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By charliewilmoth | at
Email a copy of 'Nelson Cruz, Kendrys Morales And The Market' to a friend
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jeffm
Will either of these guys even play MLB in 2014? Might be forced to play overseas. Would that take draft pick compensation off the table if they don’t sign with a big league club until 2015?
LazerTown
They will certainly play. But maybe less than the qo.
jeffm
Would probably have to be significantly less, but doing that gets tricky.
livingpaint
Morales is repped by Boras, so he’ll find a decent paycheck somewhere. Probably at or more than the QO the Mariners offered.
pft2
All they have to do is be patient and wait till June 15 when they don’t cost a pick. Teams out of the running now will be all over them then. In the off season, everyone has their rosy projections that Player X will have a breakout season or rebound, and by June 15 they realize Player X is no better than he was last year. So they lose a couple of months salary, but can recover that over a 3 year deal. Better than panicking and signing for 1/2 what you are worth with the only reward for a good season is you are stuck dealing with another QO, or worse, you get injured and play for even fewer peanuts in 2015
STEVE KOENIGSBERG
I have heard this June 15 argument before and I don’t buy it. Is there going to be a contending team that will want to sign these guys 2 1/2 months into the season when they haven’t aeen major league pitching since the end of 2013. If teams are looking for a quick fix, this doesn’t aeem like the best plan. In spring training, pitchers are almost always ahead of hitters….even at the end of March. These guys would theoretically need a month in the minors getting used to live pitching. Now you would be 3 1/2 months into the season. I don’t see teams coughing up big bucks foe this. Maybe at a discount?
Jeff Weissbuch
Agree not sure I would sign a guy like this in June unless I had a huge injury.
bjsguess
Why don’t you buy it? Several players have done this (albeit for different reasons). If Cruz and Morales are healthy I could see a team offering them $7/$8M (with a no QO clause) to play the last half of the season on a 1 year deal. They could then re-enter the market without the draft pick issues.
As a team I would rather take this approach. And as a player I would also find this preferable to many of the scenarios being bandied about. The only losers here are the Rangers/Mariners since their compensation would be removed.
oz10 2
Several pitchers have but I have not heard of an offensive player doing it effectively. Please enlighten us to whom these several players are that you refer to.
STEVE KOENIGSBERG
This approach works for pitchers much better than it would for position players. I cannot think of any difference-making position player that has signed mid-season in recent memory.
At this point, I am sure that both Cruz and Morales wished that they’d accepted the qualifying offers; and both the Mariners and Rangers are both a little glad that neither player took them up on their offers.
Shane1885
If they sign with somebody after the Draft in June then they won’t be tide up to the compensation pick. It is interesting you said about them playing overseas, that might be their best option at this point.
gammaraze
Really? Masahiro Tanaka was looking at a RECORD payday of HALF of the Qualifying Offer. How would playing over seas help these guys in ANY way??
Shane1885
Because obviously nobody wants to pay these guys what their asking for one and also dont wanna give up a Draft pick. These guys are one dimensional players and teams out here don’t value them as much as say a team in Japan and might offer them more money.
LazerTown
And I said both were nuts to turn down the offer. Neither of them is an elite bat but they want to get more than $14M each over multiple years.
Tony Matias
Congrats Morales for not taking the M’s QO and all the “best” in finding someone who’ll pay it.
LazerTown
Yea, Mariners should be thrilled. They got Hart, so they got a draft pick, the better player, and even saved money.
Jeff Weissbuch
No draft pick yet
bjsguess
And certainly no guarantee that Hart is the better player.
Tony Matias
No sympathy for Morales here.
LazerTown
Hey, I’d rather have Hart regardless. Morales is a mediocre DH, and wants to be paid more than David Ortiz?!?
Kyle B.
Maybe he just got bad advice from his agent, Boras.
jazznbluz
That would be a first (he said sarcastically).
Shane1885
He can thank Scott Boras for being greedy lol
Scott Goin
Boras will never accept a QO because it would hurt his reputation as a hard-ass in negotiations. Mid-level free agents like Morales get hurt because he’s not giving them the best representation they can get.
I’d say it was smart of the Mariners to offer the QO, but knowing them, they may actually think he’s worth $14 million a year.
Paul Shailor
Honestly how did they not see this coming? I mean really turning down 14 mil for one year and if they are lucky they will end with 2/20?!?!
Edgar4evar
It makes me wonder how the mind of the FA works. It should be obvious that $14 million right now with the chance for a new deal next year is a really good deal for a player like this. I guess to be good at baseball you have to believe you are amazing and worth oh-so-much more than that.
pft2
If they blow out a knee in 2014 then 2/20 is the better deal. Players take longer deals at less annual salary for security all the time. Why do you think so many players sign team friendly extensions?. Teams are willing to pay more per year for shorter years for the same reason, risk management.
In the end, 10 million a year vs 14 million is not going to change these guys way of life. They are millionaires already and set for life. It just means less money paid to Uncle Sam and left for the kids. Every decision has some risk. Win some, lose some.
bjsguess
Cruz was picked, on this site, to sign for 3/$39. That is significantly better than 1/$14M. I don’t think it was the worst advice to have him turn down the QO.
At the time, I probably would have offered the QO but prayed that he declined. I’m not a fan of Morales or Cruz at this point in their career. However, I could see other teams valuing them more than 1/$14M.
Edgar4evar
I think both of these guys, but especially Morales due to his defensive limitations, are going to sign late in the offseason for small contracts of short duration. I put Morales at 2/15 and Cruz at 2/20 or so. Alternatively either could sign a one-year, incentive-laden deal to establish value. Likely suitors are those that won’t lose a first-rounder, either due to a protected pick, or having already lost theirs due to other signings.
And I’m really glad the M’s have stayed away from them. I want Morales to sign elsewhere so the M’s get the pick. I’m really afraid Cruz would play outfield, badly, every day. And that his bat would suffer at Safeco. The deal we gave Hart is perfect, and there is a lot of upside there for the money.
nighthawk180
The mariners actually wont get the pick they will lose it for signing Cano. As it stands currently they will lose their 2nd rounder for Cano. How it works since their first round pick is protected is that the next highest pick goes. If Morales signs elsewhere the comp pick for him goes as well.
Jeff Weissbuch
Why is that I thought they would get a pick for Morales why do they lose 2 picks.
Scott Goin
This sounded confusing to me as well. While the Mariners are going to lose the Morales pick because of Cano, they’ll actually get back their 2nd round pick.
So Morales signing with someone else before the draft gives the Mariners an extra draft pick. It’s just a 2nd round pick instead of a compensatory round pick.
John Kreese
Cruz does nothing for me but I’d love to see the M’s re-up with Morales. Of course that would have to mean that one of Hart or LoMo are capable enough to play the outfield & Smoak gets traded. A 2-3-4-5-6 of Seager, Cano, Morales, Hart, LoMo is pretty solid.
TheRealRyan 2
The problem with that is 2 of Morales, Hart and LoMo have to also play the field. That means at least one of them will be giving back most, if not all, of the value you receive from their bat because of their defensive limitations. It also means Smoak is out of a job.
Scott Goin
I can’t see Boras letting Morales accept 2/15 when he just refused a 14 mill QO.
Also, If I were a GM, I’d hate to give up a draft pick to get a guy like Morales or Cruz for just 1 year.
I think in order to maximize the value of the draft pick you’re giving up, you need a cheap, 3-year deal. Something like 3/24 for Morales or 3/30 for Cruz.
scs
This has probably been addressed, but is there anything stopping the Rangers from offering Cruz something like 1-year, $10 million, with the stipulation that they will not make him a qualifying offer at the end of the season? Is this even allowed?
gammaraze
The reality of the situation is that if Cruz is good enough to deserve a Qualifying Offer next year, either he accepts it, or he hopes that another team is willing to pay him more AND give up a draft pick. It is not the Rangers fault for offering him $14.1M; it is his own for declining it. It is entirely possible that he believes that he is worth more than people are willing to pay him. It happens a lot in life.
It would be hard to believe that a team would be willing to give him a multi-year deal worth more annually than the QO if the team that signs him to a 1 year deal doesn’t even offer him a QO…
pft2
Its not allowed. At least, they can’t put it in the contract, and most players won’t take a gentlemans agreement.
bdiddy7
Hearing 35MM for Lincecum as too much is so weird. Then I remember that it’s 2014 and how far he’s fallen the past 2 years.
pft2
With offense in decline and the poor performance some teams got offensively at DH and in RF its hard to fathom. Cruz of course has PED concerns and his H-A splits over the past years may give teams pause (he hit well on the read last year though).
I think teams missing out on Tanaka or other free agent pitchers will spend the money on offensive holes. Tanaka pushed things back a month for a few players
Trock
I completely agree with that. I feel as though a good amount of teams will post the 20 mil to negotiate. If they think there team has any sort of remote chance to signing him, they are going to wait on other holes before finding out who he ends up with. As soon as he is signed, you will see guys like Garza, Jiminez, Morales, Cruz signed by the teams who lose out on Tanaka.
famous_amazing_guy
Great analysis and summary.
This site is the gold standard for understanding ballplayers as assets, and baseball as a business.
Keep up the good work.
charliewilmoth
Thanks!
Steven Russell
I’d be thrilled if Texas was able to bring back Cruz for one year as a DH. Although, if he’s doing the one year thing, he may want to go play outfield as well somewhere to try to get his value up and to remain an everyday position player for free agency and our outfield in Texas is filled. I’d be very happy keeping his power in the lineup and not having to worry about his defense though.
There is the awkward problem of Choo having his #17 though…
GD
lol. I totally spaced out the #17 thing.
GD
He’s not going back to Texas
gammaraze
When you’re off PEDs, your numbers drop… even on your jersey: Cruz can choose any number lower than 17
Chet Steadman
Choo
Andrus
Fielder
Belt
Cruz
Rios
Moreland
Soto
Martin
: )
gammaraze
No. None of Moreland/Fielder/Cruz can play 2B. If the Rangers sign Cruz, Moreland WILL be gone.
Chet Steadman
lol i forgot Profar : / too much coffee
Steven Russell
Yes, I think they would trade him if Cruz returned, most likely for prospects but I suppose they could look at pitching as well. I can’t see them using him as just a bench player, even though that would be an awesome luxury because he could do OF, 1B and DH. Although, I kind of like the idea of having a good defensive first baseman to relieve Prince or play a good chunk of it if Prince didn’t mind but I think he would mind. He seems dead set on playing everyday at first base, not knocking that or anything but it would help our defense.
Steven Russell
Yep it would be mighty fine! Although Profar would definitely be in there somewhere so Moreland would either be traded or provide relief for guys like Cruz, Fielder, Choo and Rios.
Stevil
This is a really well laid-out article by Charlie. Every angle and point was made clearly. Couldn’t agree more.
It will be real interesting to see what happens with Cruz and Morales. I wouldn’t be surprised at all if both end up with one year deals or remain on the market til after the draft.
Djones2109
Remember some teams have protected picks and can sign these guys and not lose a pick
bjsguess
They won’t lose their FIRST ROUND pick. If they are protected the team would lose their SECOND ROUND pick. Obviously, this pick is much less important but it still carries a fair amount of value.
daveineg
If I’m Morales, I sign with an indy league team that will play him at 1B (to show he can play there), then wait for the draft to pass when teams won’t lose a pick and will be willing pay market level price. He’d likely make the same for 2/3 of a season than he would for a full season at a heavy discount and get a decent 2nd and 3rd year.
Bottom line is that some players are getting bad advice from their ego driven agents.
Trock
I am unsure how it works, but if they sign a player after the draft, can they lock him up for a multiyear deal at that point? Or can it only be for the rest of that season?
Christopher J. Mills
He’s a FA, so there’s no restriction. He just no longer has a pick attached to him. Morales will be signed though. A team will wait as long as they can to drive his price down, then give up the pick like the Brewers did with Lohse last season.
Trock
Thats what I thought. Thanks for clarifying!
westcoastwhitesox
Awesome post; very well written!
Dan Bowen
Whoever supplies Ortiz with his steroids probably “thought Ortiz would age so well.”