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By Mark Polishuk | at
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jimmertee
I like the effort put in by the Jays over the winter, but I don’t think it will be good enough. Morales will be good, Pearce okay. Howell might get knocked out of Rogers Centre by Hr’s and Smith will be a spare part hopefully not too much on the downside of his career. That leaves Salty who stunk in all departments last year, so that means he hits a bomb or strikes out. Smoak will hit 220 with 20 bombs and tons of men left on base. Pilar will be his awesome self as will Bautista. Latos will start the year in AAA as will Gavin Floyd. Sanchez will be awesome, Stroman when not blowing up, very good; Happ will take a step back; I hear Estrada’s back is putty and that leaves Liriano who shows up every other year. Barring a big trade, or a few surprise pitchers stepping up, I think that this team will be 10 games out by the trade deadline and end up out of the playoffs barely in 3rd place.
jdgoat
I’d highly doubt they fall that far. Estradas back seems to be fine now and hopefully some of the young bullpen arms can produce like biagini did last year. Happ wont win 20 games again but he’ll likely be good for another sub 3.00 ERA. As for liriano, if spring training is any indication, this is going to be one of his good years. His stuff is nasty. I think as it stands right now they should be the favourites to finish second in the division although I could realistically see any of the non Boston teams ranging from a low 70 win total to mid 90’s. And even Boston isn’t guarenteed to run away with the division with their injury questions and young offense.
chesteraarthur
Happ hasn’t put up a sub 3.00 ERA season since 2009, why is it likely that he does that next year?
jimmertee
He won’t, more like 4,30.
jdgoat
Lol I meant to say 3.30-3.60, but he’s going to be a lot closer to a 3 era then a 4.30.
filthyrich
After correcting the ERA number, I’m more in line to agree with JDGoats post. Pretty much every word. On point.
cxcx
“Still, hoping on unproven commodities like Tellez, Pompey or Ceciliani underscores the lack of left-handed hitting options on Toronto’s roster.”
Tellez’s full name might make sense here since it’s the first time you mention him in the post.
filthyrich
And a name like Rowdy needs to be mentioned whenever possible.
terrymesmer
If Kyle Kendrick makes the Boston rotation, the Jays win the AL East and next year retire Kendrick’s number.
George
The task: a) replace 8 quality free agents on a team that played in the ALCS last year, and b) do it without giving up any prospects. Anytime you change out 1/3 of your team, there will be questions, but the holes have been filled, and the team should be at least competitive.
One unknown is the Shapiro effect. So far, they have been very good at finding undervalued pieces and have them perform beyond expectation. Grilli, Benoit, Biagini, and Liriano are good examples. This year, players like Morales and Pearce will be playing in hitters’ ballparks, and the new pitchers have very good defense behind them and will be throwing to one of the best catchers in baseball. I expect them to at least meet their career stats.
filthyrich
Very well said George!
bfolls
They essentially gave up a late 20’s draft pick to sign a 1 WAR player to a 1 year/18 million contract. And their bullpen falls off pretty fast after Osuna
terrymesmer
José’s projections are between 2.5 and 3.1 WAR.
jimmertee
Many believe that the Jays management were told to sign Bautista by the Rogers Board of Directors. Bautista will be okay, 25 bombs, .250 av, 80 RBIs lotsa runs scored and below average defence.
filthyrich
Why did they wait until every other OF signed then?? Bautista signing was a scramble, didn’t seem planned at all. .
Down the stretch and so far this year, Bautista seems healthy. If he can stay healthy, he should have an .800 OPS. Those projections above with 100 BB and 25 2B included would be a solid year. For around the price of the qualifying offer.
When Saunders signed, the Jays went for Bautista is how I look at it. Something like: “Can’t let all the FA leave, gotta bring one back right? We can spin the Captain Canada angle or the Joey Bats angle at the fans…. oops Saunders signed, hurry and sign Bautista for some marketability.”
Shapiro probably preferred the pick and payroll flexibility without Bautista but Rogers wanted a name brand signing. I could see that. I have doubts that it had to be Bautista based on how long they waited. I also could see that they realized the original budget they gave him was too low (no pun intended) and backtracked allowing the added payroll as long as it was spent on the only marketable bat remaining- Bautista.
Speculating could be way off base, but that’s how I was seeing things unfold this offseason on the Bautista front.
filthyrich
Bang for the buck, this was a pretty impressive offseason in my opinion.
Compared to last year at this time, the rotation looks slightly improved, bullpen similar, offense slightly downgraded, defense similar. Survived some major turnover without sacrificing the farm or committing too much longterm dollars.
Offense could come near last year if things fall right.
A lot went wrong last year.
Decent health from Travis will be the big key.
Tulo and Martin right behind.
Another year of familiarity with the AL and Rogers could help for Tulo.
Ability to rest some dings rather than play and avoid the Thole effect could help for Martin.
Pillar had a down year at the plate, so did Bautista, both could return to form.
Donaldson was down considering the bar he set. He could bounce back to MVP form.
Morales could love it in a hitter’s park.
Pearce could stay healthy and hit.
I’ve previously stated many points in Smoak’s favour but I truly believe he will be average given regular ABs.
Lack of lefty bats vs RHP won’t be a lot worse than last year. Donaldson, Bautista, Travis, Pearce were solid last year. Tulo, Martin, Morales and Smoak were average. Pillar the weak link but worth it. Nothing exciting but enough to win with this staff if the bullpen can hold up..
Against LHP, Donaldson, Bautista, Travis, Pearce, Tulo, Martin, Morales, Upton have all shown solid flashes within last 2 years. Pillar is probably weak link again. Even Barney, Carrera, Smoak have had their moments vs LHP in last 2 years. Tough lineup vs LHP this year is my feeling.
Rotation depth is hardly worrisome. Scrapheap signing, early callup, or low risk trade depending where the team is at if/when injury strikes. For now, Stroman looks like an ace this year. Sanchez looked like an ace last year and looks similar right now. Liriano looks unreal. Happ and Estrada have been quieting doubts for over a year now. They can be topnotch 4/5 guys if Liriano’s gonna be number 3 caliber. Reidfoley could survive a 15day stint if someone gets hurt, Greene looked like he might be worth a wild card shot if it gets desperate. Anything over 30 days lost in this rotation will require some magic I’d say. At least 20 other teams in the same boat so it doesn’t worry me one bit.
Osuna or bust in the bullpen. Grilli was grabbed for nothing and Biagini too. Smith and Howell are scrapheap signings for sure. Osuna gets scary at times too. It could all crumble. Or they’ll make it work again. Don’t bet against the Russell Martin magic. The GM will churn as required. Storen and Chavez were bombs last year, but both were subbed out for solid finds. Floyd surprised early last year, and one of Smith/Howell could do the same. Hoping Loup remembers pitching, or that Barnes keeps developing. Howell could be the main lefty but that’s due to lack of alternatives.
C, SS, CF are top notch gloves. What more do you need? 3B and the likely 1B aren’t too shabby either. 2B has some flashy potential.
And the farm keeps getting better!!!
5 Jays in the BA top 100 last I checked. Guerrero, Gurriel Tellez and Alford all rising stocks.
4 on the MLB list. Guerrero, Reidfoley, Alford all rising stocks there.
Urena on the edge with MLB and not even on BA.
Tellez and Gurriel not getting the MLB love yet.
6 prospects of note is exciting.
All for now, go Jays!
jimmertee
Always love your optimism. But lots of those maybes and might bes are going to stink the place out this year.. Please stop saying Smoak can hit with more AB’s, the reverse is likely to happen. As a former amateur pitching coach/manager/GM we could get this guy out in most AB’s by booking him-high/inside then low and away and only soft stuff off in the strike zone off fastballs . There are a lot of good to very good and one or two great players on the Jays 2017 roster. I love the Morales signing. Depth of starting pitching is going to be an issue, with even Str and Sanchez as stars, and what that they have already will not fill quality innings. I know Jays mgmt worked very hard to fill-out the roster but that notion is irrelevant. Barring any changes this team will be 10 games out by trading deadline and sellers.,