Email a copy of 'Finding The Nationals' Next Closer' to a friend
Loading ...
By Jeff Todd | at
Email a copy of 'Finding The Nationals' Next Closer' to a friend
MLB Trade Rumors is not affiliated with Major League Baseball, MLB or MLB.com
hide arrows scroll to top
tenman85
Thornburg plays for the Red Sox now though, doesnt he?
Jeff Todd
This was a typo. Fixed it.
downeysoft42
Yessire
thatmansaballoon
Thornburg plays for the Sox now
BillGiles
Hector Neris
Jeff Todd
For trade targets, I was mostly focused on guys with 9th inning experience. Guess he’s not wildly implausible, but I had to draw a line somewhere.
Jnoyola5
I’m thinking Holland
blovy8
Holland makes the most sense. They know how to rehab TJ pitchers, and while he’s regaining arm strength, Kelley is a decent 2nd guy.
Glover has hip issues, Solis had a hard time pitching back-to-back days, and really should either be a long guy or a starter. I’m still not totally sold on Treinen getting tough lefties out. Gott is nowhere near ready to even be in the pen if last year is any indicator.
lesterdnightfly
Of all the suspects, Rosenthal is the wild card (pun intended). Even when healthy, which is in doubt these days, he was/is no sure bet to lock down a win.
If I were a GM, I’d pass on him unless the Cards 86 him from the roster and I have a topnotch pitcher-reclamation staff. Even then, I’d aim at making him a serviceable setup guy, never a closer.
wiggysf
Jeffress?
Jeff Todd
Listed him.
staypuft
How about Armando Benitez
AlvaroEspinoza 2
Ghost of Rod Beck.
Friend of a friend who’s a scout saw him throwing in Iowa, says he still has something left in the tank.
staypuft
Lol oh man Rod Beck. That’s a name that I haven’t heard in a while. One of the best mustaches of the 90s. RIP shooter
BrodiesHairisGreezy!
I like their GM but I think he has outsmarted himself this year…The pressure of their coming up short seems to be getting to him with his moves this year.
KermitJagger
Surprised Tony Watson isn’t on the list.
Jeff Todd
Guess I could get on board with that. I’ll add him.
Really more of a strong lefty setup guy, but who knows. Could be part of a shared role.
KermitJagger
Yeah I’m not sure I even like him as the Pirates’ closer but he does have a little closer experience. The teams have been dealing/discussing a lot lately, I’d be surprised if his name hasn’t come up.
bucsfan
Yeah Watson and even Bastardo should be included, especially if there going to be idle speculation about people like Miller and betances.
Jeff Todd
Where is there idle speculation? I listed them as top-line closers whose teams would probably at least listen if the Nats decided they had to have a top arm. It is very mild analysis — not remotely suggesting that’s happening or will happen.
Also, I have no idea what that has to do with Watson and Bastardo.
unitedmets
The Nationals need to make a trade. The options on the market isn’t what a World Series contenders closer looks like. Maybe sign one as a setup man or a fill in just in case you can get a decent closer
Trade possibilities:
Nationals: Robertson Cash
White Sox: Andrew Stevenson, Pedro Serveino and Drew Ward
Nationals: Colome
Rays: Erick Freede, Andrew Stevenson, and Sheldon Neuse
Nationals: Kelvin Herrera
Royals: Joe Ross and Andrew Stevenson
blovy8
Not a deal with the Rays there – I think Colome is a flukey flash-in-the-pan closer. He hasn’t really faced any pressure. Herrera hasn’t even closed a full year, how is he better than Kelley? Robertson is about average for 12.5 mil, who wants that? Just try some guys out until you hit on one, it’ll end up being the same thing.
lonechicken
Totally agree. Just go internal and chances are, the sum of them all (if not one guy) will get the Nats 20 saves by mid-July. At that point, closers on bad teams will start to shake loose. It’ll be better than overpaying for Robertson right now.
SuperSinker
Colome saved games in the big leagues against the AL East. That’s a pressure cooker if there ever was one. And Kelvin Herrera is a highly capable reliever. Plenty of closers don’t start off as 9th inning guys. Heck David Robertson spent years being a bridge to Rivera.
masnhater
Robles, Fedde, and Gio for Zachary Britton
blovy8
Hilarious.
dcrising
Overpay 2.0
vtadave
Isn’t Britton a free agent after this year? Robles alone would be an overpay if that’s the case.
hojostache
Britton and Colome are pipedreams bc both players are with clubs who will ask for the moon. I’d love for WAS to overpay in trade for Robertson and have him flounder, but I think he’ll pitch pretty well this year…but a clear step down from the top 8-10 guys. Colome is too much of a crapshoot to risk top prospects on. He is a late bloomer and has 1 yr of experience….GL feeling comfortable trading premium prospects for him.
If WAS doesn’t trade for Robertson I can see them overpaying for Holland. Someone is going to bid up Holland’s contract…there are too many teams who showed interest for him not to get multiple offers now that the top RPs are off the board.
blovy8
No one will risk getting stuck with him except maybe the Marlins. I think if Holland goes higher than 8m a year in value, the Nats don’t do it, and either trade for damaged goods like Doolittle or try out guys like Feliz for cheaper..
impaler
If I were the Nationals I would sign Holland and trade for Robertson. This way you know you have a bonifide closer in Robertson and Holland can be setup to get himself back into the swing of things. Also think about that 7-9 innings with these 2 (if Holland can get back to where he was). Just nasty.
blovy8
Who is going to trade for Roberstson and his salary except the Nats at this point? I think the White Sox asked too much and now have to hope someone gets desperate in July. The guy is dead average at the job for way too much money.
mike156
No Papelbon….hmmm
drstevenbruhle
Between overpaying for Eaton and missing out on closers the Nats are having a pretty uneventful offseason.
Jeff Todd
You’d prefer they overpay for a closer?
blovy8
I like the Cameron article on fangraphs about this tradeoff. Basically, it’s a choice of how you are spending the money vs. value vs. future roster considerations – Eaton vs. Fowler. The Nats don’t have the money now, they keep deferring it, and it’s no sure thing the cable money will ever actually arrive. Fans will say the Lerners are rich, but the Detroit model for rich guys in sub-big three markets throwing money at the club is not encouraging, I guess the Marlins in past years are the exception. The Nats are at 150 million now even with the creative deals, I can’t imagine they’d go over 165 or so. They probably were willing to go there for Jansen, but then they’d likely have no money for a better 4th OF than the Heisey/Taylor/Goodwin group under control. I don’t think it’s a bad idea to have options in the ninth just as you would for the OF.
Steven P.
Robertson or Nate Jones on the White Sox could be good options for the Nationals
Hard to say what an agreeable return would be though
blovy8
Nate Jones could be, yeah.
Jeff Todd
Right. As he explained, it’s a roughly neutral value proposition if you decide you need a quality OFer. And if you have reasons to like/dislike all the various players further, as the Nats no doubt do, then it could easily shift either way. That’s true even if the White Sox truly like the young guys they’re getting, which is no doubt the case.
Basically, I don’t see this as remotely the equivalent of, say, the Shelby Miller deal. In that case, they weren’t a starter away, they overvalued him, and they under-valued the prospects. I doubt that’s what happened here with Rizzo.
Re MASN, it’s hard to know. They apparently didn’t feel much need to defer a lot of the Jansen offer, so I guess that could be seen as encouraging. They will get some kind of increase at some point, even if the O’s are delaying it. Don’t believe that Baltimore has any argument for no increase at all. But getting out from those limitations remains a major long-term issue for spending capacity.
Jeff Todd
He’s a stud, for sure. I don’t really see him as being available, barring a massive outlay, and was focused more on guys with substantial experience as closers — since that’s the idea here. Nats have good arms (albeit probably not that good), but none have closing experience.
knolln
would have thought if the nats were looking at profar and the rangers wanted joe ross, the inclusion of bush, dyson, jeffress would have made sense for both teams, although with nationals probably putting in a complimentary piece. that’s 3 big cost-controlled arms..
rangers would solve pitching hole and still have two of those 3 to pair with Barnette, kela, diekmann and Claudio, with sadzeck coming along.
and the nats would have filled two big needs without giving up the world, which is what they gave up to fill only 1 need.
Jeff Todd
Dyson wasn’t a closer til they put him there.
“The world” seems a bit hyperbolic, even if Giolito was still seen as the top pitching prospect in baseball. I guess there’s still a crowd that doesn’t appreciate all-around players, but Eaton has been a high-quality performer for some time and is a mid-prime player with cheap control. He’s a much, much more valuable piece than Profar given the evidence on record.
madmanTX
Really? Eaton isn’t a CF til they put him back there too and you have to believe that Profar is a better CF than Eaton was/will be, even after Profar’s short stint at that position. Value wise, I’ll agree that Eaton is worth more than Profar right now, though just not what the Nats paid to get him.
Jeff Todd
I think he is worth what they gave, assuming the team is right in its assessment that Giolito won’t be a frontline starter. I have no idea if Profar can play center.
Re the trade, basically I think what Dave Cameron wrote at Fangraphs, as someone else pointed out.
knolln
profar cannot play center. there’s no way. eaton is a middling centerfielder in a time that premier defense there seems to be everyone’s wish. but they can address that again when one of the corners leaves and eaton shifts.
I just thought, dang, they were sniffing at profar, and know what relievers we have. could have gotten them both and still have robles giolito and lopez. ross maybe has more immediate value, but is a ton lighter of a give up than those 3
Jeff Todd
As Cameron explained, there’s reason to think Eaton can be a good CF even though he didn’t rate well there before. Metrics are wonky. Who knows. I think it’s fair to expect he’ll be about average, maybe a smidge better.
knolln
oh no doubt, I value him very highly. and I think getting an outfielder to return trea to short is a better move. I do think they gave up a lot tho. i’m just saying if they were exploring profar before, it would have been a great time to plug two holes. and the rangers need to plug dire holes and they’re sitting on 4 big time relievers with like 18 years of control between them.
Jeff Todd
Hard to know how to read that Profar rumor — may be that they were willing to take a chance on him if the price just wasn’t too high. Your scenario seems reasonable enough in theory, though, depending upon how you value Ross. (I’m still not sure how the Nats really see him.)
Chris March
Washington : Robertson & cash
Chicago: Cole, Soto & Reetz
Jeff Todd
Call me crazy, but I don’t see Robertson bringing a return even that significant. It’s notable they didn’t just chuck him into the Eaton trade, but just not clear what other orgs will be after him with so many solid options left in free agency. (Maybe they’re hoping to bait Miami.)
blovy8
I’m beginning to think that was about the money. Robertson is getting Papelbon money and he should be a dump if the White Sox are dumping. At this point, as a Nats fan, I’d be happy with the Marlins wasting their resources on him. I imagine they have to hold onto him and hope his command/control numbers improve enough to move him for a B prospect.
Jeff Todd
Hard to know how Robertson impacted talks. Nats could’ve said they’d take the whole salary to limit the return in the deal. Or might’ve really wanted him and they decided to hold off on working on that deal. Shrug.
Scaed17
OK. You’re crazy.
Viable MLB closer merits more than a pkg of below Top 10 gambles, regardless of salary. Maybe not a lot more, but more indeed.
Jeff Todd
BA just listed Soto as the Nats’ 3rd best prospect: baseballamerica.com/minors/2017-washington-nationa…
And there’s still reason to think Cole is capable of being a solid enough MLB starter. They need the depth.
With Robertson’s salary and skyrocketing walks, guess I don’t quite see that as fair value. Depends on the $ ChiSox would keep I suppose.
Txlonghorn1
Texas:Profar Dyson and cash
Washington: Trea Turner
AzMike
Puhlease
Stromalama 2
Lol
dcrising
Good joke.
66TheNumberOfTheBest
Tony Watson and (insert prospect here) for Joe Ross.
What would that prospect’s name have to be?
blovy8
non-prospect Gerrit Cole?
bginther25
What do you think would be a realistic package for Rosenthal today, and how much better could it be at the deadline if he pitches well this season?
Jeff Todd
I’d say that’s basically impossible to say. So much variability. You could imagine the Cards saying, “eh, he’s done for,” and non-tendering him (though obv that didn’t happen). Or, “nah he could still be a stud and we want to keep the upside, so you’ll really have to pay up to get him.”
Likely somewhere in between, of course, but I don’t really have a guess as to where that is.
bginther25
Yeah, that’s my conclusion has been as well. Best case he bounces back and has a role similar to Miller, but not as effective obliviously, and worst case they just release him.
whereslou
What about Cisheck he pitched a lot better after coming off the DL with the hip and had surgery to repair it in the off season. I have not heard he won’t be ready for the season. He was pretty good until his injury then lost his job to a kid who is going to be great. You would think there would be some interest if he is truly going to be ready to start the season.
Jeff Todd
Well, I do think the hip surgery is an issue. Til he’s fully back in action I’m not sure I’d see him as an option. Otherwise, maybe at some point in the season?
whereslou
I guess that is fair. It would be interesting to see where he is in his rehab. I believe they think he is going to be fully back by ST. I would like to see them get rid of his and Smith’s salary and pick up a player that will hold more value for the team. A $10 mill set up man and a $7 mill bench bat make no sense. Smith is not the athletic OFer Dipoto says he wants. That is not what the article is about though. I just was wondering about Cisheck. Maybe if he pitches well in ST you see them move him or wait till the trade deadline? He could be a decent piece because we should still be in the playoff hunt. When do you think he would have more value? I know injuries play a role but is it worth the risk to hold onto him until the trade deadline if there is interest in ST?
jackiemays
Without Kenley Jansen, I see the Nationals giving a 4-year/80M figure to Encarnacion (with opt out in the first or second year).
Jeff Todd
Just nowhere for him to play unless Zimmerman is bumped to some kind of timeshare with Werth. That oughta go over well in the clubhouse!
jackiemays
He seems to be a really nice, character guy and once were a great player. But Zimmemann contract seems to be terribly really awful now. Hope that he recovers or it’s a shame if it he blows a possible EE deal.
slider32
Yes, Werth and Zimmerman are the 2 highest paid Nats and they have under performed. I’m not sure the Nats can get a top caliper closer at this point, I think Ziegler is their best option, he isn’t a hard thrower but he knows how to pitch. I do like Glover when he gets some more experience.
virginiascopist
I agree. Ziegler is a good option, and I believe Glover will be the closer of the future — just probably not in 2017.
blovy8
Have you heard of a couple of guys named Scherzer and Strasburg? Zimmerman is making the salary of an average regular. His talent level is still better than that even if his health is different, it’s not much worse than taking a shot on guys like McCutchen.
RunDMC
Honestly, I’m loving this position for the Nats in that it’s a terrible position to be in. An expensive team with high-end arms and little depth in the ‘pen with no sure-fire closer. I don’t know how they didn’t put more focus on this before now so they didn’t have to overpay for an option that might not be sure-fire. Now BOS has a few closers, including one of the best ever (Kimbrel), not to mention their young live arms coming up.
Would also be hilarious to see WSH come calling ATL for anyone, let alone Vizcaino. I’d love to be a fly on the wall for that conversation.
Jeff Todd
Eh, there are a lot of good arms out there and there’s still plenty of talent in the pen. It was a good unit last year and all the key pieces are still there. Closer was the one question, and still needs answering, but I don’t see why they can’t fill it out and have a strong relief corps again.
Re Viz, I think the Braves are rational and do what they think is best for their org. Wouldn’t expect a deal there, though, certainly.
RunDMC
Viz: So many reasons why they wouldn’t besides him going to WSH. His stock is low right now and still injury concerns.
All in all, WSH will be fine. I just like to see the Prom Queen that is the Nationals without a date.
Jeff Todd
I agree it’s unlikely Viz gets traded this winter.
lesterdnightfly
Kimbrel’s effectiveness numbers are steadily deteriorating. I’d pass on him. Boston may need a new closer by July themselves.
kodiak920
Holland is the best option. The others can hold down the fort if he isn’t ready in the beginning. At this point, though, it is probably best to wait until July and pick up someone like they did the past two years.
dcrising
The Nats should sign both Holland and Ziegler. Both would come out to a combined number around what Jansen will get yearly. Both have extensive closing experience. Start Holland in the role first with Ziegler as a fallback. Maybe give both 2 years in order to groom Glover into the long-term option.
slider32
Perfect, I agree!
fs54
What about Lopez/Rivero/Giolito as options?
impaler
2 of those 3 options are no longer on the Nats.
Jeff Todd
3/3, actually. I guess it was intended for LOLZ.
staypuft
Serious question: how often do teams that expect to make the playoffs and content for a WS title experiment with the closer role like you just suggested?
mdbaseball05
I can’t imagine it’s that many. I feel like that should have been the Nats #1 focus, especially after losing out on Melancon. I can’t believe they built this team and traded for Eaton without addressing closer first. Obviously, they won’t be the Giants of last year with their closer, but with them you saw what happens when you can’t close out games. I still see them signing someone like Holland or using Kelley, but man, they blew that.
Jeff Todd
Eaton is more valuable than any closer in baseball, FWIW. And acquiring him — with his cheap salary — made it possible to make a real run at Jansen, which they did. Not sure why the ordering would matter.
SuperSinker
Bobby Jenks was a rookie in 2005, Wainwright was a rookie when they won the first time, Francisco Rodriguez was a rookie. Happens a lot. Relievers are volatile.
McGlynnandjuice
Josh Osich for Bryce Harper. Solved both teams problems. Get it done.
jd396
Shawn Kelley currently has a 18.7 K/9 rate in my OOTP game.
diehardcubsfan
How would this trade be?:
Nationals get:
-Tony Watson
-Andrew McCutchen
Pirates get:
-Jason Werth (To teach young up and coming pirates outfield prospects)
-Victor Robles (#10 prospect in league and #3 outfield prospect)
-Erik Fedde (#75 prospect in league)
-Tanner Roark
-Joe Ross
redsfan101
The Nats would never agree to this trade. They would be giving up their outfield future, 2/5 of their rotation, a nice prospect and Werth for a setup man and a rental 31 yo CF
66TheNumberOfTheBest
The Pirates would would literally sprint to the phone to make that trade call.
mdbaseball05
Yeah, that’s way too much on the Nats end and creates too many more holes. You would be giving up their #4 and #5 starter on their current rotation, plus their other OFer and also the #10 prospect in the game.
reddpoint
This is the dumbest trade proposal I’ve seen in a long time
The Oregonian
Holland to the Nationals, Ziegler to to either the Rockies or D’Backs, would be my guess.
nailz#4life
Pap. They let him go to soon
mdbaseball05
I’d say sign Holland and Storen. Really, I wonder what Storen would be today if they hadn’t traded for Papelbon.
dshires4
Didn’t feel like trolling through the comments to see if he was listed, but what about Cishek? We have Diaz firmly in control of that closer role now so he’s fairly expendable.
Jeff Todd
Addressed that. Need to see him back from surgery before I’d buy that idea.
HarveyD82
Watson is better suited for set up