We heard earlier about some intriguing possibilities in Cleveland. For the most part, though, things are just starting to get heated up. Here’s some early chatter:
LeMahieu, 30, has seen his offense tail off since winning a batting title in a brilliant 2016 campaign. He’s followed up that .348/.416/.495 effort with a combined .767 OPS and posted an unspectacular .276/.321/.428 slash in 128 games this season despite his hitter-friendly home setting. This year’s 6.4 percent walk rate was his worst since 2014. However, LeMahieu remains a premium defensive second baseman — arguably the game’s best — and he showed career-best power while proving to be a characteristically difficult strikeout for opposing pitchers. His 2016 season will likely go down as a clear career year and a general outlier, but he should still garner interest on multi-year pacts in free agency.
Ottavino, meanwhile, rebounded from some troubling control issues in 2017 (his first season back from Tommy John surgery) to break out as a dominant late-inning force for skipper Bud Black. In 77 2/3 innings, Ottavino turned in a pristine 2.43 ERA. His 36.3 percent strikeout rate checked in eighth among 151 qualified relievers, though it’s worth noting that his 11.7 percent walk rate was the 21st-highest in that same group. Nonetheless, the right-hander’s ability to miss bats and his strong ratings from fielding-independent metrics like FIP (2.74), xFIP (3.13) and SIERA (2.82) should help him to receive multi-year interest in free agency — perhaps as much as a three-year offering.
]]>[Related: Colorado Rockies depth chart]
Parra signed a three-year, $27.5MM with the Rox prior to the 2016 season but struggled throughout most of his time with Colorado. Despite playing in one of the game’s best offensive environments over the past three seasons, Parra posted a .727 OPS with just 23 home runs in 1249 plate appearances as a member of the Rockies. His walk rate deteriorated in the first two seasons of the deal before rebounding in 2018, and his once-elite defensive ratings slipped as well, though they still checked in above league average.
Parra and fellow veteran outfielder Carlos Gonzalez both seem likely to land elsewhere in 2019, leaving cornerstone Charlie Blackmon and young David Dahl as the two locks for the 2019 campaign. Other internal options for the outfield include fleet-footed Raimel Tapia and Noel Cuevas, while Mike Tauchman and Yonathan Daza represent additional depth pieces on the 40-man roster.
]]>“Our understanding is that he has every intention of honoring his contract,” said Bridich. He explains that Oh’s camp informed him that the righty’s “comments to the Korean media were not specifically about 2019,” so much as a general preference to pitch again in the KBO before wrapping up his playing career.
Certainly, that news comes as a relief for the Rox, who stand to control Oh for a reasonable $2.5MM salary. The 36-year-old thrived both before and after a mid-season trade sent him to Colorado from the Blue Jays. He ended the season with a 2.63 ERA over 68 1/3 innings, with a healthy combination of 79 strikeouts and 17 walks.
Despite exhibiting a velocity loss of a full tick on his average fastball, Oh managed to post a strong 14.7% swinging-strike rate. He increased the usage of a fourth pitch (a curve) that he used at the expense of his somewhat diminished heater.
Obviously, it’s always a good thing to have a useful ballplayer under contract at a price that lags his value. And there’s little question that Oh would earn more in free agency were he to return to the open market this fall.
But the need is even more acute for a Rockies organization that has poured money into its bullpen without achieving the desired results. Since the 2015-16 winter, the club has signed Wade Davis ($52MM total guarantee), Jake McGee ($27MM), Bryan Shaw ($27MM), Mike Dunn ($19MM), Greg Holland ($7MM guarantee, $14MM ultimate salary owing to incentives), Jason Motte ($10MM), and Chad Qualls ($6MM).
Overall, there’s little question that the club has not received the output it hoped for from this group. Several players — Davis, McGee, Shaw, and Dunn — remain under contract. While a bounceback or two may still not be too much to ask for, it’s critical that the organization get some cost-efficient, quality pieces in the mix. That’s particularly true given that the organization is already sitting with nearly as much cash on the books (around $130MM with arbitration eligibles included at their projected value) as it did to start the 2018 season (a club record of about $136MM).
]]>In the meantime, a couple of other notes…
These days, teams are generally less willing to go out on a limb with the QO. For one thing, we’ve seen several players decide they’d rather take the sure payday for one season of work than roll the dice on landing a big, multi-year deal. For another, teams have less to gain for their risk under the modified QO rules.
So, where does that leave the Rockies and free-agent-to-be DJ LeMahieu? The 30-year-old has been a steady presence for the Colorado organization, holding down the second base job on a regular basis for the past five seasons.
Defense has always been the calling card for LeMahieu. He has at times graded as one of the best defenders in the sport. And he did so again in 2018, with both DRS and UZR boosting his scores after three years of merely above-average ratings.
While he has produced at about ten percent below league average with the bat in three of the past four seasons, the outlying campaign (2016) saw LeMahieu post a stellar .348/.416/.495 slash. And he was able to drive a career-high 15 balls out of the yard in 2018.
Though his walk rate fell a bit, and LeMahieu ended with only a .321 OBP, it’s worth noting that he managed only a .298 batting average on balls in play. That’d be normal for most players, but DJLM has a long history of carrying much higher numbers. In the majors, his career BABIP is .343. This does seem tied to his dinger boost, as LeMahieu hit far more flyballs (29.5%) than ever before. It’s fair to wonder, then, whether LeMahieu will ever be able to deliver much power while also delivering his core skill — an abundance of solid contact and a lofty batting average — at the plate.
All things considered, it’s not as if LeMahieu doesn’t have his strengths on offense. He’s fourth in all of baseball in batting average over the past four seasons, after all. And the glove is good enough to support him regardless. If you believe UZR, he’s a 2-win player who topped out at 4.4 fWAR in 2016. By measure of DRS-applying rWAR, however, LeMahieu is more a 3-win annual performer who has topped five WAR at his peak.
The Rockies do have some options to fill in. Garrett Hampson has always hit in the minors and had a nice first taste of the majors in 2018. Ryan McMahon has struggled in the bigs but could also be a factor. And top prospect Brendan Rodgers is nearing MLB readiness even as Trevor Story blocks him at shortstop.
Of course, there are loads of second basemen to be found on the market. That hurts LeMahieu’s outlook and makes it likelier he’d accept. Paying him $17.9MM for a single season may be reasonable, in theory, but it’d also severely constrain the club as it seeks other improvements. While the Rockies could land a first-round pick if he rejects it, that’d only occur if LeMahieu secures at least a $50MM contract.
As ever, the decision boils down to what the Rockies believe LeMahieu thinks of his market. If the team expects he’ll reject the QO, issuing it is a no-brainer. If that’s unclear, the question becomes whether the team finds it palatable to imagine him accepting.
There are a lot of factors, but ultimately it’s a yes/no proposition whether to extend the qualifying offer. What do you think the Rockies ought to do? (Poll link for app users.)
]]>“I am a bit exhausted after spending five seasons in Japan and the United States,” said Oh, who pitched for Japan’s Hanshin Tigers in 2014-15, the St. Louis Cardinals in 2016-17 and the Blue Jays and Rockies in 2018. “I feel like I want to return to the KBO while I still have the energy to help the team and pitch in front of home fans. I can’t make this decision alone. I’ll have to speak with my agency about the next season.”
It’s a surprising development for a player who is already under contract at a $2.5MM rate that is modest in the United States but would be a substantial salary in the KBO. Then again, the 36-year-old Oh was the KBO’s premier reliever for nine seasons (2005-13) and has had plenty of success in five years pitching between NPB and MLB, so his career earnings are already substantial. Money likely isn’t the primary motivating factor for him at this point. To that end, Oh acknowledged: “It’s not easy living in a foreign country. … Everything away from the stadium is an extension of competition.”
It’s not clear exactly how a move back to the KBO would come together. Yoo notes that Oh’s former club, the Samsung Lions, still controls his rights in the Korean league, though he quotes a Lions official indicating that he was not aware of Oh’s desire to return until learning of it through the media. That executive, though, said the Lions could “explore different possibilities” with Oh should he pursue a return to South Korea. Oh would also be facing a 72-game suspension after the Korean courts fined him for gambling in a foreign casino (a violation of South Korea’s strict gambling laws), which will likely factor into his decision process.
If Oh does ultimately head back to the KBO, it’d be an unexpected blow for a Rockies club that surrendered a pair of prospects — Forrest Wall and Chad Spanberger — when acquiring his services from the Blue Jays back in a late July trade. Presumably, the Rockies and Oh would come to an agreement that would void the remainder of his contract (as was the case with the Twins and ByungHo Park when he, too, decided to return to Korea), though perhaps some additional financial determinations (e.g. compensation from the Lions) would need to be discussed.
Oh was outstanding both in Toronto and Denver this season, pitching to a combined 2.63 ERA with 10.4 K/9, 2.2 BB/9 and 1.1 HR/9 in 68 1/3 innings of work. That strong bounceback season netted him $500K worth of incentives on top of his $1.75MM base salary and made his 2019 option look to be a considerable bargain for a Rockies bullpen that saw high-priced offseason acquisitions Bryan Shaw and Jake McGee both flounder in the first season of matching three-year, $27MM pacts. Beyond that, Colorado is also slated to lose standout late-inning reliever Adam Ottavino to free agency, making the potential loss of Oh an even greater problem.
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