[Cincinnati Reds Depth Chart]

1. Don’t (completely) abandon the pitching strategy. 

Wait, what?! The Reds’ pitching staff has been the worst in all of baseball since the start of 2016, handily pacing the league in the volume of walks, long balls, and earned runs allowed. Actually, that doesn’t quite capture it: the Reds’ pitching staff has essentially defined replacement level since the start of 2016, making it a true outlier. By measure of fWAR, at least, the 2016-17 Reds hurlers have turned in a two-year stretch of futility that is orders of magnitude worse than any other organization of the past two decades, falling well shy of the dreadful 2004-05 Royals and 2002-03 Devil Rays units.

It goes without saying that there’s work to be done if the Reds hope to win at any point in the near future. But Cinci was largely justified in its recent approaching, having accumulated a significant number of interesting-enough pitching prospects at the upper levels of the farm. While few were seen as sure things, the club correctly assessed its chances of contention (not good) and declined to dole out significant contracts to back-of-the-rotation veterans. (Compare to the Braves and Phillies, who spent quite a lot of money on veteran pitching and ended no closer to contention than did the Reds.)

Clearly, the pitching hasn’t developed as hoped; there’s quite a lot of room for self-assessment and improvement. But injuries to Anthony DeSclafani, Brandon Finnegan, Homer Bailey, and even Scott Feldman — the rare player the Reds did sign into the rotation — played a major role in the dreadful performance, too. The first three of those hurlers will have an offseason to rest up. Luis Castillo — acquired for Dan Straily, who was found last year as part of the budget-friendly strategy — looks like an arm to build around. And the Reds have seen enough moments of intrigue from a few younger arms to hope that one or more can round out the starting unit. Others will become affordable relievers, perhaps with some capacity to make longer relief appearances (an approach the organization has stressed, with some success thus far).

At this point, there’s little reason for the Reds to suddenly begin investing in expensive, aging starters. It would be nice to see some stability added into the mix over the winter — the Feldman signing could provide a guide, or the team could perhaps spend a bit more and take a shot on a higher-upside arm — and the Reds have enough talent on the position-player side to be a plausible contender as soon as next year. But continued restraint would be preferable to a move that ties the organization’s hands in future campaigns.

2. Shop Raisel Iglesias.

What do you do with the best pitcher on a historically awful staff? Trade him, of course! Sounds odd at first glance, I’ll admit, but the Reds could be in a position to cash in on the talented right-hander.

Iglesias could be the centerpiece of a big trade after turning in 71 1/3 innings of 1.89 ERA pitching (so far) with 11.0 K/9 and 3.2 BB/9. The 27-year-old is guaranteed just $14.5MM over the next three seasons, though he can choose instead to opt into arbitration and would qualify next year as a Super Two. Iglesias can also be tendered arbitration in 2021, meaning the Reds control him for four more campaigns at what ought to be quite an appealing rate (though his outstanding pitching and saves tallies will boost his earning power in arbitration).

For organizations that will be looking into veteran free-agent closers, or that otherwise have interest in a multi-inning relief ace (and who doesn’t?), there ought to be a real willingness to part with significant young talent. Teams will no doubt notice that Iglesias has thrown harder and generated more whiffs than ever this year, elevating his trade stock to what may well be an all-time high. Given the risks inherent to any pitcher, let alone a flame-throwing reliever, it’s quite possibly an opportune time for the Reds to cash him in.

To be sure, it would be foolish to give up such a talented, controllable asset for less than a compelling return. But the guess here is that the club should have a good chance of prying loose some quality, near-MLB assets — all the better if that includes a young starter — that could be of greater long-term impact and help set the stage for a sustainable run of contention. Earnestly shopping Iglesias will at least give the organization a strong sense of his market value, and might just drum up a great trade opportunity.

3. Bid a fond farewell to Zack Cozart.

It’s unfortunate that the Reds were never able to cash in on the strong play of their veteran shortstop, who has turned from a light-hitting defensive whiz to an all-around star in 2017. Injuries and thin market demand make the failure to strike a match largely understandable from the front office’s perspective.

Now, though, the club is left with a decision to make — one that’ll be due just five days after the end of the World Series. Should the club choose, it can dangle a qualifying offer to the free-agent-to-be. If he declines, and signs for more than $50MM elsewhere, the Reds could score an extra draft pick just after the end of the first round. Of course, if Cozart falls shy of that amount in free agency, the team would receive only a choice after the second round.

When polled recently, MLBTR readers were split as to how the team should proceed, but most felt a QO was in order. Count me among the minority on that decision. Cozart is already 32 and has battled quite a few injuries in recent years. We have already seen the dearth of shortstop demand leaguewide; while he’ll no doubt land a solid, multi-year deal, Cozart likely won’t earn enough (with draft pick compensation required of a signing team) to earn the Reds the highest-possible pick. And he will need to strongly consider taking the ~$18.1MM payday for one year of work.

As good as Cozart has been, and as hard as it may be to see him walk away with nothing coming in return, the Reds simply can’t afford to take the chance that he takes the offer. The team already has over $60MM on the books and will owe some reasonably significant arbitration salaries. Rather than potentially adding an expensive veteran to the left side of the infield, Cincinnati should be anticipating how to clear the way for top prospect Nick Senzel, who destroyed Double-A pitching this year but is blocked at third by Eugenio Suarez — who has spent plenty of time as a professional at short.

That effectively eliminated the possibility of the Reds trading Cozart at all, leaving general manager Dick Williams and his staff with somewhat of a dilemma. Cozart has played at star level on a per-game basis over the past three seasons — never more so than in 2017 — but has also dealt with injuries in each of those three seasons. The rebuilding Reds, then, are faced with the choice of either letting one of their best players walk as a free agent with no compensation or making a one-year qualifying offer that is reported to be in the $18.1MM range, which would net them draft pick compensation. There’s an argument to be made in favor of either decision.

Those that feel a qualifying offer is too great a risk have an understandable vantage point. Cozart is 32 years old and, assuming he remains healthy through season’s end, will have averaged about 100 games per year over the past three seasons. In that time, he’s been sidelined by a torn ACL, some knee troubles in 2016 and quadriceps issues in 2017. There will also likely be clubs that wonder if this year’s offensive breakout is sustainable; while he’d shown much-improved power in both 2015 and 2016, Cozart’s offensive output has never approached his 2017 levels in the past.

There’s also a lack of contending clubs or expected contenders with clear-cut shortstop needs this offseason, creating the potential for the same limited market the Reds found when seeking trade partners in both 2016 and 2017. And, Cozart has only earned about $12MM in his career, so the prospect of increasing his career earnings by 150 percent in a single season will make it tempting to accept — especially since the new CBA prohibits the team from making a second QO the following offseason.

[Related: Offseason Primer — The New Qualifying Offer Rules]

On the other hand, a one-year deal for Cozart at $18.1MM isn’t necessarily a bad outcome. He’s been worth considerably more than that this season even with his injuries, thanks to his perennially elite defense and his career-best .304/.397/.549 batting line. Cozart’s offensive improvement doesn’t appear to be due entirely to BABIP luck, either. He’s more than doubled his career walk rate (6.4 percent career, 13 percent in 2017), his strikeout rate remains strong (15 percent — well below the league average) and his 31.4 percent hard-hit rate is largely a continuation of last year’s solid pace.

Like many others throughout the league, Cozart has increased his fly-ball rate a bit, and he’s also benefited from a not-outlandish uptick in his 2015-16 homer-to-flyball ratio. The Reds can probably expect some degree of regression in his career-high .324 BABIP, but even a return to his career level of .281 would render the new, ultra-patient and more powerful version of Cozart a decidedly above-average bat. Cozart will enter this offseason as a markedly better offensive producer than J.J. Hardy was when he signed a three-year, $40MM deal to remain with the Orioles at the same age.

There may not be a lengthy list of teams eyeing shortstop upgrades, but there are plenty of clubs that could work Cozart into the mix. The Cardinals could deploy Paul DeJong at third base and play Cozart at shortstop. The D-backs have some uncertainty and were often a speculative Cozart suitor this summer, though they do have Chris Owings and Nick Ahmed both controllable beyond the current campaign. The Padres aren’t contending but have long been seeking stability at shortstop, while the Royals will be on the lookout for an Alcides Escobar replacement. Trevor Story has taken a step back in Colorado. Both Troy Tulowitzki and Devon Travis have injury concerns in Toronto. And, as ever, offseason trades and injuries, will alter every free agent’s market.

Were Cozart to accept, the Reds wouldn’t be able to trade him without his consent until mid-June of 2018. However, he could also once again command interest at the 2018 non-waiver deadline, particularly if he maintains his breakout and the Reds show some willingness to pay any of the contract. (Cincinnati did pay the bulk of Brandon Phillips’ contract this past offseason, and Cozart’s deal almost certainly wouldn’t require the Reds to pay such a significant portion, even at $18.1MM.)

All of that said, I’ll open this up for public input (link to poll for MLBTR app users)…

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Wood had been designated recently by Cincinnati after a pair of dreadful outings. But he certainly has a big arm and some track record of success in the majors.

The Halos will hope that Wood becomes the team’s latest reclamation success — perhaps helping to make up for the absence of David Hernandez, who was dealt away at the deadline. Since, the Angels have managed to climb into the thick of the AL Wild Card race.

Wood, 32, carried a 3.69 ERA until he was lit up on August 11th. Now, just two weeks later, that figure has ballooned all the way to 5.65. But he does still have solid-enough peripherals, with 9.7 K/9 against 4.6 BB/9 along with a 53.6% groundball rate, and still works in the 97 mph range with his heater.

If Wood can prove his worth in Los Angeles, the club may also consider retaining him for the future. He’s earning $1.275MM this year and can be tendered arbitration once more this fall.

• In other Cardinals-focused coverage, Ben Frederickson of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch takes a look at the immediate replacement options for Rosenthal. And his colleague, Derrick Goold, analyzes the organization’s possible September call-ups. GM John Mozeliak says that the organization is rich in upper-level talent that could contribute down the stretch. Goold’s examination goes into great detail on the thought process, and is well worth a read — even for fans of other teams.
• With somewhat less fanfare, for obvious reasons, the Reds also recently lost a key pitcher for the rest of the season: righty Scott Feldman, who required knee surgery. Feldman ended up taking down $4MM in total for his 2017 season, Zach Buchanan of the Cincinnati Enquirer writes — with incentives boosting his $2.3MM base salary. He’ll likely be as affordable, if not moreso, this coming winter, though Feldman did post solid results before his knee started barking. He also seemingly left a good impression, with manager Bryan Price crediting Feldman as “a tremendous competitor, though the skipper also hinted that the organization will be aiming to minimize the health risk in building out its rotation over the winter.
• The Cubs have several relatively unheralded players that could make big contributions down the stretch, ESPNChicago.com’s Jesse Rogers writes. Swingman Mike Montgomery and infielder Tommy La Stella have already made an impact while filling in for injured regulars, Rogers notes, while the team may yet hope for a late charge from struggling relievers Hector Rondon and Justin Wilson.

It’s a bit surprising to see Cincinnati cut ties with Wood, who is eligible for arbitration one final time in 2018 after earning $1.275MM this year. The 32-year-old does carry an ugly 5.65 ERA, but that’s due in large part to the staggering nine earned runs he allowed in his last two outings. (More generally, too, he carries a low strand rate of 62.1% and has been tagged for a lofty .364 BABIP by opposing hitters.) Of course, that pair of disastrous appearances also likely paved the way for today’s move.

Despite the less-than-exciting earned run average, Wood has averaged 9.7 K/9 against 4.6 BB/9 on the year while sporting a 53.6% groundball rate. And he still delivers an upper-nineties heater that could hold appeal to other organizations.

That said, the Reds surely at least looked for takers and perhaps found insufficient interest. And the move makes way for Chacin, a 24-year-old who has steadily risen through the ranks over the past three years and figures to be a bullpen option for 2018 and beyond.

Chacin has spent the entirety of 2017 at Triple-A, posting a 2.60 ERA with 8.2 K/9 and 3.5 BB/9 over 69 1/3 innings in 44 appearances. That multi-inning versatility could give the Reds yet another flexible arm — part of an acknowledged strategy of the organization.

Franklin, 22, was taken in the second round of the 2013 draft. But he has yet to make much progress through the system. Indeed, he has topped out thus far at the High-A level, with tepid numbers all along the way. This year, Franklin has appeared in only 27 A-ball games, posting an ugly .179/.225/.238 batting line.

The trade remains something of an odd one, due largely to Phillips’s no-trade protection and sizable salary. Atlanta took on only $1MM of his salary in the trade, while sending pitchers Andrew McKirahan and Carlos Portuondo to the Reds. Neither of those hurlers has seen much action this year or shown a particular likelihood of contributing at the MLB level.