Alderson Favored For Mets GM Job
Sandy Alderson is "the overwhelming favorite" to become the next Mets GM, writes Mike Puma of the New York Post. A source with knowledge of the hiring process told Puma Alderson is "close to a slam dunk" for the position. His source adds that Alderson has the votes of Jeff and Fred Wilpon and only needs the approval of team president Saul Katz. Puma speculates that Alderson's hiring could be announced on Friday, a World Series travel day.
Andy Martino of the New York Daily News agrees that Alderson is the favorite and also speculates on a Friday announcement. Martino says Rangers GM Jon Daniels is no longer being considered for the Mets job.
Alderson, 63 next month, served as GM of the Athletics from 1983 through the 1997. He later worked in the commissioner's office and for the Padres.
Free Agent Stock Watch: Brian Fuentes
Brian Fuentes was in the right place at the right time in the 2008-09 offseason, coming off a 30 save season when several clubs were willing to spend big on closers. He fell 20 games finished short of having his 2011 option vest, so the 35-year-old lefty is headed for free agency. Let's assess his position.
The Pros
- Fuentes dominated lefties this year: 11.57 K/9, 2.57 BB/9, no home runs in 14 innings. Also in the small sample department: Fuentes was untouchable in 9.6 innings with the Twins.
- Assuming Mariano Rivera doesn't field offers from multiple teams, Fuentes can make a case as the second-best free agent closer unless Bobby Jenks is non-tendered.
- He's a Type B free agent who won't be offered arbitration anyway, so there's no draft pick cost. Last time around, the Rockies snagged the Angels' #32 pick and chose Tim Wheeler while also taking Rex Brothers in the supplemental round.
The Cons
- Fuentes is 35 and dealt with back pain this year.
- He's prone to free passes, with a 3.8 BB/9 on the season.
- He allowed just 5.8 hits per nine innings and a .227 BABIP, figures that he's highly unlikely to replicate.
- Fuentes had the highest flyball rate in baseball (58.5%) among those with 40 innings pitched.
- He's been ordinary against righties the past two years, according to his FanGraphs splits page.
- Fuentes' price tag will come with the typical closer inflation.
The Verdict
Fuentes may come into the offseason seeking two years and a closer gig, but the supply of available stoppers outweighs the vacancies. He may have to settle for one year and $4MM unless Beverly Hills Sports Council can create a bidding war.
Blue Jays Hire John Farrell As Manager
The Blue Jays officially hired John Farrell as their new manager, according to a team press release. He received a three-year deal, tweets Bob Elliott of the Toronto Sun. Farrell previously served as pitching coach for the Red Sox and director of player development for the Indians. He's a former pitcher, mostly with the Tribe.
Odds & Ends: Duncan, Mets, Dodgers, Baylor
Four years ago today, the Cubs signed Starlin Castro as an amateur free agent out of the Dominican Republic. He became the team's starting shortstop in May at the age of 20, debuting with a .300/.347/.408 performance. Links for Monday:
- Dave Duncan's new deal with the Cards will make him the game's highest paid pitching coach, tweets Joe Strauss of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch.
- ESPN's Keith Law (via Twitter) believes that Sandy Alderson would be a better choice for Mets GM than Josh Byrnes. Roughly 78% of MLBTR readers feel the same way.
- After being bumped from consideration for the Brewers' managerial vacancy, Tim Wallach will almost certainly become the Dodgers' third-base coach, according to Tony Jackson of ESPNLosAngeles.com.
- Rick Honeycutt has agreed to stay on with the Dodgers as pitching coach, tweets Ken Davidoff of Newsday.
- For you fantasy baseball junkies, I took a look at Brandon Morrow at RotoAuthority.
- Don Baylor will receive a two-year deal to be the Diamondbacks' new hitting coach, reports Troy E. Renck of the Denver Post. Nick Piecoro of the Arizona Republic adds that former Indians hurler Charles Nagy is the leading candidate to become the team's new pitching coach.
- Geoff Baker of the Seattle Times reveals quotes from Mariners president Chuck Armstrong from six weeks after the Cliff Lee trade. Armstrong said that when talks with the Yankees stalled, the White Sox, Twins, and Rangers were among the teams to get involved.
- Yahoo's Tim Brown previews the hot stove season with ten names to watch.
Manny Ramirez Likes Farrell, Blue Jays
Manny Ramirez would like to play for the Blue Jays under new manager John Farrell, the slugger told ESPN's Enrique Rojas (story in Spanish). Ramirez and Farrell crossed paths on the Red Sox, of course. Manny added that he had hernia surgery two weeks ago and was never 100% during the season. He feels like he has a lot of baseball left and can stay healthy as a designated hitter.
Ramirez, 38, hit .298/.409/.460 in 320 plate appearances for the Dodgers and White Sox this year. That's a down year by his standards, but it's also the best OBP of any free agent. Manny said he's liked the Blue Jays since they had great Dominican players in the 80s. To make room for Ramirez at DH, the Jays would have to use Adam Lind at first base.
Last Year’s Big Free Agent Deals
20 players signed free agent deals worth at least $10MM last offseason. How'd those work out?
- Matt Holliday, Cardinals: seven years, $120MM. Holliday lived up to expectations in year one.
- John Lackey, Red Sox: five years, $82.5MM. The Red Sox would probably undo this contract given the chance. Lackey shook off the health problems of 2008-09 by tossing 215 innings, but his performance dropped off in most aspects.
- Jason Bay, Mets: four years, $66MM. Bay's numbers fell off a cliff, and then a concussion ended his season on July 25th. The Mets would undo this contract if they could.
- Chone Figgins, Mariners: four years, $36MM. Figgins' walk rate and batting average fell as the Ms moved him from leading off and playing third base to batting second and playing second base. There was also a July dugout altercation with manager Don Wakamatsu. The Mariners would undo this deal.
- Aroldis Chapman, Reds: six years, $30.25MM. No regrets here, as Chapman dominated in 13.3 relief innings for the Reds and electrified fans with the fastest pitch ever recorded. Other teams are wishing they'd outbid the Reds.
- Randy Wolf, Brewers: three years, $29.75MM. Like Lackey, Wolf provided innings but at reduced effectiveness. I'm guessing the Brewers are disappointed.
- Placido Polanco, Phillies: three years, $18MM. I imagine the Phillies are satisifed with this deal, as Polanco hit .298/.339/.386 while playing solid defense at third base.
- Joel Pineiro, Angels: two years, $16MM. He missed two months with an oblique strain, but the Halos are probably still happy given his 3.84 ERA in 152.3 innings.
- Mike Cameron, Red Sox: two years, $15.5MM. He played in only 48 games due to an abdominal strain that resulted in August surgery. The team probably regrets the contract.
- Marlon Byrd, Cubs: three years, $15MM. Byrd hit .293/.346/.429 in his Cubs debut and played capable defense; the Cubs are likely fine with his contract.
- Brandon Lyon, Astros: three years, $15MM. He tossed 78 innings of 3.12 ball, picking up 20 saves when Matt Lindstrom got hurt. The contract was panned at the time, but the Astros got what they hoped for.
- Jason Marquis, Nationals: two years, $15MM. I thought Marquis would be mediocre, not hurt. A surprising elbow injury limited him to 13 starts and has the Nats regretting the deal.
- Jose Valverde, Tigers: two years, $14MM. He had some elbow woes in September but generally met the team's expectations.
- Marco Scutaro, Red Sox: two years, $12.5MM. He stayed healthy and did a decent job on offense and defense, so the Sox are probably OK with the contract.
- Mark DeRosa, Giants: two years, $12MM. Wrist surgery limited him to 26 games, so the Giants would prefer a mulligan.
- Mike Gonzalez, Orioles: two years, $12MM. The lefty finished strong, but shoulder pain limited Gonzalez to 24.6 innings. The Orioles would like to have this one back.
- Andy Pettitte, Yankees: one year, $11.75MM. A groin injury limited Pettitte to 129 innings, but a 3.28 ERA made it worthwhile.
- Fernando Rodney, Angels: two years, $11MM. It was an unimpressive campaign, though not an unpredictable one given his '09 stats. The Angels would probably undo this deal.
- Adrian Beltre, Red Sox: one year, $10MM. Beltre had an MVP-type season and was a huge bargain for Boston.
- Ben Sheets, Athletics: one year, $10MM. Elbow problems limited Sheets to 119.3 innings of 4.53 ball. The deal was regrettable.
- There you have it: over half a billion bucks and 57 contract years given to the 20 most expensive free agents last winter. By my estimate, teams regret half of these deals.
Trade Market For Center Fielders
After Coco Crisp and Jayson Werth, the free agent market for center fielders is barren. The Royals, Braves, Marlins, Nationals, and Padres may be looking for help at the position; let's see what the trade market offers.
Star Potential
Three potential stars, all 26 or younger, have surfaced in the rumor mill: Colby Rasmus, Matt Kemp, and B.J. Upton.
Rasmus is seemingly untouchable after a .276/.361/.498 performance at age 23. Though Rasmus requested a trade earlier this year, GM John Mozeliak said on September 26th, "I can assure you, Colby's not going to be traded." It was reported on October 6th that multiple teams are preparing a push for Rasmus anyway, but I expect Mozeliak to keep his word.
Kemp, signed through '11 and under team control through '12, slumped to .249/.310/.450 with apparently poor defense this year. Dodgers GM Ned Colletti wasn't as firm as Mozeliak was about Rasmus, but Colletti's October 2nd comments to ESPN's Buster Olney indicate Kemp's also staying put. Colletti said he'll listen on any player, "But there's not going to be any shopping on our part. I view all of our core younger guys as people who are going to be here for a while." It appears the Nationals will kick the tires.
Upton has not been able to match his offensive production of 2007-08, but he still adds value defensively. He'll earn more than $3MM as a second-time arbitration eligible player, but even the cost-conscious Rays might prefer to keep him given Carl Crawford's expected departure. Highly-regarded prospect Desmond Jennings has mostly played center in his career, so he could replace Upton if necessary.
Crawford Consequences
Should the Yankees or Red Sox win the bidding for Crawford, a center fielder could become available. The Sox have Mike Cameron ($7.25MM for '11) and Jacoby Ellsbury (team control through '13), while the Yankees have Curtis Granderson ($20.25MM through '12) and Brett Gardner (team control through '14). Darnell McDonald, who logged 450.6 center field innings for the Sox this year, could also be trade bait if a logjam develops.
Veterans Under Contract
Carlos Beltran ($18.5MM), Grady Sizemore ($8MM), Kosuke Fukudome ($13.5MM), Nate McLouth ($7.75MM), and Skip Schumaker ($2.7MM) are all signed through next season, with Schumaker arbitration eligible after that and the rest heading toward free agency. Aaron Rowand is owed $24MM through '12. Beltran and Sizemore must prove their health, though the former played a half-season and came alive in the final month. Fukudome and Schumaker were not primarily center fielders this year. McLouth and Rowand were major negatives offensively.
Possibly Expendable
Nyjer Morgan, Rajai Davis, and Jordan Schafer could be viewed as expendable by the Nationals, Athletics, and Braves. Morgan's future may depend on whether the Nationals add an outfielder, while Davis' could rest on Coco Crisp's option and the team's corner outfield alternatives. Schafer, the Braves' 2009 Opening Day center fielder, had a lost year partially due to wrist problems.
Non-Tender Candidates
Tony Gwynn, Scott Hairston, Reggie Willits, and Dewayne Wise could be on the non-tender bubble come December 2nd, and therefore might be trade candidates. You wouldn't consider any of these players a starting center fielder, though.
Summary
Rasmus and Kemp may be nearly impossible to pry loose, but the trade market for center fielders still offers more promise than the available free agents. Clubs willing to gamble on well-paid health risks will have more options.
Cardinals, Dave Duncan Reach Two-Year Agreement
The Cardinals have reached a two-year agreement with esteemed pitching coach Dave Duncan, reports Joe Strauss of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch. The contract includes a mutual option for 2013. There are some high-profile pitching coach openings this winter, but the game's best is staying put. Cardinals manager Tony La Russa signed a contract guaranteeing one year, but Duncan wanted more security.
Additionally, the Cardinals announced that Mark McGwire will return as the hitting coach, tweets Jon Paul Morosi of FOX Sports.
Amaro Talks Phillies Offseason
Phillies GM Ruben Amaro Jr. talked about the Phillies' offseason at a news conference today, and David Murphy of the Philadelphia Daily News and Matt Gelb of the Philadelphia Inquirer have quotes.
- Amaro said he wants Jayson Werth back and the Phillies can afford him, but he expects talks to go deep into the offseason. He'll make contact with Scott Boras over the next 48 hours. Despite the prolonged timeframe, Amaro seems to want to address the Werth situation first: "We're not going to feel comfortable on anything until we know where we stand on Werth and go from there." Werth, for his part, said he's "open to anything" but "this is definitely a business."
- Amaro downplayed Werth's season, saying, "Jayson had a good year. It wasn't an extraordinary year. He had a tough time with men in scoring position. It wasn't as productive a year as he had in the past." I wonder if Boras feels the same way.
- Kyle Kendrick's work as the team's fifth starter was described as "a pretty good performance," implying that the 26-year-old will be tendered a contract and the 2011 rotation is settled.
- The Phillies exercised Jimmy Rollins' 2011 option in December of 2009, but his next contract will probably be discussed after the '11 season.
Yankees Notes: Eiland, Girardi, Jeter
The Yankees have fired pitching coach Dave Eiland, GM Brian Cashman told reporters today (Mark Feinsand of the New York Daily News seemingly tweeted it first). Cashman said his reasons for the dismissal are private. Other Yankees notes of interest:
- Cashman will meet with Joe Girardi's agent tomorrow about a new contract, tweets Joel Sherman of the New York Post.
- The Yankees and Girardi need each other, says the New York Post's Joel Sherman, though he feels the manager regressed this year.
- Cashman on Derek Jeter, from Feinsand: "He's going to be a part of this franchise. We'll work something out."
- Cashman noted that the team's option decisions on Kerry Wood, Lance Berkman, and Nick Johnson are "all pretty obvious," implying that the three will be declined.
- SI's Jon Heyman previews the Yankees' offseason, guessing they'd gladly sign Cliff Lee for five years and $125MM if he'd take it. Instead, Lee could look for C.C. Sabathia money.