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By charliewilmoth | at
Email a copy of 'The Changing Closer Market' to a friend
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Christopher A. Otto
Excellent commentary. …. the one possible exception is that it will be interesting to see what kind of money Kimbrel gets if he reaches free agency as a healthy pitcher. … He would seem to warrant Papelbon money, no?
Frittoman626 2
I might be hesitant to give Kimbrel big money. While he is the best closer in baseball and has been since his rookie year, his mechanics scare me a little. He throws a fastball in the high 90’s and a slider which are known to put real strain in the arm. Not saying that necessarily means he’s guaranteed to get injured, but it is pretty concerning. We’ve also seen how closers start to wear down as they age, for every Mariano Rivera and Trevor Hoffman there’s an Eric Gagne and Francisco Rodriguez. If he were a Free Agent today I’d give him way more money than Papelbon, but whenever he becomes a free agent I would prob try and give him something around what Papelbon and Soriano got, even if he’s been healthy to that point, but again that’s just me. So to answer your question, yes he should get the same if not more than Papelbon.
Edictor27
Kimbrel is Arb eligible after the 2014 season. If he has a healthy 2014 and pulls another All star season I can see him getting papelbon money or close to it
Matt Talbert
The problem is you worry about this is yes he is a bit scary, its just those mannerisms early on in his setup etc. His delivery is very fluid and easy. You know Billy Wagner had a pretty easy delivery from the left side and he had all sorts of problems, but maybe Craig will be an exception. Shoot even Mariano had a little bit of problem from time to time.
Christopher A. Otto
Oh I think WE are all correct to have misgivings about giving big money to Kimbrel. But the point, I think, is that some team out there will salivate at the chance to give him 4/56, and one team is all it takes
MB923
Rivera had 5 saves in 2012, not 10.
charliewilmoth
Ah, you’re right. Thanks.
bjsguess
Looks like there is approximately a 30% turnover rate year to year with closers. This seems high but I’m not sure that it is disproportionately high compared to other positions. For example, if you tracked #3 starters – I wonder how many #3’s in 2012 were still considered to be #3’s in 2013 or in 2014. My guess is that at least 30% saw their stock slip enough to where they were moved to the backend of the rotation/swing-men or to the bullpen.
The reality is that all positions experience shuffling due to injury/performance. And while closers are high profile, even the elite level aren’t paid much. $10M for a starting pitcher gets you guys with injury and poor consistency. $10M for a closer gets you someone with a great track record who should be highly reliable. Personally, I would rather have a shut down performer for 70 innings vs a guy that sports a 5 ERA over a 150 innings.
Mikenmn
Not the most exciting group (with respects to Nathan, who is quite good) but maybe we are seeing a fundamental reordering of the market.
LoneTXRanger
I’m a Rangers can, but I’m glad Nathan is gone. He has aged and his velocity as dropped. It was his time to move on, just wished we would have traded him while closers were in high demand this past season. Rangers could have filled some holes we knew we had coming this offseason.
Gary Kimbrel
I wonder what that means for Toronto’s bullpen surplus. I’m sure they want to use it to address their needs if they can. Janssen makes the most at 4M, but only being under contract for 1 year, I’m not sure what his value is.
liberalconservative
Brandon League contract didn’t make sense at the time of the signing. He was never a great closer and lost his starting job. If he was available now he would be looking at a minor league deal.
JAMCTribe
Myers was signed as a starter not a closer and therefore should not be included on this list.
charliewilmoth
I noted that in the post. I just included everyone who got ten-plus saves, regardless of what role they were signed for.
Mike89
The Papelbon contract is actually pretty amazing. Sure it was a lot of money, but you can’t quantify his value with those cyber mattricks. He has a lot of veteran presents and is great in the clubhouse. He got over 50 saves in two years. Tell me, who else has done that and kept a sub-3.00 era. He’s also only had 2 IBB and ZERO balks. Clearly he has control of the 9th inning and knows what to do. Can you really put a monetary value on that???
Matt Talbert
He has a lot of veteran presence and sabermetrics. Mike, bro reread your entry :D. Only trying to help ya out. I wonder if Paps is the Santa of his clubhouse? XD
Mike89
I don’t understand what you’re talking about.
leowalter
Are ” veteran presents ” different than Santa’s presents ?
Ryan Hi.
Quote:
“No, I would like to stay here. But if I’m going to have to put up with this year after year, then no, I don’t want to be here. Why would you? Why would anybody?”
What price exactly would you put on that type of “veteran presence”.
Since_77
I wonder if Balfour will still get a deal similar to what Joaquin Benoit got?
tigersfan33
If there’s something wrong with his physical, I doubt it.
Matt Talbert
A lot of times, we fans give these writers a lot of flack, but this article (Imo) was one of the best I’ve EVER read on MLBTR. It had a very solid analysis (well thought out and presented) with specific data to back their claim. Well done.
charliewilmoth
Thanks!
Guest 3862
I agree…one of the best articles I’ve ever written. I’m continually impressed with this website and the quality of the articles that its contributors provide.
Lee Foo Young
Matt….Charlie does Bucs Dugout (I am a Pirate fan). We’re used to it. Just another great CW article….ho hum.
🙂 🙂 🙂
Denny Kissane
The emergence of Jones doesn’t mean the White Sox will be off the closer market. Jones is going into his 3rd year, 27 years old, and still has no secondary pitch. His fastball is ;good but he’s not consistent enough to get the nod as the closer. It’s more likely Matt Lindstrom gets the job if they’re going internally. I just don’t see Don Cooper and Co wanting Jones to close.
Mark P
excellently written – the article that everyone has kind of observed, but it needed to be explained to that level of detail. Nice work.
Lee Foo Young
Charlie…As a Pirate fan, I love it when other teams overpay for relievers and closers.