Angels Have Listened To Offers On Shohei Ohtani; Trade Seen As Unlikely
A deadline season that already has one of the highest-profile trade candidates ever in Juan Soto could add another to the list. Jon Heyman and Joel Sherman of the New York Post report that while a deal is ultimately unlikely, the Angels have not turned away interested teams as they’ve made inquiries and submitted trade proposals for two-way star and reigning AL MVP Shohei Ohtani. The Post duo spoke with three executives whose teams have reached out to the Angels, all of whom characterized the chances of a trade as extremely low due to an unsurprisingly enormous asking price.
The mere notion of an Ohtani trade will ignite a frenzy of speculation and wishful thinking — and with good reason. The 28-year-old is in the midst of yet another incredible season, having pitched to a 2.81 ERA with a 36.4% strikeout rate and 5.8% walk rate through 99 1/3 innings. He’s also hitting .254/.349/.486 with 21 home runs and 11 stolen bases. Dating back to last season, Ohtani has hit .256/.363/.550 with 67 home runs in 1052 plate appearances while also pitching 229 2/3 innings of 3.02 ERA ball with a 32.3% strikeout rate. It’s a legitimately historic performance, the likes of which current fans have not seen in their lifetimes.
That the Angels will at least listen is certainly of note and is only understandable in light of yet another disastrous season. Despite Ohtani and three-time MVP Mike Trout anchoring the roster, the Halos are sitting on a 42-57 record and find themselves already all but eliminated from postseason contention. Incredibly, that’s a common refrain in Anaheim, where the Angels haven’t reached the playoffs since way back in 2014 — three seasons prior to Ohtani’s MLB debut. Repeated injuries up and down the pitching staff have regularly coupled with immediate declines from high-priced stars like Josh Hamilton, Albert Pujols and Anthony Rendon to leave the Angels with a top-heavy roster that has rarely even sniffed playoff contention.
Ohtani, meanwhile, has arguably been the game’s greatest bargain since arriving on the scene. Rather than wait until he was old enough to qualify as a professional player on the international market (25 years old), he instead opted to make the jump to Major League Baseball at just 23 years old. In doing so, Ohtani knowingly subjected himself to the international bonus pool restrictions that govern MLB teams’ signing of amateur players, leaving hundreds of millions of dollars on the table in order to accelerate his path to the world’s top league.
Shocking as that was at the time, Ohtani could yet find himself positioned for a historic contract before long. He’s currently playing on just a $5MM salary in his second year of arbitration eligibility, but he’ll receive a presumably massive raise this winter and is eligible to become a free agent following the 2023 season. Any team submitting offers for Ohtani will do so knowing they can only control him for one and a half seasons, and that the right to do so will cost them an enormous segment of the farm system. One executive who spoke to Heyman and Sherman indicated that the Angels “want something like your top four prospects” in exchange for Ohtani’s final season-plus of club control.
With that remaining control dwindling, however, the Angels have a dilemma. On the one hand, it’s easy to say they should be willing to do whatever is necessary to ink Ohtani to the historic contract extension he’d surely command. At the same time, the Angels already have both Trout and Rendon on the books at more than $35MM annually for the foreseeable future — Rendon through 2026, Trout through 2030. Ohtani would undoubtedly add another annual salary of more than $35MM to the ledger (perhaps well north of that sum).
That’d be a justifiable expenditure, but it takes two to strike a deal. Ohtani has spoken multiple times in the past about his desire to play for a contending club and reach the MLB postseason, and the Angels have instead stumbled through a difficult-to-fathom stretch of futility during his time with the organization. Asked just last night about his desire to remain with the Angels long-term, Ohtani told The Athletic’s Sam Blum:
“Regardless of where I’m playing, I want to give it my all, try to win the ball game that’s right in front of me. I’m with the Angels right now, and I’m very thankful for what they’ve done. I really love the team. I love my teammates. Right now I’m an Angel, and that’s all I can really focus on at this point.”
While that’s far from a direct declaration that he hopes to be traded, it’s of course notable that, when presented with the opportunity, Ohtani did not express a hope to remain with the Angels for the long haul. Perhaps a record-setting offer would still lead to an agreement, but that can’t be known. It’s generally fair to assume that when discussing MLB contracts, money wins out at the end of the day. As previously noted, however, Ohtani has already once forgone what might have been a $200MM+ contract as an international free agent to instead sign for a $2.315MM signing bonus — which wasn’t even the top available bonus to him at the time of his original agreement with the Angels in 2017.
Even if a deal is highly unlikely to come together in such a short amount of time, it’s nevertheless a fascinating wrinkle added to what’s already shaping up to be one of the most interesting deadlines in MLB history. There’s been almost no movement of note to this point, which generally sets the stage for unbridled chaos in the final 48 to 72 hours leading up to Tuesday’s 6pm ET deadline.
Twins, Brad Peacock Agree To Minor League Deal
The Twins signed veteran righty Brad Peacock to a minor league contract and assigned him to Triple-A St. Paul, Brandon Warne of Access Twins tweets. Peacock was recently granted his release from a minor league deal with the Royals.
Once a high quality starter and reliever for the Astros, the now-34-year-old Peacock’s career has been derailed by injuries in recent seasons — most notably 2020 shoulder surgery. Peacock also battled persistent neck and shoulder issues throughout the 2019 campaign.
From 2016-19, Peacock was one of the most valuable and underrated members of the Houston staff, logging a combined 320 1/3 innings of 3.48 ERA ball through 42 starts and another 86 relief appearances. He handled both roles well, pitching as a starter, a one-inning setup option and a multi-inning reliever throughout that time.
Unfortunately, thanks to the slate of neck and shoulder issues, Peacock has pitched a total of 7 2/3 Major League inning since that time. The results have been poor, to say the least: 11 runs on nine hits, four walks and a pair of hit batsmen. He’s fanned just six of 38 opponents in that time (15.8%) and worked with diminished fastball velocity.
None of that sounds particularly promising, but Peacock’s 2022 campaign gives far greater cause for optimism. The right-hander was nothing short of outstanding with the Royals’ top affiliate this year, pitching to a 1.64 ERA with a 27.6% strikeout rate, a 9.8% walk rate and a strong 50% ground-ball rate through 38 1/3 innings of relief (across 35 appearances).
The Twins are widely expected to acquire at least one, if not multiple relievers between now and Tuesday’s 5pm CT trade deadline, and the signing of Peacock won’t change that outlook or reduce their urgency to augment what has been an awful bullpen outside of righties Jhoan Duran and Griffin Jax. That said, there’s no harm in taking what’s effectively a free look at a once-excellent reliever who’s enjoying a resurgence at the Triple-A level this season. If Peacock continues to show well with the Saints, it’s conceivable that he could get a look in the Majors sooner than later, but his addition amounts to little more than a dice roll that will complement more impactful acquisition(s) in the coming few days.
Yankees Shopping Miguel Andujar
Miguel Andujar‘s journey from American League Rookie of the Year runner-up to organizational depth in the Bronx has been well-chronicled by now, and the it’s long seemed possible he could find himself with a clean slate and fresh opportunity before next Tuesday’s trade deadline. Jon Heyman of the New York Post writes in his latest notes column that the Yankees are “trying to deal” Andujar, who first requested a trade in early June.
Still just 27 years old, Andujar finished second in AL Rookie of the Year voting with a .297/.328/.527 batting line and 27 home runs back in 2018. A shoulder injury ruined his 2019 season, however, and a series of other Yankees acquisitions and/or breakouts (e.g. DJ LeMahieu, Gio Urshela, Josh Donaldson, Joey Gallo) have combined to limit Andujar’s opportunities in the Majors since that time. He’s worked to improve his defensive versatility, learning left field and first base in addition to his customary slot at the hot corner, but it still hasn’t resulted in much in the way of big league playing time.
Since returning from that 2019 shoulder surgery, Andujar has received just 279 plate appearances with the Yankees. In the team’s defense, he hasn’t hit well at all in that time, slashing just .249/.280/.358. Then again, the playing time has been sporadic, with Andujar always keenly aware that he could be optioned at any time. The Yankees have optioned Andujar to Triple-A Scranton a whopping nine times since Opening Day 2020, and even during his stints with the big league club, he hasn’t been a regular in the lineup.
There’s no denying that Andujar hasn’t forced the team’s hand, and with stronger big league production he’d likely have found his way back into the fold. We often hear about hitters struggling through inconsistent usage, though, and at least based on his Triple-A output, there’s a case to be made that Andujar’s big league struggles can be at least partially attributed to his lack of a role. The competition in Triple-A is obviously far weaker, but Andujar has nonetheless slashed .304/.355/.516 with 15 home runs, 13 doubles, five stolen bases (in five tries) and just an 11.4% strikeout rate through his past 299 Triple-A plate appearances (2020-21). Despite that production, the Yankees have given him 52 big league plate appearances this season.
Trading Andujar is something of a tricky notion for a few reasons. The Yankees clearly value him as a depth option and don’t simply want to give him away for nothing of value in return. At the same time, his stock isn’t exactly at a high point, given the lack of recent MLB production. A contending club isn’t likely to surrender a prospect pf any note and plug Andujar right into the lineup at third base as they push for a postseason berth. Similarly, a club in the midst of a pure rebuild (the Nationals, for instance) may not relish the idea of surrendering long-term value in order to acquire a player who’s only controlled another two years beyond the current season.
Regardless of the specific fit, a deal involving Andujar seems likely to come together either in the next few days or over the winter. He’s in his final minor league option season, meaning the Yankees will need to carry him on the Major League roster next year or else place him on waivers before being sent down to Triple-A, and he’d surely be claimed by another club at that point. The Andujar dilemma has been ongoing in the Bronx for what seems like forever, but perhaps it’s finally headed toward a resolution.
Starting Pitching Rumors: Cardinals, Castillo, Mariners, AL Central
The Cardinals are “intent on upgrading the rotation, not just spackling it,” Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch reports in a comprehensive look at the team’s potential deadline trajectories. While past deadline trades have often brought stopgaps options to St. Louis (e.g. Jon Lester and J.A. Happ just last year), the Cardinals could aim a bit higher this time around. Athletics right-hander Frankie Montas and Marlins righty Pablo Lopez are among the starters in whom the Cards have expressed interest, per the report. Goold also lists Angels right-hander Noah Syndergaard as a name of interest, and there are surely others the Cardinals are considering as they look to offset injuries to Jack Flaherty, Steven Matz, Alex Reyes and Dakota Hudson (who has struggled even when healthy this season).
St. Louis has upwards of $155MM already on the books for the current season, though that number will dip to around $90MM for the 2023 campaign (not including several notable arbitration raises). The Cardinals are still nearly $10MM shy of their record Opening Day payroll ($164MM), and they’ve gone a bit further than that with some midseason acquisitions in recent years, so there should still be payroll space to accommodate players making substantial salaries. They also have one of the game’s deepest farm systems, allowing them to bid competitively for the market’s top arms.
Some more notes on the trade market for starters…
- The Mariners are looking for rotation help, and Ken Rosenthal reports in his latest appearance with FOX Sports that Reds ace Luis Castillo “seems to be their main focus and target” at this juncture (Twitter link, with video). Seattle’s top four starters — Logan Gilbert, Robbie Ray, Marco Gonzales and Chris Flexen — have made at least 19 starts, and they’ve received good results from top prospect George Kirby since plugging him into the rotation (3.50 ERA through 13 starts). However, Kirby is at 96 innings between the minors and big leagues combined, which is already a notable jump from last year’s total of 67 2/3 innings. Gilbert’s 123 innings effectively match last year’s total of 124 1/3 frames. Beyond that, the Mariners probably can’t expect to avoid any notable injuries on the starting staff all season — few teams can — so there’s good sense in adding another arm to support the group. In Castillo’s case, he’d of course slot right in alongside Gilbert and Ray into a playoff rotation and give the M’s an excellent trio upon which to lean both this season and next.
- For all the teams seeking pitching help, however, it’s the trio of AL Central front-runners that are the most aggressive at the moment, Mark Feinsand of MLB.com tweets. The Twins, Guardians and White Sox are all looking to bolster their pitching staffs (rotation and/or bullpen help alike). The American League Central is the one division in the sport where there are three legitimate contenders for the division crown at the moment, and both Cleveland and Chicago (who currently trail Minnesota) are within 3.5 games of a Wild Card berth as well. There’s been prior speculation (here included) about the White Sox potentially going another direction, but they’ve been playing some of their best ball of the season this month and have thusly not had any discussions about the possibility of trading away veteran arms like Lance Lynn and Lucas Giolito, MLB.com’s Jon Morosi tweets.
- As for the Twins, 1500 SKOR North’s Darren Wolfson suggested in yesterday’s podcast that Reds right-hander Tyler Mahle could be the likeliest name to land in Minnesota by Tuesday’s deadline, though the Twins are casting a wide net as they seek both rotation and bullpen help. Minnesota has also spoken to the Marlins about righty Pablo Lopez, Wolfson added.
Tigers Place Andrew Chafin On Restricted List
The Tigers announced Thursday that they’ve placed left-hander Andrew Chafin on the restricted list in advance of the team’s upcoming road series in Toronto. Right-hander Bryan Garcia has has his contract selected from Triple-A Toledo and been designated as a Covid-related replacement player for Chafin (meaning he can be removed from the 40-man roster and sent back to Toledo without needing to first pass through waivers).
Chafin, 32, has been one of the best relievers in a quietly solid Tigers bullpen this season, pitching to a 2.53 ERA with a 29.3% strikeout rate, a 7.5% walk rate and a 49.4% ground-ball rate. He’s playing the current season on a $5.5MM salary and has a $6.5MM player option for the 2023 season that, barring an injury or unexpected collapse, he seems likely to reject in favor of a return to free agency (and another, potentially more lucrative multi-year deal).
The majority of Major League teams have had to place at least one player on the restricted list in advance of series in Toronto this season, as unvaccinated professional athletes are prohibited from entering Canada to participate in their teams’ games. (The U.S., it should be pointed out, has a similar policy.) Other teams may well consider Chafin’s status when weighing potential trades over the next few days, though as we saw with the Yankees’ acquisition of Andrew Benintendi last night, it’s not necessarily a dealbreaker — even for teams in the American League East.
Taking Chafin’s place on the Tigers’ roster for the next few days, at least, will be the 27-year-old Garcia, who has pitched to a 2.90 ERA through 40 1/3 innings in Toledo so far. Garcia logged time with the Tigers in each of the past three seasons but has limped to a 6.12 ERA through 67 2/3 big league frames, due largely to a pedestrian strikeout rate (16%), lofty walk rate (12.6%) and penchant for serving up home runs (1.46 HR/9).
Depending on how Garcia fares, this could be viewed as yet another audition for him. Chafin, Michael Fulmer, Joe Jimenez and Alex Lange are among the Tigers relievers who’ve commanded trade interest with the Aug. 2 trade deadline approaching. At the very least, it seems fair to expect Fulmer and Chafin to be on the move in the coming days, as both can be free agents at season’s end. Jimenez, controlled through the 2023 season via arbitration, has a decent chance as well. Lange (five seasons of remaining club control) and closer Gregory Soto (three seasons) would surely require larger returns.
Max Meyer To Undergo Tommy John Surgery
An already disappointing Marlins season took a turn for the worse Thursday, as MLB.com’s Christina De Nicola tweets that an MRI revealed a torn ulnar collateral ligament in top pitching prospect Max Meyer‘s right elbow. He’ll undergo Tommy John surgery in the near future and miss the remainder of the 2022 campaign as well as the bulk of the 2023 season.
Meyer, the No. 3 overall pick in the 2020 draft, skyrocketed through the Marlins’ system and made his debut earlier this month, yielding five runs in 5 1/3 innings of work. His next outing lasted just two-thirds of an inning before he exited due to elbow discomfort that sent him to the injured list. He’ll now spend the remainder of the season and the majority of the 2023 campaign on the Major League injured list, accumulating MLB service time and pay for the time spent rehabbing.
Prior to that rocky big league debut and subsequent injury, Meyer was universally regarded as one of the sport’s brightest pitching prospects. The former University of Minnesota ace breezed through Double-A last season and was even better in a 10-inning look at Triple-A last year, logging a combined 2.27 ERA with a 28.6% strikeout rate against a 9.2% walk rate in 111 innings.
The 23-year-old Meyer roared out of the gates in 2022, logging a 1.72 ERA and 39-to-9 K/BB ratio in his first 31 1/3 innings, overpowering opponents with an upper-90s heater and devastating slider along the way. He struggled through a pair of awful outings in late May with Triple-A Jacksonville, however, ultimately going on the minor league injured list due to what the team termed irritation of the ulnar nerve in his right forearm. He came back strong — 2.11 ERA over his next five starts — and looked to be back on track for this month’s big league debut.
Whether Meyer had a tear prior to his big league promotion or didn’t sustain the tear until one of his two MLB outings, he’ll now be sidelined for the next year-plus. A return late in the 2023 season remains plausible, but that’s hardly a given. Every recovery is different, of course, but pitchers often take closer to 13 or 14 months to return from Tommy John surgery. For instance, we’re about one year to the day removed from Tigers righty Spencer Turnbull undergoing his own Tommy John procedure, and the organization just recently announced that Turnbull won’t return this season. If the Marlins are in contention in 2023, perhaps they’d push the envelope and take some risk to get Meyer back as a bullpen option late in the year, but they have every reason to be cautious with the flamethrowing righty, given how important a role he could play in their future.
Meyer joins fellow top prospects Edward Cabrera (elbow tendinitis), Sixto Sanchez (2021 surgery for torn anterior capsule in his shoulder) and Jake Eder (2021 Tommy John surgery) on the injured list. Miami has also seen 2021 Rookie of the Year candidate Trevor Rogers take a massive step back in his sophomore season. It’s all a good reminder — particularly at a time of year when fans and teams alike are wary of trading minor league pitching — that as easy as it is to dream on touted young arms , the attrition rate of pitching prospects is an unyielding roadblock that teams perennially struggle to navigate.
Red Sox, Danny Santana Agree To Minor League Deal
The Red Sox and veteran utilityman Danny Santana are in agreement on a minor league deal, as noted on the team’s transactions log at MLB.com. MassLive.com’s Chris Cotillo tweets that Santana will head to the team’s spring facility in Fort Myers before eventually joining their Triple-A affiliate in Worcester. Santana has not yet played in a professional game this season, as he’s been serving an 80-game suspension following a positive PED test.
Santana, 31, spent the 2021 season in the Red Sox organization as well, appearing in 38 big league games but hitting just .181/.252/.345 in 127 trips to the plate. The switch-hitter posted huge minor league numbers in Boston’s system last season but did so in just 76 plate appearances, several of which came in Class-A Advanced and Double-A as he worked back from an injury.
It’s been a boom-or-bust big league career for Santana, who burst onto the scene with the 2014 Twins and would surely have finished higher in Rookie of the Year voting had he not been up against Jose Abreu‘s MVP-caliber rookie campaign. Santana hit .319/.353/.472 in 430 plate appearances as a rookie, popping seven homers, 27 doubles and seven triples while also swiping 20 bags. He looked to have seized an everyday spot in Minnesota’s lineup for years to come, but his production completely evaporated in 2015.
Santana was out of the Twins organization by 2017 and continued floundering with the Braves in parts of two seasons there. Overall, he followed that incredible MLB debut with four seasons and 735 plate appearances of .219/.256/.319 output at the plate.
Santana caught on with the 2019 Rangers and delivered an out-of-the-blue .283/.324/.534 batting line with 28 home runs, 23 doubles, six triples and 21 steals. That resurgence came amid what’s widely regarded as the “juiced ball” season, however, and has mustered only a .170/.247/.322 slash in 190 plate appearances since that time. Injuries — most notably elbow surgery and foot surgery — have slowed him during that time, but Santana’s massive 2019 showing certainly appears anomalous in nature, given the surrounding seven seasons of context.
It’s little more than a depth pickup for the Sox, who have placed a premium on acquiring versatile players of this ilk in recent seasons. Santana’s first run with the team didn’t prove productive, obviously, but he’ll nonetheless return and give the Sox some cover in the event of injuries down the stretch (or, perhaps, some trades of veterans currently on the roster).
Astros’ Jose Siri Drawing Trade Interest
The Astros are receiving trade interest in outfielder Jose Siri, reports Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic, who adds that “a number of teams” have explored trading for the 27-year-old. Each of the Phillies, Marlins and Brewers have been seeking center field help, Rosenthal notes, though he doesn’t explicitly indicate that any of the three have had substantive talks with Houston.
Interest in Siri comes from other clubs at a time when the Astros are apparently seeking more proven options in center field, but it’s plenty understandable if other clubs would look at Siri’s strong MLB debut in 2021 and his outstanding Triple-A track record and hope he can emerge as a valuable long-term piece if they can land him in a deal with Houston. While he’s something of a late bloomer, having turned 27 just six days ago, Siri hit .304/.347/.609 with four homers and three steals in a tiny sample of 49 plate appearances during last year’s MLB debut. This season, he struggled to a .178/.238/.304 slash in a larger (but still relatively small) sample of 147 trips to the plate.
Houston has twice optioned Siri to Triple-A Sugar Land this season (most recently one week ago), and in the 13 games he’s played there, he’s ripped eight home runs and batted .293/.354/.828 in 65 plate appearances. That eye-popping production from the right-handed-hitting slugger is further backed up by a huge .318/.369/.553 slash through 394 plate appearances with Houston’s top affiliate last season. Overall, he’s played in 107 games and tallied 462 plate appearances with the Astros’ Triple-A club, crushing 24 homers and swiping 25 bags in that time. Siri also posted through-the-roof defensive numbers in 315 innings of center field work for Houston this season: 8 Defensive Runs Saved, a 6.6 Ultimate Zone Rating and 7 Outs Above Average.
While that combination of minor league production and exceptional defensive grades at the big league level is quite appealing, Siri’s strikeout woes are the proverbial elephant in the room. He’s had issues making contact since reaching the Double-A level with Cincinnati back in 2018. Siri punched out in 32.2% of his plate appearances that season and has continued to whiff in more than 30% of his plate appearances at nearly every stop since. He’s fanned “just” 16 times in Triple-A this year (24.6%), but Siri has fallen victim to a strikeout in one-third of his MLB plate appearances and in 30.9% of his total Triple-A plate appearances.
There’s extra reason for the Astros to consider offers on Siri, given that he’s in his final minor league option season. As a win-now club, Houston understandably seeks an immediate contributor in center, and while it’s tempting to say they should be patient with Siri given the power/speed/defense blend, he’ll have to be carried on the Major League roster next year or else be exposed to waivers. Considering his raw tools and Triple-A production (and the current trade interest), it’s quite likely he’d be claimed by another team if things were to reach that point, so extracting some value for Siri right now makes sense if the Astros can find a deal to their liking.
Siri has not yet accrued even one year of Major League service, though if he spends enough time on a big league roster down the stretch, he could still get there. Even if he does reach that point, he could still be controlled another five years beyond the current campaign (or six more if he spends another 17 days in the minors this year).
Astros Willing To Listen To Offers On Controllable Starting Pitching
July 28: Houston would seek center field and/or catching help that is controlled beyond the current season in any deals for Urquidy or other cost-controlled starting pitching, Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic reports. As Rosenthal points out, many of the obvious cost-controlled options at those positions (e.g. Pirates center fielder Bryan Reynolds, Athletics catcher Sean Murphy) play on teams that would not necessarily be targeting arb-eligible players with only three seasons of control remaining.
Rosenthal posits the Orioles as a potential partner whose current goals could align with those of the Astros, though Urquidy alone seems unlikely to be sufficient to pry Cedric Mullins loose. I’d add that it bears at least some mention that Baltimore GM Mike Elias knows the Houston system better than most rivals, stemming back to his roots as a scouting director and assistant GM with the ‘Stros.
Speculatively speaking, both the Cardinals and Mariners have outfield depth and a need for rotation help. The Blue Jays, meanwhile, are deeper in catchers than most clubs and have been on the lookout for potential rotation additions.
July 27: “Controllable starters” is becoming one of the most commonly repeated phrases of the 2022 trade deadline, as far more young arms than expected are being made available to teams in need of starting pitching. ESPN’s Jeff Passan adds the Astros to the growing list of clubs that will at least entertain offers for young, cost-controlled members of their starting rotation, citing multiple GMs who’ve had trade conversations with the Houston front office. Righty Jose Urquidy would appear the likeliest of the bunch to change hands, per the report.
A trade dealing from the Houston rotation isn’t a given, but the ‘Stros have plenty of depth to withstand such a move if it means helping them address other areas of need. Justin Verlander, Framber Valdez, Luis Garcia, Cristian Javier, Jake Odorizzi and Urquidy give them six viable starters on the big league roster, and that’s not even including Lance McCullers Jr., who’s on a rehab assignment and trending toward a return to the Major League mound.
Houston also has top prospect Hunter Brown tearing through Triple-A lineups, and righty Brandon Bielak (who has a bit of MLB experience already) is pitching well in Triple-A Sugar Land as well. Former top prospect Forrest Whitley, meanwhile, recently returned from a lengthy stay on the injured list and is building up in Sugar Land, too.
It’s unlikely that Houston would move any member of its current rotation for pure prospects — not when the team has a firm grip on the American League West and appears poised for another potentially deep playoff run. Flipping an arm they control for multiple seasons, however, could be a means of bringing in some help at first base, in the outfield and/or behind the plate. The Astros don’t know when or whether backup catcher Jason Castro and left fielder Michael Brantley will return — Castro from a knee injury and Brantley from a shoulder issue (neither of which the team has elaborated upon to the public). Manager Dusty Baker told reporters about a half-hour ago that Brantley, who’s been on the injured list since June 26, has yet to even swing a bat (Twitter link via Chandler Rome of the Houston Chronicle).
Turning to the list of plausible names for the Astros to consider, it’s fairly logical that Urquidy might top the list. Garcia was the American League Rookie of the Year runner-up in 2021 and is controlled four more seasons — the most of any current member of the rotation — making him tougher to move. Each of Urquidy, Javier and Valdez are under team control through the 2025 season, but Valdez has stepped up as Houston’s No. 2 starter behind Verlander. Javier, meanwhile, is striking out nearly twice as many hitters as Urquidy and allowing home runs at a much lower rate (0.97 HR/9 to Urquidy’s 1.52).
None of that is to say that Urquidy, 27, is expendable or ineffective. To the contrary, he’s a former Top-100 prospect who’s appeared in parts of four MLB seasons now and pitched to a sub-4.00 ERA in each. He’s currently sporting a solid 3.93 ERA through 100 2/3 innings (18 starts). Urquidy is not and never has been an overpowering pitcher, evidenced by this year’s 18.2% strikeout rate and a career 19.8% mark in that regard, but he has some of the best command of any starter in the Majors. Urquidy is tied for the 12th-lowest walk rate among qualified big league starters (5.2%), and he’s tenth-best among 114 starters with at least 250 innings, dating back to his 2019 MLB debut.
Urquidy will be arbitration-eligible for the first time this winter, as will Javier. (Valdez is in the same service class but already hit arbitration as a Super Two player.) His salary should only jump into the $2-3MM range for the 2023 campaign, and he ought to remain relatively affordable through 2025, his final year of team control.
It bears emphasizing that a trade shouldn’t necessarily be seen as likely. Houston is surely taking an opportunistic approach to the depth they’ve cultivated in the rotation, but the Astros also will surely have a high asking price on Urquidy or any of their other young starters — and understandably so. For as deep as the group looks right now, pitching depth is often fleeting, and the Astros can’t know for certain what the future holds for either Verlander or Odorizzi, both of whom have player options for the 2023 season (assuming Verlander throws another 13 2/3 innings to reach 130 frames on the year, that is).
For now, Urquidy can be lumped in with a mounting number of quality arms who could potentially be acquired for a decent return and controlled by his new club for several seasons. The Marlins are reportedly open to offers on Pablo Lopez, while the Guardians are willing to listen on Zach Plesac. They join long-obvious trade candidates like the Reds’ Luis Castillo and Tyler Mahle, and the Athletics’ Frankie Montas, as names to watch in advance of next Tuesday’s 6 pm ET trade deadline.
Spencer Turnbull Not Expected To Return In 2022
Tigers righty Spencer Turnbull, who has spent the entire season on the injured list while rehabbing from last summer’s Tommy John surgery, is unlikely to make it back to a big league mound this season, manager AJ Hinch told reporters yesterday (Twitter link via Evan Woodbery of MLive.com). Turnbull hasn’t experienced any setbacks, but the team would need an “aggressive” timeline to get him back on the mound for a couple late-September starts. Given the Tigers’ place in the standings, it’s not much of a surprise that they’ll opt for a more deliberate and cautious approach to getting Turnbull back up to full strength.
Turnbull, 30 in September, has started 53 games for Detroit dating back to the 2018 season and has seen his results improve each year of his career. The 2021 campaign looked to be a legitimate breakout for the late-blooming, former No. 63 overall pick, as he tossed 50 frames of 2.88 ERA ball with a 21.9% strikeout rate, 6% walk rate and hefty 57.2% ground-ball rate. Turnbull, always stingy in terms of allowing home runs, faced 201 hitters and yielded just two long balls in 2021.
The peak for Turnbull undoubtedly came on May 18, when he punched out nine Mariners and allowed just two walks en route to the eighth no-hitter in franchise history — the Tigers’ first no-no since Justin Verlander‘s one decade prior (nearly to the day). That historic effort required a career-high 117 pitches, but the righty showed little in the way of immediate fatigue or decline. He received an extra day’s rest, completed six quality innings in his next appearance, and bounced back from that with another sharp 100-pitch performance. Turnbull’s next start lasted just four innings before he departed with forearm discomfort, however, and while the Tigers were initially optimistic that a worst-case scenario had been avoided, he ultimately required Tommy John surgery in late July.
Though the Tigers knew Turnbull was something of a long shot to log meaningful innings this season, they still signed him to a modest two-year deal just prior to Opening Day. He’d been arbitration-eligible, and rather than head to a hearing over his 2021 salary, the team put forth a two-year, $3.65MM offer that’ll now pay Turnbull $1.5MM to rehab this season and a $2.15MM salary in 2023, when he’ll hopefully return at full strength. He’s still under club control through the 2024 season, so assuming all goes well with his rehab, Turnbull can give the Tigers two seasons of starts.