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By Steve Adams | at
Email a copy of 'MLBTR Roundtable: Trading Drew Pomeranz' to a friend
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seamaholic 2
Completely with Tim here. I’ve seen a couple of his starts and he’s having a classic lucky stretch that isn’t likely to last much longer. It’s not just the low BABiP or the high BB’s, although those will absolutely catch up to him. It’s the fact that he’s an off-speed pitcher that will get figured out the 2nd the 3rd time he goes through the league. If I’m Preller I get what I can for him.
stl_cards16 2
So if you and Tim see this, you don’t think guys that get paid to evaluate baseball players do?
Which could lead us to Jeff’s point, which is where I’m at, I just don’t think teams will value him that highly. This isn’t the 90’s any more where a couple months of a shiny ERA makes you a good pitcher.
If it’s a solid return for a middle of the rotation starter, then pull the trigger. If not, might as well hold and see if he can increase his value.
rycm131
I’d trade him. They got him for nothing because they A’s weren’t smart enough to use him and instead relegated him to a bullpen guy. Cash in the chip as
aff10
I’m with Jeff on this one. For all of the reasons that are listed for why the Padres need to move him, I find it hard to believe that contending teams honestly believe that he’s cemented himself as a front-line, controllable stater. They should entertain offers no doubt, but I doubt they get a major package back just yet, so I’d probably hold him and hope he stays healthy and productive for the second half. If that happens, he could be the type of chip in the offseason that could really help to rebuild that farm system- no reason to risk selling low at the deadline IMO
Flatline
I completely agree with Steve, Jeff, Mark, and Charlie. Unless they give you the farm for this kid he is worth more to keep. His low cost means that even if the arm/shoulder/something else gives out they don’t lose much. His upside of establishing a more legit status as starter instead of starter that is made of glass means keeping him for now COULD mean exponentially more to his value and the team. His stats are weird but results are results. If the damn team would be consistent on offense he would have one hell of a record and even MORE interest from other teams. I’ve watched him all year….he is finally showing why he was a highly coveted young prospect. Keep him but listen to offers.
Gogerty
Guess it just truly depends on how soon SD expects to contend again.
Kayrall
The Padres really need to fill the farm with as many prospects as possible and should definitely cash in on Drew. To me it’s similar to the Teheran situation except for the fact that the Braves have a lot of great talent lined up to hit the majors within the next couple years whereas the Padres could keep him, he could continue his dominance, and they will still be mediocre.
thebighurt619
Padres should absolutely trade him, if the deal is worthwhile. He had an amazing 1st 2 months of the season, but he’s been hittable during June. Strike while the irons hot on his value. Could just be a bad month could be hitters are figuring him out who knows. But chances are more likely his value drops rather then increases from here over the next couple seasons. Sell high.
He’s 27, 1st real season he has put it together, cost controlled for a good amount of time, healthy, and posting great numbers with his curve.
halos101
I think it just depends on the offers. if you get a couple good prosper a for him, sell. If not, take him to the offseason. If he has a good second half, he could be worth quite a bit. Padres can’t afford to mess this up though
halos101
prospects*
alt2tab
I think it makes sense to trade him. It doesn’t look like the Padres are likely to receive much of a return for Cashner and I’d be surprised if they traded Tyson Ross this season since his value has fallen somewhat with injuries. They should take advantage of what should be a strong sellers market for pitching and sell high on what is likely to be an unsustainable string of success from Pomeranz.
davidcoonce74
I think with his lack of track record the haul won’t be terrific and I think his success isn’t terribly sustainable. However, given his age and cheap salary, I can see the Padres gambling on keeping him. God knows they have almost no pitching talent in the minors or anywhere, frankly. I don’t think we see Tyson Ross back on a mound this season and Cashner is too injury-prone and not particularly good. Unless some team gets crazy with a real prospect or several good ones I can see San Diego hanging onto Pomeranz.
If they deal him, then the honest issue becomes who pitches for them? I mean, i know it doesn’t matter to a bad team if they have bad starters, but I rremember this Padres team a few years ago running Jeff Suppan and Kip Wells and Jason marquis and Ross Ohlendorf out there to start. It’s not fun to watch baseball like that, just like it hasn’t been fun this year to watch Luis Perdomo and Colin Rea start games.
I’m still, as a Padres fan, skeptical of Preller’s ability to evaluate talent. He acquired a pitcher this spring, Dan Straily, for free and immediately released him. Straily’s not great by any means, but he’s better than almost anyone else starting games for the Padres. I’d much rater see a rotation that included Joe Ross, Zac Eflin, Matt Wisler, Straily and Pomeranz than the one they’re running out there currently. It’s not a winning rotation but it’s a lot more interesting than seeing Rea and Christian Friedrich on the mound.
Selkies
I completely agree with you. It just seems that Preller is always too willing to pull the trigger and dump guys too early.
Right now, San Diego has Wil Myers, Fernando Rodney, Tyson Ross and Drew Pomeranz as their only major league talents.
AndThisGameBelongsToMySanDiegoPadres
More like unwilling to pull the trigger and waits too long to dump guys (think Cashner, Ross)
therealryan
It’s very hard to try and time a market exactly and it’s no different with a volatile player like Pomeranz. Belichick believes it’s better to cut a player a year early than a year late or in this case, it’s better to trade Pomeranz a few months too early than a few months too late. I think the Padres would be better off getting 80% of his potential max value now, than waiting and missing his peak and then having to settle for 40-50% or less (potential injury) of his max.
Looking at Preller’s track record with players such as J-Upton, Cashner and Ross and I’m guessing the Padres hold him and get a low level lottery ticket type prospect at next years deadline.
chesteraarthur
Trade him if you get any decent offers. Pitchers are just injuries waiting to happen. They need look no further than Tyson Ross for a prime example of how holding onto a pitcher for too long can blow up on you
Gogerty
Sadly that is a good point Chester.
tennreed
This was going to be what I was going to mention, but I will take it a step further; for those of you that remember Tyson Ross also came to the Padres in a trade with Oakland and immediately put up better numbers in the NL, as pitcher’s often do. I think everyone knows how holding on to Ross has worked out thus far…additionally, the A’s did use Pom as a starter 2 years ago when they first acquired him…he did much the same as he has this year…in the first half of the season…second half he started to get lit up like a Christmas tree, hence the reason that he was used as a spot starter/long man out of the bullpen last season for Oakland…he may have finally turned a corner and will continue but if I’m the Padres I wouldn’t bank on it…especially after what happened with Ross…his value will likely never be higher than it is right now…Padres should take what they can get…
Phillies2017
Another name that could net them a little something_ Christian Friedrich. I’d shop him around too.
jd396
I’d trade him if another team is buying that he’s for real.
This isn’t quite the same as Philip Humber’s rise from oblivion in 2011 as Pomeranz has a sketchy track record instead of no track record at all like Humber… but that’s what comes to my mind here. Sell high.
petersdylan36
Well he just helped his stock more. 7 innings, 3 hit, 0ER, 1BB, 6SO, under 100 pitches. 2-3 at the plate, 1HR, 2RBI
I think he is someone to build around. They are already short with quality starting pitchers at the moment.
blackleather
Id rather they keep him. Ultimately, he’s not going to be “the ace” anyway…he’s a very effective #3 starter, ideally. And its not like they’re going to get a near-blue chip prospect, for him. He doesnt have a body of work to warrant a team giving up one of their best prospects for him. So, Preller may as well keep him.
SD has pitching falling out of the trees in their minor league system…but most of its, in rookie/A/AA ball, and 3 or more yrs away, unless one of those kids REALLY break out, and you cant bank on that.
bottom line, he’s way more effective than Cashner, Ross (obviously), and even Sheilds when he was in SD…so, why would you trade Drew, when the pitching you have in the big league rotation, is as unstable as it gets? For all we know, Luis Perdomo may turn out to be better than Drew, but he’s still learning on the job (has a 97 mph sinker, came right up from A ball, Rule 5 guy). And Vargas (incredible mound presence and command for a young guy, got him from the Yankees) who has been a very pleasant surprise, albeit injured for the time being, is another kid, learning on the job, with an upside that rivals Pomeranz.
those two guys, are the personification of not just whats coming in the Padres future…but they are getting the kind of OJT, that demands a team like SD to have solid veterans that they can learn from and who will stabalize their rotation for the time being.