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By Jeff Todd and charliewilmoth | at
Email a copy of 'Exploring January Free Agent Signings' to a friend
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jayceincase
When a home run leader like Trumbo is left as a free agent in January, that just tells me that analytics is alive and well. What was progressive ten year ago is now a mainstream way of analyzing value.
kbarr888
I think Trumbo’s issue is his price compared to similar players.
Trumbo (30 yrs old) wants $75 million over 4 years, and you forfeit a pick.
Chris Carter (30 yrs old) can probably be had for about than 1/2 of that (4/38 estimated), and he hit 41 HR’s….and had a similar slash line. (no pick)
Todd Frazier (30 yrs old) hit 40 HR’s and is a much better defensive player, Strikes out less, and is on the trade block, with an Arb salary that will probably be in the $10 mil/1 yr range. (no pick)
Napoli is similar to Carter with fewer HR’s………(no pick)
Moss is also similar with fewer HR’s than Napoli (but 150 fewer AB’s), but can play the OF……..again…….looking at $10 mil/yr……..not 4/75 (no pick)
I think if Trumbo would accept 4/60-65….(and he should)……he’d be signed by Baltimore already. They’ve “pulled their offer”, but they said that last winter with Davis, only to sign him anyway. The question is…………”Is Trumbo TWICE as good as those other players???
Steve Adams
Agreed with a lot of what you wrote, but there’s no way Carter gets that contract. I doubt he even gets a multi-year deal. The Brewers couldn’t find a taker when he was projected to make $8-9MM on a one-year deal. He’ll sign for 1/5 or maybe 2/10, but he can be had at a much smaller fraction of Trumbo’s asking price than half.
Dock_Elvis
What’s stopped the Rockies from snatching Carter at that price, and freeing Desmond so they can make another move for a starting pitcher? Trumbo also only really makes sense back in Baltimore or Colorado.
CursedRangers
Carter reminds me of Chris Davis when he was with the Rangers. It’s funny how there is such a fine line between getting a “low dollar” contract versus a “break the bank contract”. Davis is clearly a better player than Carter, not even a question about that. But Chris Davis performance 2 years ago is not much different than Carters from last year. One player will be rich, the other player’s great grandkids will be rich.
wiggysf
Well, they’ll all end up as rich millionaires anyway. It’s all perspective.
kbarr888
Sorry guys……I wasn’t clear about Carter. I should have referenced it as a AAV instead of a 4 year term. I was merely trying to identify that……IF Carter signed for 4 years, that it would be for about 1/2 of what Trumbo wants per year. My bad.
I agree that he won’t get a 4/38 deal……….I was just using that for comparison.
TheAdrianBeltre
Carter will be arbitration available next season too, so I’d guess he is signed to a one year deal since it would essentially come with a team option for next season anyway. I’d imagine he and his agent are hoping to get that last arbitration year guaranteed(and not at full price I bet) but I personally don’t see it happening. And in this market, especially after Encarnacion only got three years and almost settled for two, I see no chance of him obtaining a four year contract. I wouldn’t mind Carter and Moss on the Rangers though(worked out for the Vikings).
ernestofigueroa87
SKOL!!!!!
jdgoat
Now is when teams have to be very cautious. This list is full of albatrosses and declining players. Hell, last year only two of the 11 (cespedes and Kennedy) provided enough value for the money they got. And even then, Kennedy will likely break down and have his contract look awful by the end of it. Everyone else was mediocre or below average or way overpaid like upton and Davis
kbarr888
Chris Carter was actually one of the best “Value Buys” last winter at $2.5 mil/1 yr……
He’ll be seeking somewhere around $8-10 million/yr, and the Rockies should be all over this guy instead of Trumbo………they have enough OF’s already, and Carter might hit 50 playing 1/2 his games at Coors!
Brixton
If the Rockies signed Carter, they’d have like 5 starting outfielders (assuming Desmond moves to the outfield)
Dock_Elvis
Signing Carter would in my mind have to trigger a deal for a starting pitcher. Wanting to get something done and getting it done are two different things of course….but the Rockies could theoretically add Desmond, Chris Carter, Greg Holland and trade for a starter in the Quintana/Chris Archer mold. I dont like that money locked up on Trumbo. Its time to make a move to bolster the starting staff. In many ways I like Sergio Ramos a bit more for the Rockies pen than Holland. His velocity off the bat is solid. I just can’t believe it’s their intention to punt the #11 pick and only add Desmond.
Dock_Elvis
Meant Romo…brain slip
ronnsnow
Dahl for Sonny Gray
Dock_Elvis
Ronnsnow–that’s intriguing. I do like Sonny Gray for the Rockies. Couple eggs crack and both sides get what they need. A’s have a righty reliever you think they’d package?
Dock_Elvis
I suppose the A’s could package Axford in the deal with Sonny Gray.
davbee
Carter was good value at $2.5 million, but he was only a 1 WAR player. Push that salary to $8-$10 million and he’s fairly fungible.
Dock_Elvis
Guys like Carter are frustrating to watch bat. For all the homers…there are so many times they’ll leave runners in scoring position when simple contact would have scored a run. Sure wish it’d be possible to cut 10 homers off for a 30 point uptick in obp
CursedRangers
Totally agree. When I was reading the list of past FA signings I was struck with how many of the players I wouldn’t want on my team going into next year. The past signings are littered with albatross contracts, underperforming players, or injuries. Sure there are a few great players on the list (Beltre as one example). However those are the exception rather than the norm. Free agency tends to get a ton of positive applause from the fans when their team signs a ‘big name’. But 2-3 years later those same fans are often clamoring for those players to be traded. Free agency almost seems the worst way to go these days. There always seems to be a sucker of a team willing to drop big bucks for a players who are past their prime.
bmore12
IMO Saunders and pagan would be great fits in Baltimore. Saunders can dh against rhp because of his poor defensive metrics. He could probably be had for about 2/20. Pagan would be a great fit in right field to supply some much needed obp to our power heavy lineup. He can probably be signed for a minimal amount like 1/7 or 2/12. Both can hit from the left side which helps balance out our right handed heavy lineup.
ASapsFables
Of course, there were a couple of higher rated free agents who also signed in February last offseason for significantly less dollars and years than originally projected…Ian Desmond and Dexter Fowler. One reason was the stigma of their qualifying offers. Another might have been less than favorable advanced metrics, especially from a defensive standpoint. A third reason was the sheer volume of talented players in last year’s market and they happened to be the last of that group who were left standing without a chair when the money music stopped playing.
Dock_Elvis
I was under the impression that a QO couldn’t effect a player in consecutive seasons. How did Desmond get hit with it again?
gomer33
Under the old CBA not now. Both those QOs came under the old agreement.
Brixton
Phillies should sign Boone Logan, Colby Rasmus, and perhaps Utley if he would want to come back as a utility infielder to finish his career.
Dock_Elvis
Greg Holland would seem to be a great option for the Phillies as well.
Mark 20
Hey brixton, question for you. Im obviously a blue jays fan but always had a special place in my heart for the phillies due to halladay going there. What direction are they headed for in their rebuild? Can you give me some information about how the roster/prospects are shaping up?
babyk79
The process it’s good news to take to get trumbo the Orioles should plug Carter into the dh spot, and add Jennings/Jackson to platoon with colby Rasmus in the OF. Heck they might still have money left over to add brandon Moss to platoon with Carter, the only problem being that some other teams may offer more playing time.
babyk79
Prices it’s going to take** to get trumbo
Lanidrac
Go back one more year to 2010, and you have that offseason’s top free agent Matt Holliday resigning with the Cardinals for $120M over 7 years in early January.