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By Mark Polishuk | at
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Steve_in_MA
An excellent recap of where we stand. The number one priority needs to be a bolstering of the bull pen. If it were not for the failures of our bullpen, we would have probably earned the wild card slot — even in this mostly disappointing season. The bullpen just hit way too many bats in the fat part. Alexi Ogando, Noe Ramirez and Matt Barnes must have wicked cases of whiplash from watching those screaming shots leave the stadium. Acquiring an ace would be nice, but that is secondary. The bullpen pitches 2-3 innings every night.
With the addition of some very talented youth this year, we are well positioned going forward.
bradthebluefish
When the Red Sox decided to go down the root of having five #3 pitchers, I told my friends that I would have spent the budget on bolstering the bullpen. Miller, Gregerson, etc. Too late now, but I have a lot of faith in Dave Dombroski, along with Matt Hazen and Frank Wren.
mike244
Biggest need is definitely the bullpen. Koji/Taz is a nice combo but the RS lack any other impact relievers. They no doubt should acquire 2-3 good bullpen arms.
The rotation does have some nice pieces. Erod and Owens seem like future stables in the rotation. Buchholz pitched like a TOR pitcher when healthy. Porcello’s peripherals indicate a bounce back year and he can be a solid 2/3 pitcher. But the team is lacking that true #1 ace. I say with their resources, they should go all out on either Price or Greinke. Zimmermann or Cueto wouldnt be bad either.
The offense is great. Was 3rd in the majors in runs scored if I recall.
An ace and 2-3 good bullpen arms, and I like Boston’s chances next season.
seamaholic 2
Think they need to investigate power hitters as well. Yeah Betts and Bogaerts are great, but Papi has to decline sometime, and no telling what Pedroia will give going forward (he’s going to be 32! when did that happen!). Castillo looks like a bust and Ramirez/Panda isn’t going to help much. They had a good offensive second half thanks to some pretty unsustainable hot streaks and a lot of sequencing luck. I’d guess Dombrowski makes a play for a corner OF and dumps Castillo if he can.
Eric D.
I cannot believe Cherington gave Castillo as long a contract as he did. And he was unwilling to give extra years to Lester. Gosh. Yeah, I have no faith in Bradley OR Castillo which is why Boston needs an outfielder and it shouldn’t be overlooked. After Mookie, it’s looking pretty weak.
Doug S.
I agree with the power hitters, bullpen, and ace. I think your gonna see some big moves this year. 3 out of 4 last place finishes is unacceptable in Boston and they know it has to change. Don’t forget the epic collapse in 2011. Here’s my proposals (pipedream).
1. Sign Price. No matter the cost, sign him.
2. Trade for Sonny Gray (Moncada, Guerra, Kopech and Devers should get it done if you need to add another piece, possibly Johnson) yes, that’s a ton.
3. Trade for Nolan Arenado and Carlos Gonzalez (Bucholz, Miley, Castillo, Margot, Sandoval and $20 mil cash considerations). Colorado Sounds like they are trying to move Cargo anyway and they need pitching bad.
4. Sign O’Day. He’s nasty
5. Trade for Papelbon. (Hannigan and a lower level prospect.)
Power hitters. Check:2 left and right.
Ace(s). Check: 2
Bullpen. Check: 2
Still holding onto good prospects Benintendi (ready to take over CarGo’s spot in 2 years) and Espinoza. Starting 5 of Price/Gray/Rodriguez/Porcello/Kelly with Owens competing in Spring. Maybe Kelly in Pen. Wright for depth/swing.
Bullpen: Papelbon/Uehara/O’Day/Tazawa/Ramirez/Layne/Wright
Lineup: Betts/Pedroia/Gonzalez/Arenado/Ortiz/Bogaerts/Shaw/Swihart/Bradley
Draven Moss
Some of these trades are crazy. Just sayin’.
Stonehands
Boston wouldn’t do the Oakland deal and COL wouldn’t touch the Arenado deal. I disagree with just about every move besides Price (there is a limit though) and O’day.
rct
Trading for Papelbon is crazy on its own, but if you were to do that, you would only have to give up a low level prospect, especially if you’re going to take on his salary.
bruinsfan94 2
“”still holding onto good prospects” *Trades Margot, Moncada,Guerra,Kopech,Devers,Johnson* Dude that doesnt make any sense. Why trade for Papelbon? Why give up a player with value and a prospect for a guy with negative value? Why trade the farm for Sunny Gray right when the young guys are paying off?
Johnny Shoe
Why didn’t they trade for Hamels?
There’s alot of dead money on the books.
Willy
It isnt as big of a pipe dream as you think But you need to adjust a couple of things. 1. the Red Sox will NOT trade Moncada, not after spending that kind of money. 2. Colorado will NOT trade Arenado but they will trade Cargo. The rest of what you said is doable.
Kevin 23
The trade scenarios that you created are laughable at best!
Willy
The offense isnt as good as you think. Dont go by “averages”. They lack power and dont have the typical 3-6 guys in the right spots. At least 2 changes need to occur (1st base & LF) for them to have the proper offense going forward. Oh and they need to get rid of Hanley so maybe its 3 changes.
bruinsfan94 2
They have Betts in left. This is not the 1990’s anymore. Homeruns are not everything. I’d bet my money on Hanley putting up good numbers at the plate. He was doing really good last season before running into the wall. Not every team needs the same type of lineup. The Red Sox have a lot of good hitters, and usually power is the last skill to develop, so I’d like my chances if I was them.
inkstainedscribe
He’s not an ace, but I wonder if the Sox and Braves discuss a deal involving Teheran.
jrwhite21
What about Shelby Miller? He can’t be happy in Atlanta…..
Draven Moss
I think he is a bad fit for the AL East honestly.
Stonehands
This wraps everything up nicely. Ideally, the Sox could package a rotation arm and 3-4 prospects not named Moncada for the ace and attack the free agent market for bullpen arms. Go grab 1 or both of Soria and O’day and maybe get another one in the trade package. I would like to unload Hanley as well, but I don’t see a realistic chance at doing that
Eric D.
Am I the only one who doesn’t trust Jackie Bradley Jr? Sure he had 1 hot month but that doesn’t negate a full season of lack of production that we’ve seen from him in the past. I would love to sign Jason Heyward, since he seems to be tremendously undervalued on the market and is still very young and an elite defender. Let Shaw and Holt platoon at first base and I’m liking that lineup for next season
start_wearing_purple
I read an article a while back, don’t remember by who, that basically said by now people can get a good feel for what a prospect can become. However that’s impossible to say with JBJ since he’s been all over the map. That said, he’s shown consistently he’s a solid defender. Also taking out his great month he has a .739 OPS which makes him around an average hitting outfielder, so I think he’s earned his position.
Eric D.
What if he goes back to a 42 wRC+ and hitting under .200? Who is going to take his place? Holt? Well, not if Holt is covering for Sandoval at third base, or Shaw/Ramirez and first base. Or Castillo in the outfield. OR and injured Pedroia/Bogaerts. My point is, Boston needs more depth, especially in the outfield. IF Dombrowski can sign both Price and Heyward, I would be thrilled.
start_wearing_purple
Every time Boston has tried to quick fix by signing big ticket FA over the last several years it’s been disastrous. The lessons of the past should be in finding the right players, not the most expensive.
Eric D.
But Heyward is one of the most well rounded players in the game, yet for some reason people consider him a prospect who never lived up to the hype, despite him only having one bad season (which was 5 years ago.) Also, he is entering his age 26 season, which is rare for a free agent. He isn’t over the hill like Sandoval and Ramirez were. I would have no qualms over giving Heyward a 7 year deal. As for Price, sure he may be 30, but he has proven himself quite capable of having multiple Cy Young quality seasons in the AL East. To me, he just doesn’t feel like a guy who would dramatically become bad after getting a big paycheck the way other Boston FA signings have. They already missed their chance with Lester, they should not let another ace get away.
Stonehands
Price and Heyward would be absurdly expensive. I agree on OF depth, but there are more reasonable options available.
Eric D.
Alex Gordon would be the only other option I would want, and I can’t see him parting ways with Kansas City.
Stonehands
He is a little expensive as well unless we offload salary
Draven Moss
I don’t exactly trust JBJ either, but I think they got to play him everyday unless they trade for another outfielder. The budget doesn’t really allow them to sign Heyward, unless they choose to ignore the free agent pitching market completely (in which case, is a bad year to do just that with the pitching available).
Eric D.
It’s Boston, somehow I have a hard time believing Budget is as big a concern as ownership makes it out to be. If they wasted 180 million on Sandoval and Ramirez, they can put 300 million on Price and Heyward. Even if they sign Heyward (or even another outfielder such as Alex Gordon) JBJ would likely still get significant playing time if Hanley is in fact going to switch to first.
Draven Moss
They have to play Castillo too. And right now, the Red Sox are very close to the luxury tax threshold. I honestly don’t think they will spend much more than 35MM on the free agent market (or in trades) this Winter unless they are fine with becoming the next version of the Dodgers and Yankees. Price is going to cost 30MM in AAV, and Heyward is going to be pretty close to that too. I don’t think there is a way they can sign both, unless somebody is going to take Ramirez and Sandoval off their hands, free of charge.
Eric D.
Cherington is no longer in control, I just feel frugal spending is a thing of the past with the new front office people. Not saying it’s good or bad, I just don’t think Henry will put the budget constraints on Dombrowski the way he did with Cherington.
Stonehands
Heyward and Price would cost near $400 mil, and maybe more if Heyward demands 9-10 years like he is capable of. If you want an outfielder, look at PArra, or Davis, maybe even JAckson in a platoon, not $100+mil candidates. Sign/trade for ace, somehow, some way dump Hanley, address bullpen.
Willy
Im not sure where you are getting your numbers from but the Red Sox are NOT that close to the luxury tax. They have apprx $50m to spend and that could and probably will increase with a couple of trades. I expect the full amount Dave can spend will be around $70m
Draven Moss
After looking at the numbers, my estimates are off as you’ve pointed out. With all options picked up, they are around 155MM in payroll with arbitration projections factored in according to baseball reference. I still don’t think they are going to blow by the luxury tax threshold however, so that probably leaves them with 45MM to spend, which does allow them more flexibility to sign another reliever or whatever.
rmullig2
It’s the perfect time to trade him. He had a great month when the pressure was off but has not shown anything during meaningful games. He’s like the basketball player at the end of the bench who can drain three pointers in garbage time but falls apart when the game is on the line. I think there might be a team that would give us something useful for him now but if he struggles again next year he is completely worthless.
Willy
Heyward is a good player but not exactly what the Sox need right now. Would you pay $16-$18m a yr for a guy who has so little power? They already did that for Sandoval, though they had very few choices compared to this years Outfield options. I would pass on Heyward, there are better options then him.
And you would NEVER platoon Shaw & Holt, they are both lefty hitters.
Eric D.
As for the bullpen, there’s no easy immediate fix and it’s going to be a work in progress for the next few seasons. There’s a lack of truly elite relief pitchers on the market unlike last season so unless Boston trades for a guy like Chapman, their bullpen is still going to be very below average next season.
mookiessnarl
So signing guys like Clippard, O’Day, Sipp, Bastardo, Soria wouldn’t be able to improve the pen to the point of respectability? Pick two and trade for a third, pair them with Koji and Taz and you’re looking at a pretty good bullpen. You don’t need Chapman or Kimbrel to have an above average bullpen. I’d rather have two of the other guys than one elite piece.
Eric D.
I thought I was clear in my post that Boston would need to sign several guys PLUS get Chapman (if possible) to have an elite pen? Anyway, I could see Boston getting one or two possibly, but that’s not enough for me. A good bullpen has at least 5 respectable pitchers. I have my questions about Koji’s age/health and Tazawa was actually pretty mediocre this season.
mookiessnarl
Not that I could see and I just read it three times. Koji’s age would only really enter into it if he was a power pitcher that relied on a big fastball. Two or three good pitchers would fix the bullpen. It’s not Chapman or below average. There is enough out there on the free agent market to fix a bad pen in one season. Astros did it last season with Gregerson and Neshek. Soria and O’Day are at least their quality probably better. Add a third good piece and you’re fine. No need to have a fatalist attitude that it would take years to fix it. It wouldn’t if it was done right.
Willy
I think you need to take another long look at the free agent list as there are a good number of quality Bullpen arms available this winter. As for the “truly elite”, what is that exactly? Wouldnt that guy be the Closer? Besides the free agent list there will be at min- 3 Closers available this winter via trade. The Red Sox can build a quality pen right away if the have the money to spend or the right prospects to deal, which they should have both.
Draven Moss
If I’m the Red Sox, here is my plan of attack for the offseason:
1) Sign David Price and Darren O’Day. The Red Sox need pitchers badly, and these guys are the best options for them. Price can be the leader of the staff, help the younger pitchers, and hopefully continue to be an ace for 3-4 years. If Price isn’t attainable, look into signing Zimmermann or Greinke, or finding an ace on the trade market. O’Day helps fix the back-end of the bullpen and gives Uehara and Tazawa much-needed rest.
2) Trade Sandoval. By trading Sandoval, they save a bit of cash in order to spend it on bigger needs. Holt can be the everyday 3rd basemen and if they so choose, they could get a guy like Juan Uribe to get some playtime there as well (allowing Holt to move around). Ramirez is another trade possibility, but I can see him rebounding offensively and the team could use his power in the lineup.
3) Explore the trade market. This means going hard after guys likes Tyson Ross, Craig Kimbrel, Yasiel Puig, etc. if they are made available. The team could use another impact starter, reliever, and outfielder, and they have the prospect resources to get deals done. I don’t think only adding an ace, a relief arm, and trading Sandoval (or whatever big contract) will fix this team. They will be forced to make trades involving major prospects if they want to set them up for success and not have any glaring weakness.
start_wearing_purple
1) I would be surprised if Price signs with the Sox, there’s already bad blood there. Also at this point I’m kinda expecting Toronto to do everything they can to keep him. Though I like the idea of O’Day, he’s got a good track history in AL East and unless he really wants to stay in Baltimore we could probably outbid them.
2) People keep bringing up Sandoval and Ramirez trades, but for who and to where is rarely brought up. I don’t know if Dombrowski has enough magic to pull off both trades since even eating money will require the Sox to take on risks in return.
3) I say put everything into a Sonny Gray trade if he’s available.
Draven Moss
I think if the Red Sox make the highest offer, Price would consider it. I don’t think Boston is his first choice, but I don’t think he is completely opposed to the idea of signing here.
I honestly don’t know how to trade Sandoval or Ramirez, but they have to at least try. I’m not expecting them to trade both, and I don’t think it would be a good decision to do so. If they eat half of Sandoval’s contract, I think some team might be willing to gamble on him. I also think it is quite possible they can get more WAR from a Holt + Uribe combo than Sandoval himself.
I’m all for trading for Sonny Gray, but I’m not expecting Beane to make him available. They can surely nag Beane with some tempting offers, but it might be better to look somewhere else (Carrasco, Ross, or maybe Quintana as examples) if the offer has to blow Beane out of the water.
Stonehands
Maybe a trade of Hanley and cash to the White Sox for Laroche? Both were not very good last year, but Laroche can atleast field and that opens a DH spot for Hanley. Dump Sandoval somewhere with cash and maybe a team like LAA bites? That opens up a position for Holt, fills 1B with a respectable defender who may be able to rebound at a lower cost, and some cash to throw at pitching, and maybe acquiring a power hitting OF/3B (whichever Holt doesn’t play)
Willy
Ummmm, No thanks!
bradthebluefish
If were the Dave Dombroski this is what I would do…
1) Sign an ace, preferably Greinke
2) Sign Daniel O’Day
2) Back-end pitchers like Wade Miley for bullpen arms
3) Try to move Sandoval in order to put Hanley Ramirez at 3B (a more natural position of his) and to gain a bullpen arm
4) Have a rotation of Holt, Shaw, and Ramirez for 3B/1B.
Lots of money will be spent and transferred, but the farm will not be touched, which will be great for mid-season additions if the team is contending.
Willy
No thanks
redsox239
Testing 1,2,3
Eric D.
People say trade Hanley and Sandoval, but how realistic is that? Is there any team willing to take him? The White Sox could use a third baseman, but they wont take him unless Boston eats most of the salary. I guess I could see Sandoval, cash, and maybe a mid level pitching prospect such as Trey Ball going to Chicago for Samardzija and a bullpen arm. But I’m not sure if that would even make sense for either team, I’m mostly just speculating.
Stonehands
Samardzija is a free agent.
Eric D.
Thought he had one more year left? Well if not I guess John Danks would also be an option. It would make less sense for Boston though, he wouldn’t be much of an upgrade over Porcello or Miley. I would love Sale, but he would cost at least Mookie Betts if not a lot more.
redsox239
Oh how I would love a Price-Sale 1-2…You’re right though it would probably cost Betts or Boegarts in that case we should go for Sonny Gray or Matt Harvey, and other names.
bruinsfan94 2
Red Sox are not trading Bogarts or Betts for anyone. Pitchers get hurt a lot more. A stud shortstop and CF are hard to come by. Also I’d rather have Sale then Harvey at this point.
unclemark52
Obviously, Ramirez and The Panda are major league baggage. Spring 2016 should tell us a lot with Pedro: if he shows up looking the same as he did at the end of the 2015 season, he’s essentially useless. And who would trade for him? Dump him onto a lower tier team cheaply? If he shows up 30lbs lighter and has a positive attitude (said to have been a problem in 15), and looks in shape, he might be ok, or at least have some trade value. I continue to be amazed by players paid MILLIONS OF DOLLARS who are out of shape. Cherington should have seen the size of Pedro before signing. Ramirez? Papi looed great after June 1, and looked ok in October, but….he’s old, Ramirez’ last hope.
redsox239
OK, here are my off-season moves..Just because this is fun to do
1. Sign David Price- Yes, he will be expensive, and yes he is not our biggest fan, but he is worth it. Break the bank for him, pay him whatever he wants.
2. Sign Darren O’day and or Joakim Soria- Solid bullpen addition(s) by free-agency
3. Trade for Craig Kimbrel or Aroldis Chapman
4. Trade for another TOR pitcher (not as necessary)- Maybe get Tyson Ross with Kimbrel, Carrasco, Harvey, Gray, Strasburg etc.
5. Attempt to find a taker for one of Hanley or Pablo
If you free up some money from Pablo or Hanley or if you trade away Buchholz you can make further moves
Who to trade for a reliever/starter?
– Manuel Margot or Rafael Devers
– Henry Owens or Brian Johnson
– Clay Buchholz or Wade Miley
– Jackie Bradley Jr.
– Javier Guerra
– Deven Marrero
etc.
Rotation:
1. David Price
2. Sonny Gray/Tyson Ross/Matt Harvey etc.
3. Eduardo Rodriguez
4. Rick Porcello
5. Wade Miley or Clay Buchholz (Buchholz obviously being higher in rotation if he is still around #3)
Insurance:
1. Brian Johnson
2. Steven Wright
Bullpen:
Joe Kelly
Craig Kimbrel
Koji Uehara
Junichi Tazawa
Darren O’day
Robbie Ross Jr.
etc.
Draven Moss
I like this one a lot. The only difference for me is that I probably wouldn’t trade for Kimbrel or Chapman (the addition of O’Day and Soria should be a good enough upgrade, so I’d rather go after guys with upside oppose to paying a ton for more proven options), and Buchholz would be in my rotation instead of Miley (I think both of them are tradeable, but I think they can get fairer value out of Miley as he should appeal to a lot more teams).
redsox239
Well, I think if we do end up getting Ross we should try to get Kimbrel with him. Its always nice to have a pretty certainly reliable arm in your bullpen. Uehara is still impressive, but he isn’t going to find the fountain of youth anytime soon, and its always a question of when he will break down. Tazawa is still solid, but his struggles later on this season is worrying, Robbie Ross Jr. is meh, Joe Kelly could end up being very good, but we don’t know if he will be like Wade Davis, but O’Day and Soria would probably be good. Kimbrel is not a requirement but I think we should still try to get him. We need as much good pitching as we can get.
itsmuddy
This is almost exactly my thoughts on best possible outcome dream. Would love those BP arms including Kimbrel or Chapman but I could live without them if we got the others.
I think my preferred trade options would be Sale/Grey/Quintana/Corrasco/Harvey. I was hoping Sox would target Ross/Kimbrel last year but I am steering a little away from Ross and towards others preferably.
ccrider
How can no one have mentioned signing Rich Hill for a couple million dollars? It seems like a no-brainer for me for a team that needs quality pitching.
Willy
This sentence should be corrected>> it’s probably unlikely << as that is the worst kind of English one can use. Sorry but its bad and may fall under the category of being a double negative.
icouldabenacontendah
Signing Hill would be a low-cost way to solidify the rotation, and another starter could be traded for strength elsewhere in the lineup. However, I am sure that after what he has accomplished, Hill would not sign as “depth” for the starting staff. He is sure to get good offers from other teams that would give him a clean shot to be a No. 4 or No. 5 starter. He loves pitching for his hometown Red Sox but is not going to shortchange himself.
jpuzzo96
Here are my offseason thoughts:
1. Sign David Price
2. Sign Darren O’Day
3. Trade Hanley, Ryan Hanigan, and a pitching prospect to either the Nationals for Stephen Strasburg, the Mets for Matt Harvey, or the White Sox for Chris Sale. Maybe even the Padres for James Shields or Tyson Ross.
These teams need either a shortstop, a third baseman, or catching depth, and Hanley plays better when he is at his natural position like Boegaerts. And this will allow Travis Shaw to play, who is a great left-handed power bat for the Sox and showed that towards the end of 2015
4. If one of these don’t work, maybe enter the bidding for Kenta Maeda
5. Trade Jackie Bradley, Wade Miley, Blake Swihart, and a few other prospects to the Rockies for CarGo.
6. Make some sort of package deal to trade for Aroldis Chapman or Craig Kimbrel, maybe Andrew Miller.
7. Possibly sign another reliever, maybe Ty Clippard
Rotation
1. Price
2. Strasburg/Harvey/Sale
3. Buchholz
4. E. Rodriguez
5. Henry Owens
Lineup
1. CF Betts
2. 2B Pedroia
3. DH Ortiz
4. RF CarGo
5. 3B Sandoval
6. SS Boegaerts
7. 1B Shaw
8. LF Castillo
9. C Vasquez
jpuzzo96
I messed up. Instead of Hanigan, add Buchholz to the CarGo deal.
Rotation
1. Price
2. Stasburg/Harvey/Sale etc.
3. Porcello
4. E. Rodriguez
5. Owens
Bullpen
Joe Kelly
Robbie Ross
Anthony Vavaro
Tazawa
Koji
Darren O’Day
Craig Kimbrel
aprogie
No
connorreed
In what world do you live in where Hanley Ramirez, Clay Buchholz, and a pitching prospect is enough for James Shields or Tyson Ross, let alone Harvey, Strasburg, or Sale?
Nobody wants Hanley. Multiple GM’s have said that they won’t take him even if he Boston hate half his salary.
Buchholz has failed to start more than eighteen games in five of the past eight seasons. And when he is pitching, he’s extremely inconsistent. He has posted a huge range of ERA’s during that span: 1.74, 2.33, 3.26, 3.48, 4.21, 4.56, 5.34, 6.75. He’s also on the wrong side of 30, and isn’t neccesarily cheap ($13M next year, $13.5M option the following year).
A pitching prospect – who? Based on the rest of your roster, it’s not going to a major leaguer like Owens. But Boston doesn’t have many arms in the minors. They won’t move Espinoza. That leaves Kopech or Ball. Both are very young, have a lot of question marks, and typically aren’t given a ceiling better than middle of the rotation.
If you offered that to one of those GM’s, they’d hang up immediately.
If you wanted Harvey, Alderson wouldn’t even pick up the phone unless Betts or Bogaerts was involved.
And if you think that group could get Sale, you’re insane! Chicago isn’t urgent to move him, the market is big considering most top free agents are signed and next year’s class isn’t very good, and the fact that Sale is one of the best pichers in baseball and has a ridiculously team-friendly contract.
Depending on who you pick, a potential package for Sale would probably need to include one player from each of these groups:
* Bogaerts, Betts, Swihart
* Rodriguez, Owens, Johnson
* JBJ, Barnes, Kelly
* Devers, Kopech, Marrero
* Ball, Longhi, Rei, Chavis, Travis, Rijo