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Latest On Twins’ Rotation Targets

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Even after signing left-hander J.A. Happ to a one-year, $8MM contract late last month, the Twins may not be done addressing their rotation. They remain in touch with one of their own free agents, right-hander Jake Odorizzi, and were in attendance for righty Jake Arrieta’s throwing session last Friday, La Velle E. Neal III of the Star Tribune reports. The Twins will stay in touch with Arrieta, according to Neal.

Odorizzi spent the previous three seasons with the Twins and combined for a 4.11 ERA/4.34 SIERA in 337 innings. In his best season, 2019, Odorizzi earned an All-Star nod and pitched to a 3.51 ERA/4.14 SIERA with a a career-best 27.1 percent strikeout rate and an 8.1 percent walk rate over 159 frames. The Twins then handed Odorizzi a $17.8MM qualifying offer, and he accepted it instead of trying his luck in free agency.

Minnesota was no doubt expecting another quality showing from Odorizzi when it gave him the QO, but it wasn’t to be in 2020. Injuries, including to his back, chest and right middle finger, limited him to 13 2/3 innings of 10-run ball. Odorizzi doesn’t seem to be a free agent at the ideal time, then, but considering his positive track record with the Royals, Rays and Twins, he could still land a solid multiyear payday this offseason. Other than the Twins, Jon Morosi of MLB.com lists the Angels, Red Sox, Blue Jays, Giants and perhaps the Mets as teams vying for the soon-to-be 31-year-old.

Either Odorizzi or Arrieta would fill out a Twins rotation that currently has Happ, Kenta Maeda, Jose Berrios, Michael Pineda and Randy Dobnak comprising its top five. Of course, unlike Odorizzi, Arrieta probably isn’t in line for better than a one-year contract. While Arrieta is a former NL Cy Young winner (2015) with the Cubs, he’s now on the market after a pair of disappointing seasons with the Phillies. Arrieta, 35 in March, put up his worst ERA since 2012 last year (5.08) in 44 1/3 innings. He also logged a meager 16.8 percent strikeout percentage – one of the worst of his career – though he did record an above-average walk rate of 8.4 percent and a 51.8 percent groundball rate.

Jays Receiving Trade Interest In Gurriel, Grichuk

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  • Also from Robert Murray, Blue Jays outfielders Lourdes Gurriel Jr. and Randal Grichuk are drawing trade interest.  The addition of George Springer has created a surplus in Toronto’s outfield, with Grichuk seemingly relegated to fourth outfielder duty as Gurriel and Teoscar Hernandez are slated for the corners.  It’s safe to guess that Gurriel is the more sought-after player, since Gurriel is over two years younger than Grichuk and has a less-expensive contract — Gurriel is owed $13.4MM through the 2023 season, while Grichuk is owed $29MM.  One of the outfielders could be dangled a way of obtaining pitching, since the Jays continue to look for both rotation and bullpen help.

    [SOURCE LINK]
  • Also from Robert Murray, Blue Jays outfielders Lourdes Gurriel Jr. and Randal Grichuk are drawing trade interest.  The addition of George Springer has created a surplus in Toronto’s outfield, with Grichuk seemingly relegated to fourth outfielder duty as Gurriel and Teoscar Hernandez are slated for the corners.  It’s safe to guess that Gurriel is the more sought-after player, since Gurriel is over two years younger than Grichuk and has a less-expensive contract — Gurriel is owed $13.4MM through the 2023 season, while Grichuk is owed $29MM.  One of the outfielders could be dangled a way of obtaining pitching, since the Jays continue to look for both rotation and bullpen help.

Blue Jays Interested In Trevor Rosenthal

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The Braves are one of the teams that have checked in on free-agent third baseman Justin Turner, according to Jon Heyman of MLB Network. It’s unclear whether the Braves are among the reported four finalists for Turner, whom the Dodgers, Blue Jays and Brewers have also courted. Turner, 36, spent 2014-20 as a Dodger and was one of the majors’ most valuable third basemen in that span. There’s a clear need at the position for the Braves, who received awful production there from Austin Riley, Adeiny Hechavarría and Johan Camargo in 2020. They’ve done nothing to upgrade the spot this winter.

  • The Blue Jays are looking to continue their active offseason by adding another pitcher, reports Robert Murray of FanSided. That could take the form of a high-leverage reliever or an additional starter. Among the players under consideration, per Murray, is right-handed reliever Trevor Rosenthal. The hard-throwing Rosenthal had a fantastic rebound campaign in 2020, tossing 23.2 innings of 1.90 ERA/2.31 SIERA ball with the Royals and Padres.
  • The Red Sox have interest in reuniting with corner infielder Travis Shaw and right-handed reliever Brandon Workman, Rob Bradford of WEEI.com and Chris Cotillo of MassLive.com report. Shaw was last with the Red Sox in 2016, after which they traded him to the Brewers. He was a member of the Blue Jays in 2020, and though Shaw was a solid hitter earlier in his career, he has been less productive of late. The 30-year-old slashed .239/.306/.411 in 180 plate appearances with the Blue Jays last season. As for Workman, he has spent most of his career with the Red Sox, but they dealt him to the Phillies prior to last year’s trade deadline. Workman was excellent at times in Boston bullpen in parts of 2013-19, but he could only muster a 5.95 ERA in 19 2/3 innings between the two clubs a year ago.

Blue Jays Sign Marcus Semien

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JANUARY 30: The Blue Jays have announced the deal.

JANUARY 26: The Toronto Blue Jays continued their push to join the top tier of contenders in the American League today. The Jays reached an agreement to sign free agent shortstop Marcus Semien to a one-year, $18MM deal. In Semien, GM Ross Atkins lands a high-ceiling bat for 2021 and takes another significant piece off the board.

Semien became a star during his six seasons in Oakland, and yet, it wasn’t a clean, linear process. He began his career with the White Sox, but found himself headed to Oakland as part of the December 2014 Jeff Samardzija deal. For the next three seasons, Semien produced like a second-division starter, averaging 1.98 fWAR per 600 plate appearances. In 2018, the San Francisco native enjoyed a mini-breakout by cutting his strikeout rate from 22.0 percent to 18.6 percent and bumping his fWAR total to 3.9fWAR. Much of that hike in value, however, came on the defensive end.

His bat caught up in a major way the following season as Semien slashed .285/.369/.522 with a career-high 33 home runs, 13.7 percent strikeout rate, 10.6 percent walk rate, and 138 wRC+. While Semien’s 7.6 fWAR season earned him a third-place finish in AL MVP voting, it’s fair to question whether another hulk-out season is coming. He’s never been an All-Star (for what that’s worth), and outside of his galvanizing 2019 campaign, Semien hasn’t posted a wRC+ over 100. Even considering a down 2020, however, he has consistently been between 92 and 98 wRC+. Take that with the potential value he brings on defense, and even if Semien doesn’t re-emerge as an MVP candidate, Toronto has acquired a high-floor player with potential for more.

Defensively, his glovework has received mixed reviews: subpar numbers by Statcast’s Outs Above Average, but generally more positive scores (at least since 2018) by DRS and UZR. Regardless, moving to second base should secure his glove as a plus asset. For that matter, Semien’s willingness to play second base is a boon for the Blue Jays. They can now continue to flex star Bo Bichette at shortstop while moving Cavan Biggio across the diamond to third, as notes Shi Davidi of Sportsnet.ca (via Twitter).

Vladimir Guerrero Jr. has notably been preparing himself for reps at third base, though he’s more to likely start most games at first. That foursome – Guerrero, Semien, Bichette, and Biggio – has the potential to form one of the most fearsome infield groups in the game – especially if their homegrown trio continues to grow into their vast potential.

This isn’t the first firework Toronto has lit this winter. Their lineup now features a well-fed George Springer, Kirby Yates and Tyler Chatwood will help the bullpen, and don’t forget that the offseason began with the Jays keeping Robbie Ray in their rotation. Even after the additions of Springer and Semien (plus Hyun Jin Ryu last winter), their luxury tax payroll is projected around $146MM. While that’s miles from the luxury tax line, it does represent a spending increase, both in terms of the luxury tax count and in real dollars, where their year-over-year payroll has jumped from approximately $118MM to $132MM.

In terms of value, the Jays did well to get a talent like Semien on a one-year deal. MLBTR predicted a one-year, $14MM contract for Semien, so he’ll make slightly more in total dollars than we expected. Seeing Andrelton Simmons sign for $7.5MM less might feel disheartening at first, but Semien has the higher ceiling, and if nothing else, Toronto maintains the long-term integrity of the plan to keep Bichette at short by adding Semien over Simmons. Toronto has infield prospects Jordan Groshans, Orelvis Martinez and Austin Martin who could be ready to join the lineup before long, and Bichette has as good a chance as any of them to stick at short.

At second, Semien should bolster their lineup on both sides of the ball while maintaining long-term flexibility. That kind of flexibility has, in some ways, surpassed even raw talent in terms of the value it holds for owners. Not to mention, with Freddy Galvis signing in Baltimore and Simmons in Minnesota, the pool of free agent shortstops is rapidly shrinking. Didi Gregorius is now the top option still available in free agency, with Jonathan Villar and Hanser Alberto behind him.

For Semien, he comes just a touch shy of what he would have made had the A’s extended a qualifying offer. Had Oakland extended the $18.9MM qualifying offer, they would have received a draft pick when Semien signed elsewhere, but they were wary of issuing a contract of that size, even on a one-year term. Semien now gets to re-enter free agency next year as part of the stacked class of free agent shortstops that may include Francisco Lindor, Trevor Story, Corey Seager, Carlos Correa, and Javier Baez.

MLB Network’s Jon Heyman (via Twitter) first broke news of the deal, while ESPN’s Jeff Passan added the terms of the deal (via Twitter), and the Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal chimed in with Toronto’s defensive plans for Semien. Many have also noted that former All-Star second baseman Carlos Baerga broke this news earlier today on instagram. Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Blue Jays Acquire Steven Matz

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9:15pm: The teams have announced the deal.

8:35pm: The Blue Jays and Mets are closing in on a swap that would send lefty Steven Matz to Toronto, per Jeff Passan of ESPN.com (via Twitter). Robert Murray of Fansided tweeted that a trade between the clubs was coming; Michael Mayer of Metsmerized had tweeted that a Matz move was in the works.

Three right-handed pitchers will head back to New York in the arrangement: Josh Winckowski, Sean Reid-Foley, and Yennsy Diaz. (Via Murray, on Twitter, and Ben Nicholson-Smith of Sportsnet.ca, also via Twitter.)

Matz, 29, is due $5.2MM after agreeing to avoid arbitration. He will qualify for free agency after the 2021 campaign. The Mets obviously determined they could better allocate that salary for other needs. Whether it’ll be part of a big payout to lure Trevor Bauer remains to be seen; there’s still no reason to believe anything is imminent on that front.

While he has at times featured as a high-quality big-league starter, Matz has had his share of difficulties of late. The Long Island native wraps up a six-year run with the Mets having thrown 579 2/3 innings of 4.35 ERA ball.

While Matz made thirty starts apiece in 2018 and 2019, arm issues were a recurring problem. He spent time on the injured list in 2020 and ended the campaign with a brutal 9.68 ERA in just 30 2/3 frames of action.

That unfortunate short-season effort came with a few bright spots. Though Matz surrendered a ton of hard contact, he also managed a career-best 25.4% strikeout percentage while delivering his sinker at an average of 94.5 mph.

Clearly, the Jays believe Matz still possesses the necessary physical tools to deliver a good number of useful innings. He’ll likely have a chance to battle for a rotation spot in camp, though the team could also plan to use him in a swingman or even pure relief capacity.

The Mets will get some reward for deciding to tender Matz a contract. None of the three arms acquired come with high-grade prospect billing, but each will have a chance to contribute in the near term.

Both Reid-Foley and Diaz have debuted in the majors, meaning they also occupy 40-man roster spots (albeit with options remaining). The former threw 71 2/3 innings of 4.40 ERA ball over three seasons with the Jays, carrying a suboptimal 76:48 cumulative K/BB ratio. Diaz has just one appearance to his name, but turned in a solid showing at the Double-A level in 2019.

As for Winckowski, he’s still due for further seasoning. The 22-year-old reached the High-A level in 2019. Over 127 1/3 total frames that year, he turned in a sturdy 2.69 ERA. Winckowski will (again) be eligible for the Rule 5 draft after the 2021 campaign.

Brewers Among Teams Showing Interest In Justin Turner

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Yesterday we learned that free agent Justin Turner had a final four teams he was considering for 2021. The Dodgers and Blue Jays have long been known as interested parties, but now we can add the Brewers as the third team looking to woo Turner, per Jon Heyman of the MLB Network. Turner wants a four-year deal, but that seems unlikely for the 36-year-old. The Dodgers hope to bring him back for two, but if another team is willing to go to three years for the GEM Agency client, that could be enough to pry Turner from LA. Whether the Blue Jays, Brewers, or the final mystery team are willing to make that kind of commitment to Turner is TBD.

The Brewers are an interesting entrant into the Turner sweepstakes. They have about $25MM before hitting their luxury tax payroll from 2020, so there’s room for a splashy addition if the Brewers are going to maintain their payroll. That’s a big “if,” however. The Brewers have been largely inactive thus far, however, with their only Major League contract going to infielder Daniel Robertson, who figures to play a reserve role for Milwaukee.

The Brewers have a host of young, promising, but unproven infield contributors who could move around the diamond to accommodate Turner.  Keston Hiura demands a lineup spot, and he’ll probably play the keystone, while Luis Urias and Orlando Arcia are their other likely starters. Arcia has had more than enough time to establish himself, and outside of some postseason and big-game heroics, he hasn’t done enough to guarantee his starting spot. A career slash line of .244/.295/.366, with a roughly-average 20.1 percent strikeout rate, and below-average 6.6 percent walk rate definitely leaves room for improvement. Turner’s 130 wRC+, for instance, would give the Brewers’ lineup quite the boost from Arcia’s 71 wRC+ career mark.

Blue Jays One Of Four Teams In On Justin Turner

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Justin Turner has four options on the table that would place him on a contender, with the Dodgers and Blue Jays two of the four, per MLB Insider Jon Heyman (via Twitter). Still, Heyman notes, the Dodgers are confident they will be able to bring Turner back to Chavez Ravine. The hold-up continues to be the length of the deal, as Los Angeles targets a two-year pact, while the 36-year-old seeks four years. Speculatively speaking, looking for other potential landing spots leads naturally to the NL East, where any of the Braves, Nationals, Mets, or Marlins could theoretically find room for Turner. Elsewhere…

Blue Jays Among Teams Considering Andrelton Simmons

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The Phillies, Reds, and Jays (among others) are those taking a look at Andrelton Simmons, per MLB Insider Jon Heyman (via Twitter). The Phillies and Reds are natural fits for the former Angel, given their openings at shortstop. The Blue Jays have notably explored many avenues for improvement. In the case of Simmons, it would mean raising their defensive efficiency in the infield, presumably by installing Simmons at short and letting Bo Bichette slide to third, where he would no doubt be a plus defender. At present, it would be surprising if the Phillies and Reds aren’t able to nab a shortstop apiece from the group of Simmons, Marcus Semien, and Didi Gregorius, given their clear need compared to other teams around the league. Considering the group of shortstops that could become free agents next year, teams could be trying to limit their long-term commitments at the position, though that’s not as likely as negotiations simply hanging up because of total dollars as teams hunt value deals.

Latest On Brad Hand

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TODAY: The market for Hand seems to be shaping up. Hand could decide on his new team as early as this weekend, as MLB.com’s Mark Feinsand (Twitter link) hears from several teams who “have been told that Hand wants to make a decision soon.”

Specifically, the Angels, Dodgers, Mets, and Jays are all at least in the conversation for Hand, per MLB Insider Jon Heyman (via Twitter). Heyman also adds the Nationals as the newest team to emerge as a potential suitor. If the Nationals can find the money for Hand, he could serve as a replacement for free-agent Sean Doolittle. As things stand now, the Nats are without a proven southpaw in the pen, with non-roster invitee Luis Avilan as the only lefty on the 40-man roster besides rookies Sam Clay, Seth Romero, and Ben Braymer.

JANUARY 20: Free-agent reliever Brad Hand has received interest from several teams since Cleveland unexpectedly cut ties with him in late October. The Blue Jays are among the clubs that have been linked to Hand, and Jon Heyman of MLB Network reports that “they’ve had an offer out to” the three-time All-Star.

Hand would be the third noteworthy addition of the offseason for the Blue Jays’ bullpen, which has already landed Kirby Yates (one of Hand’s ex-Padres teammates) and Tyler Chatwood this week. Yates looks like a candidate to close for the Blue Jays in 2021, but that job could go to Hand if the team signs him. Despite losing almost 2 mph on his fastball, Hand posted his latest in a long line of productive seasons in 2020, as the 30-year-old registered a sparkling 2.05 ERA/2.80 SIERA in 22 innings. Hand also converted all 16 of his save opportunities and ranked 13th among relievers in K-BB percentage (29.1).

Toronto and others have new competition for Hand in the Angels, who “have emerged as a possibility” to sign him, Robert Murray of FanSided tweets. He would be another major late-game acquisition for a Halos club that swung a trade with the Reds earlier this offseason for right-hander Raisel Iglesias and picked up southpaw Alex Claudio in free agency. The Angels could still use another lefty for their righty-heavy relief corps, though, and Hand may be their answer.

Blue Jays Sign George Springer

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TODAY: The Blue Jays have officially announced the signing.  Sportsnet.ca’s Shi Davidi (via Twitter) also has a full breakdown of the contract, which includes an eight-team no-trade clause.  Springer receives a $10MM signing bonus, a $22MM salary in 2021, $28MM in 2022, then $22.5MM each year from 2023-26.  There is also a $150K bonus if Springer wins an MVP award, as well as $50K bonuses for other achievements like a Gold Glove, Silver Slugger, World Series MVP Awards, or an All-Star selection.

JANUARY 19, 9:58pm: It’s a six-year, $150MM pact, Jon Heyman of MLB Network tweets.

9:54pm: The Jays and Springer have a deal, pending a physical, Jeff Passan of ESPN tweets.

9:36pm: The Blue Jays and free-agent outfielder George Springer are closing in on an agreement, per Joel Sherman of the New York Post. Brendon Kuhn of Blue Jays Nation first reported the two sides had a contract in place, pending a physical. Springer is a client of Excel Sports Management.

George Springer | Erik Williams-USA TODAY Sports

This is a monumental pickup for the Blue Jays, who have been in on virtually every big name this offseason as they seek to improve their roster off a playoff campaign in 2020. The Jays had largely come up short until Tuesday, but that’s going to change with the addition of Springer.

It would be difficult to do much better on the open market than Springer, a three-time All-Star who thrived as a member of the Astros from 2014-20. Springer took 3,567 plate appearances as an Astro and batted .270/.361/.491 (134 wRC+) with 174 home runs. He helped the team to a pair of pennants and a World Series championship in the process. Springer was outstanding in the playoffs with the Astros, evidenced by his 19 home runs – the fourth most in the history of the postseason.

As a result of his success in Houston, MLBTR predicted when the offseason began that Springer would ink a five-year, $125MM contract in free agency. The Blue Jays and Mets seemingly showed more interest in the 31-year-old than anyone else this winter, and New York did offer around $120MM to $125MM over six years, according to Mark Feinsand of MLB.com. However, Springer is taking the higher proposal – a record deal for the Jays – and heading north to join a burgeoning Toronto team that will have to overcome the Rays and Yankees in the American League East.

Springer figures to take over in center field for Toronto, which started Randal Grichuk for most of 2020 but has never seemed content with him at the position. The Springer pickup may help lead to the end of the Grichuk-Blue Jays union, as the team has Lourdes Gurriel Jr. and Teoscar Hernandez as corner outfield options, and it may not be done adding. According to both Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic and Heyman, another former Astro – Michael Brantley – is a possibility for the team in free agency. Brantley is friends with Springer and would provide Toronto yet another big bat. “There’s legit legs” regarding a Brantley-Toronto agreement, and the club’s “very open to it,” Scott Mitchell of TSN tweets.

The Springer signing will have draft-related ramifications for both the Blue Jays and Astros in 2021. Because Houston gave Springer an $18.9MM qualifying offer (which he rejected), the team will receive a fourth-round pick as compensation for his departure. For signing Springer, Toronto will surrender the No. 54 overall pick in next summer’s draft and $500K in international bonus pool money. The pick probably isn’t going to do much to make up for Springer’s exit for the Astros, though, and the Jays likely aren’t upset to lose the selection and pool money in exchange for one of baseball’s best outfielders.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

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