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By Tim Dierkes | at
Email a copy of '2017 MLB Free Agent Power Rankings' to a friend
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chesteraarthur
I like Strasburg, but 7/240 is 34+M/yr. That’s sounds insane to me for someone with his injury history and a short string of truly being what he was supposed to me. I don’t think i’d pay any pitcher that much money, but Strasburg also wouldn’t be my first choice.
dresses
bro you and i have same thoughts. I also like Strasburg and first choice either.
chieftoto
I agree with both of u.
jkim319
Yep yep yep
mrtplush
He will get it or close if he has an ace-like healthy season. He has youth on his side which will be huge for him.
ronnsnow
I’m not saying Cervelli doesn’t deserve 4/60, but a team would be foolish to make that kind of a commitment to a player who’s only had one healthy season out of 8.
No Soup For Yu!
Most of Cervelli’s injuries have been freak accidents. Collision at the plate during spring training that broke his hand, hit in the head by a pitch causing a concussion, foul ball off his shin, foul tip into his ribs while he was behind the plate. The main reason he hasn’t been injured with the Pirates is he’s just been luckier.
Thronson5
I hope after this season the Dodgers let Crawford walk. I’d actually keep Ethier around for spot starts along with Kike and SVS but I’d give most of the playing time next year to Thompson. Hope they don’t go out and spend on a big bat in free agency. They gotta lock up Jansen and would be rad if they put McCarthy in the pen, Wood in the pen and signed strausburg. I know that’s probably not gonna happen that would be a great staff if Ryu can stay healthy and Maeda stays consistent. Slide Kazmir to the fifth spot. Kershaw, Strausburg, Maeda, Ryu and Kazmir would make a sick 1-5. Think I need to make that happen on PS4 since it’ll never happen in real life haha
hojostache
I don’t think they sign Strausburg (at least at 7/$240), but that’d be a disgusting rotation. Maeda has impressed me. I think he’ll probably regress a bit, but solid signing for years to come.
CubsFanFrank
If the Cubs can scrape up enough leftover cash for Strasburg, that would be spectacular. Assuming he’s healthy enough.
Los Calcetines Rojos
so you want to pay what will end up being at least 180 million to Stras the off-season before you need to extend Arrieta? That’s one expensive rotation right there loaded with salary, age, and injury concerns
jackstigers 2
Let Arrieta walk. He will be 32 when contract begins.
Los Calcetines Rojos
Highly doubt Theo lets him leave. Casual Cubs fans would erupt with anger and would be calling for managements head if they let him walk after they handed out Heyward a contract that wasn’t needed for that team
chesteraarthur
Yes, because the way that the Theo regime has acted surely shows that they put the casual fan before intelligent baseball decisions.
AndThisGameBelongsToMySanDiegoPadres
Theo doesn’t have to let him leave. Arrieta has all the choice in the matter.
brushbackmlb
Cubs can afford both. They’ve been saving for the past few year and have got to be on of the higher revenue teams out there.
csamson11
If this were 2019 the Cubs would probably have real interest, so I’d expect any addition to their staff to be a young, controllable arm via trade.
Philliesfan4life
The Cubs should focus on extending Arrieta. if they wanted another pitcher they should just trade for one. I think Strasburg ends up with the dodgers or yankees.
chesteraarthur
Why should they focus on extending a guy that wants a contract that will run through his age 38 season?
Philliesfan4life
Arrieta is on an historic run, They need to keep him long term. they really don’t have a pitcher in the farm on his level yet. But they could always trade for another ace like sonny gray.
chesteraarthur
What does Jake Arrieta being on a “historical run” right now have to do with signing him to a foolishly long extension? Why do they need to keep him long term? You think he’ gonna be anywhere close to this good when he’s 38? No team has a pitcher in the farm on his level, so that’s a moot point. And finally, they do not need to trade for another ace, like sonny gray, because they have jake for this year and next year and have lester and can figure it out in 2 years when they need to.
I really don’t understand this idea that the cubs need to rush out and get some “third ace” for their staff
Philliesfan4life
I don’t think they need another ace like gray , Im just saying it would be nice to see but it won’t happen. I mean if they wanted another pitcher, could look at tyson ross or one of the pitchers on the indians not named kluber.
jkim319
I am a Cubs fan and struggle with the potential dead money @ ages 38-39 (years 6-7 after his 2nd arb year). I am hoping the Cubs-Arietta-Boras will agree to a ‘6’ or a ‘7’, where (1) is actually his last arb year. Still risky with Lester aging out at the same time, but I don’t want the Cubs being reckless with the money we do have (a la Boston).
Re Strasbourg, I don’t like his injury history at ‘any’ $20 mm price tag …
Tough call, but classic reason why young controllable starting pitching is so valuable …
Next 2-3 years is where the Cubs will start to see how well they can develop pitching. Doesn’t look like anything special coming up, but I still have my fingers crossed … (This is why theo/Jed get paid the big bucks)
Would
bartoloshomie
Age is just a number and Arrieta is a latebloomer. If I were a Cubs fan, I would be ecstatic if they were able to get him til then. If nothing else, hed be a solid veteran presence at the end of the rotation
AndThisGameBelongsToMySanDiegoPadres
The thing is the Cubs can’t “just extend” Arrieta. Baseball players are people, not baseball cards, and as people they have this funny thing called FREE WILL. Arrieta doesn’t have to take an extension if he doesn’t want to and there is no reason for him to forego free agency while being one of the best pitchers in baseball. Even if he likes it in Chicago it makes all the sense in the world to at least test the free agent market and see what other teams are offering. And I think his agent Scott Boras knows this.
statman
MLBTR really needs to examine a bit what kind of contracts they are advocating …
$18M AAV for Gomez??? Really??? Cleary a player in a severe decline and at 30 he’s not getting any younger/better.
Nice job in the Heyward hype … while the season is still young, his performance is even below what I expected based on his mediocre career line. ZERO home runs? Wow, I guess you must be looking at some way advanced defensive metrics to justify that contract, huh?
Reddick as your no. 4 prospective FA? Talk about mediocre.
Tim Dierkes
I’m not advocating anything. Players will sign for whatever the market will bear, we’re just trying to predict it for fun with the info we currently have.
I feel like I framed the Gomez situation in a neutral way, if you read the whole thing.
Doesn’t matter to me whether players justify their contracts.
Gogerty
Nice reply Tim, love the write up and the work you all do over there. Any chance of the mailbag coming back?
chesteraarthur
Yes, fangraphs defensive and bsr war are very, very, super secret advanced stats.
aff10
Other than Tim being a Cub fan, why would he care if Heyward justifies his contract? It’s not as if Epstein came to MLBTR, read an article on Heyward’s case for 200 million, and then pulled the trigger. I’m not in complete agreement with these figures either (have a hard time seeing 60 million for Cervelli, 100 for Bautista, or 240 for Strasburg), but your criticism was pretty bizarre- all these are are estimates of earning power
jkim319
I don’t know of any Cubs fans complaining about the return on heyward … He’s doing just what we need/want him to do… He was hitting .250 until July last year as well, no worries
brushbackmlb
Not that there’s any way he keeps up at this rate, but Mat Latos should be mentioned in the “free agents to be who are off to hot starts,” especially considering the thin pitching market next off season.
AndThisGameBelongsToMySanDiegoPadres
What about James Shields? He can opt out after this season and could possibly be the 2nd best SP available.
donniebaseball
The fact that Jordan Zimmermann had Tommy John surgery seemed to have reduced his earning power. I wonder how much impact having Tommy John surgery will have on strasburg’s earnings?
bartoloshomie
I actually think it didnt. He still got a substantial payday. He left the market very early and before the big guns like Greinke and Price signed. He would have been able to command more if he waited to sign
daveinmp
Gomez got burned by Scott Boras. He was on pace to become a FA after the 2013 season, when he would have commanded a lot more than the 4 year $28 million he got after the 2012 season. But Boras wanted to maximize the deal he got for Ellsbury who was hitting FA the same time as Gomez would have, so he sacrificed Gomez a year early to get the big publicity deal for Ellsbury.
As it looks now Gomez could be headed back to Milwaukee (where he stated he’d like to eventually return) in 2017 on a minor league deal or minimal short term contract.
BoldyMinnesota
I’m pretty sure there is a zero percent chance he signs a minor league deal. Worst case scenario he signs a 1 year deal for 5-10 million like Desmond did
jd396
Nick Cafardo reports that the Red Sox plan to sign all of them.
Just kidding.
At first glance it’s hard to keep my beverage from going into my nasal cavity when Cervelli is in the top 10… but he’s not the same guy he was on the Yankees bench. He’s turned into a pretty dang good catcher and that’s definitely a premium position. He is turning 31 which for a catcher is like turning 38. I’d personally be really hesitant to commit to four years at that price considering he’s right in catchers-start-to-fall-apart time.
bravesfan88
Don’t forget Cervelli, does not have the mileage that most starting ML catchers have at 31. He started out as a back-up, and he has missed several games due to what some people would call “freak” injuries.
I’m aware that I’m probably in the minority here, but I believe Cervelli will successfully play out his next contract, even at 4 or 5 years.
In terms of mileage, Cervelli at 31, I would equate his playing time to most catchers at their age 27-28 seasons. Which would easily give him another solid 4-5 years without hardly any decline.
Personally, I hope the Braves swoop in and sign Cervelli, until either Morales or Herbert are possibly ready to take over the reigns…
Cervelli has been a huge part of Pittsburghs’ pitchers success, and he does NOT get nearly enough credit for his ability to call a game behind the dish!!
With Atlanta having young guns like Wisler, Blair, Foltynewicz, Sims, Barker, Newcomb, Jenkins, Ellis, Gant, Hursh, Kinman, Roby. and Cabrera all either already at the show or coming up in the next season or two, a catcher like Cervelli would do absolute wonders for these young pitchers and he would help their growth tremendously!!
bravesfan88
Also, by the way, Atlanta’s depth of young pitchers is absolutely absurd!!
This list does not even include two of the most under rated SP prospects in baseball, Max Povse and Mike Soroka. Then add-in Kolby Allard, Max Fried, Touki Toussaint, Ricardo Sanchez, Rob Whalen, Zach Bird, AJ Minter, Josh Graham, Matt Withrow, Carlos Salazar, Ryan Clark, Chase Mullins-Johnson, Wes Parsons, Anthony Guardado, and a man who hasn’t allowed an earned run in over 11 IP from the pen in Evan Phillips…Just ridiculousness!!