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By Mark Polishuk | at
Email a copy of 'Forecasting The Free Agent Qualifying Offer Market' to a friend
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hooligan
With such a thin market, Hellickson would be a fool to accept a QO.
braves2
Eh, i see your logic, but if he declines and is tied to that draft pick it might devalue him slightly as he just had a breakout year. 16.7$ mil is no joke and to be able to get that much on a 1 yr deal might be a smart move.
DannyQ3913
I agree. Here in Philly everyone knows he doesn’t accept
terrymesmer
> Hellickson would be a fool to accept a QO.
But…Ian Desmond
crazy Jawa
I hope the Jays give one to Bautista. Cause nobody would take him. Then he would sit around till June 1. Then at least baseball would have one less jerk around to 2 months.
stl_cards16 2
Nothing like letting your hatred for someone you know nothing about lead you to making foolish claims on the internet!
strike4
He’s gotta be a STL Card fan…
BoldyMinnesota
There is no way Bautista isn’t on a team before June 1st, with a QO or not
MatthewBaltimore23
Yeah, Bautista is going to get signed by the Rangers so he can play shortstop, up the middle with his buddy Odor.
Ted
While I too see the slight chance of Bats accepting a QO, I think it’s more likely he declines and hits the market. At that point he WILL be signed, even if his only skill is good OBP, moderate power, and veteran leadership (you don’t like him but his teammates sure do). The only way hes a late signee is if he insists on some absurd valuation.
petersdylan36
So if Jon Jay can’t be traded by the end of the month and he puts up okay numbers in September, does he get a QO?
AndThisGameBelongsToMySanDiegoPadres
Preller won’t really have a choice. He has to either trade or QO Jay.
aff10
In general, I’m in agreement with your policy on trading anyone on a non-contending team, but giving a QO to Jon Jay just to save face on them not having traded him before his injury doesn’t make any sense whatsoever
EndinStealth
Very doubtful.
baseball10
Uhhh no
astros_fan_84
I think Fister should go in the lock category. A 3.60ish ERA in a weak pitching market? It’s a no brainer.
I also think Luis Valbuena is a serious possibility not on the list. The Astros have a lot of corner infield prospects, but he’d be a one year bandaid guarantee. I also think the Astros might do it to recoup the pick they were hoping to get from Carlos Gomez. Valbuena’s sept, if he gets healthy, will decide this.
poolerh
I don’t believe many, if any, teams would risk a draft pick for Valbuena. He’s had a good couple of months, but has never shown he can sustain it over a full season,. The Astros would be foolish to offer him $16MM for one year, because if I’m Valbuena, I’m asking “Where do I sign?”. Then, no draft pick, and Valbuena is blocking prospects from coming up. He won’t command that kind of salary on the open market, as Rasmus would not have last year. I believe the Astros would have traded Valbuena at the deadline had he not pulled that hamstring. He was their best, and probably only bargaining chip that would have gotten them any kind of return.
AcaciaStrain
Buyers set the market price, not sellers. Teams won’t be willing to cough up a draft pick and a multi year deal for Hellickson regardless of the market. They would likely just use their resources elsewhere at either another position or via a trade.
MatthewBaltimore23
Valbuena isn’t worth 17 mil
IBFarr
How much does everyone think Hellickson will get if he decides to reject the QO? I do not see why he would not accept it because I do not think he will receive offers more than 13-14 million a year MAX. I would only offer about 10 million maybe 12 million tops because of what he did this past year. Prior to this season he was an okay pitcher. Now, the market is thin, but teams will not just throw money at him because he is one of the few there, the only team that would do that is the Dodgers. I think he will continue the stretch of great pitching he is on for another 2, 3, and maybe 4 years, but not anywhere close to 16 million dollars worth.
aff10
I personally think that you made your case as to why Hellickson will reject the QO rather than accept it, if offered. First, a 3-4 year deal at $13-14 million annually is much better for a player than 1/$16.7 million. He doesn’t need to exceed the qualifying offer figure per year to make it a better offer, he just needs the overall guarantee to be substantially higher than $17 million. Second, if you truly believe that he will continue to produce at this level for the next 3-4 years, then you would have to be willing to offer a large sum to acquire him. In today’s baseball economy, 200 innings with a 3.65 ERA is certainly close to (it’s actually exceeding) being worth $16 million annually
Mop Ball
Volquez is also a possibility as he has a mutual option on his contract for next year. Definitely a candidate where QO possibility is make or break down the stretch.