The Blue Jays enter the summer as one of the most fascinating teams to monitor ahead of next month’s trade deadline. Sitting with a disappointing 29-32 record that has them in the AL East cellar, Toronto could upend the trade market if names like Bo Bichette, Vladimir Guerrero Jr., Danny Jansen, Chris Bassitt, Yusei Kikuchi and others eventually are made available to contending teams. They’ve not yet reached the point where that’s under consideration, however. GM Ross Atkins recently went on record to quash such rumblings, stating that it “doesn’t make any sense” for the Jays to consider moving Bichette and/or Guerrero.
There’s some logic behind that sentiment, to be sure. The Jays may be buried with a 14-game deficit in the division, but they’re also only four games back of the third AL Wild Card spot at the moment. That’s despite the fact that key bats like Bichette, Guerrero, George Springer and offseason signee Justin Turner have underperformed. (Turner had a blistering April but fell into perhaps the worst slump of his career in May.) It hasn’t manifested yet, but the talent is certainly there for the Jays’ offense to go on a run and surge back into the playoff picture.
Any fans hoping for a proactive trade to boost the offense or an early waving of the white flag appear to be in for a letdown, however. ESPN’s Jeff Passan reports that the Jays aren’t planning to make any firm calls on their deadline approach until after the All-Star break.
Some could read that as an indication that if the Jays’ standing in the Wild Card race dramatically falls off, perhaps they’ll reconsider moving Bichette and/or Guerrero. While there are few absolutes in the game — the Nationals famously traded Juan Soto less than two months after GM Mike Rizzo publicly proclaimed he would not do so, for instance — the overwhelming majority of instances where an executive goes on record to publicly downplay such a possibility tend to play out just as the GM or president in question indicates. That said, with Jansen, Kikuchi, Bassitt, Isiah Kiner-Falefa, Yimi Garcia, Kevin Kiermaier and others all signed/controlled only through this season or next, the Jays would still have plenty of attractive trade chips if they do end up as sellers.
That All-Star break target for a final call gives the current roster about six weeks to right the ship and prove that there is indeed a playoff-caliber club here — as was the general expectation heading into the season. The Jays are already getting creative in ways to change up their defensive alignment in an effort to get more bats in the lineup, giving Guerrero some starts at third base for the first time since 2019. It’s not an everyday arrangement, but manager John Schneider has suggested Guerrero could play there every five or six games or so, giving Toronto an avenue to have Guerrero and Justin Turner at the corners with both Jansen and Alejandro Kirk in the lineup (one at DH, the other at catcher).
Some may wonder why the Jays don’t simply play Turner at third base with more regularity, given that it’s been his primary position in an excellent big league career. But the 39-year-old Turner has made 11 starts at the hot corner between Boston and Toronto over the past two seasons and committed a glaring five errors in that time. While Guerrero isn’t going to provide plus defense himself, it seems the Jays prefer him to Turner from a defensive standpoint. Turner hasn’t played third base for the Jays since May 7.
Moving Guerrero to third base on occasion isn’t the only defensive shuffle that could be on the horizon, though. Sportsnet’s Ben Nicholson-Smith points out that Toronto has begun getting first baseman Spencer Horwitz reps at second base down in Triple-A and could soon look to him as a second base option at the big league level. Horwitz has now made 11 starts and tallied 87 innings at the position. It’s not an overwhelming amount of experience, but with Horwitz boasting an outrageous .332/.455/.510 slash in 255 plate appearances at the Triple-A level, the Jays are understandably seeking more ways to get him into the lineup.
The added flexibility will give Schneider some more ways to creatively construct his lineup. The ostensibly looming promotion of Horwitz will require Toronto to jettison one position player from the roster, and Toronto has a number of underperforming options to consider. Daniel Vogelbach has been limited to DH against right-handed pitching and managed only a .203/.282/.328 slash on the season. The aforementioned Kiermaier is hitting only .202/.254/.303, though he remains an elite outfield defender. Cavan Biggio’s .200/.323/.293 marks his fourth straight year of middling results at the dish.
However the Jays choose to proceed, getting Horwitz onto the big league roster in the near future seems prudent, particularly with Guerrero and Bichette beginning to turn things around at the plate. Guerrero entered today’s game hitting .356/.433/.477 over his past 150 plate appearances and has already launched a three-run homer. Bichette’s slow start lasted longer, but he entered play Thursday with a .303/.324/.470 batting line over his past 16 games (68 plate appearances).
Right now there are 12 teams that are somewhere between 500 and 4 games under 500. And most of those if not all of those teams are teams that went into the season planning on being legit contenders. It’s really hard to say as of today who will be buyers and who will be sellers. I really don’t think the Jays want to sell but if they don’t perform over the next 8 weeks they certainly could.
The trade deadline looks like it’s going to be very weak unless some teams start to slip. There are loads of teams that are within a handful of games for a Wild Card. There are only about 5 clear sellers and those teams don’t even have tons of great pieces to deal. It should definitely be a seller’s market.
Sports Illustrated writer suggested the Blue Jays trade Bo Bichette to the Dodgers for a package centered around Gavin Lux. Gavin Lux couldn’t get Dante Bichette today back in a trade…
In fairness, I think their #1 prospect was also in that proposal and would probably be seen as the headliner, at least from a talent point of view.
The names suggested were: Gavin Lux, Dalton Rushing, and Payton Martin
But ya, a prospect pitcher who likely never sees the majors, an over-hyped bench player and a good hitting prospect catcher feels a little light for a year and a half of Bichette
I have seem some really stupid posts from Sports Illustrated in my news feed recently. Kinda like you are talking about trade ideas that make no sense. I guess they are trying to stay relevant. I like trade ideas but some of these ones I have seen have been awful.
And almost every one of them is team X gifting superstar player Y to the Yankees or Dodgers for an Aaron Judge autograph or the phone number to a good bookie…
Lux was so brutally overrated from the start, it was painful.
IKF is not a free agent at years end, he signed a two year deal.
which they said in the article
The article doesn’t say he is.
It says a number of players including IKF are signed/controlled only through this season or next.
Thats pretty clear…not sure why people think this means IKF is an FA at seasons end.
Another glaring hole is the rotation, specifically Manoah. He’s been decent enough for the 5th when he came back from the IL but he’s back on with an injury involving his elbow and possible unspecified surgery. That leaves a combination of Rodriguez and Francis as the 5th starter. Not an ideal option piggybacking pitchers to make a 5th starter nor are bullpen days.
This FO isn’t smart enough to see the team is a dead man walking.
When you consider how so many things have gone wrong for this team in one way or another – Manoah, Springer, Romano, Vogelbach (predictably), Biggio, Turner, and the meh performances of Bichette and Guerrero, etc – it really is amazing this team is as close to .500 as they are. If just 2 or 3 of those guys get it together, they’re easily a wildcard team. But look at the Padres of 2023. What you saw on paper just never matched up with the results, so there’s that comparison.
solaris – Speaking of Turner, his OPS took a dive last September because he was hurt. I wouldn’t be surprised if he was dealing with an injury last month, he’s up there in age after all.
6 for 15 to start June means perhaps he has already turned things around.
Having a mediocre 5th starter isn’t a critical issue. Their 5th starters were terrible last year and it was one of top rotations in the league. Sure beats the rotation the Orioles are trying to cobble together now. IF the bullpen and lineup can improve to being average, the top 4 starters should carry the Jays to a wild card.
@smuzqwpdmx
Using 2 pitchers to “create” the 5th starter is a bad thing. It means your BP is down a pitcher.
Do the Jays have a 5th starter? It seems that is a bullpen game.
Rodriguez didn’t pitch at all last year so he’s good for a couple or three innings. Francis has success in small samples and could go 2 or 3. Combine them together and you get the 5th. If you’re looking for a single pitcher from the minors, that would be Aaron Sanchez.
Cavan Biggio needs to be non-tendered after the season. It should have been done after 2022. A lot of Jays fans have given him a pass on other message boards. Can’t do it now.
Shades of 2017 all over again. Close enough to a WC spot not to be considered out of it, while believing “we are just a bat away”. At least a bat or two. Your ‘best player’ rocks a batting average under .220. That’s not a force at the plate you can rely on with a lineup not deep enough to win.
@its_happening
He should have been swapped for Robles last year.
Since when is a 200/.323/.293 line considered middling? It’s downright atrocious.
We’re led to believe by the sabremetricians that BA is an antiquated/irrelevant statistic. Turns out it’s just a wild coincidence that every player batting .200 or under sucks.
Horwitz has hit well in AAA the last couple of years. Why the push now for reps at second base rather than a year ago? Only 25 innings at the keystone in 2023. That is not enough time. Also not enough time in leftfield the last couple of years. He has shown to hit and the Blue Jays need a bat.
@SkenesandSlopes
It’s all part of the player development program of positional flexibility. They’ll move you to multiple positions where you’ll be bad instead of developing you at one position. They’ve had Barger at 3B, SS, 2B, RF, and LF. They’ve doing it to Martinez.
I guess the philosophy is if you throw spaghetti against the wall enough times, something might stick.
Jack-of-all-trades and master of none. Maybe this is hurting player development? I recall the Jays doing the same thing with Groshans, Warmoth and others. Maybe stick with a maximum of 2 defensive positions so they can allow the kids to work on their hitting instead of four different positions?
@SkenesandSlopes
I wouldn’t be averse to a primary and secondary position. This “playing positions around the field” is as you commented, “Jack-of-all-trades and master of none”
They’re not trading a bunch of premier players that a team you try win with not tear down. Like the article mentioned they aren’t out if it and if they don’t make it in this year I don’t think it would take a huge splash to be right in it next year. The Yankees and Orioles especially are gonna be tough to overtake but this year and next the wild card gives them a shot. When you have that many high quality players to sell you don’t sell. It’s when you have just one you make a move and plan for the future
The Jays don’t have the prospect capital or the willingness to spend money what it will take to fill the holes that will include replacing Kikuchi and bullpen arms not to mention a couple bats. If the AAA prospects were ready to make an impact you’d be correct.
$246MM payroll, second year tax payer but yeah, they don’t have “the willingness to spend money”
It’s not that they haven’t spent, but rather will they continue to spend since there are appear to be many holes on this roster. I don’t follow the Jays, but it looks like they’ve hit their ceiling and it’s probably a good time to blow it up
A $246-mil payroll in 5th place. They’ll need to be willing to spend more to win.
Thank you for proving my point, stealing signs. And you are welcome.
Stealing signs is still correct. Even if they spent poorly, they still spend.
No he would not. What I said was “willing to spend what it will take” (I had an autocorrect throw the line off).
Because, it will take spending more for the Jays to be in contention. They are not willing to go beyond what they’ve already spent. I would be correct whether or not you agree with that person.
Will the Blue Jays spend enough to be the best team in the division/American League/Major Leagues?
If what they have spent is good enough to be in last place in their division, are they willing to spend whatever it will take to go from worst to first? How far are they willing to go to change their fortunes?
Look at the payrolls of the dodgers, Yankees, braves and Phillies. All are above what the jays are spending.
The jays are trying to be a top contender without spending like one. I get it. But sometimes you just need to spend the dough when the time comes.
They chose not to last offseason. We all know the “oh but they were willing to spend on ohtani” statement but truth is that deal would’ve paid for itself in advertising and secondary revenue.
When that deal fell through they should’ve kept looking for big name bats. The jays should have tried to pick up a couple of bats and some relief pitching but they cheaped out and went for the bargain bin.
I don’t think they cheaped out in terms of what they spent. It’s not like they waited around for better deals than Green, Kiermaier, and IKF at their respective rates. Then when they missed out on Pederson, they gave Turner pretty much the same money that Pederson signed for. I’m not sure what their walk away point was with Joc, but I hope it wasn’t what he ultimately got. I’d guess it was more that Pederson had a geographical or other preference if there were similar offers more than the Jays cheaping out.
It just seems like the Jays intentionally decided that they could build an effective offensive strategy around contact hitting.
Hoping to be #1 in spending is not really a good management policy. The real issue is development. I think they brought up one regular in the past 4-5 years.
You need to bring up one regular and one bench/RP type every year. Otherwise, you will never have enough spending money.
Two things, this isn’t this years problem, it was all of last year, plus the 2 playoff games, I’m pretty sure that’s a trend, I don’t need an analytics department to confirm what I’m watching after 220 games. Number 2, you already know if you want, or can, sign Vlad or Bo, to a long term contract, you’re not getting a deal on them either way at this point, so it’s a no brainer for me, I’m bold and trade them either way, there are multiple guys ready for a look in AAA, plus with whatever you get back from said trades, I bet this team is no worse.
I wouldn’t trade off if I were the Jays. They have talent and you just have to hope they play up to it.
They don’t have the minor league talent to replenish. To keep everything intact they’ll need to spend upwards of $300-mil in payroll which would have to include extensions to Vlad and Bo, plus re-signing Kikuchi and Jansen, and finding replacements for Kiermaier, Yimi, Turner and eventually IKF.
If they don’t trade off they’ll simply be acquiring draft picks through qualifying offers while coming up short against the top AL East teams. Not a position of strength.
I saw an article somewhere saying Vlad could get traded to the Twins for Gabriel Gonzalez, our number 4 prospect who’s an outfielder in single A. Gave me a good laugh…
Tigers should kick the tires on Bichette AND Vlad. Blockbuster. Send Tork, Jung, Meadows or some other minor league bats and a whole bunch of pitching not named Skubal, Flaherty, Olson or Jobe.
Kick Baez to the bench or the curb.