Free Agent Market For Shortstops
As usual, the free agent market for shortstops is barren. There are no stars, and solid regulars are hard to come by. The Orioles, Twins, Reds, Astros, Cardinals, Padres, and Giants could be seeking help at the position. Let's take a look.
Technically A Free Agent
Even after an off-year, 36-year-old Derek Jeter is the top free agent shortstop. Everyone assumes he'll re-sign with the Yankees. Will he even receive legitimate offers from other teams? If something causes Jeter to look elsewhere, it'd shake up the market at this position.
Also Probably Unavailable
The Braves are widely expected to pick up their club option on Alex Gonzalez. Jose Reyes will be back with the Mets, and the Tigers are expected to retain Jhonny Peralta.
Tolerable Regulars
Juan Uribe, Orlando Cabrera ($4MM mutual option), and Cesar Izturis topped 850 innings at shortstop this year. Only Uribe was useful with the bat. Uribe has cause to seek a multiyear deal, since he's one of the better free agent choices at both middle infield positions.
One wild card, though he's not technically a free agent, is Hiroyuki Nakajima. The 28-year-old is expected to be posted by the Seibu Lions after a .314/.385/.511 campaign that included 20 home runs in 579 plate appearances.
Potential Regulars
Edgar Renteria may be pushed to an early retirement, but if healthy he'd still be able to find playing time. Miguel Tejada, Jerry Hairston Jr., Adam Everett, and Cristian Guzman are not inspiring shortstop options, but they all logged at least 450 innings there this season or last. Everett is the defensive whiz of the bunch, while Tejada still provides a little offense.
Utility Types
Some of the players listed above will find only utility roles. Other free agents like Nick Punto ($5MM club option), Craig Counsell, Juan Castro, Bobby Crosby, Julio Lugo, Geoff Blum, and Omar Vizquel will be scrapping for playing time and could sign minor league deals.
Non-Tender Candidates
The non-tender candidates could shake up the market, because they're just as interesting as the regular free agents. Jason Bartlett, J.J. Hardy, and Ryan Theriot are the big names. Bartlett is here because he'd be due more than $4MM next year, but given the terrible free agent class and his fine '09 season the Rays would likely find a taker on the trade market if they want to move on. Hardy is a similar story – most of you expect him to be tendered a contract, but he may be traded. Theriot is likely to be cut loose by the Dodgers. He served as the Cubs' main shortstop for three seasons before being supplanted by Starlin Castro this year.
Summary
Once again, the free agent market for shortstops is bleak. Uribe should be popular, and Nakajima plus the non-tenders could provide a boost.
Free Agent Stock Watch: Rick Ankiel
The Royals signed outfielder Rick Ankiel to a one-year, $3.25MM deal in January. I liked the contract, thinking the Royals could extract some value out of him at the trade deadline. GM Dayton Moore succeeded on that front, pairing Ankiel with Kyle Farnsworth and cash to acquire Jesse Chavez, Gregor Blanco, and Tim Collins from the Braves. Ankiel has a $6MM mutual option for 2011. The Braves are likely to choose the $500K buyout, making Ankiel a free agent. Let's examine his situation.
The Pros
- Ankiel's power returned in his 101 plate appearance stint with Kansas City. He slugged .467 with 11 extra-base hits.
- He hit a respectable .256/.339/.462 in 177 plate appearances against righties this year.
- The sample was small, but Ankiel's 10.8% walk rate this year was a career best.
- He's capable of playing all three outfield positions.
- Ankiel is likely to sign another one-year deal at a lower base salary.
The Cons
- Ankiel was terrible with the Braves and has never been good at getting on base.
- Ankiel fares poorly against lefties.
- He can't stay healthy. This year a quad strain limited him to 74 games.
- Ankiel is not much of a defensive center fielder, based on UZR.
- He's represented by Scott Boras, so his price could be inflated despite the poor season.
The Verdict
When healthy, Ankiel provides some pop against righties. It'd be difficult to guarantee him more than a million bucks, and you could argue that the deals signed by Jim Edmonds, Andruw Jones, and Corey Patterson are the best comparables. Ankiel will have to earn his playing time in 2011.
Arbitration Eligibles: Pittsburgh Pirates
The Pirates are next in our arbitration eligibles series…
- First time: Joel Hanrahan, Lastings Milledge, Andy LaRoche, Delwyn Young, Jeff Karstens, Ross Ohlendorf
- Second time: Wil Ledezma
- Third time: Zach Duke, Ronny Cedeno
The Pirates have three locks to be tendered contracts: Joel Hanrahan, Ross Ohlendorf, and Ronny Cedeno. They're all penciled into key roles for 2011 and none will be expensive.
Position players Milledge, LaRoche, and Young are on the bubble. Milledge probably doesn't have an everyday role on next year's club, but he's cheap enough to keep around as a fourth outfielder. LaRoche and Young would fill less prominent bench roles, but it's possible the Pirates could trade or non-tender one or both.
Karstens was designated for assignment in November of last year and went unclaimed. He's probably still expendable. Despite a 6.86 ERA in 19.6 innings (inflated by one outing), there was a lot to like about Ledezma's stint with the club. He averaged almost 94 mph on his fastball, his peripherals were strong, and the team is light on lefty relievers. He may still be non-tendered, but I expect the Pirates to try to retain him.
Duke, 28 in April, is likely to be non-tendered if there's no trade interest. A month ago, 88% of MLBTR readers predicted the lefty will be cut loose. Duke needs a good defense behind him, but if healthy he has his moments.
Trade Market For Second Basemen
In our post on the free agent market for second basemen, we named nine clubs that may be looking for help at the position this offseason but only a handful of solid regulars. Let's see how the trade market changes the supply.
Big Contracts
Chone Figgins (at least $26MM through 2013), Luis Castillo ($6MM in 2011), Carlos Guillen ($13MM in 2011), and Dan Uggla ($10MM+ in 2011) fill our well-compensated bracket of second base trade candidates. The Mariners moved Figgins from third to second base this year, and he posted a .259 batting average but still drew 74 walks. He could be swapped for another undesirable contract. Castillo is owed less and was pretty good in 2009, but carries a negative reputation. Guillen, who logged 393 innings at second this year, is viewed by Tigers GM Dave Dombrowski as a "jack of all trades." That's a pricey utility man, and his stock is further depressed by September knee surgery.
Uggla is included here but is not necessarily available. Perhaps he will be if the Marlins fail to extend him.
Utility Types
Jamey Carroll ($1.8MM), Skip Schumaker ($2.7MM), and Tony Abreu are utility types who can probably be had. Carroll posted a career-best .379 OBP this year. Abreu has crushed Pacific Coast League pitching in recent years, but hasn't performed in the bigs for Arizona.
Non-Tender Candidates
As mentioned in the free agent post, Jose Lopez, Ryan Theriot, Clint Barmes, Mike Fontenot, Willy Aybar, and Jeff Baker are non-tender candidates and therefore trade candidates. In the cases of Lopez, Theriot, Barmes, and Aybar, teams can just wait for the December 2nd non-tender deadline unless they would prefer to avoid competition from other free agent bidders. Fontenot and Baker could be tendered contracts.
Summary
I don't expect the Marlins to move Uggla this winter. Unless they do, the trade market adds only a few bad contracts and utility men to the second base hot stove picture.
Mets GM Interviews Start This Week
The Mets will interview Sandy Alderson, Rick Hahn, Allard Baird, and Josh Byrnes this week for their general manager vacancy, according to Dan Martin of the New York Post. David Lennon of Newsday tweets that it's Baird today, Hahn on Tuesday, Byrnes on Wednesday, and Alderson on Thursday or Friday. Martin adds that a team official told him other candidates could be added to the list.
Alderson is "perceived to be the favorite," writes SI's Jon Heyman. Heyman notes that Alderson has longtime ties to Mets owner Fred Wilpon, as well as support from fans and media members. Andy Martino of the New York Daily News, however, puts on the brakes and provides four tough questions for Alderson that he'd like to see answered.
Valentine Leading Candidate To Manage Marlins?
Bobby Valentine is the "leading candidate" to manage the Marlins, a "person familiar with the process" told Joe Capozzi of the Palm Beach Post last night. However, Capozzi learned that Valentine has not had a formal interview with the Marlins. SI's Jon Heyman wrote today that "the current belief among baseball people seems to be" that Valentine is the favorite to manage the Mariners.
Capozzi believes that the Marlins' short list of manager candidates includes Valentine, Edwin Rodriguez, Tony Pena, Tim Wallach, Jim Fregosi, and Bo Porter. He notes that Marlins executives have been divided since June on the decision of whether to hire Valentine.
Free Agent Market For Second Basemen
The free agent market for second basemen is short on big names and only offers a few players who would be considered solid regulars. The Twins, Athletics, Mariners, Mets, Nationals, Astros, Cardinals, Dodgers, and Padres could be in the market for second base help.
Solid Regulars
Mark Ellis, Orlando Hudson, and Juan Uribe are credible options to start at second base. Ellis, the only Type A free agent second baseman, has a $6MM club option. The Athletics will entertain the idea of bringing him back somehow. Uribe provides more power and versatility than Hudson. Hudson is a better choice for OBP. We're assuming Omar Infante's $2.5MM club option is picked up.
Fighting For Playing Time
Melvin Mora, David Eckstein, Cristian Guzman, Jerry Hairston Jr., Bill Hall, Adam Kennedy, Felipe Lopez, and Nick Punto will have to fight for regular playing time at second base. Hall had a Uribe-like season, slugging .456 with 18 home runs and playing all over the place. Mora had a nice year, posting a .358 OBP for the Rockies in 354 plate appearances. He hasn't played a ton of second base in his career, though.
Utility Players
Most of the remaining free agents will be pushed into utility roles if they haven't already been: Willie Bloomquist, Ronnie Belliard, Craig Counsell, Akinori Iwamura, Julio Lugo, and others. Several will have to settle for minor league deals.
Potential Non-Tenders
Last year Kelly Johnson was non-tendered by the Braves. He signed as a free agent with the Diamondbacks and hit .284/.370/.496 with 26 home runs. This year, Jose Lopez, Ryan Theriot, Mike Fontenot, Clint Barmes, Willy Aybar, and Jeff Baker are potential second base non-tenders. Lopez, Theriot and Barmes are likely to be cut, though the Giants may retain Fontenot. Barmes hit 23 home runs back in '09, while Lopez hit 25. Aybar and Baker are more in the utility mold.
Summary
There won't be much money spent on free agent second basemen this year. The 2012 class may be more interesting if Dan Uggla, Rickie Weeks, Kelly Johnson, and Freddy Sanchez reach the open market.
Arbitration Eligibles: Milwaukee Brewers
The Brewers are next in our arbitration eligibles series…
- First time: Manny Parra, Joe Inglett, Kameron Loe
- Second time: Carlos Gomez, Carlos Villanueva
- Third time: Prince Fielder, Rickie Weeks, Todd Coffey
Fielder will clearly be tendered a contract, though he's a strong trade candidate. With so many star first basemen locked up in multiyear deals, there are few clear comparables for Fielder in his last arbitration year. Mark Teixeira, another Scott Boras client, received a $3.5MM raise in January of '08. That'd put Fielder at $14MM, though the Brewers' first baseman has significantly fewer runs and RBIs than Tex did and lacks Gold Glove hardware as well. Boras isn't obligated to talk about Fielder's raise, though. He can just focus on what he feels Fielder is worth now, even comparing him to free agents.
Weeks is also a lock to be tendered, given his breakout healthy season in 2010. It's difficult to find a comparable for Weeks, as most top offensive second basemen are locked up. His credentials will net a raise of at least a few million bucks, and the Brewers will probably open extension talks.
Loe is another player who will be unquestionably tendered a contract. He had success out of the Brewers' bullpen this year, but doesn't have the career numbers to merit a big first-time payday.
Pitchers Parra, Villanueva, and Coffey all posted disappointing ERAs but strong strikeout rates in 2010. I think Parra and Villanueva will be tendered contracts, though they could be trade bait. Brewers GM Doug Melvin, speaking to MLB.com's Adam McCalvy, commented recently that "you don't want to give away a guy like Parra," as opposed to the team's "short leashes" on Jorge de la Rosa and Grant Balfour. Coffey earned $2.025MM this year, so there is a greater chance the Brewers non-tender him.
Gomez continued to struggle offensively, but his career numbers will limit his raise. He's likely to be part of the team's center field mix next year. Inglett, a 32-year-old journeyman, did solid work this year but could be cut in December for flexibility.
Trade Market For First Basemen
On Tuesday we analyzed the free agent market for first basemen, noting plenty of openings and a large group of players who will be fighting for regular playing time. Let's see what the trade market adds to the equation.
The Big Names
The Winter Meetings are coming up in a couple of months, and trade talk could be dominated by Prince Fielder rumors. 77.8% of MLBTR readers expect the big man to be traded this offseason, according to a recent site poll. Fielder, 27 in May, had an off-year in terms of his 32 home runs and .471 SLG yet led MLB with 114 walks and posted a stellar .401 OBP. Fielder, a Scott Boras client, reportedly rejected an extension offer from the Brewers in the five-year, $100MM range. He's arbitration eligible this winter and could earn around $15MM in 2011 before hitting free agency. The White Sox and Rangers were reported July suitors for Fielder; the Brewers figure to seek pitching.
A year ago Adrian Gonzalez was considered a strong trade candidate. I think the Padres' surprising run this year takes him off the market this winter, but it'd be silly not to listen. At $6.2MM for 2011, Gonzalez would be a superior trade target to Fielder.
Carlos Lee is more of a big contract than a big name – he's owed $37MM over the next two seasons. Lee spent most of his time in left field but picked up 20 games at first base toward the end of the season. He slumped to .246/.291/.417 this year and could only be dealt for a similarly bad contract.
Non-Tender Candidates
James Loney, Casey Kotchman, and Dan Johnson are our speculative first base non-tender candidates. Loney has enough promise that a trade is much more likely than a non-tender. Kotchman, on the other hand, is certain to be cut loose. As for the Rays' Johnson? He would not be expensive to retain through arbitration, having picked up only 140 big league plate appearances this year. He is 31 years old, though, and the Rays could non-tender him in December for the flexibility. Johnson's appeal lies in his destruction of Triple-A pitching this year, though there's no particular reason for the Rays to move him.
Projects/Platoon Bats
Four other first basemen who could draw trade interest: Travis Ishikawa, Chris Davis, Garrett Jones, and Jeff Clement. Ishikawa's future with the Giants may depend on whether they re-sign Aubrey Huff or another free agent. The 27-year-old Ishikawa has a career line of .265/.327/.400 in 665 plate appearances, with problems against southpaws in a scant 67 PAs. Davis had a shot to take over as the Rangers' regular first baseman this year, but his minor league success has not carried over. He too has struggled against lefties and must await his team's offseason decisions. Clouding the picture for Davis is Mitch Moreland's success this year.
The Pirates may have given up on regular playing time for Jones and Clement. Jones had a full 654 plate appearances to prove himself, and he did hit 21 home runs, but his .247/.306/.414 line was subpar. Like Ishikawa and Davis, lefties give him trouble.
Reds prospect Yonder Alonso would not be labeled a project at this point, but we'll put him in this group. 24 in April, Alonso was drafted 7th overall in 2008. He hit .296/.355/.470 in 445 Triple-A plate appearances this year, and is blocked by Joey Votto. Alonso has increased his versatility by playing 30 minor league games in left field, but he still may be dealt to fill a need.
Summary
We mentioned in the free agent post that the Orioles, Red Sox, Rays, Blue Jays, White Sox, Rangers, Braves, Nationals, Cubs, Brewers, Pirates, Diamondbacks, Rockies, Dodgers, and Giants could be seeking first base help this winter. The trade market adds two serious names in Fielder and perhaps Loney, plus a host of players who would be cheap to acquire and will have to earn their playing time.
Non-Tender Candidate: James Loney
Dodgers first baseman James Loney does not intuitively strike me as a non-tender candidate – the team was reportedly unwilling to part with him in July in a Cliff Lee trade. However, Loney had a terrible final two months and finished with the worst numbers of his career. Let's examine his case.
Loney, 27 in May, agreed on a $3.1MM deal with the Dodgers for 2010. He was arbitration eligible for the first time after posting another 13 home run, 90 RBI season. This year Loney still managed ten home runs and 88 RBIs, but his batting average and walk rate slipped from '09. He finished at .267/.329/.395, disappointing rates for a first baseman.
Loney's basic career numbers: a .288 average, 55 home runs, 353 RBIs, 267 runs, and 25 steals in 2436 plate appearances across 624 games. Potential comparables Corey Hart, Adam LaRoche, Ryan Ludwick, Cody Ross, and Josh Willingham averaged a raise of about $1.8MM, which would put Loney at $4.9MM for 2011. These comparables aren't perfect; Loney bests them all in average and RBIs but falls short in home runs. Hart, coming off a lousy platform year himself after the '09 season, had to beat the Brewers to get his $1.55MM raise. The Brewers were rewarded for tendering Hart a contract, as he had a big 2010 season.
Chances are some team would be willing to give Loney a shot at $4.5-5MM next year even if the Dodgers prefer a change at first base. Loney's team will have the ability to retain him for 2012 if they're happy with his '11 results. MLB.com's Bill Ladson speculated on Friday that the Nationals would go after Loney hard if the Dodgers make him available.
We'll still pose the question in a poll: will the Dodgers non-tender Loney? Click here to vote and here to see the results.