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Cardinals Acquire Riley O’Brien From Mariners

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The Cardinals and Mariners got together on a minor trade yesterday, with St. Louis acquiring right-hander Riley O’Brien from the Mariners, according to MLB.com’s transactions log. The return headed to Seattle in exchange for O’Brien is not currently known, but figures to be insignificant. O’Brien is slated to hit minor league free agency if not added to the 40-man roster. While the Cardinals have not announced that O’Brien’s contract will be selected, they have just 38 players on their 40-man meaning no corresponding move would be necessary to do so.

O’Brien, 28, was an eighth-round pick in the 2017 draft by Tampa Bay. He pitched well in three seasons with the organization while seeing time as both a starter and reliever. By the 2019 season, he had reached Double-A with a 3.93 ERA and 24.2% strikeout rate in 68 2/3 innings of work at the level. Though O’Brien did not pitch in the 2020 campaign thanks to the cancelled minor league season, he was swapped to the Reds in a deadline deal that brought Cody Reed to the Rays that summer.

O’Brien spent almost the entire 2021 season at the Reds’ Triple-A affiliate in Louisville, where he struggled somewhat to a 4.55 ERA across 23 appearances (22 starts). Despite that uninspiring performance, O’Brien was called up to make his big league debut near the end of September. Unfortunately, his sole appearance in the big leagues during the 2021 season did not go well as he walked three and allowed two home runs in just 1 1/3 innings of work. Cincinnati retained O’Brien on their 40-man roster throughout the 2021-22 offseason but ultimately designated the then-27-year-old righty for assignment in April in order to make room for left-hander Nick Lodolo on the 40-man roster.

That led the Reds to ship O’Brien to Seattle, where the Mariners had an open 40-man roster spot to offer the righty. While he returned to the big leagues in May and pitched a scoreless inning out of the bullpen, O’Brien’s 2022 season left plenty to be desired overall as he struggled to convert to full-time relief, posting a 7.03 ERA in 39 2/3 innings of work at the Triple-A level after being outrighted off the club’s 40-man roster in June.

Difficult as the 2022 season was, O’Brien returned to the Mariners in 2023 and pitched far better than he had the year before. Though he did not manager to make his way back onto the 40-man roster, O’Brien dominated the hitter-friendly PCL to the tune of a 2.29 ERA in 55 innings of work this year while striking out a whopping 37.7% of batters faced. Given those fantastic numbers at the Triple-A level this year, it’s easy to see why the Cardinals, who are known to be looking for bullpen upgrades this offseason, would be interested in taking a chance on O’Brien and finding out if his strong 2023 season in the minors could carry over to the big leagues in 2024.

Blue Jays Exercise Two-Year Club Option On Chad Green

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The Blue Jays announced this morning that the club has exercised its two-year club option on the services of veteran right-hander Chad Green. Green will now earn $21MM total across the 2024 and 2025 seasons. Green signed an unusual contract with Toronto this past offseason that afforded the club a three-year, $27MM team option, which if declined would offer Green a one-year, $6.5MM player option. If both of those options were declined, the Blue Jays would then have a final two-year, $21MM option. Evidently, the first club option and Green’s player option were both declined before Toronto picked up the two-year option.

Green, 32, missed most of the 2022 and ’23 campaigns while rehabbing from Tommy John surgery. A look at Green’s basic run prevention stats would indicate that the right-hander struggled in his return to action in 2023, given his 5.25 ERA that was 17% worse than league average. That doesn’t tell the whole story, however, as Green pitched just twelve innings with Toronto this year and had excellent peripheral stats. He struck out a whopping 30.8% of batters faced while walking just 7.7% with one home run allowed, giving him a much more palatable 2.67 FIP.

That sort of performance is much more in line with Green’s career numbers. After an uneven rookie season where he was used primarily as a starter in 2016, Green became one of the most reliable set-up men in the game from 2017-2022, as he posted a 2.96 ERA (147 ERA+) with a 3.01 FIP and a 33.4% strikeout rate. Impressive as those numbers are, they’re actually somewhat bogged down by a brief return to starting in 2019. Over the course of his entire career, Green sports a sterling 2.88 ERA across 338 innings out of the bullpen. That’s the sixth-best figure among all relievers with at least 300 innings of work since Green’s debut in 2016, surpassed only by Josh Hader, Kenley Jansen, Raisel Iglesias, Blake Treinen, and Aroldis Chapman.

Of course, it’s an open question whether or not Green can reach those heights again in his age-33 and -34 campaigns. After all, Green heads into his mid-thirties coming off a lengthy rehab from surgery. While his velocity did not appear to be impacted during his brief run in the majors this year, it’s hard to say what sort of impact the surgery could have on him over a full season. Between his age, the fact that he hasn’t pitched a full season since 2021, and the volatility of relievers in general, there’s a fair bit of risk in offering Green a two-year, $21MM guarantee even as the righty clearly has the potential to be among the better relievers in baseball.

Given that combination of risk and potentially significant reward, the two-year $21MM pact seems like a reasonable price point for both sides of the arrangement. The interesting structure of the contract left MLBTR readers divided in a recent poll, with each of those four possible outcomes (Green hitting free agency and each of the three potential options being picked up) receiving between 20% and 30% of the total vote. That being said, with the Toronto bullpen scheduled to lose Jordan Hicks and Jay Jackson to free agency this offseason, retaining Green gives the club a quality set-up man to pair with Erik Swanson in front of closer Jordan Romano in 2024.

Giants To Exercise Club Option On Alex Cobb; Sean Manaea Opts Out Of Contract

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The Giants intend to exercise their $10MM club option on Alex Cobb’s services for the 2024 season, according to Jon Heyman of the New York Post (X link).  In another notable Giants pitching development, Andrew Baggarly of The Athletic reports (via X) that Sean Manaea has elected to opt out of the final year of his contract, foregoing a $12.5MM salary to test free agency.

It was widely expected that Cobb’s option would be picked up, though a possible wrench was thrown into the mix with last week’s news that Cobb was undergoing hip surgery.  Though Cobb might not be able to return to a big league mound until May at the earliest, the Giants decided that the $8MM net decision (Cobb’s option contained a $2MM buyout) was still worth the investment.  Obviously the surgery was no surprise to the team, as Cobb has battled hip problems for much of the season and had his year officially ended by a 15-day injured list placement in late September.

Cobb signed with San Francisco in November 2021 on what is now a three-year, $28MM deal with the option exercised.  The results have been more than solid, as Cobb has a 3.80 ERA over 301 innings for the Giants, and he was even an All-Star this past season.  His strikeout rate, barrel rate, and total barrels declined sharply from 2022 to 2023, though Cobb also improved his walk rate and his fastball velocity from season to season.  Cobb also has a 59.4% grounder rate across the last two seasons, and a .327 BABIP indicates that his numbers might’ve been better if it wasn’t for the Giants’ subpar infield defense.

Injuries have also been a factor, as Cobb has been on the IL four separate times during his Giants tenure.  That said, Cobb still brought some durability to the rotation since he and Logan Webb were the only two starters San Francisco used in a normal starting role for much of the 2023 season.  The Giants addressed the other rotation spots in a number of ways, ranging for actual starts, piggyback-style pitcher usage, or an opener/bulk pitcher mix.

Manaea was one of the many Giants pitchers used in this fashion, as he started only 10 of his 37 appearances.  However, Manaea often found himself in a bulk pitcher or piggyback role, and he finished with 117 2/3 innings pitched while posting a 4.44 ERA and an above-average 25.7% strikeout rate.  It was a pretty decent course-correction for Manaea after some early struggles cost him a full rotation job, and it was a good bounce-back after a down year with the Padres in 2022.

Despite that down year, Manaea landed a two-year, $25MM deal with the Giants last winter, with the opt-out built into the contract so Manaea could quickly re-enter the market if he had a better platform year.  While not a hands-down breakout year on paper, the left-hander should be able to find another multi-year deal heading into his age-32 season, likely with a team that wants him in a full-time starting role.

Heading into 2024, San Francisco’s rotation consists of Webb, Cobb (when healthy), DeSclafani (if healthy), Stripling (who passed on his own opt-out opportunity), and Kyle Harrison, with Tristan Beck, Jakob Junis, and Keaton Winn on hand as depth options.  The Giants might well use at least one rotation spot for another mix-and-match assortment of pitchers, but the club is known to be looking for pitchers to bring more stability to the starting five.  Yoshinobu Yamamoto is known to be on the Giants’ radar, and depending on how aggressive the team plans to be, any number of top free agent or trade options could be explored.

Marlins Decline Club Options On Johnny Cueto, Matt Barnes

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As expected, the Marlins won’t be picking up their club options on two pitchers.  The New York Post’s Jon Heyman reports that Johnny Cueto’s $10.5MM option will be bought out for $2.5MM, and Daniel Alvarez-Montes of El Extrabase reports that Matt Barnes’ $9MM option will be bought out for $2.25MM.  (Both links to X.)

Cueto signed a one-year contract worth $8.5MM in guaranteed money last winter, as the Marlins saw the veteran righty as a way to add some experience and depth to an overall young rotation.  Unfortunately, the gambit didn’t pay off, as Cueto posted a 6.02 ERA while tossing only 52 1/3 innings over 13 appearances.  Right biceps tightness sent Cueto to the injured list for over the half the season, and he had a 15-day IL stint due to a viral infection at the end of August.

2024 will be Cueto’s 17th Major League season and his age-38 season, though there hasn’t been any indication that the right-hander is considering retirement.  He’ll probably have to settle for a minor league deal in the wake of his underwhelming year in Miami, but teams are forever in need of pitching, and Cueto will likely get another look to see if he has anything left in the tank.  As recently as 2022, Cueto had a 3.35 ERA in 158 1/3 innings with the White Sox, so a return to that form might be possible if he can just stay healthy.

Injuries also ruined Barnes’ season, as his 2023 campaign was prematurely ended by a hip surgery in July.  Barnes struggled to a 5.48 ERA in 21 1/3 innings prior to that IL trip.  Though a .348 BABIP and 4.35 SIERA indicated that Barnes was somewhat unlucky, he posted a below-average strikeout rate for the second consecutive season.

Between Barnes’ hip surgery, a shoulder injury in 2022, and generally a lot of up-and-down performance over the last three seasons, it was a pretty easy call for the Marlins to decline the option.  Miami acquired Barnes in a trade with the Red Sox last offseason, and Barnes’ two-year, $18.75MM deal was initially signed with the Sox back in July 2021.  Since Boston covered a good chunk of Barnes’ 2023 salary, it was a relatively risk-free move for the Marlins, especially since Richard Bleier (who went to the Sox in the trade) also didn’t pitch well last year.

Dodgers Exercise Blake Treinen’s Club Option; Decline Daniel Hudson’s Option

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The Dodgers announced their full list of option decisions, including the previously-reported news that the club options on Lance Lynn, Joe Kelly, and Alex Reyes were all declined.  L.A. also declined Daniel Hudson’s $6.5MM club option for the 2024 season, but the team is exercising its club option on reliever Blake Treinen.  Jack Harris of the Los Angeles Times reports (via X) that Treinen’s club option is worth $1MM.

Treinen has pitched only five Major League innings since the start of the 2022 season, as the right-hander has battled shoulder problems that required a surgery almost exactly a year ago.  Treinen was able to start a rehab assignment last August but threw only 2 1/3 innings in the minors over three appearances.

Even after two lost years for Treinen, it’s still a pretty low-cost risk for the Dodgers to exercise their $1MM option on the 35-year-old.  The size of Treinen’s option wasn’t set in stone, as the terms of his May 2022 extension with the club dictated that the club option would be worth anywhere from $1MM to $7MM based on various health-related factors.  Since Treinen ended up not pitching at all in 2023, his option ended up clocking in at the lowest possible amount.

Hudson tore his left ACL in June 2022, which ended that season and kept him on the sidelines for almost a full year.  While he returned to pitch in three games this summer, Hudson then hit the injured list again due to an MCL sprain in his right knee, and he was also bothered by ankle tendinitis.  With these injuries hampering both his career and his quality of life over the last two years, Hudson has hinted that he might bring his 14-year MLB career to a close.

Braves Decline Mutual Option On Brad Hand

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The Braves announced that they have declined their end of Brad Hand’s $7MM mutual option for the 2024 season.  Hand will instead receive a $500K buyout.  The Atlanta Journal-Constitution’s Justin Toscano reported earlier today that the Braves were expected to pass Hand’s mutual option, so the 33-year-old southpaw will again return to the open market.

There wasn’t much suspense behind the decision, as Hand struggled to a 7.50 ERA over 18 innings after coming to Atlanta from Colorado at the trade deadline.  Advanced metrics (such as a 49.6% strand rate) indicate that Hand was quite unlucky to post that 7.50 ERA, yet the Braves weren’t willing to take the $6.5MM bet that Hand would fare better in 2024.

Hand signed a one-year, $2MM deal with the Rockies last winter that initially contained a club option for 2024, but that club option became a mutual option once Hand was traded.  It was essentially a technicality, as mutual options are rarely picked up by both sides anyway.  Over the full 2023 campaign, Hand had a 5.53 ERA over 53 2/3 innings with Colorado and Atlanta, with a below average 9.3% walk rate.  While still dominant against left-handed batters, Hand was hit hard by righty swingers this season, running contrary to his normally solid career splits.

Despite those uninspiring numbers, Hand’s 25% strikeout rate and above-average hard-contact metrics are perhaps more reflective of his actual quality during the 2023 season, as his 3.87 SIERA was well below his 5.53 ERA.  This will be the case that Hand’s representatives will present to other teams in free agency, though it would be a surprise to see the left-hander get anything more than one guaranteed year.

Entering his age-34 season, Hand has 13 MLB seasons and three All-Star appearances under his belt, though his days as a closer are likely over.  With a 2.89 ERA from 2016-22, Hand has a strong track record of success, and getting away from Coors Field might hint at better bottom-line results next year.

Dodgers To Decline Club Option On Joe Kelly

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The Dodgers won’t be exercising their $9.5MM club option on Joe Kelly’s services for the 2024 season, according to WEEI.com’s Rob Bradford (X link).  Kelly will instead collect a $1MM buyout and enter the free agent market.

Previously a Dodger from 2019-21, Kelly made his return to Los Angeles after the White Sox dealt the reliever and Lance Lynn to the Dodgers as part of a five-player swap at the trade deadline.  Forearm inflammation sidelined Kelly for over a month, but his limited (10 1/3 innings over 11 games) work with the Dodgers was a success, as he posted a 1.74 ERA.  Kelly struck out a whopping 47.5% of batters faced in those 10 1/3 frames, which helped cover up a high 15% walk rate.

For the 2023 season as a whole, Kelly posted a 4.12 ERA over 39 1/3 innings for Chicago and Los Angeles, with strong strikeout (35.7%) and grounder (58%) rates, even if his 10.7% walk rate was nothing special.  Kelly’s work with the Dodgers helped get his overall numbers back in line with the improved peripherals he posted with the White Sox, but on the down side, the veteran reliever had another injury-shortened year.  Kelly made three different trips to the IL, with his late-season forearm problem coming after earlier IL stints for a groin strain and elbow inflammation.

This injury history might be why L.A. chose to pass on Kelly’s option, even though the 35-year-old has shown that he can still be an effective reliever.  Declining the option doesn’t necessarily mean that the Dodgers won’t still look to retain Kelly at a lower salary, though now Los Angeles will be bidding against other teams looking for bullpen help.  Kelly’s last trip to free agency earned him a two-year, $17MM deal from the White Sox, and there’s a decent chance the right-hander can still land another multi-year contract, even if two injury-marred years won’t help his case.

Previous reports have indicated that the Dodgers also declined club options on Lynn and Alex Reyes, and it doesn’t seem like Daniel Hudson or Blake Treinen will have their club options exercised given their injury woes.  Max Muncy was the only other Dodger with a club option for 2024, but L.A. made a longer commitment by signing the infielder to an extension.

Cubs Exercise Club Options On Kyle Hendricks, Yan Gomes

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The Cubs have exercised their $16.5MM club option on the services of veteran right-hander Kyle Hendricks, per Jesse Rogers of ESPN. Hendricks, the club’s longest-tenured player, is now set to return in 2024 for his 11th season with the major league team and his 13th season as a member of the Cubs organization as a whole. Rogers also reports that the club has picked up their $6MM club option on veteran catcher Yan Gomes, who will return for his third season in Chicago.

Chicago’s decision to retain Hendricks is hardly a surprise, given comments earlier this fall from both president of baseball operations Jed Hoyer and club chairman Tom Ricketts that indicated Hendricks would return to the Cubs in 2024. The decision was likely made even simpler by veteran right-hander Marcus Stroman’s decision to opt out of the final year of his contract and return to the open market. By keeping Hendricks in the fold, the Cubs have a proven veteran starter to pair with Justin Steele and Jameson Taillon in the club’s rotation next season with youngsters like Jordan Wicks, Javier Assad, Hayden Wesneski, and perhaps even top pitching prospect Cade Horton all also in the mix for starts next season.

Of course, the most important factor in Hendricks’s option being picked up was the veteran righty’s strong bounceback campaign in 2023. The soft-tossing righty was among the most effective starters in all of baseball for the first seven seasons of his career with a sterling 3.12 ERA and 3.53 FIP across 175 games. Among the 68 pitchers who threw at least 700 total innings between 2014 and 2020, Hendricks’s ERA ranks 7th. Unfortunately, Hendricks’s performance took a turn for the worse over the next two seasons; he posted a 4.78 ERA and 4.87 FIP across 48 starts those two seasons before being shut down last summer due to a shoulder capsule injury.

Rehabbing from that shoulder injury left Hendricks unavailable to open the 2023 campaign, but he looked rejuvenated upon his return in late May. In 24 starts for the Cubs this season, Hendricks was able to provide a steady, veteran presence in the middle of the club’s rotation with a 3.74 ERA and 3.81 FIP in 137 innings of work. Though Hendricks struck out just 16.1% of batters faced- a low mark even by his soft-tossing standards- he made up for it by walking a microscopic 4.7% of batters faced while generating groundballs at a 46.3% clip. Altogether, Hendricks’s performance and the rising prices of pitching on the free agent market in recent years seems to have made picking up the 2024 option on his services a fairly easy decision for the Cubs.

As for Gomes, the 36-year-old veteran rebounded in a big way from a down year offensively in 2022. After slashing just .235/.260/.365 in 293 trips to the plate while serving as the club’s primary backup to Willson Contreras behind the plate last year, Gomes stepped into the role of Chicago’s primary catcher after Contreras departed for the Cardinals in free agency. Gomes took to the role quite well, slashing a respectable .267/.315/.408 in 419 trips to the plate, good for a 95 wRC+ that ranked 26th among the 69 catchers who had at least 100 trips to the plate in the majors this year.

In addition to his solid bat for the position, Gomes has generally been well-regarded as a catcher defensively throughout his career. Though his framing marks slipped somewhat in 2023 from where they had been in previous years, Gomes ranked in the 81st percentile for Blocks Above Average behind the plate and the 66th percentile for CS Above Average in 2023. Given his solid performance both at and behind the plate in 2023, it’s hardly a surprise that the Cubs would retain Gomes for a third season behind the plate, though it’s possible he’ll end up in more of a timeshare with youngster Miguel Amaya in 2024 after Amaya showed flashes of being a potential regular behind the plate in 53 games in the majors this year.

Braves Expected To Decline Club Option On Eddie Rosario

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The Braves are expected to decline their $9MM club option on the services of outfielder Eddie Rosario, per Jon Heyman of The New York Post. Heyman notes that the decision is a “close call” and that nothing is officially yet, but that the expectation is that Atlanta will officially decline their option “by tomorrow”, the typical deadline for option decisions.

Rosario, 32, slashed .255/.305/.450 in 2023 for the Braves, a line that was exactly league average by measure of wRC+. Even combined with solid defensive metrics in left field this year (+3 by both OAA and DRS), that performance was only good for 1.4 fWAR across 142 games in 2023. Despite the meager production, 2023 actually represented a significant rebound for Rosario, who was nothing short of brutal in 2022 with a .212/.259/.328 (62 wRC+) slash line in 270 trips to the plate surrounding a procedure to correct vision issues in his right eye.

Though the eye surgery sparked optimism that Rosario would be able to rebound in a more significant way, that did not come to pass in 2023. Rosario is now three seasons removed from a four-year stretch with the Twins where he hit 96 home runs in 483 games and slashed a strong .281/.317/.493 that was 12% better than league average by measure of wRC+. At the time, Rosario’s combination of 25-homer power and a strikeout rate that consistently hovered around 15% made him an attractive offensive option, even as he was limited to left field defensively.

Now, however, Rosario is coming off a brutal stretch of three seasons that’s seen him produce below average numbers offensively (91 wRC+) with a strikeout rate of 21% and just 40 home runs in 333 games. Given his recent production, Atlanta’s decision to move on from Rosario and reallocate his $9MM salary elsewhere is a perfectly understandable choice, even as he leaves behind a major hole in the club’s lineup in left field. Rosario still seems likely to find interest in his services from other clubs this offseason on the heels of a 21-homer campaign, though perhaps not at a $9MM guarantee.

Filling that hole in left field figures to be a major focus of the coming offseason for the Braves. While there’s been some discussion of youngster Vaughn Grissom as a potential option to get starts in left next year, his lack of experience at the position and unproven bat at the big league level seem likely to push the Braves to explore other options. Speculatively speaking, Red Sox outfielder Alex Verdugo is a known trade candidate who MLBTR’s Matt Swartz projects for a salary of $9.2MM in his final trip through arbitration. That could make him a clean fit for the club’s roster and financial needs, but the coming free agent class is littered with potential options, headlined by Teoscar Hernandez but also features the likes of Michael Brantley and Tommy Pham as well as former Braves Adam Duvall and Jason Heyward.

Diamondbacks Decline Mutual Option On Mark Melancon

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The Diamondbacks have declined their side of a mutual option with veteran right-hander Mark Melancon, per a report from Steve Gilbert of MLB.com this morning. The option was valued at $5MM, but the Diamondbacks will instead opt to pay Melancon a $2MM buyout on the option. The decision hardly comes as a surprise, both because mutual options are very rarely picked up and also because the 38-year-old righty did not pitch in 2023 due to a shoulder strain.

This was Melancon’s second season in Arizona, as the veteran righty initially signed with the club on a two-year, $14MM deal prior to the 2022 season on the heels of a resurgent 2021 campaign that saw him post a 2.23 ERA in 64 2/3 innings of work while leading the majors with 39 saves as the primary closer in San Diego. Melancon figured to fill the closer role for Arizona in 2022, but struggled to find his footing with the club, ultimately posting a 4.66 ERA (13% below average by measure of ERA+) and 4.20 FIP with 18 saves as the club lost 88 games.

Perhaps even more concerning than the downturn in results was Melancon’s plummeting strikeout rate. While Melancon was never much of a strikeout artist throughout his career, posting strikeout rates above 25% just twice in his career, his 22.3% strikeout rate in 2021 was an almost perfect reflection of his 22.2% strikeout rate in his career to that point. Melancon’s punch outs plummeted in 2022, however, as he struck out just 14.2% of batters faced during his age-37 season, the lowest mark of his career outside of a 13-game cup of coffee he received with the Yankees as a rookie in 2009.

On the heels of a down season in 2022 and a lost season in 2023, it’s fair to wonder what’s next for Melancon. The veteran righty has had one of the strongest relief careers of his generation, with a career ERA of just 2.94 and 262 saves in 732 career games. At the same time, he’ll turn 39 on Opening Day 2024 and last pitched effectively when he was 36 years old. Given the constant need for bullpen depth around the majors, it seems likely that Melancon will be able to find a job this offseason should he wish to continue his career, but it seems likely he’ll be relegated to minor league deals given his lack of recent track record and uncertain health situation.

As for the Diamondbacks, the club has a fairly solid bullpen nucleus ahead of the 2024 campaign, with closer Paul Sewald backed up by the likes of Kevin Ginkel, Ryan Thompson, and Andrew Saalfrank. That being said, it’s certainly feasible the club could look to bolster its bullpen depth given their 4.22 bullpen ERA in 2022, which ranked just 18th in the majors last year. Plenty of right-handed relievers figure to be available this season if Arizona is interested in replacing Melancon on the depth chart, with the likes of Jordan Hicks and Reynaldo Lopez chief among them.

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