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By Mark Polishuk | at
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John Henry's Hammer
There’s a sucker born every day and it just so happens today is the Dodger’s day … Just because Arruebarruena is from Cuba doesn’t mean he’s great … He has slow feet and a slow bat.
AmericanMovieFan
Homer Bailey: 5 years: $50MM w/ $2.5MM buyout on $16MM option
2014: $5MM
2015: $8MM
2016: $10MM
2017: $12MM
2018: $15MM
2019: $16MM option w/$2.5MM buyout.
Effectively giving him a 4 year/$47.5MM FA contract that is potentially worth 5 years/$61MM. I honestly don’t see him doing much better on the FA market, but it’d still be fair.
LazerTown
Wow.
He is going to do way better than that. His arb middle ground is $10.3M, so that is effectively a $40M/4 year of free agency. 2nd year in row 200 ip, and put in a 3.49 era this year.
DarthMurph
That wouldn’t be fair at all. He’s asking for 400k less than what you have projected as his 3rd year of FA salary.
Bailey will ask for double that on the open market. His 2014 performance will determine whether or not that’s taken seriously, but unless he needs Tommy John or puts up truly terrible numbers, he’ll get much more than that on the market anyway. It doesn’t matter whether or not you think he’s worth it, that’s what the market commands.
slasher016 2
If you cut off your first year, and go 8/10/12/15 you’re closer, but still light. He’s probably looking a Garza like extension at worst (4 yr $52M). He’s probably asking for $75M / 5.
Gothapotamus
Bailey has shown consistency over the past two seasons, but to the tune of 5.7 WAR combined in 2012 / 2013. That kind of production doesn’t get $100M contracts.
Maybe he’d get $100M if he’d post 5.7 WAR this season, but I understand why he and the Reds are so far apart in arbitration and in the discussion of an extension.
DarthMurph
I could see him matching Lackey’s Red Sox contract/Jered Weaver’s extension. The price of FA pitching is expensive and if he puts in another good season, he carry far less risk than any of this year’s crop.
GameMusic3
Kemp, Ethier, and Beckett deserve higher rankings than Gonzalez or Billingsley.
[Please leave Ned]
AsHeR
Hypothetically speaking, lets just say Shark goes 10-3 with a 3.4ERA in the first half of the year. What do you think would happen? Give him the contract he seems to be living up to? Or trade him and get the maximum value? Thoughts?
raymondrobertkoenig
The Cubs are offering 11 million per, Samardzija wants 18. The difference is too much, he’ll be traded.
twins33
If Bailey becomes a FA, I’d want the Twins to go after him. Hopefully he could be obtained for something like 5/60 or 5/75 range.
Jay King
Here is the deal I feel is realistic for both the Reds and for Bailey to take.
2014 $ 10.5 MM
2015 $ 11.5 MM
2016 $ 15 MM
2017 $ 16.5 MM
2018 $ 17 MM
2019 $ 15 MM Team option 3 MM buyout
Total 5 years 70.5 million or
6 years 85.5 MM
Reds get a little bit of a discount the first 2 years and then it jumps up to be what Homer is worth. The lower option year is to help out the Reds a little on salary relief.
Honestly as a former college pitcher who never went into baseball after school I would have been happy with 10 million a season if I had decent stats. If I had gotten more I would end up donating some to good causes and helping our friends in need.
slasher016 2
Pretty reasonable, though I think the Reds will front load a deal (if they get it done.) The Reds do have a little money to spend this year (they were still considering Choo and never spent any money.) Perhaps like this:
5 years / 70M ($5M signing, $2M buyout)
2014: $10M (+$5M signing)
2015: $12M
2016: $12M
2017: $14M
2018: $15M
2019: $15M option ($2M buyout)
Joe Orsatti
I would have liked to see Ayala in Philly.
Smrtbusnisman04
$12 million? And u guys say the Pirates aren’t willing to spend money. I guess A.J. s wife was really giving him a hard time thus how come he had to move even closer to his family.