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By Ben Nicholson-Smith | at
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Dante DeStefano
Still nothing on the DeRosa contract amount? How does no one have that info yet?
James Joyce
Nats are relying on Ian Desmond and Danny Espinosa at the top of the order? Not playoff team stuff there. Zim’s gonna hit a lot of solo shots.
Some_guy_with_something_to_say
There’s some reason to hope that Espinosa’s OBP can improve significantly. Unfortunately, I don’t think that’s the case with Desmond.
PieroB
Both Lombardozzi and DeRosa can pick up the slack for Desmond or Espinosa. Desmond could easily and quickly lose his job and end up back in AAA.
But the statistical truth is the Nats lack impact hitters such as a Berkman, Holiday, Fielder, Votto … closest are Morse and Zimmerman. Harper and Rendon perhaps in the near future … they really need those more than a lead-off hitter. And NO, Dunn and Willingham weren’t impact hitters Morse managed to exceed both in that category. As mentioned Ramos also looks like he may have potential to provide this. As does Flores. And Espinosa is still developing and he too could provide this desperately needed asset in time.
Harper is fast enough and good enough to lead off as well. And perhaps Corey Brown? I’m not worried about lead-off as much as having impact hitters (especially left-handed) in the lineup.
Some_guy_with_something_to_say
There’s no reason to believe that DeRosa or Lombardozzi would be improvements over Desmond. Lombardozzi only has 31 major league at bats, and he’s just 23. He might be better than Desmond eventually, but there’s also a very good chance that he’ll struggle to adjust to major league pitching. DeRosa hasn’t hit in 3 years (and for that matter, he’s only played 4 innings at 2B since 2008).
They problem isn’t necessarily that they lack a lead-off hitter type, it’s that the guys they put in that spot in the lineup can’t get on base.
I don’t really understand what you’re trying to say about an impact hitter. There’s no one in the Nats lineup who has put up numbers like Fielder or Votto, but Morse’s 2011 and Zimmerman’s 2010 were comparable with Holliday’s 2009-2011 seasons and better than Berkman’s.
Furthermore, I’d argue that your theory on “impact hitters” is just plain wrong. The Phillies won 102 games last year without an impact hitter other than Hunter Pence, and he didn’t show up until game #106 (they played .628 ball before he got there, and .630 ball after). Teams score runs based on the offensive production of their entire lineup — and that can be achieved with or without “impact” hitters.
Nobody thinks that the Nats will win a lot of games if they don’t get good offensive seasons from Morse, Zimmerman, Werth, Espinosa and Ramos, plus some contribution from Desmond, Lombo, Harper and LaRoche.
Edit:
Morse wOBA in 2011: .387. Zimmerman wOBA in 2010: .389.
Holliday 3-year average 2009-2011: .393. Berkman: .378.
2011 Phillies: Howard: .354; Victorino: .372; Mayberry: .369; Utley: .344.
So, yeah, what I wrote was exactly right. Morse in 2011 and Zimmerman in 2010 were comparable to Holliday over the past 3 years and better than Berkman. They were also better than any of the Phillies in 2011 until Pence showed up.
The Nationals would have been better served by replacing Desmond and Ankiel with league average players than by replacing Morse with Votto. Do the math. And learn to write.
(And not that it matters, but Dunn and Willingham were both better in 2010 than Berkman’s average year from 2009-2011, and Dunn’s 2009 was better than Holliday’s 2009-2011 average year.)
PieroB
And I would say you’re “just plain wrong” dude. You know very little about baseball with this utter and complete nonsense!
No impact hitters on the Philllies? You know very little about the NL East that’s for sure. What do you call Ryan Howard for starters? John Mayberry? Shane Victorino? And Utley when he is healthy.
What defines an impact hitter? Clearly YOU DON’T KNOW? Pujols class hitter. Yes, that’s Berkman, that’s Votto? Is there a way to quantify this? Yes, using a stat that is often mangled into calculating a WAR for a player its called the bRAA.
The Nats only had one player who managed to get a decent bRAA last season and that was Morse. Zimmerman managed a pretty decent one but due to the injury and surgery not in the same neighborhood as an impact hitter.
William Kafer
John Mayberry is an impact hitter, but no one on the Nationals is. Got it.
NatsTown
So John Maberry and Shane Victorino are impact hitters but Ryan Zimmerman and Michael Morse arent? Come on dude.
Some_guy_with_something_to_say
Morse put up a .387 wOBA last year and Zimmerman put up a .389 in 2010. Holliday’s 3 year average from 2009-2011 was .393, and Berkman’s was .378.
Last year, none of the 4 Phillies matched Morse’s 2011 or Zimmerman’s 2010 in wOBA.
The wRAA numbers are comparable, since they’re extrapolated from wOBA.
So yeah, what I wrote was right. Don’t be a jerk when you can’t back it up. And learn to write.
The whole baseball theory that wRAA is based on is that you win by creating runs in your lineup. It doesn’t matter if 9 guys create 80 runs a piece or if one guy creates 160 by himself and the other 8 create 70 a piece: you’ve still created 720 runs.
The Nationals need to create more runs, and they can do that by bringing their weak positions up to league average or by adding studs on top of the lineup they have. The Nats aren’t bad because they lack Pujols caliber hitters, they’re bad because their lineup is bad and one way to improve the lineup would be add a Pujols caliber hitter. Last year the Nationals would have been better off replacing Desmond and Ankiel with league average hitters than if they had replaced Morse with Votto.
Guest 4701
I’ve all but given up on trying with desmond..all he does at this point is get me worked up.
rockfordone
nice .500 team – short in many areas – it will take time
PieroB
Pitching and pretty good defense propelled Tampa Bay and the Giants to the playoffs. Even with sputtering and at times pathetic offense … why not the Nats?
LUWahooNatFan
Team went 80-81 last year.. if you think they’ll finish only one game better, you aren’t very bright
rockfordone
Because I like three other teams in that division. Phils, Braves and Fish. Pretty much spells .500
LUWahooNatFan
You like the Fish, who finished 8.5 games below the Nationals last year over them? Ok.
rockfordone
yes – added speed and defense (Reyes) SP (Buehrle and Big Z) and closer (Bell)
NatsTown
Edwin Jackson and Gio Gonzales > Buehrle and Zambrano and our bullpen is infinitly better than the fish. Sure Reyes is great and all but he single handedly doesnt make them better, plus you have all that dysfunction in the locker room.
headsupkid01
Your getting they. At least the team is moving forward and not rebuilding the team year after year like some clubs.
jdouble777
“The next step” hinges on Harper, and will continue to do so for years to come. If/when he explodes onto the scene as a Kemp-like MVP player the offense suddenly works and the above average defense, bull pen, and rotation become championship caliber. Someone mentioned the Giants run and I want to encourage you to think about the various players that had terrific offense season that year to get that done.
Realistically, this is no the year. Next season Strasburg will be able to be Carpenter of last year and Lincecum of the year before, Harper will be hitting ahead of Zimmerman and relegating Werth to CF/5 hole, and the rest of youth will have grown season (Ramos, Espy, Storen, J. Zimmerman). Should a solid CF be added that at 50 SBs, puts a CF glove like Werth’s in the corner and Morse ends up at 1B where he belongs I think the offense suddenly parallels the Phillies of ole’.
This year will be more fun than last and next year things will be for real. That said, if the young guys reach their potential quicker and Harper bursts onto the scene then this season might get interesting, especially if a July trade for a legit CF takes place.
LUWahooNatFan
Nationals need a lead-off man pretty badly, and I don’t see a single very good candidate on the roster besides perhaps Lombardozzi, but Rizzo and Co. seem to love Desmond. Frankly, I think this is a make or break year for Desmond, if he doesn’t put up better numbers then he has thus fan, don’t be surprised to see an infield of Espinosa/Dozzi with Rendon factoring in at some point.
At this point, I don’t see the point in trying to aquire a CF if Harper already has the position in AAA and it’s just a matter of time before he’s in D.C… Though personally I’d rather move him to a corner spot with Werth and go after one of (Upton, Victorino, or Bourn) this off-season, allowing for Morse to move to 1B.
Pitching looks solid, though I’d rather have Detwiler in the 5-spot then Lannan, who in my opinion is either getting traded at some point this year or non-tendered after the year.