Email a copy of 'Free Agent Stock Watch: Closers' to a friend
Loading ...
By Jeff Todd | at
Email a copy of 'Free Agent Stock Watch: Closers' to a friend
MLB Trade Rumors is not affiliated with Major League Baseball, MLB or MLB.com
hide arrows scroll to top
Seamaholic
If I’m one of those guys on the open market, I sign as soon as someone offers a decent number. Definitely better to get something done early. Which means smart teams will grab the best of the bunch with bargain offers in October.
MB923
Hey what happened happened, but Robertson’s ERA is as high as it is because of 1 bad performance. June 1st against the Twins, he allowed 5 ER in 0.2 IP.
Take away that 1 bad outing and his ERA is 2.09. But hey as I said, what happens happens. Just pointing out that it was pretty much due to 1 bad game. Only 3 blown saves all year, including that game. He’s having a fine season even with that high ERA
Eric 23
That 2.09 looks good against everyone else, but then again, everyone else probably has a bad outing that would lower their ERA as well.
MB923
Oh very true. Won’t argue that. But his ERA drops nearly a run. But as I said, what happens happens. He got hosed that game.
Jeff Todd
Yeah, as I pointed out, his peripherals and marks from ERA estimators all remain excellent. It’s just one of those data points that can play a role in things. And hey, Kimbrel hasn’t allowed more than 2 ER in a game this year.
Ultimately, it’s more just a piece of the idea that Robertson has pretty much held his value — which, for a reliever, was already quite high. As I note, I think he’s in a great position now. Given his age, he’s the obvious prize of the market and is probably the only guy who could spark some kind of multi-year bidding war.
Karkat
ERA is a fairly pointless stat when talking about relievers anyway. The fangraphs notion of SD/MD is a lot better.
MB923
Never heard of SD/MD
Karkat
Check it out if you get the chance. It uses WPA to create a uniform stat that has the sense of “saves/blown saves” for relievers of all sorts. Set up to exist on a similar scale (like how FIP runs alongside ERA) and it’s a pretty decent way to look at RP performance (beyond the typical ratio stuff).
Jeff Todd
At least a closer usually starts and finishes his own innings, though, so ERA is more relevant. (Compare to a situational lefty who gets bombed but doesn’t give up that many earned runs b/c he is always allowing inherited runners to score.)
Shutdowns and meltdowns may be a good value assessor looking back at times, with appropriate context, but I’m not sure they are particularly predictive. (Not that ERA is the best tool for that, either.)
Ted
I wonder if there’s any chance Janssen could end up as a 5th starter for somebody next year. He wasn’t great as a starter early in his career, but he’s always been a non-traditional reliever with 4-5 different pitches. He’s a smart guy, reliable, with pretty good command. I’m sure he’ll be signed as a reliever, but I think somebody might consider the conversion at least.
Karkat
Sox not trading Koji when they traded Miller was a huge deadline mistake. They got a decent return for Miller, probably could’ve done just as well or better for Koji, who was still pitching strong. Now he’s tanking pretty hard :C
Eric MacLaurin
Robertson is better than anyone in last years crop and it isn’t that close. He’s also so much better than anyone else it will only take two teams who feel that close to get a bidding war.
Jeff Todd
At risk of reading this comment defensively, I don’t believe I implied otherwise. I agree with you entirely — his age is a big separator.
He’ll be asking for four years (though may ultimately end up with three). If Joe Smith and Boone Logan can get $5MM+ AAV over three years and Joe Nathan can get $10MM AAV over two years, have to think Robertson (standing out as the best available option) will get at least three years and crack an eight-figure annual guarantee.
Of course, the QO would potentially throw a wrench in there, but might not dissuade bidders depending on circumstances (if multiple interested teams would not need to give up a high pick, for example).
Eric MacLaurin
If your last few paragraphs were all referring to Non Robertson relievers than I misunderstood. I read this…
“Remember, last year’s upper-middle closer market settled in the range of two years and between $9.5MM and $15.5MM. And that was for pitchers like Edward Mujica, Grant Balfour, Fernando Rodney, and Joaquin Benoit who had much stronger cases than this year’s crop.”
As including Robertson.
I think the Yankees give him the QO but he still leaves for 3-36 or thereabouts. Sadly, I think the yanks would like to keep him and would be a better team but they can’t afford him with so much dead money next year & the need to sign Lester.
Yanks might match 3-36 but they won’t offer it and the team that does make the offer won’t allow him to shop it back to the Yankees.
Jeff Todd
Gotcha … yeah, I was using those comps for the other guys.
Key bits:
“It is worth wondering whether any of the other above-listed players will be able to command a significant, multi-year guarantee.”
“Remember, last year’s upper-middle closer market …”
Robertson’s definitely top of the market, and (as you said) a higher-dollar FA than any of last year’s “closers.”
I could see 3/36, if the demand is there — which I think is a big question still with teams like the Tigers and Angels having guys in place. (Of course, they could certainly use Robertson as a setup guy for a year, or just install him directly into the 9th.) Think there’s a solid chance he returns to NY, especially if he’s given the QO.
Sean Feeney
Grilli not in a setup roll. Joe Smith 8th inning Jepsen 7th. Grilli mostly works in the 6th
Jeff Todd
It isn’t really a precise delineation, but I’m comfortable with it. He’s got 8 holds, generally pitches in games the team expects or hopes to win (team has gone 22-10 in games he’s appeared in), and has taken the hill earlier than the 7th inning in only 6/31 appearances.
EDIT to add: more of those 6th inning appearances have been recent, which is perhaps what you are basing his role on. The ultimate point is just that he hasn’t been put out to pasture in mop-up duty.
M.Kit
I don’t think Boston can/should rely on Uehara next year. Would be interesting if they made a run at Robertson