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By Matt Swartz and Tim Dierkes | at
Email a copy of 'Projected Arbitration Salaries For 2016' to a friend
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Arjonn
Does the figure for Holland factor in his TJ surgery?
Tim Dierkes
No, just his stats. But that figure means he’s all but certain to be non-tendered.
dwhitt3
Why would they non-tender him and risk losing him to another team? I don’t think that will happen. His arbitration cost might go down, but he’ll definitely get signed
Twinsfan79
They’ll non tender him because no one is worth $12mm to do nothing but recover from TJ surgery. He was good before the injury but there’s no guarantee he’ll return to form. Most likely the team will seek a 2 year deal with a low salary for 2016 and a heavy incentive laden deal for 2017. With possibly an option year tacked on. But at any rate would cost far less than $12mm in wasted money.
disgruntledreader 2
In terms of Luebke’s inclusion under the Padres, would they actually be able to offer him arbitration after they buy out the option even if they wanted to?
And given that he’s going to again be rehabbing from surgery for at least a chunk of next year, once he’s bought out and, if necessary non-tendered, would they be able to sign him to a minor league deal, or would failing to offer him arbitration preclude that?
Tim Dierkes
Yes, they could tender him a contract through arbitration after declining his option. And they non-tender him they could indeed sign him to a minor league deal.
RedRooster
Realistically he’s going to be bought out of his option and non-tendered. Hope he stays with us on a minor league deal tho cuz the guy was simply electric before he got injured.
burgh_fan
Vance Worley should be on the Pirates list. Its unlikely they tender him but judging by the rest of the list I don’t think that really matters.
Tim Dierkes
I’ll look into that one.
Tim Dierkes
Worley is in now!
ilikebaseball 2
Wow, I guess I shoulda read the article yesterday probably explains why Shelby Miller is so low.
mrnatewalter
Corey Luebke is also on the 2015-16 Free Agents list on your site… can he be up for an option AND arbitration-eligible?
Tim Dierkes
We need to drop him from the free agent list! Thanks.
disgruntledreader 2
I hope your operators will be standing by to put him back on the list when he’s non-tendered!
disgruntledreader 2
Anyone want to call out some early favorites for non-tender candidates?
Tim Dierkes
Sure! Holland, Trumbo, Moss, Cishek, Hellickson, Axford, Valbuena, Chacin, Carter. Working on my list!
jfkooan
I’d put Craig Gentry, Felix Doubront, Ike Davis, and Evan Scribner as non-tender candidates.
Stuart Brown
I agree on Gentry, but Scribner is still exceptionally cheap and posted excellent peripherals outside of an extraordinarily high HR/FB%.
Stuart Brown
Ike Davis, Jordan Lyles, Domonic Brown, Neftali Feliz, Tyler Flowers, maybe Alexi Ogando and Felix Doubront.
seamaholic 2
No way on Jordan Lyles. Rockies aren’t giving away a plausible starting arm because of a couple million bucks!
mookiessnarl
Red Sox missing Josh Rutledge.
Tim Dierkes
Will get back to you on that one!
Tim Dierkes
Word is his service landed at 2.090, so he wouldn’t be eligible.
mookiessnarl
Really? I guess I should email Baseball Reference then because they’re the wrong ones on this one. Keep up the good work!
mrkinsm
How is BRef wrong? They don’t have the numbers through 2016 up yet.
sddew
Awesome job, guys! Always interesting to see these numbers! I imagine the players, especially the 1st year eligibles, flock to this to see what they might make!
Stuart Brown
Would Reddick and Walker be trade candidates given their potential salaries? Their salaries aren’t terrible for their skillsets, but they seem like they’d be expensive to keep for their current clubs and neither would seem to be QO material next season.
jneely77 2
Josh Harrison from the Pirates? Cot’s says that he’s in year 2 of arbitration. Did he sign an extension and I missed it?
Steve Adams
He did indeed sign an extension back in April:
mlbtraderumors.com/2015/04/pirates-extend-josh-har…
RedRooster
Non-tender candidates for the Padres are Cory Luebke and Will Middlebrooks, MAYBE Marc Rzepczynski.
Out of place Met fan
Harvey sets 1st year high water mark for SP. Donaldson resets the bar for year 2…?
I agree
ryan211
Well, I’m sure the As will rest easy knowing they’re not on the hook for Donaldson’s 12MM.
stormie
Certainly part of the reason why they traded him, and why I don`t think the arb process is helping teams like Oakland and Tampa keep their great players throughout their team control like it probably should. Donaldson wouldn`t have had nearly the same numbers playing for Oakland though, so I don`t think they would`ve ended up on the hook for $12mm this offseason. Either way, I doubt Beane is resting easy knowing he gave up the probable MVP for players that I think underwhelmed this year. The only silver lining is that Barreto looks like a stud, but he`s still a ways away.
RedRooster
Yeah, it must be hard having to pay the probable AL MVP $12m
baseball1010
You project Dodgers Joe Wieland to get less in arbirtation than next years minimum salary.
aff10
They said at the top that they’re using 508K as their projected league minimum, which is what they projected Wieland for.
baseball1010
Ok 2nd try. Wieland with the Dodgers has to be offered more than the arb number listed as that would be below the league minimum for 2016.
Tim Dierkes
We understand that the MLB minimum will go up a bit. We’re using $508K to represent an MLB min projection. If it goes up to $510K then that’s our Wieland projection.
Eric D.
I’d be tempted to non-tender every single Red Sox player… they’re all ineffective bullpen guys who are too expensive for AAA.
Twinsfan79
.
rrieders
There seem to be some issues with your projections. A lot of your pitchers are getting salaries that are way too high given the comps from previous years. See Tyson Ross, Andrew Cashner, Aroldys Chapman, John Axford, Jesse Chavez in particular. The salaries for those players need to be cut and/or your formula needs to be fixed.
rxbrgr
Jon Jay??
Backatitagain
How in the world can Mike Minor qualify for 5.6 Million in Arbitration when he didn’t even play last year. Should be maximum reduction of 20%, If not, how can any reduction ever be justified. If he gets a penny over $4.5 there is no justice in arbitration. He will probably sign a three year 15.0 million deal if he is smart, if not Braves should non-tender. He is an attitude problem anyway.
jays2015
Donalsdon is under contract for another 2 years how come he still have arbitration for 2016?