Manager Roundup: Marlins, Pirates, Blue Jays
The Braves hired Fredi Gonzalez and the Mariners chose Eric Wedge, leaving the Marlins, Pirates, Blue Jays, Brewers, Cubs, and Mets with managerial openings. The latest:
Marlins
Bo Porter "has emerged as the frontrunner," heard MLB.com's Joe Frisaro. Frisaro says Porter "has been making inquiries about candidates for his coaching staff." Edwin Rodriguez remains in the mix despite not speaking with the team since the end of the season.
Pirates
John Gibbons is "a serious candidate," says ESPN's Buster Olney. Others linked to the Bucs in the past: Porter, Dale Sveum, Ken Macha, Jeff Banister, Bobby Valentine, and Carlos Tosca.
Blue Jays
Red Sox third base coach Tim Bogar is no longer a candidate, tweets Maureen Mullen. The Jays have been linked to more than a dozen names. One of those, Rick Renteria, was announced as the Padres' new bench coach today.
Brewers
MLB.com's Adam McCalvy profiled eight candidates who have been linked to the Brewers. Bob Melvin is the favorite, in the opinion of a few baseball writers.
White Sox bench coach Joey Cora will interview for the job on Tuesday, writes Mark Gonzales of the Chicago Tribune. Updated at 4:11pm.
Nothing new on the Cubs, and it's too early for the Mets, but we'll keep you posted on all manager rumors here.
Arbitration Eligibles: Los Angeles Dodgers
The Dodgers are next in our arbitration eligibles series.
- First time: None
- Second time: Chad Billingsley, James Loney, Ryan Theriot, Hong-Chih Kuo
- Third time: Russell Martin
- Fourth time: George Sherrill
Billingsley and Kuo will certainly be tendered contracts this offseason. Billingsley trimmed walks, home runs, and ERA this year and is operating from a strong first-time salary of $3.85MM. Agents will be rooting for second-timers Billingsley, Jered Weaver, Matt Garza, Joe Saunders, John Danks, and Jeremy Guthrie to jump to the $6MM range and raise the bar for others. Kuo has a strong case as well, with a fantastic, healthy platform year in which he took over at closer.
Loney, Martin, Theriot and Sherrill form an interesting group of non-tender candidates for the Dodgers. We discussed Loney's case a week ago; about 82% of you expect him to be tendered a contract. A trade is more likely than a non-tender. Martin is in a similar situation - ESPN's Buster Olney tweeted last month that "the perception among rival GMs is that he will have some (but not great) trade value." It doesn't help that Martin is coming off a broken hip. For a look at the trade market for catchers, click here.
MLBTR's Mike Axisa looked at Theriot's case on September 4th, at which point 42% of you predicted he'll be cut loose. Looking at Theriot's numbers since then, a non-tender is even more likely. Sherrill is a lock to be let go after his tough year. He was placed on outright waivers in July and cleared.
Trade Market For Third Basemen
On Wednesday we looked at the free agent market for third basemen, noting that it's Adrian Beltre and not much else. The Orioles, Red Sox, Blue Jays, Indians, Tigers, Angels, Athletics, Mariners, Marlins, Cardinals, and Giants can't all sign him, so let's analyze the trade market at the hot corner.
Best Available Regular
There is sentiment that new Diamondbacks GM Kevin Towers could shop Mark Reynolds in hopes of changing the team's offensive approach. Reynolds led MLB in strikeouts in each of the past three seasons, and those totals hold the top three spots as single-season records. He hit 44 home runs and slugged .543 in '09, but slipped to 32 and .433 this year. Former GM Josh Byrnes locked Reynolds up in March; he's owed $5MM in 2011, $7.5MM in '12, and has an $11MM club option for '13. Reynolds being under contract doesn't help his market value, but at half the price of Beltre he will draw suitors despite his difficulty making contact.
Sell High Opportunity
Wilson Betemit isn't known to be available, but Royals GM Dayton Moore would do well to field offers. The soon-to-be 29-year-old has hit a little in the past, but nothing like this year's .297/.378/.511 line in 315 plate appearances. The Royals are his fifth organization; he'll be arbitration eligible for 2011 before hitting free agency after the season. Betemit is expendable and coming off the best year of his career at a time when decent-hitting third basemen are hard to come by.
Three Under Contract
Chone Figgins didn't play third base for the Mariners this year, but he's played it well in the past. He slipped to .259/.340/.306 this year and has $26MM left on his contract for 2011-13. A $9MM salary for 2014 could vest with 600 plate appearances in '13. A fresh start makes sense for Figgins, who still qualifies as a useful leadoff man. Another burdensome contract will have to be involved.
Mark Teahen, inexplicably locked up through 2012, hit .258/.327/.382 in 262 plate appearances in his White Sox debut. He fractured a finger on May 30th and returned to the team on August 13th. The Sox could change course and try Brent Morel or Dayan Viciedo as their third baseman next year, perhaps swapping Teahen for another bad contract.
The Twins' Brendan Harris is under contract at $1.75MM for 2011. He was outrighted in June, so he's presumably available.
Former Top Prospects
Brandon Wood's stock is low – he hit .146/.174/.208 in 243 big league plate appearances for the Angels this year and turns 26 in March. He's shown big power at Triple A and is capable of playing shortstop, so a few clubs would be interested in seeing if a change of scenery helps.
Mat Gamel, 25, had a solid year in the minors but saw little big league time with the Brewers. He dealt with a slight tear in his right lat muscle in the beginning of the season but eventually hit well enough to earn a September call-up. He had toe surgery at the end of the month, however. Casey McGehee is locked in at third base for the Brewers. They could use Gamel elsewhere or shop him for starting pitching this offseason.
Non-Tender Candidates
As we mentioned before, Kevin Kouzmanoff, Edwin Encarnacion, Jose Lopez, Andy Marte, Andy LaRoche, and Kevin Frandsen could be trade bait as non-tender candidates. There may be a few clubs willing to tender Kouzmanoff a contract if the Athletics aren't, so a trade is possible for him if the A's find a third base alternative. Regarding the others, teams might wait until the December 2nd non-tender deadline passes.
Summary
The trade market for third basemen offers worthwhile gambles. Will Reynolds and Figgins bounce back and will Betemit regress? Can Wood and Gamel hold down everyday jobs? Can Kouzmanoff and Teahen hit enough to justify salaries north of $4MM?
Arbitration Eligibles: Colorado Rockies
The Rockies are next in our arbitration eligibles series.
- First time: Ian Stewart
- Second time: Jason Hammel, Manny Delcarmen
- Third time: Clint Barmes, Matt Belisle
The Rockies have two non-tender candidates: Delcarmen and Barmes. They have to decide if Delcarmen is worth a $1MM+ gamble for 2011 after his struggles in 2009-10. The righty dealt with a forearm strain prior to his August 31st trade from Boston. Barmes, operating from a $3.325MM salary this year, is almost certain to be cut loose. He'll improve the free agent market for second basemen, though he'd like to return to the Rockies if he can't find an everyday job.
Stewart's playing time was limited this year due to an oblique injury and the occasional benching against a lefty. He won't be too expensive, and will be retained. Hammel had a solid year, better than his 4.81 ERA suggests. He'll still provide value in 2011. The Rockies' decision to tender Belisle a contract last winter paid off, as he led MLB with 92 relief innings. Belisle posted a 2.93 ERA with strong peripherals, and the Rockies will be glad to have him back.
Experts Predict Jose Bautista’s 2011 Home Run Total
Ben Nicholson-Smith wrote a compelling piece yesterday for MLBTR examining Jose Bautista's upcoming arbitration case. Today at RotoAuthority.com, we attempt to predict Bautista's 2011 home run total through the wisdom of ten top baseball writers, including Peter Gammons, Ken Rosenthal, Jon Heyman, and Buster Olney. Click here to see their predictions.
Manager Roundup: Cubs, Pirates, Brewers, Blue Jays, Mariners, Marlins
Rounding up all the latest manager talk by team:
Cubs
Owner Tom Ricketts has met with candidates Mike Quade, Ryne Sandberg, and Eric Wedge, reports Paul Sullivan of the Chicago Tribune. Bob Melvin is expected to meet with Ricketts, and Sullivan hasn't ruled out the Cubs entertaining Joe Girardi after the playoffs. Sullivan assesses the pros and cons of the five candidates, while Larry Stone of the Seattle Times puts Don Wakamatsu's name in the mix. Quade is the "surprise heavy favorite" for the job, according to SI's Jon Heyman.
Pirates
They interviewed Brewers hitting coach Dale Sveum today, according to MLB.com's Jenifer Langosch. She notes that the Bucs have also interviewed Wedge, Bo Porter, John Gibbons, Ken Macha, and Jeff Banister. Heyman adds Juan Samuel to that list, but sees Wedge as the favorite. The Toronto Sun's Bob Elliott says the Pirates have also interviewed Valentine.
Brewers
Wedge and Tim Wallach have interviewed so far, tweets Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports. He says they plan to interview about ten people in total, including Melvin. Tom Haudricourt of the Milwaukee Journal-Sentinel adds today via Twitter that he believes they've also interviewed Ron Roenicke. Heyman views Melvin as the favorite here. Cecil Cooper would like to interview, he told Haudricourt.
Blue Jays
Beyond long shot Bobby Valentine, who's already interviewed, they're looking at Don Baylor, Brian Butterfield, Samuel, Rob Thomson, Tim Bogar, DeMarlo Hale, and others according to Heyman. Stone mentions Rick Renteria, Nick Leyva, Ron Roenicke, and Luis Rivera as other candidates.
Mariners
Valentine is a strong candidate, says Heyman. He says they also have Ted Simmons, Gibbons, Joey Cora, Hale, Bogar, Bryan Price, and many others on their list. Larry Stone of the Seattle Times has more on this search, while also includes Wedge, Lloyd McClendon, and Cecil Cooper.
Marlins
Earlier this evening Valentine removed his name from consideration for the job, just days after Joe Capozzi's source named him the leading candidate. Heyman says Porter, Wallach, Tony Pena, and Jim Fregosi are also in the running. Don't forget Edwin Rodriguez, according to Stone.
Braves
They officially hired Fredi Gonzalez today, signing him through 2013 with a club option for '14.
Mets
Heyman feels that it's tough to guess their candidates until they hire a GM. Meanwhile, Adam Rubin of ESPNNewYork.com tweets that Mets officials aren't concerned with other teams conducting interviews or making hires. Updated at 6:30pm CST.
Hiroyuki Nakajima Drawing Attention
5:02pm: Nakajima will be represented by former Boras Corporation agent Tak Sato, MLBTR has learned. Sato was involved with the Daisuke Matsuzaka deal back in '06.
9:19am: If you look at our posts on the trade and free agent markets for shortstops and second basemen, you'll quickly see that there's not much available this offseason. We named the Athletics, Mariners, Mets, Nationals, Cardinals, and Dodgers as teams that might be seeking second base help, and the Orioles, Reds, Cardinals, and Giants as clubs that could be looking for a shortstop. The Twins, Astros, and Padres may need to fill both positions. That's more than a dozen teams, so demand exceeds the supply for everyday middle infielders.
Japanese shortstop Hiroyuki Nakajima is already generating buzz as one of the more interesting middle infielders potentially available this winter. FanGraphs' Patrick Newman profiled Nakajima yesterday, noting that the Seibu Lions haven't posted him yet and negotiations to retain him will begin in a week. Nakajima hit .314/.385/.511 with 20 home runs in 579 plate appearances this year. Newman considers Nakajima a line drive/gap hitter, and expects him to display less power in the Majors.
From what I've heard, Nakajima is likely to be posted. That means MLB clubs will bid for the right to negotiate with him. I agree with Newman and U.S.S. Mariner's Dave Cameron that the posting fee is likely to be $5MM or less. Cameron hears the Mariners are interested in Nakajima, while MASN's Roch Kubatko reports today that the Orioles are one of many teams that have scouted him. Given the market for middle infielders, Nakajima should be very popular if the Lions post him.
Odds & Ends: Hahn, Daniels, Edmonds
Links for Wednesday, in the lull before the Yankees and Rangers face off in Texas on Friday…
- White Sox assistant GM Rick Hahn interviewed for the Mets GM position yesterday, and Kenny Williams told Dan Martin of the New York Post, "I know I'm gonna lose him, and it's gonna be a heavy blow." Williams explained that Hahn has been picky with previous opportunities. Josh Byrnes was scheduled to interview for the Mets job today.
- The Mets won't be plucking Jon Daniels from the Rangers. Owner Chuck Greenberg told Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports, "He's not going anywhere" (Twitter links). Greenberg also spoke to ESPN's Richard Durrett about his desire to retain Cliff Lee, after the lefty's dominant start last night gave the Rangers their first playoff series win.
- Jim Edmonds told Rick Hummel of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch, "I'm kind of in wait-and-see mode right now" in terms of playing next year. Edmonds expressed his desire to land a backup first baseman gig for 2011.
- Talking about his next contract, Jose Bautista told Morgan Campbell of the Toronto Star, "The differences of $50,000 or $100,000 may not seem huge but it’s actually really stressful when you’re about to commit." For much more on Bautista's arbitration case, check out Ben Nicholson-Smith's article from earlier today.
- RotoAuthority explains why Homer Bailey is a fantasy baseball sleeper for next year.
Cardinals Claim Bryan Augenstein
The Cardinals claimed righty Bryan Augenstein off waivers from the Diamondbacks today, according to the team's Twitter feed. The 24-year-old spent most of the year at Triple-A, posting a 6.56 ERA, 7.5 K/9, 2.6 BB/9, and 0.9 HR/9 in 120.6 innings. He allowed a whopping 162 hits in that time.
Augenstein didn't improve his stock after Baseball America ranked him 11th among Diamondbacks prospects heading into the season. Even then, they wrote that in the best case he "profiles as a solid fourth or fifth starter in the Majors." He works with an 86-89 mph sinker.
Free Agent Stock Watch: Carl Crawford
After the Rays were eliminated last night, left fielder Carl Crawford told Roger Mooney of the Tampa Tribune, "I don't want to leave. Everybody knows that. I like it here, and I've made that known and wish something was able to be worked out." Crawford added to Marc Topkin of the St. Petersburg Times today that it's a "high possibility I probably won't be back next year." With the Rays lowering payroll, he's out of their price range. Let's take a closer look at his free agent case.
The Pros
- Crawford is a well-rounded offensive player. He hit .307/.356/.495 this year with 19 home runs, showing the best power of his career. He's a burner on the basepaths, typically good for 50+ steals at a success rate above 80%.
- He's one of the game's best defensive outfielders in left field.
- Crawford is a relatively young free agent at 29. Perhaps he'll age better than most due to his athleticism.
The Cons
- The contract will be a major commitment - at least five years and more than $15MM per season. Crawford is the best available position player, and it wouldn't be a shock if bidding reached seven years and nearly $20MM per season. Most $100MM deals have been regrettable.
- Signing Crawford will cost a draft pick, as the Rays will offer arbitration and he'll turn it down.
- Crawford will probably remain in left field. If his speed slips and his slugging percentage suffers, his power could be below-average for the position.
The Verdict
MLBTR's Ben Nicholson-Smith named a slew of potential Crawford suitors in August, but the Angels, Red Sox, and Tigers are perceived as the early favorites. Crawford could be the first position player to sign for $100MM+ without a 20 home run season on his resume.