately, Liriano’s been just as good this season, he just didn’t get all the attention and have the shutouts and minuscule walks to show it. Both are exactly 6.0 WAR pitchers and their ERA, FIP, and xFIP are all nearly identical.
Pretty on target, Brandon. The Twins are a stark contrast from most teams in that they would be better if they had a really good pitcher. Groundbreaking. And if they had gotten Lilly, he would be just ahead of Duensing in WAR. If they had traded for Jeremy Gutherie, they might be undefeated.
Dave_Gershman
Kyle Gibson probably won’t be Major League Ready until at least june or july of 2011. But if the Twns will have almost the same rotation next season, but Rauch, Guerrier, Crain, and Fuentes are all free agents. They need to re-sign at least 3 of them.
Steve_Adams
I don’t know that re-sigining three of them is an answer. They’ve got some good minor league bullpen arms like Slama, Waldrop, and possibly Delaney. They’re all risks to offer arbitration. Of the bunch, Crain’s recent work shows he has the most upside to work out long-term. Fuentes on a reasonable deal maybe, but I don’t think he’ll want to work as a lefty specialist, even if he should. He’ll likely look for a more significant bullpen role elsewhere.
Dave_Gershman
Yeah, Slama and Waldrop are going to be very good relievers, but for a team
like the Twins, you want to make sure that you know what you have. I look at
their current bullpen as “sure things” while Slama for example, could be
very good, but there is nothing that tells me that he will succeed as a
7th/8th inning reliever next season.
Steve_Adams
Most of the Twins relievers over the years — Rauch, Fuentes, and Capps excluded — have come from minor league roles or uncertainty. Crain, Guerrier, and Neshek were all put into those roles out of the minor leagues. Nathan had never closed when he was acquired.
Slama’s ridiculous strikeout numbers suggest he should do just fine in a setup capacity, and Alex Burnett had a great deal of success this season as well before he hit a rough patch.
Manship is an option for relief as well. He’s not much different than Guerrier… pitches to contact, broke into the bigs in his mid-20s doing long relief and spot starting.
I guess I’m of the opinion that there’s bigger needs to spend on than bullpen help. The Twins need an answer every day at second base and need to work on their bench. With the crop of relievers they have in the minors (we haven’t even mentioned Carlos Gutierrez yet, though he’s struggled), I don’t foresee bullpen help being too difficult to come by.
Re-signing one of those relievers (Crain would be the best choice most likely) would be worthwhile. However they’re already going to have Nathan, Capps, Mijares, and probably Manship, plus the possibility of Duensing/Blackburn being at the back-end. Add in Slama at the very least for his phenomenal minor league numbers, and they’re not going to need all of those arms, especially not with those price tags.
twinssniwt
yes, They need to bring in some Relief pitching but with all the arms in the farm, they probably only need one experienced arm and that person does have to be from the 2010 squad. Fuentes, Guerrier, Crain or Rauch will probably be over paid by other teams in 2011.
The_Porcupine
I don’t think the problem is that they lack and “ace” per se, I think Liriano is at least close enough to ace quality that they can get by. But Slowey and Baker have never been more than a #3 to me (now especially since their injuries). The Twins need a solid #2, preferably someone who can strike someone out. It doesn’t have to be a C. Lee. A brett Myers type pitcher, maybe a J. Vazquez type pitcher (get him out of New York and I would wager money that he pitches more like what he career average indicate). Admittingly, I’m not sure which starters are free agents this winter, but they need to target someone who is more than a #3 pitcher. And I agree with SPANdemonium, their bullpen needs to be addressed (perhaps even more important than the rotation- don’t rely on Nathan too much next year).
Steve_Adams
I think Pavano has filled in nicely as a number two this season as well, but you’re correct in saying that there’s no clear-cut “#2 type starter” going forward. Either Baker or Slowey could be that guy, but they need to have some work to do. Both need to get the ball on the ground more and play to Minnesota’s strength: infield defense.
The_Porcupine
I think going with ground ball pitchers works well in the regular season, but you need some power arms in the post season. Going into a 7 game series with Liriano and 3 soft tossers would scare me. Pavano has done well this year, but I still view him more in a #3 role (mostly due to his unreliable track record). The more I think about it, J. Vazquez (anytime other than as a Yankee) is the exact type of pitcher I’m thinking of.
portio
I love Brian Duensing in the role he has basically created for himself: first half reliever, second half starter. While he wont get to 200 innings or a ton of wins, it does two things. 1, add a fantastic left handed arm to the bullpen in the first half. 2, add a quality starter in the second half, which is almost like a trade.
resign pavano, if age catches up to him next year and he regresses, you put duensing in that spot
Why does Duensing STILL have to fight for a rotation spot? He is constantly proving he’s better than Blackburn and Slowey. Shouldn’t those 2 fight it out for the last rotation spot?
Throw Baker into that mix, too. Blackburn’s starts in big games has shown me a lot more than Baker. I don’t buy the Scott Baker hype…I’d love to see Pav, Liriano, Duensing, Blackburn, and some combination of Baker/Slowey/Gibson
Comments for this post have been closed by the site administrator.
Brandon Woodworth
I’ve always said this team would be the best it they had 1 true ace. Just think if they would have gotten Lee or even Lilly…
Steve_Adams
Liriano’s been a 6.0 WAR pitcher and has a 2.31 FIP and 3.02 xFIP, striking out 9.68/9 and walking 2.8/9. I’d call that pretty Ace-like. Lee would’ve been a great addition, sure, but I don’t think it’s fair to say they’re lacking an ace. With all of Lee’s struggles lately, Liriano’s been just as good this season, he just didn’t get all the attention and have the shutouts and minuscule walks to show it. Both are exactly 6.0 WAR pitchers and their ERA, FIP, and xFIP are all nearly identical.
J
Thank you for laying down the facts. It’s annoying that people say the Twins need an ACE. Plus FL is better than Lily.
Matt Helbling
Pretty on target, Brandon. The Twins are a stark contrast from most teams in that they would be better if they had a really good pitcher. Groundbreaking. And if they had gotten Lilly, he would be just ahead of Duensing in WAR. If they had traded for Jeremy Gutherie, they might be undefeated.
Dave_Gershman
Kyle Gibson probably won’t be Major League Ready until at least june or july of 2011. But if the Twns will have almost the same rotation next season, but Rauch, Guerrier, Crain, and Fuentes are all free agents. They need to re-sign at least 3 of them.
Steve_Adams
I don’t know that re-sigining three of them is an answer. They’ve got some good minor league bullpen arms like Slama, Waldrop, and possibly Delaney. They’re all risks to offer arbitration. Of the bunch, Crain’s recent work shows he has the most upside to work out long-term. Fuentes on a reasonable deal maybe, but I don’t think he’ll want to work as a lefty specialist, even if he should. He’ll likely look for a more significant bullpen role elsewhere.
Dave_Gershman
Yeah, Slama and Waldrop are going to be very good relievers, but for a team
like the Twins, you want to make sure that you know what you have. I look at
their current bullpen as “sure things” while Slama for example, could be
very good, but there is nothing that tells me that he will succeed as a
7th/8th inning reliever next season.
Steve_Adams
Most of the Twins relievers over the years — Rauch, Fuentes, and Capps excluded — have come from minor league roles or uncertainty. Crain, Guerrier, and Neshek were all put into those roles out of the minor leagues. Nathan had never closed when he was acquired.
Slama’s ridiculous strikeout numbers suggest he should do just fine in a setup capacity, and Alex Burnett had a great deal of success this season as well before he hit a rough patch.
Manship is an option for relief as well. He’s not much different than Guerrier… pitches to contact, broke into the bigs in his mid-20s doing long relief and spot starting.
I guess I’m of the opinion that there’s bigger needs to spend on than bullpen help. The Twins need an answer every day at second base and need to work on their bench. With the crop of relievers they have in the minors (we haven’t even mentioned Carlos Gutierrez yet, though he’s struggled), I don’t foresee bullpen help being too difficult to come by.
Re-signing one of those relievers (Crain would be the best choice most likely) would be worthwhile. However they’re already going to have Nathan, Capps, Mijares, and probably Manship, plus the possibility of Duensing/Blackburn being at the back-end. Add in Slama at the very least for his phenomenal minor league numbers, and they’re not going to need all of those arms, especially not with those price tags.
twinssniwt
yes, They need to bring in some Relief pitching but with all the arms in the farm, they probably only need one experienced arm and that person does have to be from the 2010 squad. Fuentes, Guerrier, Crain or Rauch will probably be over paid by other teams in 2011.
The_Porcupine
I don’t think the problem is that they lack and “ace” per se, I think Liriano is at least close enough to ace quality that they can get by. But Slowey and Baker have never been more than a #3 to me (now especially since their injuries). The Twins need a solid #2, preferably someone who can strike someone out. It doesn’t have to be a C. Lee. A brett Myers type pitcher, maybe a J. Vazquez type pitcher (get him out of New York and I would wager money that he pitches more like what he career average indicate). Admittingly, I’m not sure which starters are free agents this winter, but they need to target someone who is more than a #3 pitcher. And I agree with SPANdemonium, their bullpen needs to be addressed (perhaps even more important than the rotation- don’t rely on Nathan too much next year).
Steve_Adams
I think Pavano has filled in nicely as a number two this season as well, but you’re correct in saying that there’s no clear-cut “#2 type starter” going forward. Either Baker or Slowey could be that guy, but they need to have some work to do. Both need to get the ball on the ground more and play to Minnesota’s strength: infield defense.
The_Porcupine
I think going with ground ball pitchers works well in the regular season, but you need some power arms in the post season. Going into a 7 game series with Liriano and 3 soft tossers would scare me. Pavano has done well this year, but I still view him more in a #3 role (mostly due to his unreliable track record). The more I think about it, J. Vazquez (anytime other than as a Yankee) is the exact type of pitcher I’m thinking of.
portio
I love Brian Duensing in the role he has basically created for himself: first half reliever, second half starter. While he wont get to 200 innings or a ton of wins, it does two things. 1, add a fantastic left handed arm to the bullpen in the first half. 2, add a quality starter in the second half, which is almost like a trade.
resign pavano, if age catches up to him next year and he regresses, you put duensing in that spot
Branden
Why does Duensing STILL have to fight for a rotation spot? He is constantly proving he’s better than Blackburn and Slowey. Shouldn’t those 2 fight it out for the last rotation spot?
Steve Mollick
Throw Baker into that mix, too. Blackburn’s starts in big games has shown me a lot more than Baker. I don’t buy the Scott Baker hype…I’d love to see Pav, Liriano, Duensing, Blackburn, and some combination of Baker/Slowey/Gibson