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By Tim Dierkes | at
Email a copy of 'Trade Targets Who Could Bring Draft Pick Compensation' to a friend
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ThinkBlue10
Send Josh Johnson over to Chavez Ravine
johnsilver
I am a Marlins fan 1st of all before another here says anything..But..
Chances are JJ would get injured on the flight to LA..
ThinkBlue10
You’re probably right but I think it’ll be worth the risk.
Patrick OKennedy
Players that I expect to get qualifying offers if they aren’t extended first:
Cole Hamels, Mike Napoli, Josh Hamilton, David Ortiz, Ryan Dempster, Zach Greinke, Edwin Jackson, Sean Marcum,
maybe Nick Swisher, maybe Carlos Lee, maybe Torii Hunter, maybe Carlos Quentin, possibly BJ Upton.
If I had to wager, I’d bet against most of the maybes above. There may be some that figure to get multi year deals who are sure to decline a one year offer, and a GM might take the calculated risk, but that’s pretty much the list of players that fit in the top 125 average.
lefty177
Lee & Quentin can’t get qualifying offers because they were traded during the season
lefty177
Idk why I said Quentin, my bad
Zachery Burr
First off, every team who is a World Series contender this year, already have an ace in place. They want to trade for a guy that is going to make them that much better down the stretch and in the playoffs. With that logic, if I am the GM of that team I would without a doubt trade for Ryan Dempster before any of the other three options since he would cost way less, and give you almost as much. He wouldn’t give you as much as Hamels or Grienke possibly would, but close enough where he is a much better option than giving up the entire farm for Hamels or Grienke.
Now secondly, Grienke is a stud #1 yet Garza is a decent #2 or great #3?? I beg to differ. Lets look at their stats since 2008, when they both started putting up their consistent numbers year in and year out.
Grienke: WHIP 1.21, ERA 3.44, SO/9 8.9, BB/9 2.3
Garza: WHIP 1.24, ERA 3.84, SO/9 7.7, BB/9 2.9
I think the numbers support that although Garza might not be Grienke, he is definitely better than a decent #2, he is a top #2, right below the top tier of pitchers. But to me, I would find it more likely that any team that trades for Garza, would be planning on signing him long term, assuming they already have an ace. I don’t see Garza getting Matt Cain money. I see him getting a 5 year deal for around 100 million dollars, which to me, is fair since it is right below the ace level contracts.
Kev
Garza has a 4.16 FIP (3.56 xFIP)
Greinke has a 2.55 FIP (2.80 xFIP) with a BABIP that’s due to come down some.
Garza is not a top #2. He is a #3 on a contending team. You could argue that he could be a meh #2 if he was in a park that was giving up fewer homers, because that seems to be Garza’s problem this year. However, Wrigley is actually right around the middle for home run factor this season, so he would have to go to a team that plays in a friendly pitcher’s haven to extract benefit. Aside from one standout year, (not coincidentally, the year he moved from the AL East to the NL Central) he has been very uninspiring.
Also, even though I think Dempster would be a nice get for a contending team if they can get him on the cheap, he is due for some serious regression. Through nearly 100 innings, he’s got a ridiculous .242 BABIP against, an 85% LOB and he’s giving up far, far fewer home runs than he normally does. This is not sustainable at all. I would be careful with him.
Zachery Burr
For a contender like the Rangers who have to go all in this year with Hamilton and Napoli possibly leaving in the offseason, I agree Dempster is to risky, it has be Cole or Grienke. But for a contender like the Angels, Dodgers and especially the Orioles, Dempster is worth the risk. Angels have a weak system as it is, Dodgers always need depth, and the Orioles obviously aren’t gonna trade away their future. Regarding Garza, that is a valid point, but I was never comparing Garza to Grienke. Grienke is a legit ace and Garza isn’t, I was trying to show that their numbers aren’t as far off as some make them seem. Also, as we have seen the past couple years, World Series Champions seem to have at least two legit aces in their rotation. Any World Series contender that trades for Garza isn’t looking for him to be their #2 starter. They are looking for him to be a #3 or #4 for them in the playoffs, which would give them the advantage over whoever they face. The Giants won in 2010 against the Rangers because Cain, Sanchez, and
Bumgarner pitched like #1 and #2 starters up against legit #3 and #4
starters for the Rangers. Which would be the idea with Garza. But even though Matt Cain has been the #2 starter for the Giants, everybody around baseball would agree that he is legit ace for any team. Matt Garza in most legit contenders rotations would be a #3 strictly because great teams seem to have at least two #1 starters unless you have the offense of the Rangers or Yankees. You are right that he might not be a top #2 but he is still not a #3. He is somewhere in-between a #2 and #3. There are 1a and 1b starters, well he is a 2b. I would put Garza ahead of a Shaun Marcum who I think is the definition of a legit #3, below Yovani Gallardo, who I think is a legit 2a and equal with Gio Gonzalez who I think is also a 2b.