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Guardians Select Johnathan Rodriguez

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The Guardians announced they’ve selected outfielder Johnathan Rodriguez onto the 40-man roster. He lands a spot for the first time in his career.

Cleveland selected Rodriguez in the third round of the 2017 draft. A right-handed hitter out of Puerto Rico, Rodriguez moved slowly through the minors. He spent his first four-plus seasons at various rookie or A-ball levels. He reached Double-A late in 2022, struggling in his first 28 games there.

Rodriguez unsurprisingly went unselected in last winter’s Rule 5 draft. He put himself on the radar for a 40-man spot with a breakout year in his first full season at the upper levels. Rodriguez spent the bulk of the season at Double-A Akron, hitting .289/.364/.512 in 88 games. He continued that pace after a bump to Triple-A Columbus, where he ran a .280/.376/.560 slash. Overall, the 23-year-old (24 tomorrow) hit .286/.368/.529 with 29 home runs over 565 trips to the plate. While a 28.8% strikeout rate is an alarming figure, he hit for enough power and drew sufficient free passes to earn a 40-man spot.

The impetus for Cleveland is the looming minor league free agent period. Players who have spent parts of seven seasons in the minors will qualify for free agency on Monday unless they’re on a 40-man roster. Cleveland ensured they wouldn’t lose Rodriguez via that process. He has a full slate of option years and could still be sent back to Columbus for the foreseeable future. If he holds the 40-man spot all offseason, he’d have a good chance of making his MLB debut at some point next year.

Justin Turner Declines Player Option

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The Red Sox announced a pair of option decisions Friday evening. Infielder Justin Turner has declined his $13.4MM player option in favor of a $6.7MM buyout. Meanwhile, the team declined its $11MM provision on right-hander Corey Kluber.

Turner signed with Boston last offseason. He inked a two-year, $21.7MM guarantee that always looked likely to send him back to the market after one season. Turner locked in an $8.3MM base salary, an extra $1MM in incentives, and the hefty buyout — which only required he’d top $6.7MM on his next contract to come out on top.

There’s no doubt he’ll beat that number after another strong season. The right-handed hitter posted a .276/.345/.455 line while connecting on 23 home runs over 626 plate appearances. The presence of Rafael Devers and Triston Casas at the infield corners consigned Turner primarily to designated hitter work. It raises questions about whether he could be an everyday third base option for another team as he enters his age-39 season.

Despite his age, there’s little doubt that Turner still projects as one of the better hitters in the class. He has topped 20 homers in two of the past three seasons, running a .277/.352/.455 slash since the start of 2021. Turner still has plus contact skills and good plate discipline.

The Kluber signing worked out a lot less favorably. Boston inked the two-time Cy Young winner to a $10MM guarantee. Kluber had turned in 164 innings with a 4.34 ERA for the Rays a season ago. His stint in Boston didn’t go well, as he was tagged for a 7.04 ERA through 55 frames. The right-hander struggled both during an early-season stint from the rotation and following a bullpen transfer in May.

Making matters worse, Kluber landed on the injured list on June 21 with inflammation in his throwing shoulder. He suffered a setback a month later and never returned to the big league club, although he did pitch twice for Triple-A Worcester in September. There was never any chance the Sox were going to retain him for $11MM. Assuming he wants to continue playing, the 38-year-old could conduct some offseason showcases in hopes of finding a major league contract elsewhere.

Matt Carpenter Exercises Player Option

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Matt Carpenter has exercised the $5.5MM player option in his contract with the Padres, reports Ari Alexander of KPRC 2 (X link). He’ll play out the second season of a two-year, $12MM guarantee.

Triggering the option was likely an easy call for the left-handed hitter. Carpenter had a tough 2023 campaign, hitting .176/.322/.319 with five home runs through 276 trips to the plate. He seemed to fall out of favor with the coaching staff as a result, often going extended stretches without an at-bat. His season ended in mid-September when he landed on the injured list with right elbow inflammation.

Clearly, that wasn’t what the front office envisioned when signing Carpenter a year ago. The longtime Cardinals second baseman had struggled mightily from 2020-21. When a minor league deal with the Rangers didn’t result in a big league opportunity, he considered retirement. Yet he absolutely raked over 47 games when he got a look from the Yankees in May 2022. Carpenter blasted 15 homers in 154 plate appearances, hitting .305/.412/.727. A foot fracture kept his time as a Yankee rather brief, leaving the Padres to gamble on him maintaining some kind of strong offensive form after that relatively small-sample performance.

It didn’t happen in year one. The Padres could give Carpenter another crack at securing a job on the bench, although it doesn’t seem guaranteed he’ll spend the entire offseason on the 40-man roster. In any event, he is assured of next year’s salary. With Seth Lugo making the similarly easy call to decline his option yesterday, the Padres are down to their two more borderline options on right-handers Michael Wacha and Nick Martinez.

Angels Decline Options On Aaron Loup, Eduardo Escobar

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The Angels announced that they have declined club options on left-hander Aaron Loup and infielder Eduardo Escobar. Both will now become free agents, with Loup receiving a $2.5MM buyout instead of a $7.5MM salary for 2024, while Escobar receives a buyout of $500K instead of a $9MM salary.

Neither move comes as a surprise. Loup posted a remarkable 0.95 ERA in 2021 and parlayed that into a two-year, $17MM deal going into 2022. His first year with the Halos was fine, resulting in a 3.84 ERA, but that figure jumped to 6.10 in 2023. There may have been some bad luck in his poor results this year, with a .373 batting average on balls in play and 63.6% strand rate, but his strikeout rate has also been declining. He fanned 26.1% of batters in that strong 2021 campaign but that rate dropped to 20% and then 19.5% in the two most recent seasons.  He also finished the 2023 campaign on the injured list with a left shoulder strain.

The Halos acquired Escobar in a midseason trade with the Mets. They hoped the veteran switch-hitter would stabilize an infield that had been wrecked by injury. It didn’t go as planned, with Escobar stumbling to a .219/.259/.303 slash in 189 plate appearances. Combined with a slow start in Queens, he managed just a .226/.269/.344 line over 100 games on the season.

Lefty relief and third base both stand as areas the Angels could try to address this offseason. They don’t have any left-handers who are guaranteed spots in the season-opening bullpen, with the likes of Kolton Ingram and Kenny Rosenberg projecting as their top options. Anthony Rendon is the ostensible starter at third base, although he’s coming off another disappointing year marred by injury.

White Sox To Decline Option On Liam Hendriks

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The White Sox are declining their club option on right-hander Liam Hendriks, per Jon Heyman of The New York Post. Instead of retaining him for 2024 with a $15MM salary, they will pay him a $15MM buyout but spread over the next ten years in annual instalments of $1.5MM. The righty underwent Tommy John surgery in August and is likely to miss the 2024 season.

Hendriks, 35 in February, signed with the Sox going into 2021. The three-year deal came with a three-year, $54MM guarantee. He would make $39MM over the first three years, with the $15MM option/buyout for 2024. He continued to pitch well over the first two years of the deal, racking up 75 saves over those two seasons with a 2.66 ERA, 39.4% strikeout rate and 4.6% walk rate.

But 2023 provided Hendriks with some significant challenges. He was diagnosed with non-Hodgkin’s lymphoma in the offseason and had to miss the start of the year undergoing treatment. By the end of April, he was cancer free and began ramping up for a return to the club. He was activated in late May, making five appearances before landing on the injured list due to elbow inflammation, which eventually led him requiring Tommy John surgery.

Since he’s likely to miss the upcoming campaign, it’s understandable that the Sox would take the buyout. Though it’s the same amount as the salary of the option, it’s easier to pay it over 10 years than in one, especially with inflation reducing the value of currency over time. Also, there’s no injured list between the World Series and Spring Training, meaning Hendriks would require a roster spot all winter if the option were picked up. By taking the buyout, the Sox free up a spot for the coming months.

Now Hendriks will head to the open market and be free to sign with any club. Though he still has a lengthy rehab process in front of him, players in this situation often sign two-year deals. The players gets some cash to cover the rehab process while the club gets control over one post-rehab season.

Righty Tommy Kahnle signed one such contract when he and the Dodgers agreed to a two-year deal going into 2021. Kahnle was guaranteed $4.75MM plus incentives. He didn’t have the same track record as Hendriks and that winter’s market was generally deflated after the lost revenues of 2020, so it seems fair to expect Hendriks to be able to top that guarantee.

Dodgers Decline Option On Lance Lynn

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The Dodgers have declined their club option on right-hander Lance Lynn, per Fabian Ardaya of The Athletic. They will pay him a $1MM buyout and send him to free agency instead of retaining him with an $18MM salary for 2024.

The move doesn’t come as a surprise, as Lynn just wrapped up the worst season of his career. He made 32 starts in 2023 between the White Sox and the Dodgers, switching teams in a trade prior to the deadline. His 23.6% strikeout rate and 8.3% walk rate were both around league average, but he was victimized by the long ball. He allowed an incredible 44 fly balls to go over the fence this past season, the most of any pitcher in the league and easily the highest tally of his career. Despite those struggles, the Dodgers’ rotation had been decimated by injuries and they sent Lynn to the mound in the playoffs. He started Game 3 of the NLDS against the Diamondbacks with two scoreless innings but allowed four home runs in the third, getting pulled before finishing that inning.

The Dodgers need starting pitching next year but it’s understandable they didn’t want to commit $17MM to Lynn just as the offseason is kicking off. After his poor results this year, he will likely have to settle for a lower salary than that. He may be able to top that number in total guarantee if he can find a multi-year deal, as even back-end veteran types can often get to eight figures on an annual basis.

Though the 2023 season was obviously rough and he turns 37 in May, Lynn will still have appeal as a bounceback candidate. He has a career ERA of 3.74 in a career that dates back to 2011. In each of the four seasons prior to 2023, he kept his ERA under 4.00. In that 2019 to 2022 stretch, he made 95 starts with a 3.42 ERA, 26.8% strikeout rate and 6.2% walk rate.

Veteran starters can often find decent contracts for themselves, even when the expectations of their production have waned. Zack Greinke got $13MM from the Royals going into 2022 and another $8.5MM going into 2023, his age-38 and age-39 seasons. Corey Kluber got $10MM from the Red Sox prior to 2023, even with questions around his health and effectiveness. 43-year-old Rich Hill got $8MM from the Pirates for 2023. Perhaps some club thinks they can get Lynn back on track or merely have him serve as an innings-eater, but he should be able to find a decent contract regardless.

As for the Dodgers, they go into the winter with plenty of question marks in their rotation. Lynn is now heading into free agency, joining Julio Urías and Clayton Kershaw. The latter has re-signed with the Dodgers many times but is slated for an uncertain road back from shoulder surgery. That leaves Walker Buehler, who missed all of 2023 recovering from Tommy John surgery, as well as a batch of guys with limited experience like Bobby Miller, Emmet Sheehan, Ryan Pepiot, Gavin Stone and Michael Grove. There’s also Ryan Yarbrough in the mix but he’s a non-tender candidate.

The club has plenty of payroll space to work with and will likely be very active in free agency. They are expected to pursue two-way superstar Shohei Ohtani, though he won’t be pitching in 2024. The other top names on the pitching market will be Yoshinobu Yamamoto, Blake Snell, Aaron Nola and Jordan Montgomery, with many others also available.

Mets To Exercise Club Option On Brooks Raley

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The Mets will be picking up their club option on left-hander Brooks Raley, retaining him for 2024 via a $6.5MM salary instead of taking the $1.25MM buyout, per Jon Heyman of The New York Post.

It’s not a surprising decision, as Raley has been an effective reliever for a few years now. The net $5.25MM price point is a perfectly reasonable amount to pay for a reliable left-handed reliever. He posted an earned run average of 2.80 across 66 appearances for the Mets this year. His 10.6% walk rate was on the high side but he struck out 25.8% of opponents and kept the ball on the ground at a 43% clip.

Raley spent 2015 to 2019 in Korea, pitching for the Lotte Giants of the KBO. He came back to North America and got a brief look with the Reds before getting flipped to the Astros. In 2021, He had an ERA of 4.78 for Houston but with encouraging underlying metrics. He struck out 31.7% of batters faced while walking 7.8%, but a 59.7% strand rate led to some extra runs crossing the plate. That’s why ERA estimators were far kinder, including a 3.27 FIP and a 2.91 SIERA.

Raley didn’t have six years of service after that season but reached free agency regardless, a common contractual stipulation given to players coming from playing overseas. That led to a two-year, $10MM deal with the Rays going into 2022. He then registered a 2.68 ERA for Tampa that year before getting flipped to the Mets prior to 2023.

As mentioned, Raley went on to have another solid season in 2023. He got some trade interest prior to the deadline, as the Mets were selling off pieces amid their disappointing season. He ultimately stayed and will now rejoin the Mets’ bullpen for 2024. As of now, he should be the top lefty in the relief corps, with Josh Walker the only other option on the 40-man. José Quintana, David Peterson and Joey Lucchesi are also left-handed and on the roster but they figure to be in the mix for rotation jobs, depending how the rest of the offseason plays out.

Padres Sign Ryan Carpenter To Minor League Deal

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The Padres have signed left-hander Ryan Carpenter to a minor league deal, per Evan Woodbery of MLive. The southpaw will presumably receive an invitation to Spring Training and compete for a roster spot.

Carpenter, 33, has a small amount of major league experience, having pitched for the Tigers in 2018 and 2019. He made 15 appearances, including 14 starts, logging 63 innings over those two seasons. Unfortunately, he allowed 8.57 earned runs per nine innings in that small sample and hasn’t been back to the big leagues since.

The lefty signed with the Rakuten Monkeys of the Chinese Professional Baseball League in Taiwan for 2020 and had a solid season for them. He tossed 157 1/3 innings over 26 appearances with an ERA of 4.00. That led to a deal with the Hanwha Eagles of the Korea Baseball Organization, which is generally considered to be a stronger league than the CPBL. He tossed 170 frames for the Eagles in 2021 with an ERA of 3.97.

Carpenter returned to the Eagles for 2022 but wasn’t able to make much impact, making just four appearances. He was released a couple of months into that season with reports of elbow soreness. Public details on what followed from there are sparse but he didn’t pitch anywhere in 2023. It’s possible that he required some sort of elbow procedure and spent the year rehabbing, though that is entirely speculative.

The Padres have plenty of rotation uncertainty at the moment and questions around their budget as well. Joe Musgrove and Yu Darvish give the club a strong duo at the top of their starting staff but Seth Lugo declined his player option and is now a free agent. Michael Wacha and Nick Martinez have complicated contract options but could follow Lugo out the door. Blake Snell will surely receive and turn down a qualifying offer and head to the open market himself, alongside midseason pickup Rich Hill.

The club will surely be looking to bolster the rotation but financial issues could perhaps limit how aggressive they are in signing free agents to accomplish that task. Carpenter figures to compete with internal options like Jay Groome, Pedro Avila, Matt Waldron and Adrián Morejón for a spot on the depth chart.

Dodgers Sign Max Muncy To Two-Year Extension

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The Dodgers announced they’ve signed infielder Max Muncy to a two-year, $24MM extension. The deal also includes a $10MM club option for 2026. The contract overwrites a $14MM option that L.A. had on Muncy’s services for next season.

A client of Hub Sports Management, Muncy will reportedly receive a $5MM signing bonus. He’ll make a $7MM salary next season and $12MM in 2025, while the deal includes additional bonuses based on his plate appearance totals. The contract has a $12MM average annual value.

Muncy, 33, has spent the past six seasons in Los Angeles. Originally an unceremonious addition via minor league contract, he quickly developed into one of the Dodgers’ most important hitters. The lefty-swinging infielder has reached the 35-homer mark in four of the five full schedules. He popped 36 longballs this past season, tying with Jorge Soler for 12th in the majors in that regard.

That power production comes with one of the sport’s more extreme offensive approaches. Muncy is a prototypical three true outcomes hitter. He pairs the home runs with an extremely patient plate approach. The deep counts translate to plenty of walks, as he has drawn a free pass in 15% of his career plate appearances. Yet he’s also prone to strikeouts and runs very low averages on balls in play thanks to a fly-ball heavy swing.

As a result, Muncy has one of the lower batting averages among everyday players. He hit .212/.333/.475 through 579 trips to the plate this past season. That’s on the heels of a .196/.329/.384 showing. Over the last two years, the two-time All-Star sports a .204/.331/.430 line in a little more than 1100 trips to the plate.

That isn’t quite as impressive as Muncy’s production over his first few seasons in Southern California. The overall offensive production is still clearly above-average, however. Muncy’s 118 wRC+ this year indicates he was 18 percentage points better than an average batter. The front office clearly values his contributions, as they’ve now signed him to three separate extensions.

Muncy has a decent amount of experience at first and second base. He spent the entire ’23 campaign at third base, logging a personal-high 1052 innings there. Metrics like Defensive Runs Saved and Outs Above Average estimated he was between three and five runs below par at the hot corner. That’s hardly disastrous but aligns with his reputation as a bat-first player.

As he gets into his mid-30s, that profile seems likely to skew increasingly towards offense. Whether Muncy sees another 120+ starts at third base may well be determined by the Dodgers’ subsequent offseason moves. Freddie Freeman is locked in at first base. The club should welcome Gavin Lux back from the ACL tear that cost him all of 2023, likely securing second base. Miguel Vargas, Michael Busch and Chris Taylor are among the possibilities for third base reps, although Muncy is clearly above that group on the depth chart.

The designated hitter role will be one of the stories of the offseason. L.A. will see J.D. Martinez hit free agency in the coming days, although they could make him a qualifying offer. They’re sure to make a run at Shohei Ohtani, a potential addition that would push Muncy back to third base.

Even with this deal in place, the Dodgers have plenty of breathing room financially. Roster Resource projected the 2024 payroll around $127MM before this extension. That’ll sit a little under $140MM now, well below this year’s $223MM Opening Day estimate. The $12MM AAV pushes their luxury tax projection to roughly $155MM. That’s more than $80MM south of next year’s $237MM base threshold.

Robert Murray of FanSided first reported the Dodgers and Muncy were seriously discussing a two-year extension. Jon Heyman of the New York Post first suggested the deal was agreed upon. Murray had the specific salary breakdown.

Image courtesy of USA Today Sports.

A’s Decline Option On Drew Rucinski

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The Athletics are declining a $5MM option on right-hander Drew Rucinski, reports Ari Alexander of KPRC 2 (X link). That was the expected decision.

Oakland signed Rucinski to a $3MM guarantee last offseason. It was a low-cost flier after the 34-year-old had turned in a 2.97 ERA with the Korea Baseball Organization’s NC Dinos. Injuries derailed his effort to establish himself as an MLB starter. Rucinski made only four starts, allowing 22 runs (18 earned) across 18 innings. He walked 14 while striking out just six.

Rucinski landed on the injured list in mid-May. The team announced the problem as a stomach illness. A bit thereafter, the team announced he was dealing with a degenerative back condition. Rucinski underwent a surgical procedure in July. Alexander notes the rehab is expected to carry into 2024, leaving it unclear when he might be able to take the mound.

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