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Brad Brach

Mets Sign Brad Brach

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The Mets have signed right-hander Brad Brach, as per the team’s Twitter feed.  Brandon Nimmo was shifted to the 60-day injured list to create a 40-man roster spot, while left-hander Donnie Hart was optioned to Triple-A to create space on New York’s active roster.

After being released earlier this week by the Cubs, the Mets are hopeful that a change of scenery can turn around what has been easily the roughest full season of Brach’s career.  The righty has a 6.13 ERA, 10.2 K/9, and 1.61 K/BB rate over 39 2/3 innings this season, with an ungainly 6.4 BB/9 and a career-high 37.4% hard-hit ball rate standing out as the biggest issues.  That said, Brach was perhaps a touch unlucky to post that big ERA, as his .375 BABIP and ERA predictors (4.13 FIP, 4.88 xFIP, 4.93 SIERA) could hint.

It’s worth noting that Brach also didn’t pitch well last season with the Orioles before a midseason trade to the Braves got him back on track, as Brach had a 1.52 ERA over 23 2/3 frames for Atlanta.  Overall, Brach has spent much of the decade as a solid-to-excellent relief arm for the Padres, Orioles, and Braves, posting a 3.05 ERA, 2.43 K/BB rate, and 9.4 K/9 over 449 innings from 2012-18.

Anything close to that performance would be a big help to a New York bullpen that has largely struggled this season, apart from a superlative year from Seth Lugo and some good work from southpaw Justin Wilson over his 21 innings with the club.  Edwin Diaz is ostensibly still the closer, though Lugo could potentially get more save opportunities down the stretch, so Brach could possibly step right into a setup role.

The Mets will only be paying Brach a prorated minimum salary for the remainder of the season, as the Cubs are covering the rest of the salary owed to Brach under the terms of his rather bonus-heavy one-year contract.  The deal also contains a dual option for 2020 — the Mets can either pay Brach $5MM or buy him out for $100K.  If the latter option occurs, Brach can enact a player option worth $1.35MM.

Though Brodie Van Wagenen has only been the Mets’ general manager for less than a year, the club had interest in Brach prior to the 2018 season, Mike Puma of the New York Post reports.  A Brach-for-Matt Harvey deal was discussed between the Mets and Orioles, which creates an interesting what-if scenario for fans.

Cubs Release Brad Brach

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The Cubs announced today that reliever Brad Brach has cleared waivers and been released. He was designated for assignment recently.

Brach’s complicated, restructured contract was never likely to be claimed. The Chicago organization will remain responsible for all ongoing guarantees, less a pro-rated portion of the league minimum salary for any time he spends in the majors with another club.

It seemed at the time that the Cubs made out well by landing Brach for such a reasonable price. But he just never found his groove in Wrigley, scuffling to a 6.13 ERA with 10.2 K/9 and 6.4 BB/9 over 39 2/3 innings.

Interestingly, the bulge in Brach’s walk rate occurred even as he put his first pitches in the zone more than ever (63.5%). His average fastball velocity (94.2 mph) and swinging-strike rate (11.9%) sat near recent levels. Statcast calculates an unwelcome 39.3% hard-hit rate, though that can presumably be reversed if indeed Brach’s physical tools are intact.

All things considered, Brach ought to hold appeal as a bounceback candidate to quite a few contending teams. It’s possible he’ll end up taking a minors deal to work out the kinks at Triple-A, but it wouldn’t be terribly surprising to see Brach sign directly onto a big league roster.

Cubs DFA Brad Brach, Activate Cole Hamels

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The Cubs activated lefty Cole Hamels from the injured list today, while reliever Brad Brach has been designated for assignment, per the Chicago Tribune’s Paul Sullivan (via Twitter) and others.

After an uncharacteristically mediocre first half with the Orioles in 2018, the 6’6″ righty appeared to right the ship in posting a 1.52 ERA with Atlanta down the stretch. The Cubs certainly hoped so when they guaranteed Brach $4.35MM this offseason, but with a 6.13 ERA through 42 games and newcomers David Phelps and Derek Holland taking roster spots, the Northsiders no longer had space for the 33-year-old former 42nd rounder.

He could have remained under contract for a lesser salary in 2020 due to a dual option, but Brach’s future is now up in the air. His track record should land him an opportunity to help a contender somewhere – but it might not happen this week. With more than five years of service time, Brach will have the right to refuse a minor league assignment and elect free agency, at which point he would be available on the cheap while the Cubs continue to foot the bill for most of his remaining 2019 money.

There is cause to believe in Brach’s future utility. A high-than-normal .375 BABIP points to some poor luck, born out in fielding independent metrics (4.13 FIP, 4.88 xFIP). Baseball-reference WAR pegs Brach as a negative contributor for the Cubs (-0.4 bWAR), but by measure of fWAR, which uses FIP instead of ERA, Brach should still be capable of adding value down the stretch (0.4 fWAR). Lowering his walk rate from 15.3 BB% closer to his career average of 10.5 BB% would certainly help.

Hamels will start today against Gio Gonzalez and the Brewers in a matchup of recently-activated veteran lefties. Hamels is 6-3 on the year with a 2.98 ERA (3.59 FIP), but his last start came at Great American Ballpark against the Reds a little more than a month ago. Gonzalez makes his third start since being activated from the disabled list – his second straight outing against the Cubs.

Cubs, Brad Brach Restructure Contract

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The Cubs and right-hander Brad Brach quietly restructured their original contract following Brach’s medical reviews, Patrick Mooney of The Athletic reports (subscription required). Brach says “a little bit of a viral infection” caused the change.

It appears the new pact promises Brach at least $3MM. Like the first iteration, it has quite a few moving parts.

The two sides initially agreed to a $4.35MM deal that included a $3MM base salary for 2019. It also came with competing club/player options that put at least $1.35MM in Brach’s control for the 2020 campaign.

Under the new agreement, Brach’s ’19 base salary will be just $1.65MM. He’ll have the ability to earn an additional $850K worth of bonuses based on days spent on the active roster, with $350K due for just one single day. After the season, the Cubs will decide between a $5MM option and a $100K buyout. If declined, Brach can exercise a player option at $1.35MM.

At the end of the day, it seems the Cubs will get an even better buy on a solid relief arm. Brach, who’ll soon turn 33, has worked to a 3.08 ERA with 9.5 K/9 and 4.0 BB/9 over 456 career innings in the majors. The veteran hurler says he’s excited to join the Cubs, but joined a growing list of players to raise an eyebrow at a free-agent process in which he received similar offers on a similar timeline from multiple teams.

NL Central Notes: Tazawa, Brach, Pirates, Goldschmidt

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Junichi Tazawa is set to arrive in Cubs camp on Monday after working out visa issues that delayed his arrival, per the Chicago Tribune’s Mark Gonzales. Tazawa remains a long shot to make the Cubs Opening Day roster, as he hasn’t been an asset to a major league bullpen since 2016 with the Red Sox. After posting a 7.07 ERA for the Marlins and Angels last season, Tazawa looks to re-establish himself in Cubs camp for former employer Theo Epstein, though again, the window of opportunity in Chicago is slim. Pedro Strop, Carl Edwards Jr., Steve Cishek, Mike Montgomery, Brandon Kintzler, and newcomer Brad Brach all figure to hold down spots in the Chicago pen, leaving Tazawa to compete for the final remaining innings with Xavier Cedeno, Tyler Chatwood, Alec Mills, Brian Duensing, Dillon Maples, Randy Rosario, and a few others. Brandon Morrow’s injury provides a limited-time opportunity for someone, but he’ll obviously take over one of those open spots when he returns for the injured list. Here are a few more notes from the Cubs bullpen and the rest of the NL Central…

  • A couple weeks before being traded from the Orioles to the Braves last season, reliever Brad Brach noticed his arm slot had shifted higher than usual, writes the Athletic’s Sahadev Sharma. When his release point shifts over-the-top, Brach loses some of the deception in his delivery and changes the plane of his pitch movement. He is cognizant, however, that he’s more effective as he stays closer to a three-quarters delivery. The mechanical adjustment certainly seemed to help as he turned in 23 2/3 innings of 1.52 ERA ball after joining the Braves. His peripherals don’t wholly buy the shift in performance, but his fastball command certainly improved and that’s the foundation of his arsenal. Of course, the revelation is only one part of the process, as refining and automating the lower arm slot will continue to be a process as he starts throwing again this season. If Brach can repeat his delivery consistently, he may prove to be a significant addition to a Cubs pen who needs the help.
  • Brach should have no trouble keeping his competitive edge with the Cubs, who are facing a dogfight in a tight National League Central. There’s no tanking here, where the Reds have raised the floor with marked improvements to their rotation this offseason. The Cardinals and Brewers have made obvious win-now additions this winter as well, and while the Cubs have largely stood pat (excepting additions like Brach above), there’s little doubt they will be in the competitive mix once again. The sleeper in the division and maybe the league is the Pirates, per Ben Frederickson of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch. The PECOTA projection system has the Pirates ahead of the Cubs, and though they’ve been quiet this winter, their biggest additions were made at least year’s deadline when they traded for Chris Archer and Keone Kela. It would certainly be a surprise for the Pirates to steal the NL Central from such a crowded field, but they’re only three years removed from the most successful stretch in recent franchise history and they finished above .500 last season. A Pirates division title would be surprising, for sure, but it’s not inconceivable.
  • In a video for CBS Sports, Jim Bowden expresses optimism that Paul Goldschmidt will outperform both Bryce Harper and Manny Machado en route to an MVP-type season. Goldschmidt should certainly bolster the Cardinals offense in 2019, though his long-term future with the club remains uncertain. The Cardinals are pursuing an extension with Goldschmidt, and given the current free agent market, Goldy would be wise to at least consider locking up his long-term future now if the offer is fair.

Ryan Madson, Shawn Kelley, Sergio Romo Generating Interest

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Jan. 24: In addition to Madson and Brach (who, as Passan suggested was likely, found a home earlier today when he agreed to a deal with the Cubs), it seems that both Shawn Kelley and Sergio Romo are likely to find a landing spot in the near future.

MLB.com’s Mark Feinsand tweets that Kelley is choosing among three teams and could make a decision on his 2019 home “soon.” Fancred’s Jon Heyman, too, tweets that Kelley is being “heavily pursued,” as are both Madson and Romo.

Kelley, who’ll turn 35 in April, posted a 2.94 ERA with 9.2 K/9, 2.0 BB/9, 1.29 HR/9 and a 30.2 percent grounder rate in 49 innings between the A’s and the Nats in ’18 — his third sub-3.00 ERA in the past four seasons.

Romo, meanwhile, helped to pioneer the “opener” role with the Rays last season, making five starts in that still-developing role. The 35-year-old (36 in March) had three very successful outings and one quite ugly showing (three earned runs in a third of an inning) as an opener but turned in a 3.88 ERA with a 68-to-16 K/BB ratio in 62 2/3 innings as a more conventional reliever. Romo nailed down 25 saves for Tampa Bay and turned in a 13 percent swinging-strike ratio and a 33.1 percent chase rate.

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Cubs To Sign Brad Brach

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1:24PM: Brach will earn at least $4.35MM in guaranteed money in 2019, Rosenthal tweets.  The mutual option is also more of a dual option for the 2020 season, similar to what we’ve seen in recent contracts for Zach Britton and Yusei Kikuchi.  If the Cubs exercise their option for 2020, Brach will receive $9.5MM over the course of the two seasons.  If Brach exercises his side of the option but the Cubs do not, Brach is still under team control for 2020 but at a lesser salary.

11:59AM: The Cubs have agreed to sign free agent reliever Brad Brach, according to The Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal (Twitter link).  The deal is a one-year contract worth $3MM, as per Jon Heyman of Fancred Sports (Twitter links), and the two sides hold a mutual option for the 2020 season.  Brach, a client of Big League Management Company, will have to pass a physical before the deal is official.

After four years of excellent numbers out of the Orioles’ bullpen from 2014-17, Brach’s production stumbled in the first half of the 2018 season, as he posted a 4.85 ERA over 39 innings with Baltimore.  Brach had an untidy 4.4 BB/9 rate over that stretch, though an inflated BABIP may have somewhat unfairly contributed to Brach’s struggles.  After a deadline trade to the Braves, however, Brach looked more like his old self, delivering a 1.52 ERA, 8.4 K/9, and a 2.44 K/BB rate over 23 2/3 frames for Atlanta.

On the whole, Brach posted a career-best 46% grounder rate in 2018, though he also had a career-worst 35% hard-hit ball rate, far surpassing his previous high of 29.6%.  His fastball also averaged 94.4mph after three years of topping the 95mph threshold, though Brach also threw his fastball less often than usual last season, instead using his changeup with greater frequency in 2018 than in any season save 2015.

These warning signs and Brach’s age (33 in April) may have been enough to lower Brach’s price tag to just one guaranteed season.  (MLBTR ranked Brach 41st on our Top 50 Free Agents list, with Tim Dierkes, Steve Adams, and Jeff Todd projecting Brach for a two-year, $12MM deal.)  The mutual option does provide the right-hander with the ability to test free agency again next winter if he returns to his old form, making the deal essentially a pillow contract.

Brach served as Baltimore’s closer in 2017 when Britton was on the disabled list, and he could very well pick up some save opportunities early next season as Brandon Morrow recovers from November elbow surgery.  At the very least, Brach will provide some backing behind Pedro Strop, Carl Edwards Jr., or whomever ends up handling the ninth inning while Morrow is out, assuming Joe Maddon doesn’t deploy a committee approach.

Getting the 2013-17 version of Brach for, at most, $9.5MM over two years would be a nice coup for a Cubs team that has been facing a payroll crunch all winter.  Even the modest expenditure for Brach, however, puts Chicago into a higher Competitive Balance Tax bracket.  As per Roster Resource’s projections, the Cubs now have a luxury tax payroll over just under $229MM for next season, putting them in line for an additional tax beyond the usual 20% “first-time” rate for not only exceeding the $206MM luxury tax threshold, but exceeding it by more than $20MM.  There had been speculation that the Cubs could explore trading a big contract or two off its current roster to afford bullpen help or other acquisitions, and it remains to be seen if Theo Epstein’s front office has more moves in store to cut payroll and/or land new players.

Relief Market Notes: Kimbrel, Brach, Axford

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With Adam Ottavino leaving the board today, only one of the top nine relievers on MLBTR’s top 50 free agent list — the top member of that group, of course — remains unsigned. That seems to set the stage for the next tier of the relief market to kick into action. Cody Allen, Bud Norris, and Brad Brach all earned placements on our ranking but remain unsigned. Other still-unsigned veteran pen arms warranted honorable mention status: Justin Wilson, Ryan Madson, Oliver Perez, Adam Warren, and Tony Sipp. I recently broke down those and other names that are still available.

Here’s the latest on the relief market:

  • The Red Sox are continuing to tamp down expectations of a move to add a closer. As Chris Cotillo of MassLive.com writes, president of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski referred to free agent closer Craig Kimbrel’s Boston tenure in the past tense in comments today. He also suggested the team feels comfortable with its existing options to handle the ninth inning, naming Matt Barnes, Ryan Brasier, Tyler Thornburg, and Steven Wright as possibilities. Needless to say, that’s an interesting foursome for the defending World Series champs to propose as a slate of Kimbrel successor candidates. If there’s still a chance of a reunion with the all-time great reliever, Dombrowski didn’t hint at it. “Sometimes, you have to evaluate where you’re going to spend your dollars,” he said. “We decided to keep back the rest of the core of the club. We like our team a great deal and we think some of the guys internally can do the job. Can we get better? Perhaps. But we’ll see what takes place.”
  • With no future commitments to speak of and a path to contention, the Twins seem to be a team to watch on the market. If nothing else, the club figures to bolster its pitching staff. The aforementioned Brad Brach is among the possible targets, according to LaVelle E. Neal III of the Star Tribune (Twitter link). The Minnesota front office has certainly shown an inclination to limit its risks in free agency, and it stands to reason that Brach will be available for a lesser and shorter commitment than many of the hurlers that have gone off the board already. The 32-year-old had something of a messy 2018 season after a string of productive campaigns, which could make him a nice value proposition.
  • Veteran reliever John Axford is making no secret of his desire to return to the Blue Jays for the coming season, as Ben Nicholson-Smith of Sportsnet.ca writes. With his family rooted in Toronto, the Canadian hurler says it’s where he’d like to be. Axford’s pitch is that he’d be a good mentor for a young team — and, perhaps, will again turn into a summer trade asset. There’s certainly an argument to be made that Axford would be a good fit, particularly if he’s again willing to take a minor-league deal. As Nicholson-Smith notes, Axford is delivering plenty of heat with his fastball, and the Jays still appear in need of some pitching depth.

Braves Acquire Brad Brach

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The Braves have agreed to acquire reliever Brad Brach from the Orioles, Eduardo A. Encina of the Baltimore Sun tweets. In return for Brach, Baltimore received $250K in international bonus pool money, according to Joel Sherman of the New York Post. Both teams have announced the trade.

With the Orioles in the early stages of a full-scale rebuild and Brach set to hit free agency over the winter, the 32-year-old was an obvious trade candidate for the club. The right-handed Brach drew vast trade interest as a result in recent weeks, and he’ll bring an impressive track record to Atlanta – which will pick up the balance of his $5.165MM salary.

During his Orioles tenure, which began in 2014, Brach pitched to a 2.99 ERA/3.51 FIP with 9.42 K/9, 3.65 BB/9 and a 42.1 percent groundball rate over 327 2/3 innings. He hasn’t been quite that effective through 39 frames this season, however, with a 4.85 ERA/4.01 FIP and 8.77 K/9 against 4.38 BB/9, though he has logged a career-best 46.5 grounder percentage. Brach has also continued to bring respectable heat while posting an above-average swinging-strike percentage (12.7).

The Braves, who have surprised this season during a playoff-contending campaign, will benefit from Brach’s presence if he’s able to channel his past success. Even though the Braves are 55-47 and sit just 1 1/2 games behind the NL East-leading Phillies and one back of a wild-card spot, their bullpen hasn’t been a strength this season. Their relievers entered Sunday 19th in the majors in ERA and 16th in fWAR, in part because closer Arodys Vizcaino has missed time on account of shoulder issues. As a result, the Braves have been aggressively seeking to upgrade their relief corps leading up to the July 31 non-waiver deadline. Brach’s the second notable bullpen pickup the team has made this week, in fact, joining just-acquired southpaw Jonny Venters. The Braves also landed Venters for $250K in international money.

Thanks to former general manager John Coppolella’s misdeeds, the Braves are unable to spend beyond $300K on any international prospect this year. Therefore, the money’s not difficult for them to part with if it means bolstering their playoff chances for this season. On the other side, the Orioles haven’t participated in the international market in recent years, largely because of ownership, but they’re committed to changing that as they rebuild. The money the Orioles acquired Sunday may help them sign Cuban outfield prospect Victor Victor Mesa, per Emily Waldon and Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic.

Brach follows shortstop Manny Machado (Dodgers) and fellow reliever Zach Britton (Yankees) as the third proven veteran to exit the Orioles via trade this month. The team’s likely not done, either, as other established members of its roster have come up in trade rumors. Center fielder Adam Jones is part of that group, though he may deviate from Brach, Machado and Britton in finishing the season in Baltimore.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Trade Rumors: Brach, Braves, Cubs, Wheeler, Harvey, Marlins, Cards

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Both the Braves and Cubs are making pushes for Orioles reliever Brad Brach, Roch Kubatko of MASNsports.com tweets. Brach, a pending free agent on a $5.165MM salary, looks like a shoo-in to move prior to Tuesday’s non-waiver deadline. The 32-year-old has endured an uncharacteristically mediocre season, however, with a 4.85 ERA/4.01 FIP and unexciting strikeout and walk rates (8.77 K/9, 4.38 BB/9) over 39 innings.

More rumors with the deadline nearing…

  • No fewer than six teams have shown legitimate interest in Mets right-hander Zack Wheeler, though New York doesn’t feel it has to trade him, Mark Feinsand of MLB.com reports. Wheeler, who’s making just $1.9MM this season, still has another year of affordable control remaining. As such, “there’s no urgency for the Mets to move him,” a National League talent evaluator tells Feinsand.
  • Meanwhile, ex-Met and current Reds righty Matt Harvey is likely to move by Tuesday, per Feinsand. Harvey has pitched better in Cincinnati than he did in New York this season, but the soon-to-be free agent still hasn’t come close to replicating his halcyon days. As a result, teams aren’t showing much excitement over the 29-year-old, Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic relays.
  • More from Feinsand, who observes that the Marlins shouldn’t have difficulty finding a taker for pending free-agent reliever Brad Ziegler. In the end, though, it may be a relatively quiet deadline for the Marlins, who are “intent on keeping their crop of controllable players, including their young, talented bullpen pieces,” Feinsand writes. That may rule out trades involving the likes of Kyle Barraclough, Drew Steckenrider and Adam Conley, each of whom has come up in the rumor mill this summer. Unlike those three, Ziegler hasn’t enjoyed a strong season overall (4.06 ERA/4.69 FIP with 6.18 K/9 and 3.0 BB/9 in 51 innings), but the 38-year-old has gotten much better results since June and is continuing to induce ground balls at a ridiculous clip (74.5 percent). Ziegler has approximately $3.5MM coming his way through season’s end. The Cubs, Indians and possibly the Red Sox are among the teams with interest in Ziegler, Joe Frisaro of MLB.com reports.
  • There have been rumblings about the Braves trading young left-hander Luiz Gohara for relief help, but that’s not going to happen, according to Rosenthal. Rather, Atlanta’s only going to move Gohara (or pitching prospect Kolby Allard) if it gets controllable starting pitching in return.
  • “A few teams” have interest in Cardinals minor league third baseman Patrick Wisdom, per Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch. Regardless of whether Wisdom’s dealt this season, Goold regards him as a lock to be out of the Cardinals organization by next year. The Cardinals spent the 52nd overall pick on Wisdom back in 2012, but he still hasn’t made it to the majors. The 26-year-old has shown some promise of late at the Triple-A level, where he homered 31 times and posted a .263 ISO in 506 plate appearances last season. That power came with a so-so .243/.310/.507 slash, which Wisdom has improved on in 2018 (.293/.373/.485 in 370 PAs).

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