12:07PM: Rockies right-hander Jon Gray will miss the rest of the season after suffering a left foot fracture, the team announced. Gray has been placed on the 60-day injured list. Colorado purchased the contract of right-hander Tim Melville from Triple-A, and Melville will take Gray’s spot as the starter for today’s game against the Diamondbacks.
The news brings a premature end to what was looking like the best of Gray’s four full MLB seasons, as the 27-year-old had a 3.84 ERA, 2.68 K/BB rate, and an even 9.0 K/9 over 150 innings for the Rox. It was a nice bounce-back from the 5.12 ERA Gray posted in 172 1/3 frames in 2018, though advanced metrics indicated that he was a little unlucky to post such an inflated ERA, while some of his 2019 ERA indicators (4.06 FIP, 3.89 xFIP, 4.35 SIERA) hint at a bit of good fortune this year. Statcast also paints rather a dour picture of Gray’s 2019 work, as he is in the bottom 10 percent of all pitchers in hard-hit ball rate and fastball spin rate, not to mention a below-average xwOBA.
On the plus side, Gray posted a career-best 50.4% grounder rate and he is still one of the game’s hardest throwers, with an average fastball velocity of 96.1 mph. He was also the rare pitcher who actually performed better at Coors Field (3.46 ERA in 75 1/3 IP) than on the road (4.22 ERA in 74 2/3 IP). With 12.6 fWAR accumulated since the start of the 2016 season, Gray has become a generally reliable, if still a touch inconsistent, rotation stalwart, which is no small feat for a homegrown Rockies pitcher.
While he has been pretty durable over his short career, this is the second time Gray has suffered a major left foot injury, as he spent two and a half months on the injured list in 2017 due to a stress fracture. Still, Gray and German Marquez project as the top two members of the Rockies rotation going forward to 2020, as Kyle Freeland and Tyler Anderson have been respectively bedeviled by inconsistency and injuries this season.
Today’s outing will see Melville make his first Major League appearance since September 26, 2017. The 29-year-old tossed 14 2/3 innings for the Reds, Twins, and Padres in 2016-17, and then went onto pitch in the Orioles’ farm system and in independent baseball until inking a minor league contract with the Rockies back in May. Pitching in the hitter-friendly Pacific Coast League, Melville has a 5.42 ERA and 2.2 HR/9 over 96 1/3 innings at Triple-A this season, though with an 8.8 K/9 and 2.35 K/BB rate.
]]>With an immediate need for fresh arms and a longer-term interest in finding cost-efficient relief pitching, it’s no surprise that the Rox made a strike here. Parsons hasn’t quite reached his 27th birthday, has options remaining, and is still a long way from arbitration. It’s possible he’ll be given a chance to pitch his way into the team’s plans for 2020.
If he’s to take advantage of the opportunity, Parsons will need to improve upon his initial showing in Atlanta. He carried a 3.52 ERA through 15 1/3 MLB innings this year, but didn’t get there in style. With 13 walks to go with a dozen strikeouts, along with a lowly 6.9% swinging-strike rate, it was clear that Parsons wasn’t fooling MLB hitters.
That said, there’s still reason to hope for better. Parsons has a history of quality results in the upper minors; this year, at Triple-A, he worked to a 2.86 ERA with 8.6 K/9 and 3.3 BB/9 along with a 56.8% groundball rate. No doubt the Rox are particularly intrigued by the fact that Parsons has typically induced quite a few worm burners and limited the long ball as a minor-leaguer.
]]>The Athletic’s Nick Groke adds that Oberg has undergone a procedure to dissolve the clot, which will likely keep the 29-year-old out of action for the remainder of the season. In Oberg’s absence, Wade Davis will be reinstalled as the Rockies’ closer, a role that he relinquished only about two weeks ago. Oberg also saw his 2016 season end prematurely due to the same issue, which required two surgeries and roughly three months away from baseball activities. He was able to pitch a full season in 2017.
Oberg has quietly established himself as the Rockies’ finest reliever over the last two seasons, a span over which he has posted a cumulative 2.35 ERA in 114 2/3 innings pitched. He’s recorded five saves since supplanting Davis as the Rockies’ ninth-inning man. Following the season, he will be eligible for arbitration for the first time, which should earn him a solid payday for his efforts over the last two years.
Johnson, a 29-year-old righty, will get another crack at the big league level with Oberg sidelined. The former has appeared in 14 games for the Rockies this year, though the results have not been promising. He’s walked 11 batters—more than the 10 he has struck out—in 11 2/3 innings. His Triple-A track record is considerably more impressive, as he’s struck out 12.2 batters per nine innings this season in the Pacific Coast League, which could lend itself to some optimism for Johnson’s potential as a Major League reliever. Of course, he’s had limited exposure at the top level, so there’s time for him to figure it out, and he should have a fine opportunity to do so over the season’s final month and a half.
]]>8:07am: The Rockies are preparing to make a change behind the dish, according to MLB.com’s Thomas Harding. Veteran catcher Chris Iannetta will be removed from the MLB roster — by what immediate mechanism isn’t yet clear — in favor of youngster Dom Nunez, whose contract will be selected.
The 36-year-old Iannetta has struggled with the bat since returning to the Rockies after six seasons away. He’s slashing .222/.311/.417 in 164 plate appearances this year, which translates to a meager 69 wRC+, and his strikeout rate has shot up to a career-worst 32.9%. Iannetta is also grading poorly in the pitch-framing department, an area where he has at times excelled.
It seems rather unlikely that a contender will see fit to claim Iannetta, who is owed the remainder of his $4MM salary along with a $750K buyout on a 2020 club option. (That option includes a vesting provision that is well out of reach and therefore not a factor.) That said, the veteran backstop is sure to draw interest from clubs in need of depth. It’s conceivable he could sign right onto a big-league roster if there’s a club that prefers him to its existing reserve catcher. Otherwise, he’ll likely be looking at minor-league deals.
Iannetta had already yielded the bulk of the action behind the dish to Tony Wolters, who’ll presumably continue to function as a regular. Now, the reserve job will go to Nunez, a former sixth-rounder. Nunez has found another offensive gear this season at Triple-A. Through 257 plate appearances, the 24-year-old is slashing .244/.362/.559 with a career-high 17 home runs. Even in the offensively charged PCL, that’s good for a 114 wRC+.
]]>Some vesting options aren’t reported, so it could be that more players beyond this septet could also be playing towards gaining more guaranteed money or contractual freedom for the 2020 season. For now, let’s examine just these seven names…
Yonder Alonso, Rockies: Under the terms of the two-year, $16MM deal Alonso signed with the Indians in the 2017-18 offseason, his $9MM club option (with a $1MM buyout) for 2020 becomes guaranteed if the first baseman first passes a physical, and then hit plate-appearance benchmarks. Unfortunately for Alonso, he has only 287 PA this season, so he’s on pace to fall well short of reaching either 550 PA in 2019 or 1100 total PA in 2018-19 — either of which would’ve caused his option to vest.
Andrew Cashner, Red Sox: Having struggled through six starts since coming to Boston in a trade from the Orioles, the Sox have a legitimate performance-related reason for moving Cashner out of their rotation. There would also be a financial motive involved, as Cashner’s $10MM club option for 2020 would become guaranteed if he amasses 340 total innings in 2018-19. After today’s abbreviated outing against the Angels, Cashner now has 279 2/3 IP over the last two seasons, putting him within distant range of causing his option to vest if he keeps receiving starts. (Incidentally, the option could also vest into a player option if Cashner hits the 360-inning threshold.)
Sean Doolittle, Nationals: The closer finished his league-high 47th game of the season today, giving him 82 games finished since the start of the 2018 season. Should Doolittle reach 100 games finished, the Nationals’ $6.5MM club option ($500K buyout) on Doolittle for 2020 would vest into a mutual option, giving him the opportunity to opt out of his contract and enter into free agency. This is definitely one to watch down the stretch, since with the Nats in a postseason race and the rest of their bullpen struggling, D.C. won’t hesitate to use their closer for every save situation possible. Manager Davey Martinez has used Doolittle in a traditional late-game role, so shifting him into high-leverage situations outside of the ninth inning to cut down on his games-finished numbers would be a risky (and controversial) tactic, to say the least.
Chris Iannetta, Rockies: With 110 starts at catcher since the beginning of the 2018 season, Iannetta won’t reach the 220 catching starts he needed to convert the Rockies’ $4.25MM club option on his services for 2020 into a guarantee.
Wade LeBlanc, Mariners: The unique extension signed by LeBlanc in July 2018 carried three $5MM club option years for 2020-22 that can all vest into guarantees. That 2020 option turns into guaranteed money if LeBlanc throws 160 innings in 2019 and doesn’t have a left arm injury at season’s end. A month-long IL stint due to an oblique strain earlier this season almost certainly ended LeBlanc’s chance at the 160-inning plateau, as he has only 98 IP thus far. While he’s still eating a good share of innings as a “bulk pitcher” behind an opener in most outings, it seems likely that LeBlanc won’t reach his vesting threshold.
Brandon Morrow, Cubs: Morrow’s two-year, $21MM deal carried a 2020 vesting option worth $12MM, or a $3MM buyout. It wasn’t actually known what the terms were of this option, though since injuries have kept Morrow from pitching since July 15, 2018, it’s safe to assume the option won’t vest, and Morrow will be a free agent this winter.
Oliver Perez, Indians: The veteran southpaw appeared in his 49th game of the season today, so barring injury, he’s a lock to hit the 55 appearances required to guarantee his $2.75MM club option for 2020. He also seems like a pretty safe bet to lock in even more money, as that option will be guaranteed at $3MM if Perez pitches in 60 games. The Tribe likely won’t at all mind having Perez back for another season, as the reliever continues to dominate left-handed batters.
]]>Latest Moves
Earlier Today
Even casual NL West observers are probably aware of Dahl’s lengthy relationship with the injury bug. Though the sweet-swinging outfielder has been touted as a future offensive force since being selected 10th overall by Colorado in 2012, his only trouble has been remaining available. Dahl missed the entire 2017 season with a series of torso injuries, and just this April suffered a “left-side core injury”, that–similar to today’s news–resulted in an IL placement and a recall of the 25-year-old Daza.
That recall resulted in just 19 at-bats for Daza–19 at-bats in which the outfielder looked generally overmatched. Though no timetable has been given for Dahl’s return, it stands to reason that Daza could have a longer opportunity this time to convince skipper Bud Black that the 132 wRC+ he has posted in Triple-A this season is more than smoke and mirrors. Regardless, the All-Star Dahl will likely be missed by a Colorado group that has struggled mightily in recent weeks; their 51-59 record has them in sole possession of the NL West cellar.
]]>10:22pm: Rockies outfielder David Dahl had to be carted off the field Friday after suffering a right ankle injury against the Giants, per Patrick Saunders of the Denver Post. There’s no word yet on the severity of the injury, but Dahl “was clearly in a great amount of pain,” Saunders writes.
Another serious injury to Dahl would be an awful turn of events for a player whom health problems have constantly dogged since the Rockies chose him 10th overall in the 2012 draft. Dahl missed most of the 2013 minor league season with a hamstring injury, and then had to undergo a splenectomy as a minor leaguer in 2015 after an outfield collision. While Dahl did go on to debut in the majors the next season, he missed all of 2017 because of a rib injury and sat out two months last year on account of a broken foot.
When healthy enough to take the field, Dahl has looked like a legitimate building block for the Rockies. The 25-year-old has offered above-average offensive production in each of his seasons and combined for 4.0 fWAR over 918 plate appearances. In a career-high 413 PA and 100 games this year, Dahl has batted .302/.353/.524 (110 wRC+) with 48 extra-base hits (28 doubles, 15 home runs, five triples). He has only garnered mixed reviews in the outfield in 2019, meanwhile, with a combined minus-9 Defensive Runs Saved and a far better plus-1.5 Ultimate Zone Rating divided among all three spots.
]]>This decision represents an acknowledgement of what had long been observable: Davis is struggling badly. The 33-year-old was solid enough last year and at the outset of the current campaign, but has been bombed mercilessly since returning from an oblique injury in early June.
Since his return to action, Davis has allowed twenty earned runs in 17 innings. He’s carrying a 15:10 K/BB ratio and has coughed up five home runs, exhibiting some velocity decline along the way. Over the full course of the season, Davis has shown a decline in his swinging-strike rate (to 11.2% from 15.4% in 2017).
That’s all bad news for a Rockies team that has underperformed despite running its Opening Day payroll up to $145MM. Davis occupies a big chunk of that tally, with a $18MM salary this year. His contract includes a $17MM commitment for 2020 as well as a $1MM buyout on a mutual option for the ensuing campaign.
]]>Harvey, 27, was a 19th-round pick for the Yankees in the 2014 draft. The righty has worked as a reliever in 118 of his 124 professional games, while posting some impressive numbers — a 1.96 ERA, 10.3 K/9, and 2.98 K/BB rate over 170 innings in the minors. This performance, in particular some good numbers at Triple-A over the last two years, earned Harvey his first Major League promotion, and he delivered a 4.50 ERA over 10 relief innings for New York this season.
Despite these solid results, Harvey was something of an expendable piece on the Yankees’ depth chart, and opted to move him for a younger arm with perhaps more long-term upside. Garcia, who just celebrated his 20th birthday on July 22, has a 4.85 ERA, 8.6 K/9, and 2.58 K/BB rate over 200 1/3 minor league innings, none above the A-ball level. Originally signed for a $1MM bonus at the start of the 2016-17 international signing period, Garcia has worked as a starter in 38 of his 42 games in the Rockies’ farm system.
]]>Reynolds’s second stint in Colorado will officially come to a close after a dreadful season in which he has managed an abysmal .170/.290/.311 slash line. While Reynolds has always been strikeout-prone, the problem has come to a head this season: the 35-year-old has struck out 57 times in 162 plate appearances. On the positive side, he has drawn 22 walks in that span, but that hasn’t translated to an above-average on-base percentage. In free agency, Reynolds could earn a minor-league contract with a team that hopes to tap into the power that allowed him to slug 30 home runs just two years ago.
Oh, meanwhile, was designated after undergoing season-ending elbow surgery. He had been playing out the final season of a two-year contract and was slated to reach free agency at season’s end. However, it’s far from a sure thing that he will play again in the Major Leagues. Oh has been rumored to be contemplating a return to the Korean Baseball Organization, where he pitched from 2005-2013. Now 37 years old, Oh has played four seasons in Major League Baseball and has pitched to a 3.31 ERA in 225 2/3 innings.
]]>Oh recently underwent season-ending elbow surgery, so his subtraction from the 40-man roster is a formality. He’s in the final season of his contract and, in all likelihood, will be released in the coming days. Whether he opts for another season in the U.S. is entirely his call, but Oh recently turned 37 and reportedly contemplated returning to South Korea this past offseason.
The 32-year-old Alonso was released by the White Sox after a miserable half season in Chicago but quickly latched on with the Rockies. He’s raked at a .419/.500/.774 clip with two homers, three doubles and a triple in 38 plate appearances down in Albuquerque and will look to bounce back in hopes of securing a big league deal in free agency this winter. Alonso may only have batted .178/.275/.301 in 251 trips to the plate with the ChiSox, but he hit a combined .257/.340/.458 with the A’s, Mariners and Indians across the 2017-18 seasons.
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