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Junior Guerra

NL Central Notes: Stearns, Hader, Pirates, Reds

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Let’s take a look at the latest from around the NL Central…

  • “Frankly, at this point, we don’t think too much about that,” Brewers GM David Stearns told Tom Haudricourt of the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel (Twitter video link), MLB.com’s Adam McCalvy, and other reporters when asked what pitchers are currently penciled into the starting rotation.  As usual, the Brew Crew will be flexible as possible in deciding which pitchers start games and how many innings they’ll accumulate, with Stearns citing Brandon Woodruff, Eric Lauer, Adrian Houser, Freddy Peralta, and Corbin Burnes as hurlers with starting experience.  Peralta and Burnes will indeed still get consideration for starting jobs, Stearns said, though both struggled in the role last season.  This isn’t to say that rotation additions couldn’t still be made, and relief help could also come later in the offseason, Stearns said.  Milwaukee had interest in re-signing both free agent Jordan Lyles and the non-tendered Junior Guerra before the two pitchers respectively signed with the Rangers and Diamondbacks.
  • Eyebrows were raised earlier this week at reports that the Brewers were open to trade offers for superstar reliever Josh Hader.  While Stearns didn’t deny the report or dismiss the idea of a Hader deal, he naturally didn’t give any hint about how much desire his club actually had in moving Hader, only saying that “I think we consider him the best reliever in baseball right now.”  Obviously, it would take a major offer to land Hader, who is controlled via arbitration through the 2023 season as a Super Two player.
  • Since Jacob Stallings is the only catcher on the Pirates’ 40-man roster, it isn’t any shock that GM Ben Cherington told media members (including Rob Biertempfel of The Athletic) that the Bucs are looking to upgrade the catching corps “in some ways.”  Biertempfel notes that Cherington was “emphasizing the plural,” meaning that Pittsburgh will look to add multiple catchers for both the big league club and the farm system.
  • With so much action on the free agent market so far, “I personally feel like there’s less trade activity likely to happen at the Winter Meetings than in prior years,” Reds president of baseball operations Dick Williams told the Cincinnati Enquirer’s Bobby Nightengale and other reporters.  “I think that’s the trend and I feel like other baseball front offices…feel like it’s gotten to the point where with all the other stuff that’s going on, it’s a time to continue conversations, but it’s really hard to push things across the finish line from a trade perspective.”  The Reds have already one major free agent splash in signing Mike Moustakas and have been linked to several other big names, though while Williams “would say it’s entirely possible” Cincinnati makes another signing during the Meetings, “there is not one that I would say is likely to happen yet….I don’t have one that is closing in on a physical or something.”

Diamondbacks To Sign Junior Guerra

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The Diamondbacks have agreed to terms with right-hander Junior Guerra on a one-year deal that includes a club option for a second year, first reported by Kyle Lesniewski of Brew Crew Ball and confirmed by Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic. The deal will pay Guerra $2.55MM in 2020 along with a $100K buyout on the club option, making for a $2.65MM overall guarantee, as reported by Nick Piecoro of The Arizona Republic.

Guerra, who had been arbitration-eligible for the first time, was non-tendered by the Brewers, meaning that he will remain under team control for three more years. He had been projected by MLBTR to earn $3.5MM in arbitration.

The 34-year-old Guerra adds another option to the Arizona bullpen, as well as an arm that can provide multiple innings. Guerra emerged as one of Craig Counsell’s most reliable options in the second half of 2019, tossing 83 2/3 innings in 72 games with Milwaukee, including 23 appearances in which he recorded more than three outs.

A converted starter, 2019 marked the first season in which Guerra was deployed as a full-time reliever, and he delivered solid results, logging a 3.55 ERA and 4.52 FIP while striking out 77 batters and walking 36. He’ll join a bullpen that graded out as firmly middle of the road in 2019, providing some much needed depth to Torey Lovullo’s arsenal.

Brewers Non-Tender Travis Shaw, Jimmy Nelson, 3 Others

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The Brewers have non-tendered a host of prominent players, per a club announcement. Third baseman Travis Shaw, righties Junior Guerra and Jimmy Nelson, southpaw Alex Claudio, and infielder Tyler Saladino are all being dropped from the roster.

That’s quite a lot to take in for the Milwaukee faithful. The organization has already seen several major players depart via free agency and will now bid adieu to a host of notable veterans.

There’s some major cost savings to be tabulated here. Shaw ($4.7MM), Guerra ($3.5MM), Nelson ($3.7MM), Claudio ($2.2MM), and Saladino ($1.0MM) were projected by MLBTR to earn a combined $15.1MM.

It’s also a pretty substantial outflow of talent. The club has relied heavily upon several of these players in recent campaigns. And some appeared to be solid values even at the estimated arb price tags.

The Brewers tried to hang onto Shaw, but weren’t able to work out a deal in advance of the deadline. Miserable as his 2019 season was, he was a well-above-average hitter and thirty homer contributor in each of the prior two campaigns.

Guerra and Nelson each provided the Brewers with a lot of good innings over the years. The former had quite a bit of success at times as a starter and was a solid relief contributor last year, though the club obviously felt it could do better for its money. Nelson probably would be the staff ace were it not for major arm injuries.

The Brewers rode Claudio hard last year, putting the groundball-heavy hurler in over half of the team’s games. Pending rule changes requiring every reliever to face three batters may have reduced his appeal, as Claudio was hit hard by righties in 2019. As for Saladino, the team hung on to him for some time but never really found him a niche. He’s coming off of a strong offensive year at Triple-A.

Brewers Move Chase Anderson To Bullpen, Set Rotation

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The Brewers have settled on their Opening Day rotation, and they’ll be placing a good bit of faith in a young core of arms with limited big league experience, as Todd Rosiak of the Milwaukee Journal-Sentinel writes. Veteran Jhoulys Chacin was named the Opening Day starter earlier in camp, and it’s now been confirmed by the team that he’ll be joined by right-handers Corbin Burnes, Brandon Woodruff, Freddy Peralta and Zach Davies. While the 26-year-old Davies has been a presence in the Milwaukee rotation for the past couple of seasons, this will mark the first time that Burnes, Woodruff and to a lesser extent Peralta are penciled in as long-term starters. (Peralta did start 14 games for the Brewers last year but finished the season with a pair of relief outings.)

The decision to sandwich that trio of young arms between Chacin and Davies means that 2018 Opening Day starter Chase Anderson will begin the year in a bullpen role. So, too, will right-hander Junior Guerra, who has started 60 games for the Brewers over the course of the past three seasons.

The decision on Anderson is of particular note given that he signed a two-year, $11.75MM contract in October 2017. He’ll earn $6.5MM this year under the terms of that pact, but the Brewers have a pair of club options on him valued at $8.5MM and $9.5MM, respectively. The shift to the bullpen seemingly makes it less likely that he’d be valued at that price point, though Anderson would remain under club control as an arbitration-eligible player even if next year’s option is bought out, as he won’t have six full seasons of MLB service time.

The Brewers drew some criticism for not doing enough to address their rotation last winter in an offseason that saw them sign both Chacin and Wade Miley (who signed as a free agent with the Astros earlier in the current offseason). This winter, they didn’t make a single big league addition to their rotation, knowing full well that the trio of Burnes, Woodruff and Peralta were now ready for big league roles.

It’s unconventional for a team with World Series aspirations to effectively begin the year auditioning three young starters, as promising as they may be, for long-term rotation roles. But, it’s also not difficult to see why the trio has earned the faith of the front office. Both Burnes and Woodruff have previously carried top 100 prospect billing and found some success in Triple-A despite playing their games there in an awful pitching environment (Colorado Springs). Both pitched well in relief roles at the MLB level last season, with Burnes in particular creating intrigue based on his spin rates (99th percentile in fastball, 89th in curveball) and velocity. Peralta, too, fared well in the hitter-friendly Colorado Springs in addition to turning in a 4.25 ERA (3.72 FIP) in his first 78 1/3 MLB frames.

It should also be noted that this iteration of the rotation is hardly permanent. Top starter Jimmy Nelson is on the mend from 2017 shoulder surgery and is nearing a return to the active roster. It’s also possible that either Anderson or Guerra could work his way back into the fold in the event of an injury or some shaky performance from one of the team’s younger arms. Righties Adrian Houser and Aaron Wilkerson are also on hand as 40-man options in Triple-A. And, as ever, the summer trade market will bear numerous options whom the Brewers could consider should the rotation prove to be an area of definitive need.

Players Avoiding Arbitration: National League

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The deadline for players and teams to exchange arbitration figures passed yesterday at 1pm ET, and there has been a landslide of settlements on one-year deals to avoid an arbitration hearing. We’ll track those settlements from the National League in this post. Once all of the day’s settlements have filtered in, I’ll organize them by division to make them a bit easier to parse.

It’s worth mentioning that the vast majority of teams have adopted a “file and trial” approach to arbitration, meaning that once arbitration figures are exchanged with a player, negotiations on a one-year deal will cease. The two parties may still discuss a multi-year deal after that point, but the majority of players who exchange figures with their team today will head to an arbitration hearing.

As always, all salary projections referenced within this post are courtesy of MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz, and we’ll also be updating our 2019 Arbitration Tracker throughout the day…

Today’s Updates

  • Rounding out contract numbers for the St. Louis Cardinals, Dominic Leone will take home $1.26MM, Chasen Shreve will make $900K, and outfielder Marcell Ozuna will earn $12.25MM in his last season before free agency, per MLB.com’s Mark Feinsand (via Twitter). Ozuna has the most high-impact potential as he looks to rebound from a still-productive season in 2018 that saw his power output hindered at times by a balky shoulder. He still managed 23 home runs and a .280/.325/.433 slash line while playing just about every day outside of a 10-day DL stint late in August.
  • The Diamondbacks came to terms with a slew of players, per Feinsand (via Twitter), including Matt Andriese for $920K, Steven Souza Jr. for $4.125MM, shortstop Nick Ahmed for $3.6625MM, and potential closer Archie Bradley for $1.83MM.
  • The Rockies and starting pitcher Jon Gray have come to an agreement on a $2.935MM deal, per Feinsand (via Twitter). Gray had an up-and-down 2018 that is generally considered to be more promising than the optics of his 5.12 ERA make it seem.
  • The Pirates have come to terms on one-year deals with both of their arbitration eligible players, per Bill Brink of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette. Left fielder Corey Dickerson signs for $8.5MM, and reliever Keone Kela takes home $3.175MM. It’s a small arb class for the Pirates, whose list will grow next season as players like Josh Bell, Jameson Taillon, and Joe Musgrove, among others, reach their first season of eligibility.
  • The Dodgers signed a couple of their remaining arbitration-eligible players yesterday, USA Today’s Bob Nightengale (Twitter links). Utility man Chris Taylor has a $3.5MM deal, while outfield Joc Pederson settled at $5MM.

Earlier Updates

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Brewers Place Eric Thames, Junior Guerra On DL

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The Brewers announced that they’ve placed first baseman/outfielder Eric Thames (right hamstring) and right-hander Junior Guerra (forearm) on the 10-day disabled list. To take their places, the club reinstated left-hander Brent Suter from the DL and recalled infielder Nate Orf from Triple-A Colorado Springs.

Fortunately for Milwaukee, Thames’ injury doesn’t appear to be serious. After he departed their loss to the Pirates early on Friday, Thames told Mason Wittner of MLB.com and other reporters that his ailment isn’t “too bad.” With the All-Star break set to run for most of next week, the short-term loss of Thames shouldn’t be particularly damaging for the Brewers. Although Thames previously missed significant time with a torn thumb ligament, he’ll wrap up his first half with a stellar .250/.344/.556 line and 13 home runs in 183 plate appearances.

It’s unclear how long Guerra will be out, but the location of his injury is ominous. He’s also fresh off the worst performance of his season, having yielded six earned runs on nine hits in four innings on Friday. That aside, it was a successful first half for Guerra, who pitched to a 3.23 ERA with 8.85 K/9 and 3.59 BB/9 in 97 2/3 innings. ERA estimators FIP (3.96), xFIP (4.32) and SIERA (4.22) suggest he was fortunate in terms of run prevention, but each metric still paints Guerra as a useful starter.

Brewers Designate J.J. Hoover

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The Brewers have designated righty J.J. Hoover for assignment, per a club announcement. Milwaukee cleared another roster spot by optioning outfielder Brett Phillips.

These departures will make way for the addition of two new righties to the active roster. Junior Guerra and Jorge Lopez are both coming up to supplement the pitching staff.

[RELATED: Updated Brewers Depth Chart]

Hoover did not make the Milwaukee Opening Day roster out of camp, but was brought up just a week into the season. He ended up coughing up a game-ending home run last night. Even if the Brewers were willing to look past that performance, the club needed fresh arms and evidently decided that Hoover was the most expendable player on the roster.

The move could cost the Brewers the chance to hang onto Hoover, who turned in a solid performance this spring. In his 10 1/3 frames, he allowed just one run on six hits, though he also recorded only five strikeouts. He also filled some useful innings last year for the Diamondbacks, posting a 3.92 ERA with 11.8 K/9 (on a career-high 12.0% swinging-strike rate) and 5.7 BB/9 in 41 1/3 innings.

Instead, the team will give Lopez a shot at helping to bolster a relief unit that has worked more innings than those of all but three other teams. He spent most of 2017 as a swingman at the Double-A level, working to a 4.25 ERA with 9.1 K/9 and 3.3 BB/9. With a background as a starter, Lopez can perhaps offer some length to the Milwaukee pen.

Guerra, meanwhile, is scheduled to start tonight’s game. The 33-year-old struggled last year after his astounding, late-career breakout in 2016. But he turned in a strong showing in camp and a nice first outing at Triple-A. The Brewers would obviously love to see Guerra return to something like the form he showed in ’16, when he ran up a 2.81 ERA in 121 2/3 innings, after watching their rotation limp to a 4.92 ERA through its first dozen collective starts on the season.

Junior Guerra Has Fourth Option Year

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The Brewers have some more flexibility with righty Junior Guerra than had generally been realized, as MLB.com’s Adam McCalvy tweets. Milwaukee GM David Stearns says that the hurler has one option season remaining.

It seems that Guerra was granted an additional option season at some point in the past, though the details aren’t perectly clear. Players presumptively may only be optioned in three seasons, but in certain circumstances will be granted a fourth year. (Of course, whether or not it’s more beneficial to the player or his current team is not always immediately evident.)

Fourth options are given where a player misses all of an option year to due injury or has all three options burned before he has finished his fifth season as a professional. The latter provision seems to apply to Guerra’s unusual background. He appeared in the minors in 2006 and 2008 before reappearing in affiliated ball in 2015, kicking off a series of three campaigns in which he spent time on optional assignment.

In any event, the news means that the Brewers won’t be forced into a tough decision on Guerra’s status, either at the end of camp or during the season. Instead, the club can make its determination on whether and how he’ll be utilized in the majors based upon merit — along with a healthy consideration for the contract situations of other options.

Guerra, 33, struggled to a 5.12 ERA last year after a remarkable breakout effort in 2016. As the Brewers plot their staff for the season to come, he may or may not end up being seen as the best choice to take a rotation spot to open the year. With Wade Miley and Yovani Gallardo among the hurlers battling for jobs in camp, it’s certainly possible that Milwaukee will best be able to preserve its depth by holding Guerra in the minors to open the year.

At this point, the team’s course is hardly clear; indeed, there’s ample speculation about the possibility of acquiring another hurler altogether. But Guerra’s option year adds to the slate of possibilities for the Brewers front office.

Injury Notes: Kipnis, Braun, Guerra, Nate Jones, E-Rod

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The Indians placed second baseman Jason Kipnis on the 10-day disabled list due to a strained right hamstring, the team announced.  This is Kipnis’ second DL stint of the year, as he sprained his right shoulder’s rotator cuff during Spring Training and didn’t take the field until April 21.  These injury problems could explain Kipnis’ uncharacteristically poor numbers — the two-time former All-Star is hitting just .232/.292/.402 over 283 plate appearances.

Here are some more injury updates from around the league…

  • Ryan Braun is again dealing with calf problems, and the Brewers slugger missed Sunday’s game to rest the injury.  Milwaukee skipper Craig Counsell told MLB.com’s Adam McCalvy and other media that the team is hopeful Braun will be able to play in the Brewers’ second-half opener.  The former NL MVP has hit very well (.259/.342/.545 with 10 home runs) when he has been able to play, though Braun has been limited to just 40 games and 161 PA due to two DL stints.
  • The Brewers announced that Junior Guerra has been placed on the 10-day DL with a shin contusion.  The assignment is backdated to yesterday, so Guerra is eligible to return for the Brewers’ fifth game after the All-Star break and he may not wind up missing so much as a start.  Guerra suffered the injury on Friday when he was struck by an Austin Romine line drive.  The righty was a surprise breakout star for Milwaukee’s rotation last season but has struggled to a 4.78 ERA thanks primarily to home runs (13 allowed in just 49 IP) and walks (5.7 BB/9), plus he missed almost all of April and May recovering from a calf strain.
  • White Sox reliever Nate Jones felt discomfort in his right elbow during a flat-ground throwing session on Friday and will be re-evaluated during the All-Star break, Chicago manager Rick Renteria told reporters, including MLB.com’s Scott Merkin.  Jones pitched just 11 2/3 IP out of Chicago’s bullpen this season before going on the DL in late April with right elbow neuritis.  His rehab has already been interrupted by one shutdown in June, and should this latest setback require more time off from throwing, time may be running out for Jones to return to the mound this season.
  • Eduardo Rodriguez pitched well in his final rehab start and is lined up to the Red Sox rotation next Monday, manager John Farrell told the Boston Herald’s Stephen Hewitt and other reporters.  That would make it six and a half weeks after Rodriguez hit the DL after suffering a partial dislocation of his right kneecap.  The southpaw has a strong 3.54 ERA, 9.6 K/9 and 3.10 K/BB rate over 61 innings for the Sox this year.

NL Central Notes: Cubs, Guerra, Reds

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Here’s the latest from around the NL Central…

  • While the Cubs’ trade deadline moves may not reach the blockbuster level of last year’s Aroldis Chapman trade, the team has the resources to make upgrades if necessary, CSN Chicago’s Patrick Mooney writes.  The Cubs’ hot start and their clear need at the back of the bullpen led to the aggressive Chapman move, GM Jed Hoyer said, though it’s still a bit early to say what the most pressing need is for this year’s team.  “You can’t get in a cycle where you’re always doing something for rentals,” Hoyer said.  “But at the same time, every season is sacred and you only have (so many chances).  There are going to be years where things don’t come together, you have injuries, another team runs away with it.  That’s going to happen.  So when you know you’re in a good position, (go for it).”
  • Junior Guerra and the Brewers hope the right-hander can return by the end of May, manager Craig Counsell told MLB.com’s George Van Benko and other reports.  Guerra threw two innings of a simulated game against Class-A hitters on Saturday and is scheduled for a live batting practice on Wednesday in Milwaukee.  Guerra strained his right calf on Opening Day, with initial estimates putting him out of action for at least six weeks, according to Counsell.
  • The Reds’ rebuild is examined by Tyler Kepner of the New York Times, who writes that as part of the process, Cincinnati has spent heavily to upgrade its scouting, analytics, sports science and medical departments.  The Reds, who are the only team to never have a Japanese player on their roster, have also invested in a Pacific Rim scouting department.
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