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By Mark Polishuk | at
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Tyler S
I hope we don’t over spend on Cruz & Markakis. I think a 4-year 45-mil deal should be enough for Nick. Now for Cruz I think a 3-year 46-mil or 2-year 28-mil deal would be nice. We can’t really rely on Pearce to put up the same numbers as he did last year, but he does have the potential to put up something close. I think extending Tillman would also be really nice to do as well. We can’t give up on Davis yet either, he’s still got a lot of power and was starting to get in a groove towards the end of the year.
Seamaholic
If they do all that, you’re talking about a $140m payroll. That’s something like $40m more than this year. That would be … something.
Tyler S
Not really, Markakis was making 15-mil last year so he’d be getting around 4-mil less. Cruz was making 8-mil last year and would be up to around 14-mil a year… That’s only 2-mil more off those 2 players. I don’t know where you got that number.
Bob Bunker
Arbitration raises. In the article above it says without any free agent signings the O’s are at 110 million. Signing Markakis and Cruz for 26 million a year combined would get them to 136.
David Stevenson
Tillman and Gonzalez seem a bit high though. Especially for first year arbitration guys.
Bob Bunker
Yah but at worst they each get 3.5 million and that would be 7 million instead of 9 million so 2 million savings. Not much of a difference.
LazerTown
I sure hope the Orioles give Markakis a $45MM contract.
UK Tiger
As a fan of a fellow AL team, so do i.
It would be a sizeable overpay.
Tyler S
It’s less than he was getting this year, and he’s a reliable leadoff hitter who plays gold-glove right field and can hit very well with 2 strikes.
UK Tiger
Reliable lead off hitters get on base more than around .335 combined in the last two years.
His defensive WAR pegs him as a minus defender, hes nowhere near gold-glove calibre, this has been a discussion many O’s fans have had on here recently.
Hes a solid MLB player, no better no worse, but committing 4 years and nearly $50m to him from an organisation that has to be careful with money would simply be a mistake and an overpay.
Tyler S
He’s most likely going to win the gold glove award this year… Only 2 outfielders had a 100% fielding percentage and it was him and Desmond Jennings. I know everyone’s in love with the dWAR stats but I think they’re overrated to an extent…
UK Tiger
You cant make an error on balls you cant get to.
Using fielding percentage as an indicator of someones ability in the field is far from the best way to do it.
David Stevenson
Delmon Young and his 1.000 fielding percentage agree.
UK Tiger
Quite.
Im not sure anyone who really understands fielding would use such a basic metric as Fielding Percentage any more, there are so many better ways to calculate value in the field.
David Stevenson
That said, I’m quite confused as to why sabermetrics hates Markakis’s defense. He’s FAR from a defensive liability right now. Then again, I’m relatively new to the advanced stats universe. His range isn’t the best, but do advanced stats take positioning into consideration?
orangeoctober
He plays a good RF in OPACY, but yeah his range leaves something to be desired. I hope they don’t overpay too much for Markakis, but I’ll be surprised if he isn’t back honestly. Buck/Angelos like him and he’s a “clubhouse leader”/”fan favorite” however much that matters. That being said, he pretty much just hits singles, and doesn’t have great speed. The O’s don’t have a “real” lead off type guy.
David Stevenson
Completely agree. Hence why I’d rather the Orioles sign Aoki. Similar production to Markakis with more speed (but less power, but let’s be real, the Orioles have a surplus of that)
Edwin Sineath
Buck doesn’t like speed. His prototype ideal player hits .220, hits 20+ homers, plays great defense. Thats why Jemile Weeks had no chance displacing Jonathan Schoop. Weeks can hit .290 all year long for the RedSox and Buck will just smile and say “Did you see my man Schoop? He’s hitting .209 and on his way to 30 homers!”
Edwin Sineath
True. Fielding percentage is almost meaningless. If that’s what Gold Glove awards are based on then it’s a meaningless award.
fomeols
Do you know what the Tigers are going to do with the other Martinez this off-season?
DragonLord
I think Matusz is non-tendered, Cruz moves on, Markakis is signed, and one of the pitching surplus is traded for Gattis from the Braves. Also, Masterson would be a good signing on a one year deal if they can make room for him. The O’s defense behind him will make him look real good with that GB%
Seamaholic
Gattis? Where would be play? DH? And the Orioles are already righty-power dominant. Seems like a bat fit to me.
David Stevenson
I’m VERY intrigued by Masterson. Great bounce-back candidate. Problem is, who do you trade to make room for him? Norris? And even then, you’d still have 6 starters. So in theory, to do that, you’d have to trade 2 starters. Chen for Howie Kendrick, perhaps?
And Gattis? Really? Where exactly is he playing? DH? Not a fan of that, especially if it’s Norris for Gattis.
Bob Bunker
If I’m Masterson I’m not signing with the O’s with such a homer friendly ballpark on a 1 year deal.
David Stevenson
OPACY is actually pretty neutral as far as park factors, IIRC.
Bob Bunker
I didn’t know that. I always think of the O’s park as a launching pad for homers. Is that not a common reputation?
DragonLord
He is a ground ball pitcher and with one of the best infield defenses in the game, they will make him look good.
orangeoctober
He could be good with the O’s defense behind him, but they already have a surplus of starting pitching and they’re going to have to make room for Dylan Bundy at some point this year possibly. I could see him being in the bullpen and spot starting like Gausman did his first year though unless he’s amazing.
David Stevenson
I’m viewing Bundy as a reliever at this point. Let him prove himself in there, and earn a spot in the rotation. Heck, if the rotation does what it did in 2014, Bundy might stay in the pen and be a great late inning shutdown arm.
DragonLord
You sign Masterson and trade the pitching surplus for LF/DH/RP/2B help, whether it be a player to bridge a gap like Kendrick while Schoop gets his bat going in AAA or a controllable guy like Gattis who can DH cheaply.
DragonLord
I see Gattis strictly as a DH. Norris is expendable if Masterson was hypothetically signed but I don’t think the Braves would go for a one year rental for a pre-arb guy like Gattis anyways. The package would need to include someone cost controlled, probably a pitcher. Gonzalez comes to mind but that would just need to be a start.
LazerTown
The big question is can they survive the dropoff/exodus from Pearce/Cruz/Young. Maybe Pearce finally broke out, but I will always bet against the 31 year old breaking out. Those types of players much more likely be a flash in the pan.
rich 3
Another “big question” is how much they missed Machado and Wieters.
Lefty_Orioles_Fan
First I want to say (type) great job Mark, very thorough and in depth analysis of the the O’s
Now to you, Rich. Yes, that is why the O’s finally ran out of gas.
We (actually they) clearly missed Machado and Wieters!
PS O’s need Butler or at the very least, I want him!
Plus, I still standing by that I want Jed Lowrie to sign with the O’s
Lastly, I want De Aza back. I like him, I like him a lot.
OrangeCards
It’s almost as though you want players you know the Orioles have no interest in just so you have something to signal the sky is falling when it doesn’t happen.
Butler, a DH only who posted a negative WAR last year? Buck doesn’t like a clog in the DH spot and Butler is precisely that.
Lowrie? Schoop provided more value as a 22 year old at 1/10th the cost.
Jim Johnson
I get that ideally you want a DH that can play the field to some degree, but how much bat you are sacrificing to get that “versatility”?
Lefty_Orioles_Fan
Schoop didn’t hit.
Plus, he can’t play third.
While Flaherty has had his moments, I can’t say I am that big of a fan. I have always admired both Billy Butler and more recently Jed Lowrie. Plus, look at Flaherty’s OBP vs. Lowrie, it’s not even close.
I stand by who I want and that’s that as far as I am concerned.
OrangeCards
Schoop didn’t hit? I’d say he held his own as a 22 year old rookie. He can’t play 3rd? Nope, but he plays a helluva second base. In fact, he played it so well he provided more overall value than Lowrie and did so a fraction of the cost. So why bring in a lesser player for more money?
Ya know who can play 3rd base? Manny Machado.
Lowrie has a better OBP than the utiltity infielder Flaherty? That’s nice, but I’d prefer a utility guy that can actually play multiple defensive positions at an above average level.
Bulter can’t field, and posted a negative WAR last year. Negative.
You can stand by your silly ideas but it doesn’t make them any more valid. If you admire those guys, fine, get their jersey or their baseball card. It doesn’t mean they have a place on the Orioles.
orangeoctober
Yeah, Buck doesn’t really like DH-only types I think. I think he’d rather use the DH spot with a few different guys like how last year it was split between Cruz/Pearce/Young and random days that they used it to give position players a rest. Although who knows, really. Maybe they think Butler could be a possible fit if they lose Cruz.
David Stevenson
Butler could be a fit. He’s a lefty and he’d probably do well at OPACY. I’d probably gamble on Michael Morse before Butler though.
And Lowrie? No. Worse defender than Schoop, and not even that much of an upgrade with the bat. No thanks.
Crazy Horse
Butler is a RHH. (I guess you didn’t watch ALCS or WS.)
I think Butler is a better hitter than Morse, and Morse is a butcher in the field.
IMO, Butler is a good fall back option to slip in at 1B if we give up on Davis and Pearce is needed to fill a hole in the OF.
Schoop over Lowrie, no contest. Schoop has considerable upside potential. Lowrie’s nothing special to block his path.
David Stevenson
My mistake, thought he was a lefty for some reason. Guess I never really noticed. Would like the Orioles to add a lefty bat somewhere.
Bleed_Orange
Young really didn’t do much this season. He was more of an off the bench type players who only saw starts once or twice a week. Pearce I agree with you who knows what he will do next year, probably regress and losing Cruz will hurt. But the addition of Machado and Wieters will make up for the loss of Cruz and the potential decline of Pierce especially defensively where Cruz was a black hole and Pierce was meh at best.
David Stevenson
Pearce should be productive next season. His success with the closed stance makes me optimistic that he can somewhat sustain his 2014 performance. At worst, he’s a $2M platoon guy who can crush lefties. There are far worse ways to spend $2M.
UK Tiger
Good lord that Ubaldo contract looks bad now doesnt it?
Vandals Took The Handles
I like Duquette.
I couldn’t believe he bit for 3/4’s of a good year after 1-3/4’s of absolutely awful pitching. A classic salary run.
UK Tiger
Absolutely, and that “good” year still came with a 1.33 WHIP. Quite how that and his other recent dreadful years parlayed into a 4 year $50m deal is beyond most sane reasoning.
Theres no doubt Duquette has done some very good things for Baltimore…this just wasnt one of them.
Bleed_Orange
Umbaldo played awful last year but his stuff is still there. With a full off season to work with the staff hopefully he can get his walks down (which are really his Achilles heal). Though this may be an Os fan just hoping we are not throwing money at a lost cause.
Seamaholic
He’s a shadow of his former self though. Watch some video of his Rockies’ years if you want to cry yourself to sleep. I mean he was, at times, Pedro-level dominant.
David Stevenson
I refuse to call someone a “lost cause” because of one bad season. That’s simply outrageous. I’m giving him at least one more season to prove himself useful in some way before calling him a lost cause.
Tyler S
He showed some promise in his last 2 starts at the end of this season. He’ll definitely get his shot next year. The guy can obviously pitch, he had a Cy Young caliber year in Colorado, which is one of the hardest, if not the hardest ballpark to pitch in.
UK Tiger
Two starts…for some reason the words “sample size” pop into my head.
I know you are an O’s fan but that doesnt mean you cant be realistic about your own team.
As it stands that contract is looking like a disaster.
David Stevenson
Compare his “bad contract” to other “bad contracts” before calling Ubaldo’s contract bad.
UK Tiger
One bad contract doesnt make another good, just perhaps less bad, simply because theres less $$$ involved.
Its a bad contract based on his his previous incredibly inconsistent production.
He might shock the world and put up a sub 3 ERA next year…but i doubt it.
David Stevenson
OK, fair point. And honestly, I wouldn’t be shocked at all if he has a 3.50-4.00 ERA next year. That’s the way Ubaldo is.
Vandals Took The Handles
Great/comprehensive article again (as all the team Offseason Outlook articles have been).
In addition to the under the radar things he’s done, Duquette’s MO with the Orioles has been to remain patient and let the market come to him. I like Butler as a 1B with the O’s, but I can see where Adam LaRouche would be an excellent fit for them and could fall to them. If he and his family are living in the DC area, going up to play in Baltimore could mean they don’t have to make a move.
tesseract
Chris Davis set to make $11.8 million in arb? Holly molly
David Stevenson
I’d gamble that on him being something between his 2013 self (best case scenario) and his 2014 self (his Murphy Law self). Especially with the Orioles having so few lefty bats.
tesseract
Let’s be honest. Chris Davis had a breakout year in 2013 that nobody saw coming. He is no Miguel Cabrera
David Stevenson
And he’s not as bad as he was last year. He’s not as good as he was in 2013, nor is he as bad as he was in 2014. Somewhere in the middle isn’t out of the question. .240-.260 BA, ~10% walk rate, 30+ homers. I’ll take that from my first baseman.