We’ll highlight some of the more high-profile cases in separate posts with more in-depth breakdowns, but the majority of today’s dealings will be smaller-scale increases that don’t radically alter a team’s payroll or a player’s trade candidacy. As such, we’ll just run through most of today’s agreements in this post.
I’ve embedded MLBTR’s 2021 Arbitration Tracker in the post (those in the mobile app or viewing on mobile web will want to turn their phones sideways). Our tracker can be sorted by team, by service time and/or by Super Two status, allowing users to check the status on whichever groups of players they like. You can also check out Matt Swartz’s projected arbitration salaries for this year’s class, and we’ll do a quick sentence on each player’s agreement at the bottom of this post as well, with the most recent agreements sitting atop the list.
Today’s Agreements (chronologically, newest to oldest)
[RELATED: MLBTR’s Arbitration Tracker]
Givens joined the Rockies in a trade with the Orioles last August, a time when the Rox were hoping to earn a playoff berth, but the team fell out of contention during the last month of the season. Givens didn’t necessarily help their cause, as he allowed seven earned runs in 9 1/3 innings during his Rockies debut. Between Colorado and Baltimore, Givens finished the season with an acceptable 3.63 ERA/4.31 SIERA and a 26.9 percent strikeout rate across 22 1/3 frames, though a 10.8 percent walk rate and a career-low groundball percentage of 23.2 percent helped lead to his issues.
Since he debuted in the majors in 2015, Givens has pitched to a 3.41 ERA/3.35 SIERA with a 29.1 percent strikeout rate and a 9.4 percent walk rate over 345 1/3 frames. Putting up numbers like those in 2021 would make it easier for Givens to cash in as a free agent next winter.
]]>The 25-year-old Senzatela was an oft-utilized member of the Rockies’ pitching staff for the fourth straight season in 2020, which has been his best campaign to date. Senzatela finished second on the Rockies in starts (12) and innings (73 1/3), paced their starters in ERA (3.44), and notched impressive walk and groundball percentages of 5.9 and 50.8, respectively. However, despite averaging upward of 94 mph on his fastball, Senzatela posted a meager 13.5 percent strikeout rate and did not perform especially well by Statcast’s standards.
The Rockies will be able to control Senzatela through 2023, as he’ll also be eligible for arbitration in each of the next two offseasons.
]]>That’s mostly a function of his contractual status. Gray has five years and sixty-two days of MLB service, meaning he’ll hit free agency at the end of next season. Meanwhile, contending in the NL West will be an uphill battle for the Rockies. The Dodgers are a perennial juggernaut, while the already-contending Padres made a trio of impact additions last month. The Giants also had a decent 2020 season; the Diamondbacks did not, but Arizona has largely the same roster that won 85 games and finished second in the division the year before. As Dan Szymborksi of FanGraphs examined this week, the Rockies look more likely to finish near the bottom of the division than the top.
Colorado projects as a longshot for the postseason, particularly if MLB returns to a five-team-per-league playoff structure in 2021. There’s a case to be made the Rockies should move short-term players for future value. The organization needn’t embark on a full rebuild, but a single year of production from Gray (or Story, for that matter) would probably be worth more to another team than it would to Colorado.
Admittedly, Gray is coming off a dismal season. He pitched just eight games with terrible results before being shut down with inflammation in his throwing shoulder. Gray’s velocity, strikeout and ground ball rates all dropped precipitously from past seasons. He ultimately posted an ERA just under 7.
Yet the former third overall pick looked like a capable mid-rotation starter entering 2020. Over the three prior seasons, Gray pitched to a 4.31 ERA (a deceptively solid mark in the hitters’ haven of Coors Field) across 432.2 innings. In that time, his strikeout (24.2%), walk (7.5%) and ground ball (48.8%) rates were each better than league average. As is, Gray was a productive starting pitcher. There remained some hope the former top prospect could yet emerge as a top-of-the-rotation arm. His fastball was in the mid 90’s and he flashed a pair of swing-and-miss breaking pitches.
After his disastrous 2020, Gray would be a reclamation project. But it’s easy to imagine plenty of contenders having interest in acquiring him. Eight poor starts don’t negate what Gray had achieved in the seasons before. His ending last season on the injured list is a red flag, but it’s notable the Rockies seemingly believe he can return to form this year. Otherwise, it wouldn’t have made sense for the Colorado front office to tender him an arbitration contract, projected in the not-insignificant $6MM range, as they did in November.
There has been no indication the Rockies are actually exploring trades involving Gray this offseason. On paper, though, Colorado looks a reasonable bet to subtract short-term pieces from the major league roster. Gray’s pre-2020 track record and past flashes of high-end raw stuff could entice some teams closer to contention to call the Rockies, particularly in a winter without many obvious rotation upgrades available in free agency.
]]>As such, it’s fair to assume that a “normal” amount of pressure to put a winning — or championship-winning — team on the field will be the same in 2021 as in any usual season, even if 2021 is already looking it may have its own share of abnormality. That means that for managers and executives heading into the last guaranteed year of their contracts, job security will likely be on the line in the coming months.
Thanks to Cot’s Baseball Contracts for information on the various contractual details of team personnel, though this list may not be complete. Some teams don’t publicly reveal contract lengths of managers or front office execs, so it’s possible some of these names might be locked up beyond 2021 whether due to the original terms of their current deals or due to extensions that haven’t been announced.
Astros: Originally signed to a one-year deal with a club option for 2021, Dusty Baker saw Houston exercise that option last summer, lining Baker up for his 24th season running a Major League dugout. Recent comments from Baker indicate that the 71-year-old is taking something of a year-by-year approach to his future, though if the Astros again reach the postseason, one would imagine the team would certainly have interest in retaining Baker for 2022. A longer-term extension seems unlikely, but it wouldn’t be a surprise if at least another club option (or even a mutual option) was tacked onto Baker’s deal to give both sides some flexibility going forward.
Athletics: While major postseason success continues to elude the team, Oakland has reached the playoffs in each of the last three years. This makes six postseason appearances for Melvin in 10 years managing the A’s, and it seems likely the team will discuss another extension for Melvin as he enters the final year of his current contract. While Billy Beane’s possible departure would naturally have a major impact on the Athletics, the likelihood of longtime executive and current GM David Forst taking over the baseball operations department would probably mean that Melvin would be welcomed back.
Blue Jays: Charlie Montoyo is entering the last guaranteed year of his original three-year contract, and the Jays hold a club option on Montoyo’s services for 2022. That option could be exercised to give Montoyo a bit more security as a reward for leading Toronto to the playoffs last year, though expectations are certainly higher for the 2021 team. It should also be noted that there hasn’t yet been any official confirmation that president/CEO Mark Shapiro has signed a new contract with the team after his five-year deal ran out after last season, but last October, Shapiro seemed to imply that a new deal was all but complete.
Braves: After going from interim manager to full-time manager following the 2016 season, Brian Snitker has twice been signed to extensions — most recently last February, when Atlanta turned its 2021 club option on Snitker into a guaranteed year. Snitker has led the Braves to three straight NL East titles and the team fell one game shy of the NL pennant last October, so Snitker seems like a prime candidate for another extension prior to Opening Day.
Diamondbacks: 2020 was an overall disappointing year for a D’Backs team that was aiming for the postseason, but team president/CEO Derrick Hall indicated that the organization wasn’t planning to make any wholesale changes due to the season’s unusual nature. This bodes well for manager Torey Lovullo as he enters the last year of his contract, and it seems possible Arizona could add another year to Lovullo’s deal just so he can avoid lame-duck status.
Mariners: Both GM Jerry Dipoto and manager Scott Servais were in the final year of their contracts when both inked extensions with Seattle in July 2018. The terms of those extensions weren’t known, but 2021 would be the final guaranteed year for both if the extensions were three-year deals like their original contracts, though it’s possible Dipoto and Servais each got more security than just a three-year pact. The Mariners have mostly been in rebuild mode since those extensions were signed, and with the team only starting to deliver on some of the young talent amassed in the farm system, ownership could give Dipoto (and quite possibly Servais) more time to see if they can finally get the M’s back to the playoffs. Considering the previous extensions weren’t announced until midseason, we might not know Dipoto/Servais’ fate for some time — and if the Mariners get off to a particularly disappointing start, changes might be in the offing.
Marlins: One of few holdovers from Jeffrey Loria’s ownership, Don Mattingly was signed to a two-year extension following the 2019 season that contained a club option for 2022. The young Marlins reached the postseason last season, so Mattingly has a good case to at least get his option exercised at some point this year, and another extension could well be discussed if CEO Derek Jeter and GM Kim Ng are satisfied with the team’s progress. It can’t hurt that Ng knows Mattingly well from her past days an assistant general manager with the Yankees and Dodgers.
Mets: The winds of change have swept through the Mets organization this winter, yet Luis Rojas wasn’t affected, as team president Sandy Alderson announced that Rojas will remain in the dugout for 2021. Making the move from quality control coach to manager after Carlos Beltran’s quick resignation last winter, Rojas signed a two-year deal with club options for both 2022 and 2023. Expectations are definitely higher for Rojas under the Steve Cohen regime, but given all of the tumult of the 2020 season, Cohen and Alderson (plus newly-hired GM Jared Porter) seem interested in seeing what they actually have in Rojas before deciding on whether a new manager is required.
Orioles: According to The Athletic’s Dan Connolly, “one industry source said it’s believed” that 2021 is the last guaranteed year of manager Brandon Hyde’s contract, with the club possibly holding a club option for 2022. For that matter, executive VP/general manager Mike Elias didn’t have his contract terms revealed when he was hired in November 2018, so he could also be in his final guaranteed year if he hired Hyde on a similar timeline to his own deal. It doesn’t seem like a change is coming in either the front office or the dugout, as the Orioles are still at least a couple of years away from coming out of a complete rebuild. (Connolly makes the case that Hyde should be retained, as Hyde has had little to work with as manager and deserves a chance to steward an actual competitive roster.)
Rangers: Chris Woodward is entering the last guaranteed year of his deal, with the Rangers holding a club option for 2022. Woodward has a 100-122 record over his first two years in the Texas dugout, and since the team is looking to get younger in 2021, it doesn’t seem like an immediate return to contention is in the cards. If it’ll be a year or two until the Rangers are done with what seems like a mini-rebuild, it’s possible the team might decide to hire a new manager to herald them into something of a new era. Woodward may have to prove himself anew by shepherding this younger talent and keeping the Rangers as competitive as possible while they shuffle the roster.
Rays: Erik Neander’s contract terms aren’t known, and it has been over four years since his promotion to the GM/senior VP of baseball operations position in November 2016. So, if Neander’s new gig came with a five-year contract, it would be up at the end of 2021. He makes the list due to uncertainty over his contractual situation, but it doesn’t seem like Neander and the Rays will be parting company any time soon, especially after the club reached the 2020 World Series. Neander reportedly has no interest in leaving the organization and the Rays turned down the Angels’ request to speak with Neander about their GM opening earlier this offseason.
Reds: 2021 is the last guaranteed year for manager David Bell, with the Reds holding a team option for 2022. On the plus side for Bell, he led the team to the playoffs in 2020, though Cincinnati was swept out of the two-game wild card series without scoring even a single run against Atlanta pitching. The Reds spent a lot of money to build that winning team, yet now seem focused on moving salaries, with Raisel Iglesias dealt to the Angels and such names as Eugenio Suarez and Sonny Gray also coming up in trade talks. It remains to be seen if the Reds are trying to just trim payroll or make more wholesale cuts, and this direction could certainly impact Bell’s future if the club is already thinking rebuild.
Rockies: Now through six full seasons as Colorado’s GM, Jeff Bridich’s contractual status is unknown. Between the Rockies’ struggles over the last two years and the frosty relationship between Bridich and star third baseman Nolan Arenado, it would certainly seem like Bridich will need to get things turned around quickly. However, payroll cuts appear to be on the horizon, and the front office is also dealing with the loss of two-thirds of the analytics department. As has been noted many times in the past, Rockies owner Dick Monfort tends to give his employees lots of opportunities, but if Bridich’s contract is up any time soon, one wonders if Monfort might feel a change is necessary.
Yankees: While no official statement has been made, owner Hal Steinbrenner clearly stated after the season that manager Aaron Boone will be returning in 2021, so it’s safe to assume the Yankees have exercised their club option on Boone. There hasn’t been any buzz about an extension, and until then, there will be plenty of media focus on Boone’s lame-duck status. Boone has a 236-148 record and three postseason appearances in his three seasons as manager, but as always in the Bronx, the focus is on playoff success — the Yankees have only made it as far the ALCS once during Boone’s tenure. Anything short of a World Series appearance could spell the end of Boone’s stint as manager.
]]>More from Queens…
This is a nice payday for the 35-year-old Bard and one few would have expected he’d end up receiving when he signed a minor league contract with the Rox in February. At the time, Bard was coming off a long layoff from Major League Baseball, owing to struggles with injuries and performance. Bard began his career with a flourish in Boston from 2009-11, during which he looked as if he would be a long-term answer at the back of its bullpen. However, Bard severely tailed off after that three-year run, and he was out of the league within a couple of years.
Although he hadn’t pitched in the majors since 2013, Bard earned a spot on the Rockies’ roster and proceeded to enjoy a career renaissance last season. Across 24 2/3 innings, Bard recorded a 3.65 ERA/3.64 FIP with 9.85 K/9, 3.65 BB/9 and a 48.5 percent groundball rate, even recovering the 97 mph fastball velocity that abandoned him during his final two seasons with Boston. Thanks to his perseverance and solid production, Bard earned National League Comeback Player of the Year honors.
]]>Gonzalez will be 29 years old next season coming off a 0.1 bWAR effort in 2020 that spanned six appearances (four of which were starts). The right-hander was tagged with a 6.86 ERA/5.54 FIP in 19 2/3 innings with 7.3 K/9 to 4.6 BB/9. He was non-tendered last week, but returns now with a chance to make the 2021 team. He has an option remaining, which should help him stick with the organization through the 2021 season. The Rockies need as much pitching depth as they can muster.
Gonzalez was a first round draft pick of the Rangers, but an elbow injury sidelined his career. He made it back to the bigs in 2019, making 11 starts for the Rockies with a 5.29 ERA/5.64 FIP. He throws a five-pitch mix on the backbone of a high-spin, 92 mph four-seam fastball.
]]>The remaining money on his contract limits the number of potential suitors, however, making it easy to project Arenado into the Justin-Turner-sized hole currently at third base for the Dodgers. Trading a face-of-the-franchise superstar like Arenado, however, rarely fits as glove-in-hand as it may seem on the surface. Still, the Rockies only have so many ways to cut payroll, if that’s their goal.
They are warming to the idea of moving Trevor Story, per the latest report from the Athletic’s Nick Groke and Eno Sarris. The Colorado front office has long put off the possibility of dealing their star shortstop. Beyond Arenado and Story, however, their two largest contracts on the 2020 payroll belong to Ian Desmond and Charlie Blackmon, both of whom would be difficult to move. Beyond that quartet, there simply aren’t many simple solutions to create more payroll flexibility while bringing back assets.
Story is facing his final season before free agency. For all his talent, however, it’s a complicated time to move a first-division All-Star shortstop like Story. The Indians were quick to put Francisco Lindor at the front of the line, while Didi Gregorius, Marcus Semien, and Ha-Seong Kim from the KBO are attractive alternatives on the free agent market.
On the other hand, taking the risk on one year of Story might be an easier pill to swallow for inquiring teams given the surfeit of peers on the same free agency timeline. Corey Seager, Javier Báez, and Carlos Correa will join Story and Lindor as free agents after 2021 if none are extended.
Unfortunately, the Rockies have fewer and fewer researchers to help the front office make qualified, franchise-altering decisions, writes Groke and Sarris. They lost four of six researchers from their Research and Development team since the end of last season, though it’s important to note that these weren’t employees let go by the organization. And yet, Groke and Sarris provide a relatively grim picture of the Rockies’ current resources, but they are far from the only team in the league dealing with tightened belts and smaller staffs. The full article from the Athletic on the state of affairs in Colorado is well worth a read.
]]>Dahl, 26, registers as something of a surprise non-tender. The former top prospect was due only a very modest raise on last year’s $2.475MM salary, and while he struggled through an awful 2020 season, hitting .183/.222/.247, he’s only a year removed from an All-Star campaign. In 2019, Dahl slashed .302/.353/.524 with 15 big flies, 28 doubles and five triples through 413 plate appearances.
The sky once looked to be the limit for Dahl, the No. 10 overall pick in the 2012 draft. He was universally regarded as a top 100 prospect throughout his minor league career, landing within the top 25 on multiple lists in multiple offseasons. He debuted in 2016 and hit .315/.359/.500 through 236 plate appearances, looking every bit like the star that most anticipated he would become.
Unfortunately for Dahl, injuries have hindered him time and time again. He’s had his spleen removed after suffering a laceration during a violent on-field collision, and he’s since dealt with stress reactions in his rib cage, a fractured foot, a high ankle sprain, multiple back injuries and most recently a shoulder injury. With all of those health concerns, perhaps the Rockies simply didn’t expect they could count on him to remain on the field in 2021, but a salary in the $2.5-2.6MM range doesn’t seem like much of a risk given the upside he carried over his remaining three years of club control.
Wolters, 28, has been a non-tender candidate in each of the past two seasons but hung onto his roster spot despite a lack of production at the plate. Rockies brass clearly has long liked his defensive capabilities, but at this point the club wasn’t willing to give him a raise on top of last year’s $1.9MM salary. Over the past three seasons, Wolters has batted .231/.316/.307. Gonzalez, also 28, has pitched in 20 games (16 starts) for the Rox since 2019 but been roughed up for a 5.66 ERA and 5.62 FIP.
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