Rangers Notes: Cliff Lee, Vlad, Molina
It was a bittersweet ending for the Rangers last night, but they're still the AL champions. They're planning to raise payroll, and now it's time to focus on Cliff Lee. The Dallas Morning News has a bunch of quotes from the free agent market's top starter. This cover-your-bases excerpt implies he'll at least test the market:
This is the first time I've been a free agent and I'm going to see what that's all about. It's an earned right by a player once you get six-plus years, and I'm going to take advantage of that and see where it leads me. I know I've enjoyed it here and I'm never ruling out the possibility of coming back, but I've got to play things out and see how it goes. I know this was a great group of guys, a lot of fun, and I would love to be a part of it next year, but there's so many things that could happen, you never know. There's a lot of things I've got to weigh into that. There's a lot of variables, what's best for my family, that's going to be a huge part of it. I want to be on a winning team. Obviously, this is one of those. We'll see, there's no telling what's going to happen.
Regarding the Rangers' other free agents:
- Designated hitter Vladimir Guerrero has a $9MM mutual option for 2011. GM Jon Daniels told Gerry Fraley of the Dallas Morning News, "We're not going to evaluate him on two weeks of games when he's had a career of excellent performance."
- Catcher Bengie Molina didn't rule out playing next year, talking to Susan Slusser of the San Francisco Chronicle.
- The Rangers' other free agents are Cristian Guzman, Jorge Cantu, Frank Francisco, and Matt Treanor. Their ten arbitration eligible players should eat up a chunk of the payroll increase: Nelson Cruz, David Murphy, Darren O'Day, Josh Hamilton, Mark Lowe, Dustin Nippert, Jeff Francoeur, C.J. Wilson, Brandon McCarthy, and Esteban German. Nippert, Francoeur, McCarthy, and German are non-tender candidates, in my estimation.
Torrealba Declines Mutual Option
Catcher Yorvit Torrealba has declined his side of his mutual option with the Padres, reports Bill Center of the San Diego Union-Tribune. The option, which was for $3.5MM, still pays a $500K buyout to Torrealba.
Torrealba, 32, hit .271/.343/.378 this year in 363 plate appearances for the Padres. He caught 795.6 innings, with Nick Hundley taking the rest. Torrealba threw out 37% of baserunners, his best mark since '06. He's a solid regular in a free agent market with about eight of them. Torrealba is a Type B free agent, so the Padres could get a draft pick if they offer arbitration and he turns it down and signs elsewhere.
Giants Notes: Sabean, Bochy, Renteria
You just won the World Series. What are you doing next? A few notes from the Giants' celebration…
- Giants president Larry Baer and owner Bill Neukom are expected to have discussions about extending the contracts of manager Bruce Bochy and GM Brian Sabean, writes Andrew Baggarly of the San Jose Mercury News. Both are under contract through 2011 with club options for '12.
- World Series MVP Edgar Renteria remains undecided about playing next year, reports Jon Paul Morosi of FOX Sports. Given the free agent market for shortstops, the 34-year-old would be able to find work. He's already filed for free agency; the team buying out his $10.5MM club option for $500K is a formality.
- The Giants' other free agents, all of whom already filed: Jose Guillen, Pat Burrell, Juan Uribe, Aubrey Huff, and Guillermo Mota. They've got eight players eligible for arbitration: Andres Torres, Jonathan Sanchez, Ramon Ramirez, Mike Fontenot, Santiago Casilla, Cody Ross, Chris Ray, and Javier Lopez.
The Offseason Begins
Congratulations to the World Champion San Francisco Giants and their fans! The offseason officially begins today – 142 players immediately filed for free agency. This year the exclusive negotiating period has been shortened to five days, so free agents can talk dollars only with their old teams until Sunday. As always, MLB Trade Rumors will be your one-stop shop for all the signings, trades, and rumors. Click here to see our list of free agents, including Cliff Lee, Carl Crawford, Derek Jeter, Mariano Rivera, Adam Dunn, Adrian Beltre, Jayson Werth, Victor Martinez, Manny Ramirez, David Ortiz, and many more.
Trade Market For Right-handed Starters
It's a murky trade market for right-handed starters. We can assume certain pitchers with burdensome contracts can be had, but the availability of the more interesting names is unknown.
Bad Contracts
Derek Lowe ($30MM through '12), A.J. Burnett ($49.5MM through '13), Daisuke Matsuzaka ($20MM through '12), Aaron Cook ($9.75MM through '11), Carlos Zambrano ($35.875MM through '12), Kenshin Kawakami ($6.667MM through '11), and Gil Meche ($12MM through '11) fill out this group. Some contracts are worse than others, and names like Lowe and Zambrano are not necessarily on the market.
Are They Available?
We've got six interesting righties who could hit the market: Zack Greinke, Shaun Marcum, Jeremy Guthrie, Matt Garza, James Shields, and Jeff Niemann. Greinke would really shake up the pitching market, though the price would be huge and he has a partial no-trade clause. The Rays are at least six-deep in their rotation, causing many to wonder if Garza, Shields, Niemann, or at least Andy Sonnanstine could be available. The Orioles might prefer the stability Guthrie adds, though this could be a sell-high opportunity. Marcum is under team control for two more years; is there any good reason to flip him?
The Marlins' Ricky Nolasco could be a name to watch this summer, as could Chicago's Edwin Jackson.
Non-Tender Candidates
We mentioned Kyle Davies, Brian Bannister, Jeff Karstens, Dustin Moseley, John Maine, Sergio Mitre, and Brandon McCarthy as non-tender candidates earlier. If a team is willing to tender a contract, we could see trades in advance of the December 2nd non-tender deadline.
Summary
The free agent market for right-handed starters is uninspiring, but names like Greinke, Garza, and Shields would spice up the landscape considerably.
Free Agent Market For Right-handed Starters
The free agent market for right-handed starters features an array of mediocrity. Let's break it down.
The Best Available
Five healthy right-handed starters jump out from this year's free agent class: Carl Pavano, Bronson Arroyo, Jake Westbrook, Jon Garland, and Hiroki Kuroda. Arroyo is expected to be retained by the Reds, however. All five pitched 195+ innings, with Pavano actually tallying 227 including the playoffs. Pavano also leads free agent righties in innings per start by a wide margin at 6.91. As a Type A free agent, he'll likely carry the added cost of a draft pick.
Out of this group no one posted an ERA above Westbrook's 4.22, but Baseball Prospectus' cool SIERA stat suggests no one deserved one below 4.00 except Kuroda. Aside from Arroyo, they're all groundballers. Kuroda is the only thing close to a strikeout pitcher here, and his control and groundball rate were strong too. Though he turns 36 in February, Kuroda is my pick from this group. They're all capable innings eaters, though.
Teams willing to spend $8MM+ per year on one of these guys should look at Japanese righty Hisashi Iwakuma. He may require a $16MM posting fee plus a contract, but he's only 30 and had pretty good numbers in Japan this year.
Back-End Rotation Types
Rodrigo Lopez, Kevin Millwood, Dave Bush, Jeremy Bonderman, and Freddy Garcia profile as 4.75 ERA, back-end rotation types. Lopez and Millwood can chew up innings better than the others. All five are prone to the longball.
Bounceback Candidates
Javier Vazquez, Kevin Correia, Aaron Harang, and Rich Harden are a year removed from useful seasons. All four had attractive strikeout rates as starters this year. Correia, with a 48.9% groundball rate, could be a sleeper.
Injured In 2010
Vicente Padilla (forearm) and Brad Penny (back) had strong but abbreviated seasons. Brandon Webb (shoulder), Justin Duchscherer (hip), and Chris Young (shoulder) barely pitched at all. Many millions will be guaranteed to these guys in hopes of catching lightning in a bottle.
Non-Tender Candidates
Kyle Davies, Brian Bannister, Jeff Karstens, Dustin Moseley, John Maine, Sergio Mitre, and Brandon McCarthy are candidates to be cut loose next month by their teams. They've all had their moments.
Outside The Box Options
Pedro Martinez and Braden Looper sat out the 2010 season; perhaps they could still help at the back-end of an NL rotation. Koji Uehara spent the year as a reliever but would be an interesting starting candidate if he could stay healthy.
Fighting For Innings
Jeff Suppan, Todd Wellemeyer, Brian Moehler, Ian Snell, and Micah Owings will have to battle for opportunities and will have to be open to the bullpen or minor leagues.
Summary
As always, there's a handful of pitchers coming off solid seasons and a larger group of injured or ineffective hurlers.
Odds & Ends: Long, Romanick, Falkenborg, Carlin
Links for Monday, as Cliff Lee looks to leave a strong last impression on his 2010 season against Tim Lincecum and the Giants…
- The Yankees and hitting coach Kevin Long agreed to a three-year deal, reports George A. King III of the New York Post. He'll be getting a raise on his previous $400K salary.
- The Athletics named Ron Romanick their new pitching coach, tweets Susan Slusser of the San Francisco Chronicle.
- King's colleague Joel Sherman doesn't believe Brian Falkenborg will be the next Colby Lewis, as Falkenborg is likely to remain in Japan.
- The Indians removed catcher Luke Carlin from the 40-man roster, according to the team's Twitter account. Carlin, 30 next month, hit .238/.332/.336 at Triple-A this year. The Indians' 40-man roster is at 38. Andy Marte is another candidate to find his way off the 40-man, in my opinion.
- If Carl Crawford has similar offers elsewhere, he'd need to be convinced to join a former rival like the Yankees or Red Sox says ESPN's Buster Olney.
- The Seibu Lions have again denied Hiroyuki Nakajima's appeal to be posted, according to a report passed along by NPB Tracker's Patrick Newman on Twitter. The Japanese shortstop was said Saturday to be holding out hope.
- Check out the voting for the 2010 Fielding Bible Awards.
Non-Tender Candidate: Casey Kotchman
The Mariners acquired Casey Kotchman from the Red Sox in January, installing him as Russell Branyan's replacement at first base. 457 plate appearances later, Kotchman is a lock to be non-tendered next month.
Kotchman, 28 in February, hit .217/.280/.336 for the Mariners this year. He's known for his defense, but more was expected offensively. He earned $3.5175MM in 2010, but may have to settle for a minor league deal this time around.
There is some silver lining for Kotchman's bat. In 2007 for the Angels, Kotchman hit .296/.372/.467 in 508 plate appearances. Drafted 13th overall in '01, Kotchman had seemingly recovered from a bout with mononucleosis and broken through in the bigs. He was the centerpiece of the Angels' trade with Atlanta for Mark Teixeira in July of '08, but his power slipped into reserve territory from that point forward.
Next month expect to see many of the up-and-comers of several years ago non-tendered, such as Kotchman, Conor Jackson, John Maine, Zach Duke, Jeff Francoeur, and Brandon McCarthy.
Remaining Club Or Player Options
Option decisions have been rolling in lately, and with the World Series set to end this week we can expect plenty more. The deadline is typically three days after the Series. Mutual options are usually not picked up by both sides; Miguel Olivo, Yorvit Torrealba, Russell Branyan, Adam LaRoche, Orlando Cabrera, Scott Podsednik, Vladimir Guerrero, Erik Bedard, Doug Davis, Jon Garland, Rich Harden, Octavio Dotel, and Trevor Hoffman will hit the market if theirs are declined. Let's discuss the remaining club and player options:
- Gregg Zaun, Brewers: $2.25MM club option with a $250K buyout. This is likely to be declined.
- Mark Ellis, Athletics: $6MM club option with a $500K buyout. This is expected to be exercised.
- Bill Hall, Red Sox: $9.25MM club option with a $500K buyout. Even after a decent year, this is too much to pick up.
- Omar Infante, Braves: $2.5MM club option with a $250K buyout. An easy choice to exercise.
- Adam Kennedy, Nationals: $2MM club option with a $500K buyout. This is unlikely to be picked up.
- Alex Gonzalez, Braves: $2.5MM club option. Pretty much a lock to be exercised.
- Jhonny Peralta, Tigers: $7MM club option with a $250K buyout. This should be declined, but the sides are expected to work out a two-year deal.
- Edgar Renteria, Giants: $10.5MM club option with a $500K buyout. World Series heroics aside, this is a lock to be declined. Renteria has considered retirement after the season.
- Jose Reyes, Mets: $11MM club option with a $500K buyout. The Mets will pick this up if new GM Sandy Alderson fails to work out a multiyear extension with Reyes.
- Adrian Beltre, Red Sox: $10MM player option with a $1MM buyout. This is a lock to be declined.
- Eric Chavez, Athletics: $12.5MM club option with a $3MM buyout. Certain to be declined.
- Aramis Ramirez, Cubs: $14.6MM player option. He's likely to pick up the option after an off-year.
- Jonny Gomes, Reds: $1.75MM club option with a $200K buyout. Walt Jocketty says he'll probably pick this up; if not Gomes' contract calls for his release (he'd otherwise be arbitration eligible).
- Coco Crisp, Athletics: $5.75MM club option with a $575K buyout. This is expected to be exercised.
- David Ortiz, Red Sox: $12.5MM club option with no buyout. Though Ortiz wants multiple years, the Sox are assumed to be considering this.
- Bronson Arroyo, Reds: $13MM club option with a $2MM buyout. Given Arroyo's 436 innings over the last two years, it's assumed this option jumped up to $13MM. The Reds would like to do a multiyear deal at a reduced salary, but Jocketty has committed to picking up Arroyo's option if not. This will limit the team's financial flexibility.
- Jeff Francis, Rockies: $7MM club option. The Rockies will decline, but interest is mutual on a new deal.
- Aaron Harang, Reds: $12.75MM club option with a $2MM buyout. This is a lock to be declined.
- Kevin Gregg, Blue Jays: $4.5MM club option for '11, $8.75MM for '11-'12, $750K buyout. The Jays will probably exercise one of the two.
- Kyle Farnsworth, Braves: $5.25MM club option with a $500K buyout. The Braves figure to decline this.
- Dan Wheeler, Rays: $4MM club option with a $1MM buyout. The Rays will probably decline this option, despite bullpen uncertainty.
- Mark Hendrickson, Orioles: $1.2MM club option with a $200K buyout. This is expected to be declined, but the O's could try to re-sign Hendrickson for less.
Elias Ranking AL Catchers Breakdown
Word is that the official 2009-10 Elias Rankings are out, so we will try to get a hold of those soon. We've got Eddie Bajek's reverse-engineered rankings available here in the meantime.
For those interested in seeing how the sausage is made, Eddie has provided a look into the American League catchers group. As explained here, the stats used for catchers are plate appearances, batting average, on-base percentage, home runs, runs batted in, fielding percentage, and assists. An adjustment is made for days spent on the disabled list.
The catcher breakdown can be seen here or directly below.