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By Steve Adams | at
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nickbolts
O’s need a #1 starter
gomerhodge71
I think Baltimore will be a little more serious in the free agent market this winter. They see what Showalter can do with a decent roster (and “experts” predicting them for 4th place) so they’ll probably be a little more open to getting a top starter.
Steve Adams
There isn’t a No. 1 starter available in free agency this winter, and the O”s don’t really have the necessary top-end prospects to get one on the trade market.
dorfmac
Yeah, I don’t see the O’s making a splash on pitching. Are there even any top pitchers available for purchase this offseason? And even if there were, Baltimore would have to pay a premium to bring them to Camden Yards.
dimitriinla
If an ace is available, I say they go for it. Otherwise I can see Tillman, Gausman and Bundy, coupled with what we have as being solid, if not stellar.
bleacherbum
Tyson Ross will be available through trade most likely. He isn’t a 1 but could be a co #2 with Tillman. The Padres plan on giving him a couple starts before the season ends to show he is healthy & hopefully showcase him early for trades in the offseason.
joeflaccosunibrow
No money, no honey.
After the Brinks truck left Camden Yards, bound for C. Davis estate, there is no money for a top tier starter even if available. Machado is coming due for free agency and I bet 10yrs/250mill is only a starting point for negotiations.
The Orioles need cheap talent (rookies) to augment the big dollar players.
Ken M.
I could understand normalizing the home run rate of a pitcher with a couple of years of experience, but why on a pitcher with 8 starts?
Pineda? Yeah…. I could see that if you normalized his HR rate, he’d be a 3.40ERA pitcher because he’s done it before.
Steve Adams
xFIP and SIERA normalize homer-to-flyball rate to roughly the league average because, historically speaking, HR/FB can vary widely on a year-to-year basis but typically settles in between 9 and 11 percent.
Green’s homer-to-flyball rate is currently 25 percent, which is the eighth-highest single-season rate for a pitcher with at least 40 innings since batted ball tracking data became widely available back in 2002.
Put another way, even if he’s homer-prone, he’s not *this* homer-prone. xFIP and SIERA aim to level the playing field and isolate a pitcher’s skill set based on strikeouts, walks and grounders — the elements of their game that they can best control.