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By Ben Nicholson-Smith | at
Email a copy of 'Offseason Outlook: Milwaukee Brewers' to a friend
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SpeedS28
You can only be optimistic about the Brewers, that’s all you can ask for. They will be a fun team next year regardless of who they add as they will be getting back Gamel, a nice young rotation, + some veteran makes for another winning season….. hopefully.
daveineg
Add multiple arms to the rotation? Earlier in the article you pointed out 4 guys with “breakout performances” and correctly so. So you also suggest they should add multiple arms (likely mediocre overpriced veterans) to the rotation? What do you do with the 4 cheap productive breakout arms? They are all ready to be full time major league starters.
This pitching staff nearly broke the major league record for strikeouts. They could use a top end starter to pair with Gallardo. But adding pricey guys because they are veterans makes zero sense.
It’s not like these 4 are the only starting candidates other than Gallardo either. Narveson is on track to return. Tyler Thornburg was ok in a few starts. Hiram Burgos went from single A to AAA and was their minor league pitcher of the year. 2011 first round pick Jungmann will start next year at AA.
donnie_uwo
The young bucks played well, but it’s a small sample size. It’s just too difficult to expect all of them to pitch similarly as well next season. I think a lineup of Gallardo, Estrada, Fiers, and Peralta (with Narveson, Rogers, and Thornburg waiting on deck) and bringing in Haren or Sanchez on no more than a three year contract would be adequate enough. I wouldn’t want to give Dempster or Jackson more than one year or Lohse more than two.
SumatranRatMonkey
Yep. Rogers is worrisome because he’s only once pitched more than 130 innings in his career(which was last year). He doesn’t have any options left so the Brewers are going to have to go with him somewhere, maybe the pen? Peralta hopefully can start the year with his command, though I think it would be reasonable to have him start in AAA. Thornburg absolutely should start in AAA next year. Narveson…man I hate to just non-tender him after an injury when he can contribute to a major league team, but I don’t believe there is room for him on the team, really.
David J. Poetter
Personally, I absolutely LOVE the idea of Rogers in the bullpen.
It’s a great way to limit his innings. You could use him as a long reliever/6th starter, and let Thornburg and Burgos develop at Nashville.
I’ve always kinda wondered if he could ever make it as a closer. He’s got the stuff for it. Clearly he’s got the mental toughness (most players with his injury troubles and bad luck would have given up long ago. He toughed it out). Just needs the health.
I also agree with Narveson, too. I like him. He throws strikes. Decent k rate, and solid at the end of a rotation. And he’s lefty. But coming off another major arm injury, I’d risk the non-tender, and try to resign him to a minor league deal with an invite to Spring Training, and an opt-out if he isn’t in Milwaukee by a certain date. Lets him have an honest shot at a starting spot (he’s much better starting than relieving), competing with Fiers and Peralta. If he don’t make it, he can stay stretched out in Nashville should the need arise. If it don’t, if he’s solid in Nashville, he’d be tradeable, or at least of interest to someone with an opening in he does opt-out. Chance to prove his arm is fine, too. Whether he’d take a deal like that, I don’t know. Couldn’t fully blame him if he don’t, but it seems like the only way he has a chance in Milwaukee.
toddcoffeytime
I’d almost rather have Peralta stashed in AAA and keep Narveson in the starting rotation based on Wily’s command issues. Peralta would then be available to fill in as a reliever or starter as need arises mid-season.
David J. Poetter
It almost seemed like with Peralta that starting the year in AAA felt like a setback to him, and it took him a while to get on track. As the season went on, he seemed to really embrace both the challenge and opportunity as only got better.
He pitched his best in Milwaukee once called up.
I wouldn’t personally guarantee him one of the #4/#5 spots in the rotation, but I’d let it basically be his to lose. Keep the best two of Fiers/Peralta/Narveson, and send the other one to Nashville to keep them stretched out.
Ken West
You simply cannot go into the season with 4 guys in the rotation that have never pitched a full season in the majors. The injury risk is too high, the performance risks are too high and the innings limits are a killer. They need to add at least one established regular starter and make at least one if not two of the young guys depth.
daveineg
You might want to check Oakland’s staff this year Ken. Fiers logged 182 2/3 innings and will turns 28 in June. Estrada is 29 (turns 30 next season). They combined for 45 major league starts in 2012. Rogers turns 27 in January and he logged 134 innings this year. Peralta logged 175 innings this year. We’re not talking about babies here. These are grown men. Of these only Rogers figures to be on any type of limit and that’s probably around 170 innings, hardly an issue.
Besides Narveson is already well into a throwing program and there’s Thornburg and Burgos (171 IP in 2012) behind them.
This team took off when Randy Wolf was sent packing and Mark Rogers took his place. That’s no coincidence. As my original post mentioned, they could use one guy who can front the rotation along with Gallardo. But it makes no sense to sign a middling starter to a multi year deal. especially one past 30.
One more thing about the supposed “performance risk” There is no risk for guys who are making at or near minimum salary. If they don’t perform, they get sent down (Peralta and Fiers have options), put in the bullpen (Estrada or Rogers), or released (Narveson), and somebody else, like a Thornburg, or a Burgos or a Jungmann gets an opportunity. Performance risk comes when you invest a lot of money in a veteran and he struggles. Then you are stuck.
Finally, in today’s game you play the first half for position. They have a lineup fully capable of keeping them in the thick the first half regardless of who’s on the mound. If they need to add a vet or two for the stretch run, that’s the time you do it.
Dan
Oaklands pitching staff started with Bartolo Colon (3.43 ERA) and Brandon McCarthy (3.24 ERA) in it and the Brewers took off when the bullpen quit blowing leads unless you believe Randy Wolf was the reason K-Rod and Axford sucked so much last year.
I know you’re probably one of the many people who want Melvin to sleep for the offseason but going into the season with rotation full of unproven guys who most project as #5 starters or long relievers is the epitome of taking a risk. Everyone loves to point at how great Fiers/Peralta/Rogers pitched in the majors but conveniently forget about their mid 4 ERA’s in AAA. I’m not saying these guys suck but to think they can replicate their performances from a year ago would be extremely foolish when it looks like Mike Fiers has already been figured out (6.99 ERA in his last 10 starts).
David J. Poetter
Fiers isn’t a hard thrower, but more of a command pitcher. It seemed like towards the end, his command started getting away from him some, which is likely the result of tiring out, I’d imagine.
He showed me enough to let him have a real shot at being a starter next season in the #4 or #5 spot.
Dan
I don’t buy the he was tired excuse. He was striking out a ton of guys (18 in his last 2 starts) but was still getting tattoed. I think the way he pitched at the end of the year is what he is. A homer prone back of the rotation starter with a below average stuff.
Warboss74
Oakland didn’t go into the season with 4 guys who hadn’t pitched a full season, though. They went into ST with veterans Brandon McCarthy, Brett Anderson, and Bartolo Colon.
The performance risk factor with them has nothing to do with salary. Its about planning and building a contending roster. Switching them in and out doesn’t negate the risk with them in the context of building the team. This doesn’t mean a team should never slot in rookies/ unproven players in the lineup or rotation.
You mean the same offense that was 12 games under .500 through almost 5 months of the season? The Brewers also have to anticipate the likely regression in their lineup as well when making decisions this offseason.
David J. Poetter
Really was more because of an extremely bad bullpen than because of the offense.
Regression could happen with some players, sure, but you’d also have to factor in improvements to other parts of the lineup. No way Weeks hits under .200 for half the year, especially when he kept his OB% over .310 during that time. What does an improved bullpen do for the teams w/l record? I can’t remember a Brewers bullpen as bad as it was last April – August. Not even in the 106-loss 2002 season was it that bad. How about having Lucroy all season? He was playing All-Star caliber ball before getting hurt. Played well coming back. Plus, look at the SS position last year from the time Gonzalez (and then Izturis) went down with injuries until Segura got the nod. This likely improves, too.
Hard to say, of course, but I doubt with basically the same line-up they really regress much, if at all. I doubt they get much better, if at all, from last year, either.
Shawn Millin
I think Alex Gonzalez as contract option has been overlooked here. That should also figure in on the comments about Segura and shortstop.
David J. Poetter
Since Segura is still young, and he’s still relatively new to SS, I’d be fine with having Segura start at Nashville, and resign Gonzales for 2013. He’d probably be fine with a one-year deal with his age and coming off an injury. Obviously, if you’re gonna just go with Segura no matter what, Gonzalez isn’t an option anymore. He’s gonna wanna try to get a starting gig somewhere, and he probably would.
Brandon Reynolds
gonzalez only has an option if he met the requirements… and it was a player option not a club… which wouldnt be a good option anyway… another year older and who knows how he will come off the injury… he would have to take a pay cut to stay with the brewers now that segura is an option we have
toddcoffeytime
It’s not a contract option, it’s a vesting option based on plate appearances–which A Gonz did not reach given his injury.
sourbob
Do Brewers fans still have faith in Gamel, or would you rather see them acquire a 1B or move Hart to first and get another OF?
AaronAngst
Gamel still has not received consistent at-bats at the big league level – last year it just happened to be due to injury, so I don’t know what to make of him. I like the idea of having him around to play 1B when there’s an exceptionally tough RHP on the mound, or even 3B when Ramirez needs a day off – In any case, it looks like he’s going to fail to receive consistent at-bats yet again.
sourbob
At some point, you have to wonder if Gamel is going to need a change of scenery to put it together.
David J. Poetter
Well, he might. I’d imagine Milwaukee gives him an honest shot, but I’d also imagine the leash is rather short, with Hart playing very well at first, Taylor Green an option as a low-cost back-up who can play 1B/2B/3B/DH (Interleague games), and the emergence of Hunter Morris.
This most likely is his absolute last chance to stick in Milwaukee in some capacity.
Flharfh
I think Aoki has performed well enough to earn the RF starting job with Hart moving permanently to 1B. Gamel will presumably be coming off the bench if healthy.
sourbob
You still like Gomez for CF then? I can see that, I guess.
Novak
Aoki doesn’t look all that impressive defensively in RF, let alone in CF; so he isn’t going to be the starting CF, if that’s what you mean. Gomez should be starting in CF for his defense alone; and getting to play an entire season should allow Gomez to hit 20+ homers easily next year.
toddcoffeytime
Gomez definitely earned the spot to play in CF everyday, and if he were to revert to some of the difficulties against RHP, Logan Shafer would take over Nyjer Morgan as a platoon partner.
Hart at 1B looks like one of the better moves of the last season for the Brewers as his RF defense was pretty miserable
David J. Poetter
I still see a place for Gamel on this roster. Especially now with increased interleague play.
He was misused so poorly by Ken Macha, and just rotted on the bench when he did come up. Milwaukee probably should have let him stay in Nashville, so he could play regular. Last year was the first year he had any real chance to start in Milwaukee. I though he did ok for a first year starter. He’s done nothing but hit with regular playing time.
He’s young, he’s cheap, and he probably has a chance at Lyle Overbay (Milwaukee years) type production (with a little more power) with consistent playing time. I’d like to give him 2013 to prove himself again. If he can’t make it through the year, obviously then you try to keep Hart in Milwaukee at least long enough for Hunter Morris to make it up, and let Gamel move on. If he can, and plays well, he’s possibly able to hold the fort down at 1st instead of Hart, and you can save a ton of money at the position by trading Hart, or letting him walk after 2013.
sourbob
Gamel hasn’t broken a .350 SLG in the majors in three years. I know he still hits in the minors, but this would concern me. Maybe you’re right and he just needs an extended run playing every day while healthy.
David J. Poetter
In 2009, he had 128 AB (148 PA), in 61 games. His SLG% was .422
He’s never had more than 69 AB (75 PA) after that, and those numbers came last season in 21 games.
It’s really hard to know what a kid can do with 240 AB (269 PA) scattered over 5 seasons when you know you have had zero chance at consistent playing time for 4 of those 5 seasons.
sourbob
I appreciate the info. I’m a Cub fan, so I really wasn’t sure what kind of read people have on Gamel these days. It’s nice to be able to ask a simple question and learn some things when people give a good answer.
David J. Poetter
No problem, sourbob.
Guest 4106
Kameron Loe is not a non tender candidate but Jose Veras is a non tender candidate. That makes no sense.
toddcoffeytime
Kameron Loe is a) Better and b) A ground ball specialist, which is basically a requirement in a modern bullpen. It absolutely does make sense.
Justin Timberpond
Aoki
Weeks
Braun
Aramis
Lucroy
Hart
Carlos in CF
Segura
Gallardo
Haren
Peralta
Fiers/Estrada/Free Agent…?
Rogers
I don’t know about Estrada/Fiers/Thornburg but i really think Peralta and Rogers are ready to go balls to the wall
Also, IM SAYING GRIENKE COMES BACK (Grienke, gallardo, peralta, estrada/fiers, rogers)
tonyc-2
Don’t be completely surprised if Melvin makes some noise with a moderately high profile trade to get some pitching help. I could see Lucroy or Maldonado being packaged with another roster player or minor league prospect for a starter. Personally I would prefer to see Maldonado as our starter simply for the reason he is a better defensive catcher. I would hate to see Lucroy head elsewhere but this is a business and you do what you can to improve the team. Yes Lucroy is better at the plate but his ability to throw runners out is lacking. Maldonado has shown improvement at the plate and will probably get better. Look at the upside, his arm is pinpoint throwing to 2nd.
David J. Poetter
I would not want this unless Milwaukee received a king’s ransom in return.
Two catchers with team friendly price tags for years, and starting caliber is a luxury. What kind of package do you become willing to move Lucroy for, and who’s your backup catcher now?
JustinS
I would love to see the Brewers trade away 3B Mat Gamel and CF Carlos Gomez for a LHP like Jon Lester. Then, sign CF B.J. Upton and RHP Gavin Floyd. Put LHP Narveson and RHP Estrada in the Bullpen. Then the starting rotation would look like this: Gallardo, Lester, Floyd, Fiers, Peralta. Then also sign a left handed relief pitcher like Sean Burnett or J.P. Howell. Have the bullpen look like this: RHP Kintzler, RHP Rogers, LHP Howell or Burnett, LHP Narveson, RHP Estrada, RHP Henderson, and Closer RHP Axford…maybe sign a verteran RHP to be a setup man for Axford along with RHP Henderson. As for the infield, have SS Jean Segura as their opening day starter, but also resign SS Alex Gonzalez to backup Segura and also backup 2B Rickie Weeks.