Email a copy of 'Extension Candidate: Melky Cabrera' to a friend
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By Mark Polishuk | at
Email a copy of 'Extension Candidate: Melky Cabrera' to a friend
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tomymogo
Is this the same guy, he was absolutely horrible with Atlanta. Awful defense, bad runner, and his offense was a bunch of bloop singles
notsureifsrs
if his babip in atlanta (.288) were the same as it is now (.375) (or was last year – .332), you would have been fooled, too. he hasn’t really changed much
ZAK A.
Simple reason: he was out of shape. His training regiment was responsible for the turnaround in KC, and it’s the same this year.
AmericanMovieFan
I think a 4 year/$30MM deal would be perfect. Remains cheap on the back end, but gives Melky the financial security he’s no doubt looking for.
BLB25
Thats a lot less than he’ll get.
AmericanMovieFan
That’s funny because just a couple years ago most people I talked to about him said he’d never be more than a $5MM a year player and would never get more than a 3 year/$15MM deal. Now people think he could get as high as 4 years/$40MM or more.
BLB25
Yea, he wasn’t really a good player a couple years ago. But he had a really, really good 2011 and while it looked like it was mostly due to an unsustainably high BABIP, he’s been even better in 2012. There probably won’t be a better under 30 free agent hitter on the free agent market. He was a 4 WAR player last season and looks to have a good shot to be that again. He’d only have to be a 2-3 WAR player each year of the contract to be worth 10 mil per. I wouldn’t bet on that happening in his age 32 season, but it definitely seems like a real possibility for the next couple years. 4/40-50 seems like the correct range to me, depending on how he performs the rest of the year.
notsureifsrs
there isn’t really any reason to think his BABIP is sustainable. it’s been around .350 since the beginning of 2011, driven almost entirely by hits on groundballs
he may very well settle in as an adequate regular – that would be a big improvement. but there’s nothing there to suggest his talent level is anything approaching 4/50
having said that, there’s no accounting for brian sabean
johnsilver
“having said that, there’s no accounting for brian sabean”
Isn’t that the truth. He wisely extended Cain and if would just focus on Lincecum, he’ll be fine. Sabean always gets sidetracked giving out contracts to has beens and half ball players like Rowand.. What I call pyrite players.. Cabrera is another.
He has another REAL gold player right in front of him in Lincecum and should maintain focus on him, but always likes to throw the little bit of money after people of little use, or hope for some reason.
corky51
BABIP or not, the guy has been hitting just under .340 since last July. It seems like he’s already settled in as an “adequate regular”. He’s either become awfully lucky or awfully good. We’ll see.
corky51
Absolute best he’ll get is 4 years/$40mm. Not too shabby though, when you look back 2 years.
Kurisu Rg
Why was the Royals/Giants trade “risky” for Sanfran? They only gave up Jonathan Sanchez.
Ray Reyes
The money is there to sign them with Zito and Huff coming of the books soon
bigpat
Safe to say that trade worked out pretty well… Sabean still has a few good moves left I suppose.
yanksfan2010
I always liked Melky when he played for the Yankees. I wish him the best and hope he keeps up his good hitting.
Jared Richard
Jonathan Sanchez was a “promising young left hander”? HUH?? He’ll be 30 this year, has a lifetime 4.34 ERA and a 1.40 WHIP with a 2:1 strikeout/walk ratio. The guy is a complete headcase who will strikeout 4 batters in a row and then WALK 4 batters in a row. I guess you remember him from the 2010 World Series team, right? His line against the Rangers: 4.2 IP, 6 H, 4 ER, gave up 2 home runs, walked 3… for a 7.71 ERA. But yeah. He’s promising. And young.
Hal
LOL I couldn’t have said that any better, well done!
shermanatr
Sanchez was a complete basket case by the end of last season. He’ll be out of baseball by this time next year. Guaranteed. The Giants should have traded him sooner.
ZAK A.
I’ll take that bet. Ask Choo or Utley about that head. NO head case could be worse than that.
But i disagree they should’ve traded him sooner considering that they wouldn’t have gotten Melky (they tried last year).
dlineback
I really don’t like how people rely on BABIP to show how lucky or
unlucky a player is. Maybe Melky has learned how to make solid contact
more consistently, and is hitting balls by the defenders.. Instead of
hitting it weakly and giving them a chance to get him out. I’ve watched a lot of Melky this year.. it’s been a lot of hard line drives and going to the opposite field. It’s not like every time he’s getting lucky and squeaking it through the infield.
notsureifsrs
the fact that someone mentions BABIP doesn’t mean they are ‘relying’ on it to show luck. if melky had a 30% line drive rate, we wouldn’t call it luck (though it would still be unsustainable). argue with the data
line drive %
2010: 19%
2011: 20%
2012: 17%
groundball %
2010: 48%
2011: 47%
2012: 57%
sOPS+ on groundballs (how much better or worse he did than league average, which is 100)
2010: 84 (worse)
2011: 162 (way better)
2012: 210 (way, way better)
dlineback
That’s all good data and I appreciate the response. Although I just feel like he’s become an overall better hitter.. especially with being smart of where he tries to hit the ball based on the situation and where the defense is playing him
ZAK A.
Don’t forget, Aaron Rowand won’t be getting 12mil to sit on his couch next year, Huff will be gone, Freddy Sanchez will be gone. That right there is nearly 30mil. Giants will be plenty well capable of signing Cabrera and with his power to the massive gaps of ATT park they’d be fools to let him go. Where people are still bemoaning the loss of Beltran he didn’t show the kind of gap power/speed combo that park demands.
Cabrera could take his abilities to the limit there. He’s impossible to defend in RF, LH or RH. He can go straight down the line RH or hit triple’s alley with ease LH and vice versa.
BradyAndersonsSideburns
I have a feeling that whoever ends up giving Melky 8+ million a season will end up regretting it…this has Garry Matthews Jr written all over it
corky51
Gary Matthews, Jr had only one very good year in his entire career. It came at age 31. That is called a “career year”. Melky Cabrera had one very good year at age 26. At age 26, that is a “breakout year”. Melky is now putting together another very good year at age 27. This is just the beginning for him.
ugotrpk3113
If I’m a Giants fan, I’m crying at the thought of another average player getting unnecessary money/years. Those fans deserve better.
InConference
At the moment only Matt Kemp is more average than Melky. Have you been paying attention? He leads the league in so many categories there isn’t enough room here to mention. Then the guys out and out hustle is a pleasure to watch.
Aaron Fisher
If the giants give Melky a good extension and it turns out it was a fluke last year and what we are seeing this year with his hitting he still has an above average arm in the outfield which is very valuable when playing at AT&T. Yes we would love it if he can really hit like he has been but having an amazing outfielder is still worth while.