Renck’s Latest
Troy E. Renck of the Denver Post has a host of trade rumors in his recent column. Let’s break it down:
- Time to restart those Todd Helton rumors, as the first baseman is hitting a robust .360/.473/.533. Renck thinks a trade to Detroit is unlikely, but that the Yankees, Red Sox, or Braves could make a play for him this summer. The Yanks came up recently via Mark Healey. Maybe with Helton’s strong start, the Rockies can get their part of Helton’s $90MM contract down to $30MM.
- Renck likes the Rockies, Braves, and Red Sox as suitors for Rocco Baldelli. Rocco hopes to return in early June from a strained left hamstring. I wouldn’t expect a deal until at least late June.
- The Astros apparently are not making Chris Burke available despite his demotion. That’s a shame, because the Rockies like him. The Rox are hoping to see Kaz Matsui return from a back strain this week, so we’ll see how that goes first.
- The Angels still have interest in Garrett Atkins but talks haven’t been serious. Seems odd that Dan O’Dowd would sell low on Atkins at this point, but I guess it depends on the return and the Rockies’ projections for him.
Perrotto’s Latest
John Perrotto of Baseball Prospectus has quickly become another fine source for trade rumors. Some highlights from his latest column:
- The Twins would surrender a solid arm – maybe Jesse Crain, Juan Rincon, or Scott Baker – in return for a right-handed hitter. My own speculation: perhaps Wayne Krivsky, looking to stabilize his bullpen, would trade Edwin Encarnacion for Rincon. Rincon has been one of the best setup men in baseball for the past four years. On the other hand, Baker could really flourish in the National League and Kyle Lohse may leave via free agency after the season. Terry Ryan might want a more proven, reliable bat though. Buster Olney throws out Morgan Ensberg‘s name in his blog today.
- Some clubs already have center fielder Torii Hunter on the radar: the Red Sox, White Sox, Cardinals, and Rangers. I think there is no doubt the Rangers go in for one of the "name" center fielders this winter. I can see the Red Sox testing the waters but it would seem odd to block Jacoby Ellsbury for four or five years. Hunter is making the contract year argument, hitting .324/.358/.618 in 35 games. His previous career high in slugging was .524 in ’02.
- Perrotto confirms the finding of Michael Gluskin – Odalis Perez and Chan Ho Park are two names on the Orioles’ target list of starting pitchers. The O’s might have found some relief in the shrewd Jeremy Guthrie pickup – his last two starts against the Devil Rays and Red Sox were excellent.
Clemens Chooses Yankees
No more debating or Hendricks emails – Roger Clemens will be a Yankee in 2007. He made the announcement today at Yankee Stadium during the seventh inning stretch. He’s signed a minor league contract with New York and should be pitching in the bigs by June 1 at the latest. According to Peter Gammons on Sunday Night Baseball, the Yanks offered Clemens $28MM for the season and the Red Sox $18MM. Both figures are pro-rated, and the Red Sox were hoping to have Clemens start in late June rather than late May. I’m surprised the Sox wouldn’t top $3MM per month.
Peter Abraham has additional details: the Yanks first offered Clemens $25.5MM in Spring Training, wanting him at that time. Abraham says a 2007 debut in the first week of June seems likely, and a commenter at his blog makes an educated guess of June 8th against the Pirates at Yankee Stadium.
Clemens is a player worth five wins by himself in just half a season, if you are a proponent of WARP. And I don’t mean pitching wins – I mean wins in the standings for the Yanks above what a replacement level guy, say Darrell Rasner, would provide. What was at one point a laughable starting rotation for a team with such a huge payroll will become the following in a month and change:
Clemens
Pettitte
Mussina
Wang
Hughes
The Yankees are currently 13-15, 5.5 games behind the Red Sox. The wild card still isn’t the most attainable alternative, with the Indians and Tigers both playing .620 baseball.
Rockies Still After Julian Tavarez
According to Troy E. Renck of the Denver Post, the Red Sox will shop Julian Tavarez once Jon Lester is ready to return. The Rockies have maintained interest since at least last summer. Tavarez, 34, tossed 120 innings for the Rox in 2000. He makes $3.1MM this season and has a club option for $3.85MM in ’08. That option becomes guaranteed if he makes 60 more appearances this year.
Lester will need to show that his forearm cramp is a non-issue before the Red Sox can move forward. Lester won’t throw until Monday at the earliest. A few days ago, Nick Cafardo named a slew of teams that could pursue Tavarez aside from the Rockies: the Mets, Cardinals, Phillies, Marlins, and Reds.
The Eventually Expendable Julian Tavarez
Nick Cafardo of the Boston Globe speculates that when Jon Lester finishes a satisfactory stint at Tripe A Pawtucket, it will be necessary to move a Red Sox pitcher either through waivers or a trade. "The affected pitchers could be Julian Tavarez, Joel Piñeiro, J.C. Romero, or Kyle Snyder… Tavarez would have value to several teams, particularly National League clubs looking for a middle reliever or a starter. The Mets, Cardinals, Phillies, Rockies, Marlins, and Reds would all be candidates."
I am with Matthew Cerrone of MetsBlog.com, who cites December 2005 pieces from the New York Daily News and the New Jersey Star-Ledger that discussed the Mets’ negotiations with Tavarez when he was a free agent. Just because the Mets were once interested, does not mean they still are.
However, with Aaron Heilman struggling, it’s likely that Omar Minaya (or some other GM) might dream of restoring the 34-year old Tavarez to his 1995, 2000 and 2003-2005 form. His biggest problem right now is that he has been starting, a role he is definitely not suited for.
By John Peterson
Mike Plugh On Kosuke Fukudome
Mike Plugh is a Japanese baseball guru, and he’s writing quite a bit these days. I first caught on to his reading with the Matsuzaka Watch. He also has a Yankees blog called Canyon of Heroes, and has been featured at Baseball Prospectus regularly.
Following my April 29th post on Japanese right fielder Kosuke Fukudome, I asked Mike whether he thought Fukudome could play third base or center field capably. Not only did Mike answer that question, but he gave some interesting background on Fukudome in general. His thoughts are below.
On which positions Fukudome could play:
Fukudome would be an excellent Red Sox outfielder, and he’d hit a million doubles in that park. His days as an infielder are finished, but I think he could play any of the outfield positions. He’s best in right though. Center would be an option, but not the most attractive one from a defensive standpoint.
What we can expect offensively:
He is an on base machine with power to the gaps. He won’t be a home run slugger, but he’ll be standing on first or second base after about 40% of his plate appearances.
On Fukudome’s personality and attitude:
He’s a competitor too. Kind of a throwback guy. No dyed hair, jewelry, image enhancements. Buzz cut, square jaw, intense eyes. Not that those things make you a good or bad player, but fans will be turned on by his serious approach.
On possible interested teams:
I think it’s premature to say who is or who isn’t interested in Fukudome. I happened to know that several MLB clubs are going to make a serious run at him. I can’t say who those teams are for confidentiality reasons, but it will be a multi-team battle for his services. He should command in the $12-15 million range over 3 or 4 years. It will be a very good buy for whichever team he chooses. The Red Sox would benefit from the additional TV coverage they’d receive, but a lot of clubs would like to break into the Japanese market and have scouts over here on a permanent basis.
A’s Shop Harden To Red Sox
Yahoo’s Tim Brown has a source indicating that Billy Beane has called the Red Sox to see if they’d be interested in oft-injured flamethrower Rich Harden. Brown also knew some teams Beane didn’t call about Harden: the D’Backs, Dodgers, and Devil Rays. He speculates that buzzing Boston could be an attempt to lure the Yankees.
Boston’s strength is it’s starting pitching, so it seems an odd area to upgrade. Most likely this was just Billy and Theo BSing and it somehow turned into a trade rumor. But can you imagine the Red Sox rotation on paper?
Matsuzaka
Beckett
Schilling
Harden
Wakefield
Then in ’08, the Red Sox could let Schilling walk and plug Lester in, without losing much. Of course, a healthy Harden is like some sort of mirage. Seeing Harden on a Major League mound is as rare as seeing me at the office past 4:52. (What? I have a 5:09 train I like to catch).
We could throw around a bunch of Red Sox prospect names in speculation, but why? Nothing’s getting done until Harden strings together five healthy starts.
Brown says Oakland could go for a full-blown fire sale if they’re out of contention in July. Future free agents Mike Piazza, Milton Bradley, Jason Kendall, and Joe Kennedy would be prime tradin’ chips.
Locking Up Young Stars
Locking up young potential star players through their arbitration years has become quite trendy in baseball. Going year-to-year in arbitration with a Joe Mauer type is a thing of the past. A few might slip through the cracks – an unhappy Ryan Howard might not find common ground with the Phillies through his arb years. But it appears that most players are willing to sacrifice $5-10MM to set themselves and their families up for life. Since the deals sometimes steal a year or two of free agency, we can expect even weaker free agent classes in the future despite more money to spend.
Rob Bradford of the Boston Herald has a good discussion of this concept up at his blog. He’s got some quotes from GMs that may be telling. Brian Cashman talks about how the Yanks have tried it and haven’t had much success. That makes me wonder whether some covert talks have gone on with Robinson Cano and Chien-Ming Wang. J.P. Ricciardi talks about his newfound skepticism of the process, most likely because of Eric Hinske.
Jonathan Papelbon has talked to his agents about long-term possibilities, but there’s been no dialogue with the Red Sox. As Bradford writes, he is in a unique place because you don’t find a ton of star rookie closers. 2005 rookies like Jeff Francoeur, Garrett Atkins, Ryan Zimmerman, Felix Hernandez, and Ervin Santana could start talks on long-term deals during or after this season.
Rosenthal’s Latest
The always-interesting Ken Rosenthal has another column up, chock full of rumory goodness. The man knows how to work the phones like no other. Some highlights:
- Rosenthal considers the possibility that Curt Schilling could be the easy choice for the best available free agent starter after this season, with John Smoltz off the board. Even if Carlos Zambrano is out there, Schill would be a better option for teams looking to go short-term. Rosenthal says the Red Sox could revisit extension talks, even though it seemed just a month ago that Schilling was certain to hit the open market. One year and $13MM still looks pretty solid for the Sox.
- The Orioles may make an offer to Alex Rodriguez, should he opt out of his contract at year’s end. It’s admittedly a longshot, though the O’s did win the bidding for Miguel Tejada back in December of ’03. If not A-Rod, then the Orioles will chase a "premium center fielder." Translation: Ichiro, Andruw, or Torii. Seems unlikely that Corey Patterson, a Scott Boras client, returns to Baltimore in 2008.
- Rosenthal feels that the Tigers are "almost certain" to exercise Ivan Rodriguez‘s $13MM option for 2008. I agree with that one, especially given the $3MM buyout price. If the best available catchers are indeed Michael Barrett and Paul Lo Duca, Barrett has the clear advantage. The Cubs don’t have any catchers in the pipeline (most teams don’t) so I can’t see why they wouldn’t just give him what he wants. Most likely the Cubs would get a discount.
Red Sox Eyeing Kosuke Fukudome?
Kosume Fukudome is a 30 year-old outfielder currently playing for the Chunichi Dragons. Mike Plugh praises his doubles power and has described him as an on-base machine with a rifle arm on defense. He may compare to Hideki Matsui in some ways. Should Fukudome come over to the Majors after this season, it won’t involve the posting process. He’ll be a free agent.
According to injury guru and occasional rumormonger Will Carroll (subscription required), the Red Sox already have their eye on Fukudome. Carroll doesn’t expect the Sox to acquire a long-term outfielder like Rocco Baldelli this summer because of their interest in Fukudome.
I will have to find out if Fukudome could play a credible center field or return to third base. Otherwise, such a signing would only seem to make sense for Boston if they moved Manny Ramirez. They don’t seem likely to try J.D. Drew as the regular CF.