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By Steve Adams | at
Email a copy of 'Free Agent Profile: Nick Markakis' to a friend
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Vandals Took The Handles
This is a guy perfect for the Giants – the Al Davis Raiders of MLB.
Past his prime. Knows how to play the game. Can help a team win. A solid veteran ballplayer.
Just Win, Baby!
Melvin Mendoza, Jr.
That’s not Al Davis at all though. Al Davis would say:
“Nick Markakis is a great playa. I timed his 40 myself. A great playa….”
Then sign him to a 25 year $600m contract.
Unassisted Triple Play
25/600 seems like a bargain.
Vandals Took The Handles
Al lost it when he got older. But I’d check his record out before he had problems with Marcus Allen – which started the downslide.
The Giants are on the verge of going to their 3rd WS in 5 years. That is amazing in MLB’s “parity” climate. They don’t do it with big stars that put up sizzling numbers, they do it with team leaders and solid players that play fundamental baseball, contributing top winning. I read a Cardinal player last year that was traded to them say he had never played in an organization like that. All he had to do was his job. Didn’t have to carry the team, and no one else did. Markakis would fit well with the Giants….or Cardinals…or Royals….or back to the Orioles.
Real_American78
then cut him and force him to sue the team for the salary he’s owed.
Unassisted Triple Play
I’ve always like Nick Markakis. He is tough as nails at the dish. I know this is a long shot, but I would love for my Minnesota Twins to sign this guy. He gives Maueresque at-bats where having two strikes is no big deal and his veteren presence will be welcome on a team of young up and comers.
Vandals Took The Handles
He would fit well there. But there are 2 problems…
1. As Steve has pointed out in his chats, the Twins badly need a strong defensive CF – or at least until Bryan Buxton is ready to play at the ML level.
2. They may have exhausted the budget to bring in veteran guidance by overpaying Hughes and Nolasco, as well as extending Kurt Suzuki.
Erik Trenouth
Overpaying Phil Hughes? He was arguably the best FA signing last offseason
Vandals Took The Handles
And at the time he was over payed.
Erik Trenouth
$8m a year for Hughes even before this year happened wasn’t an overpayment. It wasn’t a great deal, but it wasn’t an overpayment
Vandals Took The Handles
OK.
But with pitchers in demand, who else was offering him that sort of money?
Erik Trenouth
Nobody at the time he signed. Everyone was waiting for the shoe to drop on Tanaka.
paqza
And it looks excellent now.
Metsfan93
No, he wasn’t. Everybody understood that asking an under-30 Phil Hughes to produce 24 MM in value over a three-year term where his home ballpark wasn’t Yankee Stadium was an easy task. That contract was at worst a good one from the get-go.
bobbleheadguru
Nick Markakis has the same 2014 fWAR as 38 year old Torii Hunter in 2013 (2.5). Better fielder, worse batter.
He is neither good not bad. He just IS. I think you can find that “moderately adequate performance player” for less than $12MM/season.
LazerTown
right. I certainly think he will find a job, I just don’t see a team spending $48MM to get him.
Steve Adams
There are always value plays on the free agent market, and there are always guys that sign for mid-range salaries that wind up looking like bargains (Morneau, Hughes, etc.). Doesn’t stop guys from getting paid. I saw people suggesting 3/24 for Markakis yesterday in the post on his option being declined, and that’s beyond low for me. I’m not writing what I’d offer as a GM — I’m writing what I think someone else will eventually. Teams are going to spend their money somewhere this offseason. Doesn’t have to be a great investment, doesn’t have to look good in 2-3 years, but they’re going to spend it.
bobbleheadguru
Thanks for the personal response Steve!
Steve Adams
Anytime. I knew this profile would get killed after seeing comments in yesterday’s post on his option being declined, but I can tell you I’ve spent more than a week debating what my ultimate call was going to be and a lot of thought went into it. I don’t mind defending my stance when people are cordial and civilized in their disagreement. I love our loyal and passionate commenters at MLBTR, and part of the fun of these profiles is this part right here. Feel free to pile it on if I miss wildly. Can’t miss as badly as I did on Ervin last year! Ha.
bobbleheadguru
The editorial content is a big reason why I LOVE this site.
Thanks again.
Can’t wait to see the analysis for Scherzer and VMART.
UK Tiger
Couldnt agree more.
Brilliantly open, honest, refreshing response from Steve, and the way the editors are happy to interact with general populace on here is why it appeals and why it will continue to have longevity.
LazerTown
I honestly can’t see $48MM/4. Maybe that aav on a shorter deal, but for what Markakis is I can’t see someone going that crazy to get him. He has topped 2 war once in the last 4 years. He certainly is someone that can get a job, but I don’t know why anyone would go that level commitment for him.
Corner outfielders with no power and not Ichiro have trouble getting paid.
David Sherzer
Why would he get more per year with a QO attached than without?
Steve Adams
Teams are more reluctant to give out the extra year than the extra million or two on a shorter deal. If clubs are valuing him in the $13MM range on a three-year deal, a club can sweeten the offer by adding an extra year at a lower rate — in this example basically tacking on an extra year at $9MM — to try to get a deal done.
Cleveland did that with Victorino two years ago, reportedly offering 4/44 before he took 3/39 from Boston. I’d imagine the same happened with Jason Vargas last winter. I’m sure $8MM wasn’t the highest AAV he was offered, but $32MM was almost certainly the largest guarantee. In the end, a lot of guys will take the bigger guarantee even if it’s sacrificing some AAV.
David Sherzer
Got it. Thanks for the really thorough article and helpful response. Appreciate it.
Eric D.
That’s a huge over pay for Markakis. After all this guy is just one year removed from a 0 WAR season (in 160 games)
paqza
Due to injuries, but he’s been durable before and after.
Metsfan93
If you mean his performance suffered due to the injuries, okay. But if you mean that he was only a 0 WAR player because he lost some durability due to his injury, we’ll have to disagree. He posted a 700 PA- season in 2013. 2012 was the one where he missed time, though he was effective when he played that year (126 wRC+). The bottom line is he’s now going to turn 31 in a month and has 4 fWAR in the last three seasons over just under 1900 PA. He’s a decent ballplayer, but average at best.
paqza
I agree with you that he isn’t the answer the Mets need.
OhthePossibilities
Yes, his performance dropped in 2013 because of the lingering effects of the 2012 injuries. He noted that he was unable to train properly in that offseason and he did indeed look like a weaker player (strength wise) in 2013 than he did this year.
Metsfan93
That’s certainly something I’d consider but given he was only average this year and it’s the first time he’s crossed the 2-win threshold since 2010, I’m still hesitant to believe he’s anything more than an average player at best. I still wouldn’t pay him more than 12 MM after the first year. a 12 MM, 9 MM, 7 MM, 5 MM four-year deal (33 MM total) could work for me, or a 3/28 deal using the first three years.
OhthePossibilities
It’s not a matter of what you or I would pay. We aren’t GMs. The people who are routinely overspend on players compared to what people in comment sections believe they are worth.
DarthMurph
4/48 Steve?!?!? Last year as a whole MLBTR overestimated the mid-tier market by a wide margin which hasn’t been reflected in this years predications.
bobbleheadguru
Agree. If VMART is projected to get 3/48 or 4/60, how can Markakis get 4/48?
Steve Adams
Because Markakis is five years younger and has an actual position.
Jim Johnson
Markakis is the oldest 30 year old in baseball.
rct 2
Really an apples to oranges comparison. Markakis is younger and should get a longer deal, but Martinez is a better player and should get a higher AAV.
LazerTown
Agree. $48MM takes at least some bidding war to get to. Sure he is young and all, and he is a fine enough player. He isn’t far enough ahead anyone else though, and corner outfielders are easy to replace. At 3B and ok enough defense I could see it, but as a right fielder it’s tough.
bobbleheadguru
Agree, at those dollars, Headley would be a much better investment, even if Headley bats .240.
Steve Adams
We overestimated the mid-tier market? Predictions:
Jhonny Peralta: 3/36
Curtis Granderson: 3/45
Justin Morneau: 1/7
Omar Infante: 3/25
James Loney: 2/16
We overshot Cruz, Ervin, etc. — the guys who set out with outlandish expectations that were so far gone that teams just flat out ignored them. Admitted, but I don’t think Markakis falls into that category.
I debated 4/44, and I won’t be shocked at 3/39, but we go through this every year with free agent sticker shock. For fun, I went back and read the comments today on our post that Peralta was seeking $56MM. People were appalled.
If it’s high, it’s high — but there are no bats this offseason, and Markakis is going to be the best outfield bat without a QO attached that brings any form of certainty. It’s not like I’ll shy away from it if I’m wrong. I have zero problem owning those mistakes, but I was confident enough to go 3/39 with a QO — and following last night’s indications that he may not have a QO, I had to adjust upward.
DarthMurph
4/48 is still a significant contract that requires multiple teams to get seriously involved in a guy who hovers dangerously close to replacement level.
Rios, Rasmus, Cuddyer, Aoki, and Willingham are somewhat comparable players who offer similar WAR projections that will cost significantly less than that. There’s also Suzuki and Hunter, which aren’t great options but are again worth considering when a 50 million dollar Markakis is the alternative. Plus a trade market that will have some decent options.
I just can’t see a market developing for that much money. Once Tomas and Cabrera are off the table, Markakis looks appealing, but I just don’t see the demand there with so many other cheaper alternatives that offer similar upsides at a fraction of the cost.
Steve Adams
It’s significant, but looking back at previous offseasons, you’re telling me you can’t see a team consider Markakis a two-win player for the next four years (or even the next three) and pay him at that rate? Again, I’m not saying I go 4/48 on him, but some team’s going to pay him more than most people are willing to consider possible at this point. Maybe it’s 3/39 even without the QO, but the notion that there aren’t teams who will view him as a $12-13MM player is incorrect to me.
Also, looking at the alternatives you listed: Willingham sounds like he’s retiring; Suzuki, Hunter, Rios and Rasmus *were* replacement level (or close) in 2014; Cuddyer played 49 games. Any could end up a better investment than Markakis, no dispute from me. But some contending clubs will look upon Markakis with more certainty.
With this profile more than any other, I knew I’d get killed on the prediction. I don’t think I’ll have greater backlash on any that are left in the queue for me, but that’s not something I can let dissuade me.
If Markakis signs for 3/30 Rev, you can be the first to comment (and realistically, you’ll probably be one of them! haha) and say, “How ’bout that prediction now, Steve?” I’ll happily own it. It’s part of the risk and part of the fun of doing these.
DarthMurph
I’m just not seeing any teams desperate enough to pony up 4/48 for him.
No to the Dodgers, Yankees, Red Sox, Mariners, Cardinals, Royals, A’s, Pirates, Nationals, Blue Jays, Giants and Angels on that high an AAV. Highly unlikely for the Tigers and the Rangers. That covers the contenders and the big spenders. Who knows about the Phillies.
Players like Crawford (plus money), Victorino, and Byrd are going to be available. Couple that with the albeit stinky options I mentioned in my other post, I’m just not seeing a bidding war for this guy. Teams desperate for hitting with expendable money will likely look elsewhere because Markakis isn’t really a big difference maker.
I will gladly eat crow if I’m wrong and I hope you know I have the utmost respect for the work that you and the rest of the staff do here.
Metsfan93
You were confident Markakis would have been able to secure 3/39 with a QO? Markakis is the fourth best free agent outfielder, behind Cruz, Tomas, and Melky, according to your predictions. Two years ago, the FA outfielders in the MLBtr top-50 were Hamilton, Bourn, Upton, Swisher, Pagan, Victorino, Cabrera, and Hunter and they signed for, respectively, 125 MM, 48 MM, 75 MM, 56 MM, 40 MM, 39 MM, 16 MM and 26 MM. All were coming off of 2.9+ fWAR seasons, and yet only four reached 48 MM. Hamilton was coming off of a 4.2-win year with 43 HR. Bourn had a 6.1-win walk year with 42 SB and a lot of defensive value. Upton was 28 and coming off of a 3.1-win walk year with 28 HR. Swisher was coming off of a 3.8-win walk year with 24 HR. Hunter had a 5-win walk year, Pagan and Melky had 4.5-win walk years, and Victorino had a 2.9-win walk year and fit Boston’s short-term-deal plan perfectly. All of these outfielders were superior to Markakis and yet only four reached the 48 MM plateau or higher. If Markakis’ performance isn’t worthy of 48 MM, teams aren’t going to throw money at him just to do so.
Metsfan93
Player A: 8.0 fWAR, 2013-2014. 600 PA @ 114 wRC+ followed by 531 PA @ 103 wRC+. +9.2 and +21.6 DEF ratings. Will turn 31 in May of 2015.
Player B: 2.5 fWAR, 2013-2014. 700 PA @ 88 wRC+ followed by 710 PA @ 106 wRC+. -14.1 and -2.5 DEF ratings. Will turn 31 in November of 2014.
Player A: 4-year, 48 MM predicted MLBtr contract.
Player B: 4-year, 48 MM predicted MLBtr contract.
Either we’re overrating Nick Markakis or underrating Chase Headley.
Erik Trenouth
Let’s throw Player C in there as well:
1.7 fWAR from 2013-2014. 372 PA at 86 wRC+ followed by 621 at 125 wRC+. -11.5 and -12.1 DEF ratings. Will turn 31 in August of 2015.
5 year, 66.25 MM predicted MLBtr contract.
Melky may be even more overrated.
Steve Adams
A lot of people are going to be willing to overlook Melky’s 2013 numbers given the spinal tumor. He has his warts, but the QO and PED concern will be bigger issues than his 2013 numbers.
Metsfan93
They’re not simply going to ignore 2013, though. Melky is nowhere near the player Jhonny Peralta was either in Peralta’s walk year, two years leading into free agency, three years leading in, etc. Melky’s only two years that could come close to warranting a 66 MM guarantee were the two year immediately before his PED suspension. Peralta was a valuable defender and has always been a steady hitter from the time he came into the league, plus had a unique set of circumstances which lead to him getting 53 MM – a contending team with one weakness and payroll flexibility for just 2014, who wouldn’t sign a free agent linked to QO. The Cardinals wouldn’t have signed Melky, all other things equal. Melky doesn’t have a lot of the positives Peralta had, but he has all the negatives Peralta had plus others. We’ll see where Melky eventually lands. I don’t think you’re too far off on AAV, but for several years less. I think 3/39 is most likely for Melky.
Dock_Elvis
I’m linking every left handed bat, including Ted Williams, to the White Sox this winter. Prediction by over compensation I call it.
Lefty_Orioles_Fan
Well, I am raising your Ted Williams with Stan ‘The Man’ Musial!
Plus, I hear Fred McGriff is going to make a comeback to get his 500th Hr!
Mitch Augustyn
Doubtful Markakis leaves Baltimore. Way too young for the Yankees. He loves Baltimore and the city loves him. just cannot pay him more than Adam Jones a 4 time All Star. Hope they can sign him for around $10M a year for 4 years. Halfway to 3000 hits at 30.
Dynasty22
Yes, because the Yankees specifically target old players…
Bleed_Orange
I agree Markakis will probably stay in Baltimore, honestly probably Baltimore’s number one priority now. My guess is he get somewhere in the neighborhood of Hardy’s deal of 3 years at 10-11mil plus a option year.
Metsfan93
I’d be okay if Baltimore re-signed him for 3/27-33 MM. I like Markakis a lot.
Mark Eisner
He’s not going anywhere. Orioles’ lifer.
Metsfan93
The Royals don’t need to replace Aoki. The Royals have his replacement in-house: Jarrod Dyson. Signing someone else would be a waste of resources for a team who needs all the money they have.
Steve Adams
I’m a Dyson fan, but they’ve shied away from giving him a full-time job for multiple offseasons now, and he’s been about the same hitter three years in a row.
KC’s a stretch anyhow since they don’t have the deepest pockets, but I can’t just assume they’re penciling Dyson in next year.
Metsfan93
After how well Dyson has played, I can’t imagine they shy away from it any longer. They just acquired Aoki last year, for this year alone. Dyson would seem to at least have a chance to earn the job in spring training. I’m willing to give GMDM the benefit of the doubt here that he’ll give Dyson a shot.
jb226 2
I was thinking the Cubs might have some interest. They’ve made some noise this offseason about wanting to sign a veteran outfielder and Markakis would fit the bill. Plus, they’re not necessarily a team in need of power, especially if Kris Bryant is on the club at some point next year.
However, I don’t see them interested if the bidding gets to four years (even three might be a stretch).
macdice
Mariners?
Charlie Burns
Possibly, though the Mariners need a bit more power like Cruz (seems unlikely since ownership doesn’t like players linked to PEDs) or VMart over Markakis’ decent bat and good OBP.
Frank I. 2
White Sox are a great fit
they have a hole in LF, Viciedo should be moved to DH
love the fit in that lineup
brian310
And then continue the off season by upgrading from Viciedo
Mihailo1227
I believe they should trade tank, conor and one of our young 2nd baseman, for a starting right hander, or a lefty batter.
Ralph Esposito
I had thought Viciedo, Semien and Beck to Oakland for Samardjizija and Jaso would be a fair trade for both teams. Also, Markakis would play right with Avi moving to left.
Ralph Esposito
Another trade I had thought of was John Danks for Tim Lincecum even up.
Metsfan93
What are we projecting Norichika Aoki to get in FA? He’s got 5.1 fWAR since 2012 began to Markakis’ 4.0, and both are between 1800 and 1900 PA over that time, with a slight edge to Markakis, while Aoki is projected at 2.0 WAR per 600 PA going forward via Steamer. That’s very similar to Markakis.
Damon Bowman
Steve, I don’t understand your thinking with Markakis. A single season deal for $17.5 mil is well above Markakis’ market value. He’d probably be much closer to $10-12 mil per year in a 3- or 4-year deal. Why would he decline the opportunity to play a single season at $17.5 mil and boost his numbers and play for another shot at a multi-year deal in 2016? Markakis is completely at home in Baltimore and there isn’t a better ballpark for him to put up solid offensive numbers. I can’t see a single team that would offer him anything north of $13 mil a season so why turn down $17.5 mil for a single season if offered?
Jim Johnson
Why would Markakis’ numbers ever get a boost? At this point in his career, his numbers are only going to decline. He needs to take whatever the best multi-year deal comes his way this off-season.
Mikenmn
Isn’t the real risk with Markakis that you are signing someone to be just a bit better than average–maybe. Is that really worth 4/48? He has over 1400 PA’s with a slugging percentage of under .400, and he has no speed. He hasn’t been a special player since 2008.
Jim Johnson
It’s not really a “risk,” because that is what you are getting. He’s going to hover around average. That’s what you are banking on, and that is what you are basically going to get. The question is, “is that what you want?” But it’s not really a “risk.”
Christopher A. Otto
I think your guess is right on the money. Timing is perfect for Markakis, and he might get up to double of what he’s worth.
bjsguess
Steve’s prediction seems high but I can see someone paying that.
At the core though we have a corner outfielder who can’t run, has conflicting defensive value, doesn’t hit for a particularly high average and slugs under .400. And yeah – he’s also turning 31.
I guess he’s better than running a scrub out there but really he’s just a 1.0 – 1.5 WAR right fielder. I wouldn’t want him on my club period as that is a valuable spot and I need a much, much better hitter. BUT, if I had to take him I’d do no more than 1-2 years at $8M annually.
Daniel Morairity
Rangers need this guy
frogger6
How about the Brewers sign him and either put him in RF and go ahead with the discussed Braun to 1B move, or put markakis at 1B given his decline in RF recently?
oh wait….
“He’s never posted a walk rate lower than 7.9 percent in a season and is at 9.3 percent for his career (8.7 percent in 2014). He’s one of the toughest batters in baseball to strike out, as evidenced by a lifetime strikeout rate of 13 percent”
Nevermind. Melvin hates hitters like that.