Email a copy of 'Looking Back At The 2012 Arbitration Projections' to a friend
Loading ...
By Matt Swartz | at
Email a copy of 'Looking Back At The 2012 Arbitration Projections' to a friend
MLB Trade Rumors is not affiliated with Major League Baseball, MLB or MLB.com
hide arrows scroll to top
BaseballWizard
A few comments:
1) As you state in the case of Porcello and Price (among others), previous salary is irrelevant for all first-time eligible players (short of relevance if the team wants to cut a player’s salary).
2) Raise also means very little in a case like Melky Cabrera who is re-entering the arbitration system after being non-tendered the year before. Because his previous salary wasn’t set in the arbitration system, his career contribution has a stronger effect than other 2nd/3rd/4th-time eligible players.
3) Players like Miller and Litsch are difficult to project when they sign before the tender date. Many of these players are faced with a decision to take a below-market arbitration contract or face being non-tendered. A large majority of contracts signed before the tender date will underperform any projection. Also, they are ignored as comparables for other players moving forward for that same reason.
Patrick OKennedy
Great work, Matt. I have come to this conclusion on Porcello- which I think was the biggest miss of the group. I think that his salary in 2011 was a way of spreading out what was essentially a signing bonus. The Tigers went way over slot for Porcello as it was, and piling that salary on top of the bonus would have put the club even further afoul of Selig’s slot recommendation.
The Tigers gave Porcello a healthy bonus to sign, $ 3.58 MM for a No 27 overall pick, but they also gave him a major league contract which starts the clock ticking toward his major league career, where he will make real money, and they gave him salary which was guaranteed even if he’s in the minors, but the right to opt out if he were actually eligible for arbitration. So, in essence, that salary was part of the signing perk. Even though salary history is one of the stated criteria in the CBA for the arbitration panel, it apparently didn’t factor in this case for a first time arb eligible player, who typically will be getting at or near the major league minimum for the first two years of service.
Rick also had a pretty good arbitration partner on his own club, in Max Scherzer. Max was also a first round pick, and they’ve had similar career paths. Rick was sent down to the minors just long enough to push him BACK into super two status. Max was also demoted, but not for long enough to have that impact. While Porcello will have four years of arbitration, he also will be under “club control” a year longer than Scherzer, unless Max is demoted again for a period of time. Max’s numbers were just better than Porcello’s in each of the past two seasons, and he has just a bit more service time, so he logically should get a bit more in arbitration.
blagblag4488
Good job, nice explanations. This is the kind of stuff that keeps me coming back.