Here are the position players that have recently taken to the open market, along with their now-former teams (via the International League and PCL transactions pages):
Graterol, 30, appeared in six games with Cincinnati this season and tallied four singles in 18 trips to the plate. He’s played sparingly in several big league stints across the past four seasons, compiling a .218/.227/.266 line in 129 plate appearances between the Angels, Twins and Reds. He’s also spent parts of six seasons in Triple-A, where he’s a career .277/.313/.340 hitter.
While he’s not much of a threat at the plate, Graterol has been a plus framer, pitch blocker and thrower both in the upper minors and in the Majors. He boasts a 32 percent caught-stealing rate in the big leagues and a hefty 38 percent mark in parts of 14 minor league seasons. He’ll presumably draw interest among teams eyeing catching depth in the upper minors this winter, likely landing a minor league deal and an invite to big league Spring Training somewhere.
]]>2:47 pm: The Reds have claimed pitcher Josh Smith off of waivers from the Marlins, according to a tweet from C. Trent Rosecrans of The Athletic (link). In a corresponding move, Cincinnati has designated catcher Juan Graterol for assignment.
The Marlins had claimed the left-handed Smith off of waivers from the Indians on Sept 14, making his time in the Miami organization exceedingly brief. Occasionally referred to as “Josh D. Smith” in order to avoid confusion, the lefty is a soft-tossing reliever with a largely fastball/slider dependent repertoire. The 30-year-old played in both the Pirates and Red Sox organizations before making his big league debut with Cleveland in 2019; he ultimately made 14 appearances between the Indian and Marlin pens, logging a 6.39 ERA (4.32 FIP) in a small sample of 12.2 innings. Amir Garrett is the only lefty on-hand in the Cincinnati bullpen, so Smith could be a relatively no-cost flier for a club looking to broaden its mix-and-match capabilities.
The 30-year-old Graterol first came up to the bigs with the Angels in 2016, but he’s never really been given an extended look in the majors. Across parts of three seasons, he’s received just 129 plate appearances at the game’s highest level, logging a meek .218/.227/.266 line with zero home runs. He spent most of 2019 at Triple-A in the Reds organization, logging a .249/.301/.325 slash through 226 plate appearances.
]]>They formed the league’s best unit over the first half of the season, but the pressure never let up as the Reds finished with more one-run margins than any other team in the game. 57 one-run games plus another 31 games with a two-run margin made the difference in an up-and-down season for Cincinnati. Interestingly, President of Baseball Ops pretty clearly assigned blame in these games to the offense, defending the bullpen in saying, “When they did let things get away, I think they were, at times, unfairly scrutinized because I really think when the offense had chances to provide separating runs, get big leads, jump out, we just didn’t get quite enough of that, taking pressure off the pitching at times.”
The bullpen finished middle-of-the-pack by ERA, FIP, and fWAR, though admittedly closer to the top than the bottom. Despite all the close games, the unit still finished 25th in innings pitched, a good indicator for the starting rotation. All things considered, the Reds enter the offseason feeling pretty good about Raisel Iglesias, Michael Lorenzen, Amir Garrett, and Robert Stephenson making up the core of their relief unit.
[RELATED – Three Needs: Cincinnati Reds]
All signs point to another eventful winter for the Reds, but it’s the offense where Williams is focusing his attention. Despite some breakout power in the forms of Eugenio Suarez and Aristides Aquino, the Reds finished 25th in the majors in runs scored. Their offense as a whole finished with just an 87 wRC+, also ranking 25th in the MLB. They have a ways to go to join the league’s elite in this regard: 11 teams finished with 100+ weighted runs created plus, 8 of whom made the postseason. The Cardinals 95 wRC+ was the lowest of any team in the postseason.
]]>[RELATED – Three Needs: Cincinnati Reds]
Cincinnati made almost all of its notable additions on the trade market last winter, picking up several household names (including right-hander Sonny Gray, who was superb this season). That continued into the summer with their acquisition of righty Trevor Bauer, who will join Gray, Luis Castillo and Anthony DeSclafani as locks for next year’s rotation. The Reds remain open to bettering their roster via trades now, but it seems an ideal scenario for Williams would be for him and general manager Nick Krall to make most of their hay in free agency.
Williams told Rosecrans he expects Cincy will “be aggressive in trying to get some guys in free agency.” That’s a drastic change from last offseason, when the Reds’ lone guaranteed contract went to lefty reliever Zach Duke. That $2MM signing didn’t pan out, leading the Reds to release Duke in July.
While Duke struggled as part of the Reds’ bullpen, fellow relievers Raisel Iglesias, Amir Garrett, Michael Lorenzen, Robert Stephenson and Matt Bowman each gave he club respectable or better production. All five of those hurlers are slated to return in 2020, though the Reds still “want to make sure we’re doing everything we can to improve the bullpen,” according to Williams.
Upgrading starting depth, defense and team speed are also on the Reds’ to-do list, but there probably won’t be a bigger winter priority for the team than improving its offense. The Reds ended the year 25th in the majors in both runs scored (701) and wRC+ (87), and only third baseman Eugenio Suarez and the young outfield duo of Aristides Aquino and Jesse Winker provided well-above-average numbers over a sizable sample of plate appearances.
Aquino, 25, started his career on an offensive rampage after an Aug. 1 promotion. He was a home run threat just about every time he stepped to the plate for a few weeks, becoming the fastest player ever to ever hit 15 (he did so in 122 PA). Aquino wound up with a prolific 19 in 225 trips to the plate, though his overall output tailed off badly over the final couple weeks of the campaign. Perhaps as a result of that, the Reds don’t want to gift him a starting spot in right field for next season.
“He’s going to have to continue to earn it and improve and build and we will take the approach in the offseason that the outfield as a whole, you know, we will be trying to add,” said Williams.
The Reds’ outfield next year could also continue to include Nick Senzel, a high-end infield prospect who transferred to center this season. Cincy was impressed with Senzel’s work in his first outfield action in the bigs, but Williams values Senzel’s flexibility and doesn’t want to commit to a 2020 position for him just yet. Whether the Reds add a starting-level second baseman or pick up a No. 1-caliber center fielder figures to influence where Senzel will primarily line up in a year. Indeed, the Reds’ middle infield “needs to be figured out,” acknowledged Williams, who revealed the Reds will “look into” re-signing pending free-agent shortstop Jose Iglesias. The light-hitting, defensively adept Iglesias proved to be a shrewd minor league signing for the club going into this season, but his ceiling isn’t particularly high. With that in mind, it wouldn’t be a surprise to see the Reds let him walk and pursue better options than him and the controllable talent on hand (namely Freddy Galvis and Jose Peraza).
Between Suarez at the hot corner and Joey Votto at first, the rest of the team’s starting infield appears etched in stone going into 2020. Elsewhere, while Williams regards catchers Tucker Barnhart and Curt Casali as starting-caliber backstops, he admitted that “we could look to get more offensively out of the catching.” Big-hitting catcher Yasmani Grandal, a former Reds farmhand, headlines the class of backstops who are about to reach free agency. He has already been linked to the Reds in the rumor mill this week.
Regardless of whether the Reds try to reunite with Grandal, it appears they’re shaping up to have one of the league’s most active offseasons. There’s “a strong emphasis on trying to win now,” Williams declared. “And win in the short term. We believe we will build a postseason team for 2020.”
]]>1. Take Heed Of Other Teams’ Ramp-Up Difficulties
When fans hear Cincinnati baseball ops chief Dick Williams speak of riding a bigger payroll to the postseason, they surely have flashbacks to the team’s recent 2010-13 inflection point. But they should shudder at the thought of what came before (nine-straight losing campaigns) and after (six straight) that four-season stretch. Williams and co. must work not only to get back to the promised land, but to create a sustainable (or at least more swiftly recoverable) means of doing so.
As they ponder the possibilities, the Reds need to be mindful of the recent experiences of the NL-rival Rockies and Diamondbacks — two clubs that have historically occupied similar tax brackets while dealing with the challenges of offensively charged home parks. While the Colorado organization successfully cracked the postseason code for two-straight seasons, its ramped-up free-agent spending — especially, on multiple veteran relievers — didn’t deliver the hoped-for impact. The Rockies have rather swiftly found themselves in a tight payroll spot. Before that, the Snakes slammed the pedal to the floor a bit too hard — the Shelby Miller trade and Zack Greinke signing — and veered right off course.
We’re not suggesting the Reds shouldn’t be excited to fling open a window of contention. But the club needs to measure its moves carefully, especially since it already parted with touted prospect Taylor Trammell in the Bauer swap. Running up payroll for a single season isn’t necessarily a problem, but the club can ill afford multiple, hefty, unproductive contracts like those the Rockies have accumulated. And it will be even more wary of Arizona-like over-exuberance that could cost a rare chance at an extended period of competitiveness.
Precisely how to navigate things will depend upon the opportunities that arise. But the Reds can look to some other National League clubs for guidance. The Braves (Josh Donaldson, Dallas Keuchel) and Brewers (Yasmani Grandal) both cashed in with expensive, one-year deals. Had they fallen flat, the clubs would simply have shrugged and moved on. If the Reds are to place a longer-term bet, it probably shouldn’t come in a bidding war on a veteran reliever. Last year’s acquisition and extension of Sonny Gray would be hard to replicate, but spreading the cost over a slightly longer term (as the Rangers have with Lance Lynn and Mike Minor) could give the team a shot at landing a high-quality player at an affordable price.
2. Pursue Upside Up The Middle
It just so happens that the Reds are less-than-settled in the middle infield. Jose Iglesias turned in a solid campaign but is a free agent. Jose Peraza can be tasked with a utility role but not trusted as a regular. The club controls the rights to Freddy Galvis, but he should be a reserve on a contender. Nick Senzel is uber-talented and capable of playing center field or second base, so there’s some flexibility to work with for the Reds. There’s at least a sturdy floor behind the dish, but the defensively renowned Tucker Barnhart doesn’t have much of a bat.
This may be the place for the Reds to strike. On the one hand, the upcoming open market isn’t laden with great possibilities. There are quite a few guys that have at times been solid or better middle infielders, but it’s awfully light on players that appear to be present-talent true regulars. And the center field market is barren. But that also reflects the fact that many teams are already settled in these areas. And there are some intriguing options, including the aforementioned Grandal as well as old friend and bounceback candidate Didi Gregorius. It’s far from clear what’ll be available via trade, but there could be some awfully appealing names dangled. The pie-in-the-sky trade candidates are Francisco Lindor and Marcus Semien, who can’t be ruled out entirely given their respective organizations’ long-view strategies. It’s much easier to envision Starling Marte coming available, and he’d be quite an interesting target with two cost-controlled seasons left on his deal. Jackie Bradley Jr. and Ender Inciarte are among the potentially available players that are somewhat interesting but lower-ceiling possibilities.
Yep, the Reds still need to bear in mind the issues raised in item #1 above. An all-in strategy to go for Semien without an extension in place would likely not be wise. But if the Cincinnati club is going to go past its comfort zone a bit, it ought to be on a player who not only has a sturdy anticipated performance floor but also carries some real star potential. There are relatively few options, so they might need to be explored early. If nothing comes available at a reasonable price, the Reds can pivot to the many affordable options while seeing if anything has fallen through the cracks (Yasiel Puig???) in other areas.
3. Don’t Forget Pitching Depth
Yeah, the Reds got really nice output from their rotation this year and picked up Bauer to help lead the charge in 2020. And they have clear need to improve up the middle and/or with a new outfield bat. But this team could easily get in trouble if it doesn’t allocate some resources to protect the pitching staff, especially with Great American Ball Park as the backdrop.
Here’s the thing to bear in mind when you start thinking about whether and how the Reds can build off of 2019: they are unlikely to enjoy such phenomenal pitching health. Aside from Alex Wood, who returned for seven starts after missing much of the season, the club’s starters were more or less always available when scheduled. And the relief corps received voluminous contributions from its best arms: Amir Garrett made 69 appearances; Robert Stephenson and Raisel Iglesias each cracked sixty innings; Michael Lorenzen threw 83 1/3 frames.
While the Reds might not feel a need to chase improvement in the pitching staff, they ought to be relatively aggressive with spending 2020 cash on depth arms. There are a range of possibilities — the acquisition of a volume swingman, risking a bit of payroll space on a few durable veteran relievers, targeting optionable arms on waiver claims — but the overarching approach must build in some contingencies. Not doing so carries significant risk. Early-season pitching additions can be exceptionally pricey and it’s a long time to wait til the trade deadline when you’re trying to break back into the postseason.
]]>The measure of success in 2020 is unambiguous. Per Williams: “The goal for us now, all we’re talking about is the postseason. That’s what matters. That’s the goal next year. It’s not taking incremental steps in a rebuild. It’s about the postseason.”
Getting there is going to require a massive effort, beginning with the hot stove efforts of the front office. Williams says he sees a path to an “even more impactful” offseason effort than he oversaw last year, because “we’ll have more financial resources at our disposal.” He went on to state plainly: “Our payroll will be bigger this year. There will be good opportunities to invest that payroll.”
The Cincinnati ballclub already ramped its spending up significantly this year, opening the season with over $126MM on the books. There’s a bit less than sixty million committed already for 2020, before accounting for the arbitration salaries of Trevor Bauer, Anthony DeSclafani, Michael Lorenzen, Jose Peraza and others. That should leave a fair bit of breathing room to work with, particularly with the Opening Day payroll figure slated to rise.
Williams didn’t exactly map out how the team intends to spend that cash, but did make clear that it isn’t going to “shy away from” a “big-dollar, multi-year contract.” There’ll be a healthy respect for avoiding too massive a commitment, he said, but made clear that open-market spending “is part of the strategy this year.”
The Reds have quite a few pieces in place, but no shortage of areas to improve. There’s need in the middle infield and room for an outfield bat (especially after dealing away top prospect Taylor Trammell to acquire Bauer). It’s possible to imagine the club again exploring a better-hitting catcher. The rotation may need only a depth addition or two, but the bullpen could stand to be upgraded with multiple good arms.
Figuring out how to sustain the pitching advances achieved in 2019 remains necessary. But the focus will surely be on bringing up an 87 team wRC+ that was sixth-worst in baseball. Williams says that the pitching strides came from “a combination of making smart trades, smart signings, the staff we brought in, the advancement in technology.” The Reds hope to replicate that blend with the bats this winter. The organization will anticipate “internal improvement” but won’t be content watching and hoping, he says. The Reds also intend to “add to the offensive side of the club.”
]]>While Boddy will work more with the team’s minor league pitchers than the Major League pitchers, he’ll also “work closely with the Major League pitching department to ensure the pitching philosophies and protocols are consistent throughout the organization,” per the Reds.
The Cincinnati organization has rapidly turned over its pitching infrastructure, not only bringing Boddy aboard but also adding Cotham and pitching coach Derek Johnson (formerly of the Brewers) in the past year. For those unfamiliar, Driveline (founded by Boddy) seeks to utilize technology and biomechanics to take a data-driven approach to pitching development. Its services have become increasingly popular among both Major League and college pitchers in recent years, with Cincinnati’s Trevor Bauer and Detroit’s Matthew Boyd among the more prominent names in the company’s clientele.
The Reds, in recent seasons, have sought to bolster their utilization of technology and analytics in an attempt to stay competitive with the rising number of data-oriented front offices in today’s game. Manager David Bell’s coaching staff featured several members who’d previously worked in such organizations and, as such, were familiar with the best way to break down that type of information for players. They’ve also made multiple hires to add to their analytics department in the past couple of seasons.
Cotham, a former Driveline client and Major League pitcher himself, is assuredly a part of that. He spent the 2019 season as the team’s assistant pitching coach but will now see his role increase in with the addition of “director of pitching” to his title. While the aforementioned Bauer has had an inconsistent season, both with the Indians and the Reds, there were other success stories under Johnson and Cotham, with Sonny Gray chief among them. Luis Castillo also returned to form after a shaky 2018 campaign, and Anthony DeSclafani arguably had the best season of his career.
]]>Ward came to Cincinnati after previously serving as the Dodgers’ hitting coach. President of baseball operations Dick Williams thanked Ward in a statement but explained that, “as we reflected on this season, it became clear that we lacked the alignment we were seeking with our offensive approach.”
It seems the organization will return the remainder of Bell’s staff, though the announcement did not make that explicit. The Reds will now set out to find a new hitting voice to replace Ward.
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