Email a copy of 'Free Agent Profile: Adam LaRoche' to a friend
Loading ...
By Steve Adams | at
Email a copy of 'Free Agent Profile: Adam LaRoche' to a friend
MLB Trade Rumors is not affiliated with Major League Baseball, MLB or MLB.com
hide arrows scroll to top
DarthMurph
Power is an increasingly scarce commodity, but who’s going to give him 15 million? His numbers are declining, he’s old, and he can’t hit lefties.
Drazthegr8
I’m guessing 1yr, $8-10MM. Who besides Milwaukee would want him? He can’t hit lefties and his defense is declining (besides being excellent at scooping balls). Yes, he’s a streaky HR hitter, but he also goes ice cold for stretches.
Dock_Elvis
How’s about the the White Sox Dh-ing him? Guessing he’ll have better options in the NL
Drazthegr8
He’s a decent 1B and I think a fair amount of value is stored in his fielding. Frankly, he should be a platooned 1B IMO.
Dock_Elvis
That’s true. I’m just looking at the White Sox need for a lefty power bat. There’s been much speculation about Markakis, Panda, etc… but none really possess the power I’d assume they’d be looking for. They have a lot of money off the books and a bullpen to deal with as well.
Yohan
While I agree 2/30 is steep there will be interested teams.
bdpecore
I’m not sure there will be a big market for his services. The Marlins spent just shy of $46M last season. i can’t see them spending $15-20M on Jones and LaRoche. Also the Pirate could look into moving Alvarez to 1B and spending the savings on a starter. This leaves the Brewers and AL teams who will want him to DH part of the time.
Yohan
He does have his concerns like below average defense, small market for him, age, etc…So he seems like there could be a large dolllar range for him. Still he can’t do much worse than 2/18 and realistically 2/24.
UK Tiger
Are his numbers really declining though?
His 2014 was better than 2013 in AVG, OBP, OPS, OPS+, WAR, pretty much everything.
I agree with your other points, but, you could conversely say, hes not that old as far as longtime proven hitters go, he’ll get you 25 homers, he’ll get on base at a very good clip and hes not too much worse than average defensively.
I could see someone giving him 2 yrs around $25m, maybe even two and an option Rev, he definitely helps a no. of teams with a weakness at first base.
Drazthegr8
In 2013, his medication was screwed up, which he blamed his bad season on…
I watched ALR every day this year – he can be great, but he can also be terrible. Extremely streaky. Look at his July numbers – wretched. In April, he was great.
Defensively, he’s great at any ball hit close to him, but he has no lateral movement.
UK Tiger
Good points Draz, but over the course of a six month season you could say the majority of ballplayers will go on streaks one way or the other, thats why we view the stats when the season is done and a .450 batting average in April means little.
He absolutely does have his limitations but i would suggest still has enough about him to help a needy ball club at first bag.
Dock_Elvis
I haven’t looked at his recent numbers, but he used to have extreme 1st/2nd half splits. He was the guy that many a sneaky fantasy owner would pick up at the break and ride out that wave to end the season.
Drazthegr8
Was mostly the opposite this year.
oh Hal
“He’s old” is a positive to Doug Melvin for one. Hits lots of HRs – now he’s entering a semi-hypnotic state. The signing press conference will have a subtle reference to how he negotiated hard to get him to 2 expensive years and abundant cliches to leadership and fuzzy veteran positives.
GrilledCheese39
I don’t see how he could get that contract…I’d predict maybe a few million more than Morneau’s contract with the Rockies last offseason.
GrilledCheese39
I’m hoping the Pirates can maybe sign him. Have him as the stop-gap for Josh Bell in the future. Have the lineup be: Harrison/Polanco/McCutchen/LaRoche/Martin/Walker/Marte/SS
Flash Gordon
I really don’t think the Pirates would or should sign him. He would be awfully redundant (and expensive) considering Ike Davis and Pedro Alvarez (both lefties) each have two arbitration years left.
Dock_Elvis
Better than average chance the Bucs deal Alvarez.
Justin 22
He will get more but I think he’s only worth about a 2 year, $12 mm deal
bdpecore
A left handed hitter who hit 26 HR with 92 RBI and had an OPS of .817 last season is worth more than $6M AAV.
Rally Weimaraner
Agreed but a 35 year old that has average 1.2 fWAR per season for the last decade is not worth 15 M AAV either.
bdpecore
I think he is only worth around $8-9M but will get $11-12M based on the weak market.
Justin 22
If you’re using home runs to judge a player then something is wrong. He had a measly 1.6 fWAR this season, good for 18th among qualified first basemen. Among all batters, he’d rank 162nd. I know there is a market deficiency, hence why I wrote he would make more. Quantitatively though, he is only worth about $5 million a season.
The contract Lyle Overbay signed in 2010 would be the closest comparison to LaRoche in terms of a weighted fWAR contribution and age.
bdpecore
Using WAR (1.0 = $6M), LaRoche had a value of $9.6M last season. So $8-9M in a market where power is scarce is a reasonable AAV even for a declining player.
Justin 22
Not sure what you did there with the (1.0 = $^M) but my free agent calculator weights an impending free agents three year contributions to their team and factors in their age. It then regresses that number against previous player contracts so as to see what the player should make based on past contracts.
bdpecore
Based on what Morneau and Loney got last offseason, I can’t see any team offering him more than 2 years/$22M with a team option ($2M buyout). $15M AAV seems a bit high for a 35 year old first baseman.
Seamaholic
Yeah but both Morneau and Loney were bargains.
bdpecore
Loney had the Brewers, Pirates and Rays all bidding for his services before he signed with Tampa Bay. I know he gave the Rays a discount but I can’t see him turning away more than $1-2M AAV.
ugotrpk3113
Bargins in retrospect. Both were risks, hence the contracts.
Rally Weimaraner
I know power is hard to come by but 15 MM AAV for a 35 year old guy who has average 1.2 fWAR per season over his career seems really steep to me.
docmilo5
Can the Nats afford to offer him a QO if they really want to move Zimmerman to 1B? They have to buy him out at $2M first don’t they? Then what if he accepts the QO? That $17M+ or am I looking at it wrong? Pay the $2M and move on is my guess.
Drazthegr8
Nats aren’t offering him a QO. He’d accept it.
Melvin Mendoza, Jr.
I remember when the Braves more or less ran him out of town after he didn’t hustle and got beaten to the bag by Nick Johnson on a routine dribbler, got benched and subsequently booed at every game I remember him playing with us after that, falling out of favor and eventually getting traded.
CleaverGreene
I remember that play and my first thought was, I never want this showboat on my team.
Yohan
I saw the first sentence of the Personal section and right away thought the Brewers would be a perfect fit. His numbers would start declining in September though.
Vandals Took The Handles
He could become this years Drew-Morales for a different reason…..
I’m not sure what team needs him. Red_Line is right, the White Sox might come closest.
Dock_Elvis
White Sox have a protected pick. I’d almost think that the Nats would be leary of offering the qo if they thought he would accept…sounds like he’d like to stay in Washington. I haven’t seen his breakdown recently. He used to be a dead red second half hitter.
Dock_Elvis
He’s never ended up in KC…even though he seems to fit their profile. It’d be more likely if he hit righty to replace Butler. Grew up in Ft. Scott, KS…Christian… Seems like a Dayton Moore type… ex Brave.
bjsguess
It’s hard to predict how irrational clubs may be in the off-season. However, LaRoche is a guy who is worth $8-$9M this year. Generally players in LaRoche’s stage of his career aren’t going to get better. And his 2014 numbers appear to be in line with what he has put up since 2006 (aberration in 2012 aside). He has been remarkably consistent, fluctuating between 0.5fWAR and 2.1fWAR (when healthy). With LaRoche you have a pretty narrow band for his expected performance. I would put a guestimate around 1.0 – 1.5 WAR in 2015, 0.75 – 1.25 in 2016, and 0.5 – 1.0 WAR in 2017.
With no QO to deal with, a reasonable contract IMO would be a 2/$16-$18M deal. A bargain hunter may be able to land him for 1/$7M. Teams get into a bidding war I can see 3/$30M. I really struggle to see anyone paying close to the $15M AAV suggested in this post.
Keith 4
So he’s been battling ADD since high school yet he’s only been taking Ritalin for the past 8 years. Only since he’s been a professional ball player. Hmm sounds a bit odd. It’s funny how many baseball players are “battling add”. Kind of like the ball players like arod who used to get exemptions cuz they were “battling low testosterone”.
Dock_Elvis
He’s taken Ritalin for the past 8_years, but that doesn’t necessarily mean he wasnt taking other medication prior, or dealing with it in another way. Yes…the % of mlb players with add and adhd appears high, but the center for disease control reports that 10% of 10-17 year olds have a diagnosis. This would have been when LaRoche was diagnosed.
Melvin Mendoza, Jr.
I thought the same thing. I don’t know the guy personally but he really seems to be one of those people that uses it as a crutch and blames every mistake he makes on it.
daveineg
I just don’t see the market being all that strong for LaRoche either. Of the team’s with needs, the Brewers have the most glaring and he would seem to be the best fit. But the other teams mentioned as possibly being in the bidding aren’t big spenders and have alternatives. I see a deal more in the 2 year $24 million range. No way he gets $15 million per year nor should he at age 35.
baseball lifer
TEXAS??? Prince moving to DH…
bdpecore
Then where do you play Mitch Moreland?
Melvin Mendoza, Jr.
60-day DL
baseball lifer
Unfortunately, BJ Mendoza is probably correct. Until Moreland proves he can play an entire season, I don’t know how you can plan on him doing so.
53% games played last 4 years…
bdpecore
He already had surgery on his ankle and should be fully recovered by spring training. Are you implying the Rangers should simply release him? Otherwise they will need to find a spot for him on their 25 man roster. You can not assume he will be on the DL all of next season based on his injury plagued past.
baseball lifer
This is the 3rd off-season in a row which Moreland has had some sort of surgery. He has been ready come ST each time. But Morlenad has still failed to stay healthy. So you can not assume he will be the everyday DH neither. It would be foolish to think so, given his track record.
bdpecore
I understand what you are saying but my point was the Rangers either need to include him in their 2015 plans or not. Because if healthy, he will be on the 25 man roster. Basically you cannot guarantee a player with injury concerns will spend the majority of an upcoming season on the DL.
baseball lifer
Yes, Moreland should be included in the 25 man roster. But that doesnt change the fact that this team’s depth needs to be improved. If that mean Moreland is the backup 1B, backup DH, and a backup COF, fine. But last year, 25 man roster spots should not of been given out like free money… Arencibia, Robertson, Sardinas, Murphy, Gimenez, Rua, Adduci, Smolinski, Telis, Wilson, Pena, Kouzmanoff, Carp, Snyder, Choice, and Rodriguez all had 25 man roster spots at one point in the year. That is 16 players and doesn’t even take in consideration Odor and Chirinos who ended up starting most of the season when they should of been at AAA all year (along with a few others listed above). Nor, does that even dig down into the pitching staff – who had there fair share of DL stints and call-ups too. So the overall lack of quality depth goes much deeper than just the 25 man roster. Injuries last year will also have major implications to the 40 man roster and the Rule 5 Draft. This roster is now a mess (47 players on the 40 man roster as of today), and could negatively impact the organization for the next 2-3 years depending on the R5D.
Boots Worthington
seems like Milwaukee would be an ideal fit.
CoryMoore
Im guessing the Padres will sign him 2 years 25 mill