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By Steve Adams | at
Email a copy of 'Offseason Outlook: Los Angeles Angels Of Anaheim' to a friend
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UK Tiger
I dont think the Angels need huge changes, just a pitching upgrade here or there, but then what club doesnt need that?
They could also do with Hamilton starting to provide some value, getting a total of 3.1 fWAR for $34m so far isnt what they had in mind, but even though Pujols is declining, at least they are getting decent production from him, getting 7.7 fWAR back for their $51m outlay.
DiPoto still has pretty much all the pieces there to contend strongly again.
bgardnerfanclub
Josh Hamilton looked absolutely lost in the playoffs. He was swinging before the ball got to the plate. I have never understood the deal with that guy, he is so inconsistent.
vtadave
It’s crazy…16.4 in the three seasons prior to signing with the Angels and 3.1 in his first two seasons with them. He also had a .924 OPS in away games in 2012, so the regression is obviously not ballpark-driven.
stl_cards16
Wasn’t he absolutely terrible the 2nd half of 2012, as well?
RyÅnWKrol
It is ballpark driven to an extent. Look at his road numbers during his entire stint as a Ranger. His OBP was often right around what it was overall in 2014. Plus his 2012 season was so lob sided (sizzling in April/May, terrible the rest of the way) that any of his overall numbers from ’12 will be deceiving.
HoopDreams
I think he was 0 for the entire ALDS
Bryan 15
He grounded out to second in the third game and it was by far his best at bat.
bgardnerfanclub
Full Disclosure: Josh Hamilton is the one MLB guy I can’t stand. I have always hated him.
But, from the most neutral perspective I can muster it does seem like he could bounce back. He has terrible plate discipline. He swings at nearly 50% of pitches outside the zone. So, maybe he could stop doing that. And, while he has always fed off of bad pitching and struggled a little with the good ones, when he gets hot he can hit. But, most of his issues seem to be mental ones. So, there is always a possibility of him returning to form.
Robert Thacher
Do you hate him because of his one time drug addiction? How could you hate him when he was doing well.
bgardnerfanclub
Nope. Nothing to do with that. That is most definitely not my style. It has to do with the way he plays the game. He makes a lot of excuses and always finds others to blame. He has a ton of talent and I get frustrated because his approach to the game limits his success. The best example I can give is when he said that his lack of success in day games was because his eyes are blue. It is something called a “fixed mindset” and it just makes me livid. I am more likely to vent my dislike when he plays well because I don’t like to kick a guy when he is down.
EDIT: Also, “hate” is a strong word. Strongly dislike is prolly closer.
RyÅnWKrol
No offense but it’s a bit naive to think Hamilton is the only player, or one of a handful, who makes a lot of excuses and blames other things. They all do it to an extent. These are some of the most coddled, pampered individuals you’ll find outside of the movie and music industry. But you hear more about it regarding Josh Hamilton because it’s part of the whole narrative hovering over his life as a baseball player. I’ve always heard that Pujols is somewhat of a diva in the clubhouse himself. But we never hear about it because that’s not his public image. They’re all spoiled in some way.
bgardnerfanclub
Starting a comment with “no offense” is always bad news 😉 Look. I don’t want this to be a thing. I was just revealing my bias because I teach logic and argument for a living and when someone has an obvious blind spot it is best to reveal it. I have had long, long, long conversations about my Josh Hamilton thing, and I guarantee you that it cannot be resolved on a comment board. So, suffice to say. I know which players I like and I know which I don’t. And let’s just all move on with the knowledge that I hate that guy, and that’s okay.
RyÅnWKrol
I had no intention of this turning into a “thing”. Just a reminder of how players making excuses goes way beyond Josh Hamilton. No one will be stripping you of your fan card for not liking Josh Hamilton. You could probably start a club and fill a whole stadium with fans who hate Josh Hamilton. In fact, you would be able to in Texas alone. Do you teach a logic and critical thinking class?
bgardnerfanclub
Ha. Not worried about my fan card. I just know I could go on about Hamilton forever, and this board isn’t about that. And, yes, I am teaching Critical Reasoning courses, among others, this semester. Although, if you were to ask my students they would tell you they think my classes are really Baseball 101.
Seriously though, is he going to bounce back? or get worse?
msg333
0-15 with a GIDP and one RBI (sacrifice groundout).
RyÅnWKrol
He was actually keeping his BA around .290 for much of the season until a sudden late August slump. And his OBP was still better than most left fielders in 2014. His issues in the playoffs were due to being injured and insisting he could play when he should not have even been on the field.
bgardnerfanclub
That makes sense. He was better in 2014 than 2013, but, that still isn’t the player the Angels signed him to be. I would love to see him adjust his approach at the plate, he seems to have a fixed mindset and a lot of excuses for his downfalls. But, I try not to talk about Hamilton all that much because, as I said, I really struggle to be objective.
msg333
Hamilton should not have been on the roster for the playoffs. He had performed poorly for most of the year and missed the final month of the season to injury. A 5-game playoff series is not the time to make a rehab start. It might have been OK had he been used as a pinch hitter option, but even there the Angels would have been better off using teh roster space for a speedy pinch runner like Tony Campana (see how valuable Terrance Gore was for the Royals as a designated pinch-runner/defensive sub)
Josh’s misplays in the outfield and a 0-15 slash line arguably cost the Angels at least one game in the ALDS.
RyÅnWKrol
It took a lot more than that to cost them just one game. Trout and Pujols not hitting until game 3 cost them a lot. Plus, Aoki and his “close your eyes and make wish” plays in the OF saved game 1 for the Royals. Colin Cowgill getting thrown out at 3B probably saved game 2 for KC. That was a series where it could go either way at any time. It came down to one hit, one play, one pitch, at least in the first two games. By the end of game 3, it should’ve been Angels up 2 games to 1 regardless of what Hamilton did or didn’t do on the field.
LazerTown
If they had the payroll for it it would probably be a decent destination for Scherzer.
UK Tiger
Yeah i can agree with that, but theres no way Moreno will sanction what it would cost for Max for luxury tax reasons i would suggest.
bjsguess
Fairly certain that Scherzer could be used by any team. For 29 clubs they will pass on him due to payroll considerations.
RyÅnWKrol
Not that I’m making excuses, but it could be worse a lot worse with Hamilton. At least he managed a .331 OBP compared to Vernon Wells not even able to reach a .280 OBP, and providing a negative WAR. The Angels signed him knowing the risk and because they can afford it. No use in worrying about his salary. I don’t think any big contract like that ever brings back equal or better value.
I Want My Bird
They have to consider moving Kendrick because of maxed out team salary. They have to get “cost-controlled” starting pitching (read: mediocre at best) because of maxed out salary. Yeah, the couple of big salaries really do hurt the team as a whole.
RyÅnWKrol
They don’t have to move Kendrick at all. They’ve already acquired cost controlled starting pitching and have a full 5 returning in 2015, with as many as 3 extra starters. The Angels are well balanced enough already as a whole that those salaries do not hurt the team very much at all. There is no reason they can’t continue fielding a playoff team despite having this salaries.
msg333
If they were going to overspend on a free agent they should have at least done so in a position of need (at the time, before the 2013 season) like starting pitching. The Angels could have kept Morales as our lefty power instead of trading for Vargas and acquired soemone like Anibal Sanchez instead of getting Hamilton and been a lot better off.
RyÅnWKrol
None of that really would’ve made a whole lot of difference. Why? Because, as with 2010, 2011, and 2012, it was their bullpen that was their biggest weakness. Even with Anibal Sanchez, their bullpen would’ve been a disaster, just like the Tigers.
iheartyourfart
Could you see a David Freese deal involving Ian Kennedy and a mid-level minor league arm?
vtadave
Not sure why the Padres would do that. Kennedy is actually a good pitcher.
BK
Im thinking Cron and Freese for Kennedy and a lotto arm. I think both teams love it.
vtadave
I don’t think the Padres would “love” getting Freese. He would do zero in that ballpark. May as well deal off Kennedy for prospects.
rxbrgr
Cron’s a better fit for DH, not as a starting 1B of an NL team.
Steve Adams
No. If the Angels want Kennedy they’d have to give up a long-term piece (more than a mid-level Minor Leaguer). The Padres will want more than a so-so prospect and a one-year rental of an expensive Freese. Kennedy has quite a bit more trade value than that.
bjsguess
Hmmm …
From 2010 to 2014 Kennedy has been worth 13.6 fWAR. Freese has been worth 10 fWAR. Of course, Freese only played about half time in 2010 and 2011. Adjusting for performance as a full-time player they would be easily within the margin or error for fWAR.
If you look at just the 3 previous seasons where both were close to full-time players the difference is 6.3 fWAR to 6.2fWAR. Kennedy is just barely ahead of Freese.
Finally, if you trust Steamer at all they are projecting 1.3 WAR for Kennedy in 2015 (192 IP) vs 1.9 fWAR for Freese (138 games played).
Past performances are very similar (if you believe WAR). Future estimates peg Freese as more valuable but certainly I wouldn’t fault anyone for flipping the order. Point is – they are very, very similar players in terms of value. The BIG difference – Kennedy is slated to earn an additional $4M in arbitration vs Freese.
All things considered – I would keep Freese and the $4M savings rather than taking on Kennedy.
Rally Weimaraner
Very few people think that 1 pitching WAR = 1 position player WAR. WAR has some serious problems when it comes to evaluating pitchers.
RyÅnWKrol
You beat me to that. There needs to be more refining before we just accept that WAR is equal between position players and pitchers.
bjsguess
You may be right but that opinion isn’t shared by the people who created and promote WAR. 1 win is 1 win and is valued equally whether it comes through batting, base running, defense, or creating outs as a pitcher.
fangraphs.com/library/misc/war/
I’m curious though – are you suggesting that 1 pitcher WAR is better than 1 hitter WAR? Or are you saying that WAR for starting pitching is just flawed and is unhelpful in determining a pitchers contributions to a team?
tesseract
No chance
RyÅnWKrol
Kennedy had a bounce back season, so if the Padres were to shop him they’d probably ask for more, and a cheaper package of players they have more control over.
vtadave
Josh Hamilton for Ryan Howard. Who says no? Angels save $23 million and the Phillies get a needed OF piece. Not sure where the Angels would play C.J. Cron, but perhaps they could flip him to an AL team for a pitcher.
Unassisted Triple Play
The Angels should say no. Howard is a shadow of his former self. Pass!
section 34
In a vacuum this might make sense. Hamilton is a better player at this point, but $23 million is a lot of money. Problem is, for it to make any sense at all the Angels would have to try to get something out of Howard, which isn’t completely impossible for an AL team. Just not the Angels.
The team that could actually give Howard a shot, Seattle, doesn’t have any contracts that bad to move, plus they just got a flawed 1B of their own.
Rally Weimaraner
I actually kind of like that trade for the Halos. Howard is way over paid, just like Hamilton, but is owed 60 MM while Hamilton is owed 89 million, plus Howard’s contract has a lower AAV thus freeing up some luxury tax space. Hamilton has been a better hitter but can’t stay healthy. Angels could Platoon CJ Cron and Howard at DH. In the end I really doubt it would happen.
Melvin Mendoza, Jr.
Why on earth would you bench Cron in favor of Kendrys Morales?
Steve Adams
Basically just suggesting a six-week flier or so on Morales to see if he can rebound. If not, flip them and let Cron be the full-time DH. Kendrys isn’t going to get paid too handsomely this offseason, and Cron’s never really walked much.
If he’s a .260/.290/.440 hitter going forward, Morales has more upside than that, and it wouldn’t be too expensive to find out if Kendrys has anything left.
I don’t really see much to get excited about with Cron. He strikes me as a lesser Mark Trumbo, and I’m not even a Trumbo fan. I’d be looking at other DH options is all I’m saying.
bjsguess
Cron and Trumbo are nice comps. Agree with you there. However, Trumbo did net Skaggs and Santiago. If Cron can be flipped for something like that then he certainly has some value.
The kid is 24. It was his rookie season. And he played part time. The guy will hit 30+ HR’s with a full time gig. Even if he doesn’t walk much there’s still value there. With just a little improvement he could have value to teams that are interested in Nelson Cruz. Except he won’t come with a huge price tag.
That said, the idea on Morales isn’t horrible. He could be a buy low candidate. Just depends on how low Morales is willing to go.
Rally Weimaraner
Trumbo was a much more establish power hitter than Cron and I though Kevin Towers overpaid for Trumbo at the time. I really doubt LAA can get the same type of return for Cron.
bjsguess
Kevin Towers overpaid – agreed.
More established – agreed.
My point is that RIGHT NOW he may not net a Trumbo return but he has a year or two to prove to everyone that he has 30+ HR power. The market has consistently shown that if you are 30+ HR hitter that can put up a 260+ BA teams are willing to pay. Especially when that hitter is under team control and relatively cheap while going through arbitration.
Neekohlai
Trumbo could play good D at first though, Cron not so much.
Melvin Mendoza, Jr.
I see your points. It just doesn’t strike me as likely that Morales bounces back. And Cron looks promising to me.
RyÅnWKrol
In this era, you have to take what you can get as far as power. I’m kind of over worrying about walks in an era so dominated by pitching. I’m calling this the AAAA Era because I’ve never seen such a poor, passive aggressive approach in a time when pitchers are throwing first pitch strikes at a very high rate, and aren’t afraid to throw a 2-0 changeup. Have you ever taken a look at the neutralized stats calculator on BR.com? There, Mark Trumbo’s stats skyrocket into Juan Gonzalez land when adjusted for the steroid era around 2000 and at least a neutral setting. It’s all relative to the era. Right now, I’d be knocking down doors for the opportunity to acquire Trumbo and/or Cron. Cron has plenty of room to develop and I think Morales would be a nice reunion for depth.
Unassisted Triple Play
The thing that stood out for me was Gordon Beckham is gonna make 5 million next year! — Yikes! — I think that makes him a lock for a non-tender!
RyÅnWKrol
It may appear that way on the surface but the Angels want to maintain their IF depth and want to avoid breaking up a 98 win team as much as possible. Beckham is a good solution if Kendrick, Freese, or Aybar are injured. Good late inning defense option, basically would replace John McDonald’s role.
Rally Weimaraner
I would like to see Morales back in an Angels uniform but he may have lingering fears of home plate at the big A.
Scott Brewer
Angels get
– Kyle Hendricks
– C.J. Edwards
Cubs get
Howie Kendrick
Jerry Dipoto get it done!
Baseball597
Cubs would never do that deal.
Rally Weimaraner
Cubs have so many IF prospect there in no reason to trade for Kendrick. Plus I really doubt they are interested in players with only 1 year of team control remaining.
rxbrgr
CJ Edwards may be the Cubs’ best pitching prospect. And the Cubs don’t need an infielder on an expiring deal for that…
Scott Brewer
exactly Edwrds is a prospect he hasn’t done anything yet and please tell me who the cubs second baseman is for 2015….exactly they dont have one right now.
vtadave
Scott – The Cubs have multiple candiates to play 2B next year. Javier Baez, Addison Russell, Logan Watkins, and if Kris Bryant plays third, Luis Valbuena slots in at second. It’s probably the position (along with SS and OF) that the Cubs will target least this offseason. What do they need he most? Pitching, and you have them trading away two pitchers.
rxbrgr
As a Halos fan I see why YOU’d want this. Edwards was #28 on BA’s prospect list this season. For a pitching-thin club like Chicago, you don’t give that potential up for an expiring non-superstar when you have infielders Castro, Valbuena, Bryant, Baez, Russell, and Alcantara for 3 spots. Get to know a team besides your Angels. Kendrick definitely has some value, but not at that level nor really a match with that team. You just see shiny prospects and then make up this pie-in-the-sky deal for them…Get ‘er done!
rxbrgr
I know it’s a longshot to move Hamilton but could he be swapped with another albatross like Ryan Howard? Howard would have to alternate at DH and 1B with Pujols the next two years but his contract ends a year before Hamilton’s. Perhaps a few other pieces to fill each other team’s needs could be included, like Hamilton & Cron for Howard, Buchanan, and Dom Brown… Again, probably not realistic or worthwhile, but if each team wants to get rid of their aging overpaid superstar, then maybe a swap could make some sense.
vtadave
See my post above. Long shot, but intersting I agree.
cuscus85
I think the Pujols and Hamilton contracts are blessings in disguise. So much of the payroll goes to a select few that DiPoto is forced to make smarter choices in roster construction.
That’s why I think Kendrick won’t be traded. I think the team would get more value out of trading Cron or Freese. Like the trades for Tropeano and Ramos.
Side Note: I really think the only way Hamilton can get back to being at least a major league average player is if Scioscia and DiPoto tells him he needs to earn his starting job. They seem to ‘baby’ him out of respect of him being a veteran.
RyÅnWKrol
Dipoto would make those smart moves regardless. He preaches depth. The stats show that Hamilton was already an above average player. If he’s being babied because he’s a veteran it means he’s earned it.
MadmanTX 2
Hate to say that Hamilton performed best when he indulged in smokeless tobacco and energy drinks. I think he gave those up towards the end of his Rangers tenure and you see the result.