2009-10 Reverse-Engineered Elias Rankings
Once the regular season ended, the Elias Sports Bureau took all players over the 2009-10 period, divided them into five groups for each league, and ranked them based on various statistics. Each player was labeled a Type A, B, or none. Those designations and the possible accompanying arbitration offers determine draft pick compensation (click here for a refresher).
Eddie Bajek has reverse-engineered the Elias rankings, and he's providing that information exclusively at MLB Trade Rumors. Here's a look at his 2009-10 projections, to tide you over until the official ones come out from Elias. There are a lot of moving parts in reverse-engineering the Elias rankings, so these are subject to change if we find errors. Our last set of Elias projections is here, in case you want to see what changed during the season's final week.
Moore, Meredith, Castillo, Aubrey Elect Free Agency
Orioles players Scott Moore, Cla Meredith, Alberto Castillo, and Michael Aubrey elected free agency, tweets MLB.com's Brittany Ghiroli. They appear to be minor league free agents, having finished the season at Triple A and off the 40-man roster.
Moore, 27 in November, hit .209/.274/.337 in 96 plate appearances for the Orioles this year, playing mostly second base. He joined the Orioles in August of '07 in the Steve Trachsel deal with the Cubs. Moore was designated for assignment in '09 and '10, clearing waivers both times. He hit .280/.345/.476 at Triple A this year while playing mainly third base.
Meredith, 27, tallied 15 relief innings for the Orioles this year with a 5.40 ERA, 4.2 K/9, 2.4 BB/9, and four home runs allowed. The sidearmer racks up groundballs and handles righties well on his best days. The Orioles acquired him from the Padres for Oscar Salazar in July of last year. He was designated for assignment and cleared waivers in June.
Castillo, 35, whiffed 11 but allowed five homers and 12 earned runs in his 10.6 inning stint with the O's this year. He was designated for assignment in June to clear a 40-man spot for Jake Arrieta. Castillo's work in Triple A: a 4.54 ERA, 9.8 K/9, and 3.4 BB/9 in 39.6 innings. He was done in by 46 hits allowed. His previous work in Triple A was more encouraging.
Aubrey, 28, was drafted 11th overall by the Indians in 2003. It appeared that he might get a shot at first base for the Orioles heading into this season, but they signed Garrett Atkins and ended up designating Aubrey on April 1st. He spent the season at Triple A, hitting .235/.310/.495 with 22 home runs in 419 plate appearances.
Cardinals Notes: La Russa, Pujols, Payroll
In an afternoon meeting yesterday, the Cardinals made an offer to Tony La Russa to manage the team in 2011, according to MLB.com's Matthew Leach and the St. Louis Post-Dispatch's Derrick Goold. Leach quotes GM John Mozeliak saying that he hopes to have a resolution within seven to ten days. La Russa indicated he would not manage another team next year, but would not rule out working for another team in a different capacity. But in the opinion of Goold, "All indications are pointing toward La Russa's return, from the All-Stars the Cardinals have coming back to the recent comments he's made about the team in 2011."
Perhaps of more interest to us hot stove junkies is Joe Strauss' take on the offseason in a separate piece. Strauss notes that the team has a small arbitration class (first-timers Kyle McClellan and Brendan Ryan) but almost $80MM committed to nine players. Among those nine is Albert Pujols, whose $16MM club option is a formality. Extension talks are expected to occur after the La Russa situation is resolved. The team's $94MM payroll appears to be on the rise, though retaining Jake Westbrook might compel the team to fill other holes internally and cheaply in Strauss' opinion. Strauss explains the team's needs:
The Cardinals go forward seeking a backup catcher, a lefthanded reliever, an upgrade at either second base or shortstop, a safety net at third base, heft for the bench and possibly a right fielder.
Arbitration Eligibles: Chicago Cubs
The Cubs are next in our arbitration eligibles series…
- First time: Geovany Soto
- Second time: Carlos Marmol, Jeff Baker, Sean Marshall, Angel Guzman, Tom Gorzelanny, Koyie Hill
- Third time: None
Soto rebounded in a big way heading up to his first bout with arbitration. He has an All-Star appearance and the Rookie of the Year award under his belt from 2008, and has a career .268 average with 54 home runs, 196 RBIs, and 153 runs in 378 games. I think he'll fall short of Russell Martin's first-time reward of $3.9MM, but should easily top $2MM.
Marmol, working from a $2.125MM base, padded his resume with 38 saves, a 2.55 ERA, and a ridiculous 138 strikeouts. He'll jump past $4MM. Marshall's at $950K this year and pitched quite well in his first full season as a reliever.
Baker earned $975K this year as a utility infielder and did enough to be tendered a contract. The Cubs will also want to keep Gorzelanny, working from an $800K salary, in the mix.
Guzman and Hill may be expendable. Guzman had serious shoulder surgery in March, so the Cubs may not even want to pay him $825K again. Hill continues to be a credible defensive backup catcher. His lack of offense would keep his salary down, but the Cubs could look elsewhere.
Free Agent Groundballers
One trait any GM looks for in a starting pitcher is a strong groundball rate. According to FanGraphs, the free agent leaders (100 innings pitched minimum):
- Jake Westbrook – 56.4%
- Jorge de la Rosa – 52.3%
- Jon Garland – 51.9%
- Carl Pavano – 51.2%
- Hiroki Kuroda – 51.1%
An honorable mention goes to free agent Brandon Webb, who had a 64.2% rate in 2008, his last full season. How about a few trade candidates over 50% in 2010? Derek Lowe, Aaron Cook, Paul Maholm, and Edwin Jackson fit the bill.
Ted Lilly is the anti-Westbrook, with a groundball rate of just 29.5%. Bruce Chen, Javier Vazquez, and Aaron Harang also tend to keep the ball in the air.
Mike Redmond Retires
Catcher Mike Redmond has retired after 13 big league seasons, he told Joe Christensen of the Minneapolis Star-Tribune. Redmond signed an $850K big league deal with the Indians during the offseason, but was released in July. He plans to look for a new job in baseball.
Redmond batted .287/.342/.358 in 764 career games for the Marlins, Twins, and Indians, catching over 5,300 innings. He earned about $9MM in his career.
Mets Notes: Ryan, Hahn, Takahashi, Feliciano
For the first time in six years, the Mets are looking for a new GM. ESPN's Adam Rubin has the latest.
- The field of GM candidates has about 32 names. Five to seven will be interviewed in person (twice), with a resolution hoped for by month's end. Terry Ryan and Rick Hahn are on the list, reports MetsBlog's Matthew Cerrone. SI's Jon Heyman expects the Mets to consider Josh Byrnes, Sandy Alderson, Gerry Hunsicker, and John Hart as well to head their baseball operations.
- In the meantime, interim GM John Ricco will begin discussions with free agents Hisanori Takahashi and Pedro Feliciano and also talk about a Jose Reyes extension. Takahashi can declare free agency on October 31st, so there's slightly increased urgency. We discussed his situation here.
- COO Jeff Wilpon told reporters Omar Minaya never asked ownership to eat the contracts of Oliver Perez or Luis Castillo. Wilpon also said he "can't imagine" trading David Wright, but he'd listen if the new GM proposed something.
Arbitration Eligibles: Washington Nationals
The Nationals are next in our arbitration eligibles series…
- First time: John Lannan, Doug Slaten, Alberto Gonzalez, Mike Morse
- Second time: Sean Burnett, Jesus Flores, Wil Nieves
- Third time: Josh Willingham, Scott Olsen, Joel Peralta
- Fourth time: Chien-Ming Wang, Tyler Walker
The Nationals have to make decisions on a dozen players prior to the December 2nd non-tender deadline. They're known for their willingness to go to hearings.
Lannan got the Opening Day start for the Nats, but elbow issues surfaced in May and he was optioned to the minors in June. He posted a 3.42 ERA, 6.2 K/9, and 1.8 BB/9 in 11 starts after his recall, improving on his career peripherals and probably earning a contract for 2011. A couple of other starters, Olsen and Wang, will probably hit the free agent market after shoulder injuries wrecked their seasons. Wang didn't pitch in the pros at all. Olsen started out strong but could not recapture his success after returning from the DL.
The Nationals have four arbitration-eligible relievers in Slaten, Peralta, Burnett, and Walker. Slaten was designated for assignment in February, but he went on to have a strong season and dominated lefties. Peralta and Burnett were effective as well, with the latter even getting a few save chances. All three lefties should be tendered contracts. Walker went down with a shoulder injury in June and will be non-tendered.
Gonzalez and Nieves are expendable role players. They're not expensive, but the Nationals still may let one or both go. Flores, 26 this month, missed the entire year after having elbow and shoulder surgeries during the offseason. Wilson Ramos is now the team's catcher of the future, but Flores could be retained for little or no raise upon this year's $750K salary.
Morse, 28, earned a role on next year's club with a .289/.352/.519 performance in 293 plate appearances. The more expensive Josh Willingham will handle an outfield corner, barring a trade. Willingham will earn more than $6MM in his third arbitration year.
Diamondbacks Retain Gibson, Dipoto
The Diamondbacks signed manager Kirk Gibson to a two-year extension with a club option for 2013, reports MLB.com's Steve Gilbert. Additionally, he tweets that former interim GM Jerry Dipoto will become the senior vice president of scouting and player development under new GM Kevin Towers. As first noted by the Arizona Republic's Nick Piecoro on Twitter, only Matt Williams (first base) and Glenn Sherlock (bullpen) will remain on Arizona's coaching staff. Bo Porter (bench) and Jack Howell (hitting) were let go, while Mel Stottlemyre Jr. (pitching) and Joel Youngblood (third base) were offered other jobs in the organization.
The Diamondbacks posted a 34-49 record under Gibson this year; he took over for A.J. Hinch while Dipoto succeeded Josh Byrnes. Dipoto engineered the trades of Dan Haren, Edwin Jackson, Chad Qualls, and Chris Snyder in July.
Athletics Release Akinori Iwamura
The Athletics released infielder Akinori Iwamura, tweets Susan Slusser of the San Francisco Chronicle. Iwamura would have filed for free agency a month from now anyway, but it makes sense to remove him from the 40-man roster now.
Iwamura, 31, was acquired by the Pirates from the Rays for Jesse Chavez in November. The Bucs exercised Iwamura's $4.85MM option as part of the deal, making him their highest-paid player. He was terrible for the Pirates and was designated for assignment by June. Iwamura was released in September and signed with the A's. He'll need to rebuild value with a minor league deal.