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By Steve Adams | at
Email a copy of 'MLBTR Mailbag: Phillies, Samardzija, Brewers, Sabathia' to a friend
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A'sfaninUK
Doesn’t Samardzija age down due to lack of innings though? He might be 31 but his arm is only about 27.
Jeff Todd
I’d assume that age acts independently of innings, as would things like conditioning, genetics, and a wide range of other minor factors (health and wellness? sleeping position?!). I have no idea how to allocate that, but I’d be interested to read anything where someone has attempted it.
Regardless, a four-year adjustment seems to be on the extreme side.
ASapsFables
Not sure about your actual age adjustment for ‘Shark’ but he definitely has less mileage on his arm than a pitcher who would have been a starter throughout his entire MLB career rather than being a reliever for many years before transitioning. The age and excess mileage on last year’s ace FA starting pitcher James Shields cost him substantially in the marketplace and his performance so far this season in San Diego seems to be justifying that fear.
ronnsnow
I think Samardzija would be best served signing a 1 year deal in a pitcher friendly ballpark to rebuild some value. Pittsburgh is probably the best spot as AJ Burnett will not return in 2016.
ASapsFables
‘Shark’ is not likely to sign a 1 year contract with any team as a free agent. If he did, it would be more likely to happen with the White Sox and he could do that by simply accepting a qualifying offer should they extend him one before his free agency begins since his home in Valparaiso, Indiana is driving distance from Cellular Field on Chicago’s South Side.
puntblock
That is an rather uninformed answer regarding the Brewers. Khris Davis was tried at first base, with disastrous results, and the team has talked about how left field is the only spot he can play. (Not enough arm for right.)
Santana does not have a “fair amount of experience” in center field. Out of 612 games in the minors, he played 12 in center.
Jeff Todd
Quite often, things that seem set in stone magically find a way of changing. It’s possible Davis could try it out again.
As for Santana, they’ve played him there twice, so they obviously see it as at least plausible that he sees temporary time there. And he’ll at least have some “fair” amount of experience by the end of this season, presumably.
bjtheduck
I still think Davis has a decent future as a DH. Teams don’t respect his arm (or lack thereof) in the outfield, and as puntblock noted above, the Brewers tried him at 1B in the minors with disastrous results. Unless the NL starts using the DH in the next CBA, that makes him trade bait in my book.
Ken M.
Does the buy-out apply to Sabathia’s final season if it is guaranteed?
Jeff Todd
If the last year vests, he’ll get $25MM. If not, I assume it reverts to a club option, which I assume the team will not pick up, in which case he’d get $5MM.
So, going forward, he’d either get $30MM (2016 + buyout) or $50MM ($25MM apiece in 2016-17).
Ken M.
People seem to believe that CC is around for 2016 and just 5M to buy out. I thought it was guaranteed as long as his shoulder was ok. Thanks.
Jeff Todd
You have it right. Technically, it’s a vesting option — an easy-to-reach vesting option.
The full text is available at Cot’s (link below), but yeah, if he doesn’t have shoulder issues next year, it’ll vest and become fully guaranteed. So there’s rather a good chance they’ll have to pay it.
baseballprospectus.com/compensation/cots/al-east/n…
rct
I think Heyward is a great fit for the Phillies. Obviously, they won’t contend next year, but they’re also not going to build a contender in one offseason. Heyward is young enough where even if they don’t compete until 2018, he’ll still be only 28. They’ve got the money to sign him, and he’s been about a 5 WAR player every year. Add Heyward and a few low risk veterans (to potentially trade if they perform well) this offseason, add another big piece or two next offseason, and they’ll be in good shape.
Anyone who signs him, even to a ten year deal, is going to get a lot of value for at least 5-6 years before he starts declining.
lt michaels
Sorry Beachy and Morrow isnt going to cut it for me as a Phillie fan and hopefully it doesnt cut it for the Phillies either.
Not sure Beachy + Morrow is what Comcast had in mind when they signed $5 B over to the Phillies owners. The new TV starts this year.
Lets get some players in Philly its been a long 4 years.
rocketfish19
I am the first to say I don’t understand a lot of the new terms and numbers used today. I have been watching baseball since the early 60’s and I mostly rely on what I see on the field. To me, it was very evident just watching Sabathia that he was on the decline in 2012. Heavy guys often develop knee issues. A longtime Yankee fan, I was shocked and delighted at the prospect that he would walk away from the last years of his contract, with the “bad” years coming. I was really disgusted that Cashman added a year to the deal. That money could have been better used on one or two different pitchers. What has happened since 2012 with Sabathia is pretty much a lot of us thought would happen and could have been avoided. Branch Rickey was right, replace them before they get old, not after.